STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS AND RACIAL HOMICIDE PATTERNS: A LOOK AT THE MULTIPLE DISADVANTAGES IN URBAN AREAS*

This research examines the differential effects of structural conditions on race-specific victim and offender homicide rates in large U.S. cities in 1990. While structural theories of race relations and criminological explanations are reviewed, particular attention is given to those structural theories that highlight racial competition, economic and labor market opportunity, and racial segregation as essential for an examination of racially disaggregated homicide offending. The effects of these and other structural conditions are estimated for four racially distinct homicide offending models—black intraracial, white intraracial, black interracial, and white interracial homicides. The results suggest that the structural conditions that lead to race-specific victim and offender homicide rates differ significantly among the four models. Economic deprivation and local opportunity structures are found to influence significantly the rates of intraracial homicide offending, while racial inequality contributes solely to black interracial homicide rates. In addition, our findings indicate that blacks and whites face different economic and social realities related to economic deprivation and social isolation. The differential impact of these structural conditions and other labor market factors are discussed.     

RACIAL INEQUALITY AND RACIALLY DISAGGREGATED HOMICIDE RATES: AN ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVE THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS*

This research considers the relationship between levels of racial inequality and homicide rates for a sample of 154 U.S. cities. We identfy four causal processes that have been cited in the theoretical literature to explain the link between racial inequality and criminal violence. These diflerent causal explanations imply distinctive relationships between racial inequality and different types of homicide rates disaggregated by the racial characteristics of victims and offenders. Accordingly, we examine the effects of racial inequality on racially disaggregated homicide rates, as well as on total rates. We also introduce factor scales to alleviate the common problem of multicollinearity. Our results reveal significant, positive coefficients for racial inequality in equations predicting total homicide rates and race-specific offending rates. These results offer greatest support for theoretical arguments emphasizing a generalized effect of racial inequality on the offending behavior of residents of metropolitan communities.     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

IMMIGRATION AND CRIME IN AN ERA OF TRANSFORMATION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDES IN SAN DIEGO NEIGHBORHOODS, 1980–2000*

Emerging research associated with the “immigration revitalization” perspective suggests that immigration has been labeled inaccurately as a cause of crime in contemporary society. In fact, crime seems to be unexpectedly low in many communities that exhibit high levels of the following classic indicators of social disorganization: residential instability, ethnic heterogeneity, and immigration. But virtually all research conducted to date has been cross-sectional in nature and therefore unable to demonstrate how the relationship between immigration and crime might covary over time. This limitation is significant, especially because current versions of social disorganization theory posit a dynamic relationship between structural factors and crime that unfolds over time. The current study addresses this issue by exploring the effects of immigration on neighborhood-level homicide trends in the city of San Diego, California, using a combination of racially/ethnically disaggregated homicide victim data and community structural indicators collected for three decennial census periods. Consistent with the revitalization thesis, results show that the increased size of the foreign-born population reduces lethal violence over time. Specifically, we find that neighborhoods with a larger share of immigrants have fewer total, non-Latino White, and Latino homicide victims. More broadly, our findings suggest that social disorganization in heavily immigrant cities might be largely a function of economic deprivation rather than forms of “neighborhood” or “system” stability.     

INDUSTRIAL SHIFT,POLARIZED LABOR MARKETS AND URBAN VIOLENCE: MODELING THE DYNAMICS BETWEEN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND DISAGGREGATED HOMICIDE*

Industrial restructuring marks the removal of a manufacturing and production‐based economy in urban areas, which had served as a catalyst in concentrating disadvantage and polarizing labor markets since the 1970s. Although scholars have established a relationship between concentrated disadvantage — poverty, joblessness, racial residential segregation — and urban violence in cross‐sectional studies, this literature has yet to estimate whether economic restructuring contributed to the change in urban homicide over time. Modeling this relationship requires an analytical strategy that incorporates specific indicators of (race and gender) polarized labor markets, separate from indicators of urban disadvantage, on disaggregated homicides while taking into account the growing dependency of urban cities on formal social control (via police presence and rise in incarceration). In this study I provide a theoretical rationale for linking industrial restructuring to urban homicide. Using a multivariate strategy to capture the shift in labor market forces and disaggregated homicides from 1980 to 1990, I also estimate the impact of this relationship. The results provide evidence of the industrial ship and documents both the decline in Manufacturing jobs for black males and black females and a growth in the service sector opportunities for white males only. I also find that industrial restructuring had a unique impact on disaggregated homicide beyond what has previously been established in cross‐sectional studies.     

INTEGRATING RACE,PLACE AND MOTIVE IN SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION THEORY: LESSONS FROM A COMPARISON OF BLACK AND LATINO HOMICIDE TYPES IN TWO IMMIGRANT DESTINATION CITIES*

In this paper, we examine and compare the impact of social disorganization, including recent immigration, and other predictors on community counts of black and Latino motive‐specific homicides in Miami and San Diego. Homicides for 1985 to 1995 are disaggregated into escalation, intimate, robbery and drug‐related motives. Negative binomial regression models with corrections for spatial autocorrelation demonstrate that there are similarities and differences in effects of social disorganization and other predictors by motive‐specific outcomes, as well as for outcomes across ethnic groups within cities and within ethnic groups across cities. Recent immigration is negatively or not associated with most outcomes. Overall, the study shows the importance of disaggregating homicide data by race/ethnicity and motive and demonstrates that predictions based on existing theories are qualified on local conditions.     

Homicide Trends and Illicit Drug Markets: Exploring Differences Across Time

Ample speculation and some evidence suggests that the decline in homicide rates since the early 1990s was partially attributable to declining levels of drug market activity. This analysis explores that explanation, along with an alternative: the strength of the drug market–lethal violence relationship has weakened over time. We outline several conceptual reasons to expect period‐specific differences in the drug market–homicide relationship. These include the aging of market participants, shifts in the normative and transactional climate of markets, and changes in structural factors affecting the magnitude of the relationship between drug market indicators and homicide rates (such as socioeconomic disadvantage). These arguments are evaluated for a sample of large US cities. The results generally show a pattern of attenuation in the drug market–homicide relationship and lead us to conclude that part of the homicide decline is likely due to a drop in the amount of drug market activity, some of it is attributable to the aging of drug market participants, and some appears to be due to unmeasured factors which may have created a “kinder and gentler” drug market.     

SCOPE AND CONCEPTUAL ISSUES IN TESTING THE RACE–CRIME INVARIANCE THESIS: BLACK,WHITE, AND HISPANIC COMPARISONS*

Our goal in this article is to contribute conceptually and empirically to assessments of the racial invariance hypothesis, which posits that structural disadvantage predicts violent crime in the same way for all racial and ethnic groups. Conceptually, we elucidate the scope of the racial invariance hypothesis and clarify the criteria used for evaluating it. Empirically, we use 1999–2001 averaged arrest data from California and New York to extend analyses of the invariance hypothesis within the context of the scope and definitional issues raised in our conceptual framing—most notably by including Hispanic comparisons with Blacks and Whites, by examining the invariance assumption for homicide as well as the violent crime index, by using discrete as well as composite disadvantage measures, and by using census place localities as the study unit. The mixed findings we report from our comparisons (across Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics; offense types; and type of disadvantage) suggest caution and uncertainty about the notion that structural sources of violence affect racial/ethnic groups in uniform ways. We conclude that the hypothesis should be regarded as provisional, and its scope remains to be established as to whether it applies only under narrow conditions or is a principle of general applicability.     

Putting homicide followed by suicide in context: Do macro‐environmental characteristics impact the odds of committing suicide after homicide?*

Homicide followed by suicide remains an understudied phenomenon in the criminological literature. This is due, in part, to methodological and statistical limitations—much of the extant research includes small samples and has not kept pace with quantitative advances. Moreover, scholarship on homicide–suicide has been focused almost exclusively on individual risk factors, discounting contextual influences. In this study, we examine whether macro‐environmental characteristics affect the odds of suicide after a homicide. We use data on 24,373 homicide and homicide–suicide cases distributed across 3,019 cities and 48 U.S. states from the National Violent Death Reporting System to examine the direct effects of structural factors on the odds of suicide after a homicide; and whether structural characteristics condition the impact of the victim–offender relationship on the odds of homicide–suicide. Hierarchical logistic regression models indicate that macro‐level concentrated disadvantage decreases the odds of homicide–suicide. Furthermore, concentrated disadvantage attenuates the odds of suicide after the homicide of an intimate partner, child, family member, or friend, relative to the killing of a stranger. The findings reveal that researchers should account for the context in which homicide–suicide occurs; failure to do so may unintentionally discount a key correlate of homicide–suicide and artificially inflate the effects of the micro‐environment.     

LOCATING THE VANGUARD IN RISING AND FALLING HOMICIDE RATES ACROSS U.S. CITIES*

This research examines trends in U.S. homicide rates at the city level during the so‐called homicide epidemic in the latter decades of the 20th century. Using spline regression techniques to locate structural breaks in city‐level time series, we model the true trends of homicide rates to identify those cities that exhibited a meaningful boom and bust cycle. We then use Tobit regressions for all cities at risk of experiencing a cycle to estimate unbiased effects of theoretically important predictors on the timing of the phase changes. Our findings reveal that larger cities were more likely to experience an epidemic‐like pattern, and that densely populated cities characterized by high levels of deprivation tended to exhibit the rise and fall in homicide rates earlier than other cities.     

A Qualitative Assessment of Stress Perceptions Among Members of a Homicide Unit

Existing research on stress among police assumes the presence of uniform stressors across job roles and borrows upon generic stress instruments to tap stress types and levels. The present study draws upon interviews with 26 members of a metropolitan homicide unit to provide an inductive vantage point on stress perceptions within a specialized area of policing. We provide evidence that the occupational and organizational forms of stress detailed by these officers are shaped largely by the unique nature of homicide work. Among the unique task-related stressors observed include the complexities of homicide crime scenes, time pressures, cases assignment factors, paperwork demands, and long-term ownership over individual case files. A series of structural issues from both within and outside the police agency are identified as organizational stressors unique to homicide work. We conclude with a proposed theory of homicide investigator stress and implications for future research.     

A Comparative Study of Children and Adult Homicide Rates in the USA and the Major Western Countries 1974–1999: Grounds for Concern?

The aim of this study is to examine the changing patterns of child homicide in the USA and the other 9 major Western countries between 1974 and 1999. On the basis of standardized WHO mortality data, 5-year mean rates of Baby (<1 year), Infant (1–4), Child (5–14), and General Population Rates for Homicide (GPRH) were analyzed for 1974–78 and 1995–99 for the USA and major Western countries. The analysis provided ratios of change for children's homicide between 1974 and 1999 and ratio of ratios between adult' and children's homicide. Over the period USA male Baby homicide rose by 78% and Females 44% with a combined rise in All Children [0–14] homicides of 45%, within the context of a declining adult GPRH. In the 1970s, 3 major Western countries had either higher or similar children's homicide rates to the USA, but by the late 1990s none did. Moreover, between 1974 and 1999, the USA had the biggest rise in Baby (<1) and All Children's deaths, and only France had substantial increases, whereas Baby homicide rates fell significantly in 6 other countries. The findings indicate a worrying deterioration in U.S. child homicides. Possible links with child abuse and explanations for the results are briefly discussed. Urgent case-specific research is required to determine the cause/s for and how to reverse the worsening child homicide situation in the USA.     

Race,Place, and Police-Caused Homicide in U.S. Municipalities

We test structural hypotheses regarding police-caused homicides of minorities. Past research has tested minority threat and community violence hypotheses. The former maintains that relatively large minority populations are subjectively perceived as threats and experience a higher incidence of police-caused homicide than whites do, the latter that higher rates of violent crime among minorities create objective threats that explain these disparities. That research has largely ignored some important issues, including: alternative specifications of the minority threat hypothesis; the place hypothesis, which maintains highly segregated minority populations are perceived as especially threatening by police; and police-caused homicide in the Hispanic population. Using data for large U.S. cities, we conducted total-incidence and group-specific analyses to address these issues. A curvilinear minority threat hypothesis was supported by the Hispanic group-specific findings, whereas the place hypothesis found strong support in both total and group-specific analyses. These results provide new insights into patterns of police-caused homicide.     

HOMICIDE,STRUCTURAL FACTORS,AND THE RACIAL INVARIANCE ASSUMPTION*

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.     

An Empirical Analysis of 30 Years of U.S. Juvenile and Adult Sexual Homicide Offender Data: Race and Age Differences in the Victim–Offender Relationship

Abstract: Little is known about the racial patterns of crimes committed by sexual homicide offenders (SHOs). This study examined race and age influences on victim–offender relationship for juvenile and adult SHOs. A large sample (N = 3868) from the Supplemental Homicide Reports (1976–2005) was used. Analyses of victim–offender patterns included examining victim age effects (child, adolescent, adult, and elderly). The findings revealed several race‐ and age‐based differences. Black offenders were significantly overrepresented in the SHO population. This finding held for juveniles and adults independently. White SHOs were highly likely to kill within their race, “intra‐racially” (range 91–100%) across four victim age categories, whereas Black SHOs killed both intra‐racially (range 24–82%) and inter‐racially (18–76%), with the likelihood of their killing inter‐racially increasing as the age of the victim increased. This study underscores the importance of considering victim–offender racial patterns in sexual murder investigations, and it offers practical implications for offender profiling.     

Spatial patterns of homicide and political legitimacy in Europe*

Political legitimacy, or a state's “right to rule,” has been a concern for philosophers, political scientists, and sociologists for centuries. This paper examines the relationship between European states' level of political legitimacy and violence, as represented by their homicide rate. It is theorized that political illegitimacy affects homicide through deteriorating social institutions of control, violating the rules of reciprocity between the state and citizens, and/or creating an environment of “virtual statelessness” that encourages methods of “self-help.” Focusing on the modernized societies of Europe, where legitimacy may be more important to maintaining order, the present study reveals two important findings: political legitimate states have significantly lower levels of homicide, and high and low homicide rates in Europe are significantly clustered among post-Soviet states (high) and Western Europe (low).     

A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

Temporal regularities in homicide: Cycles,seasons, and autoregression

It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crime (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic approaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregressive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that confusing and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal regularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976–1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autoregression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarify the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and future research are discussed.The data utilized in this study were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data originally were collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Neither the collector of the original data nor the Consortium bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. The authors contributed equally to this article.     

Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three

Building upon and expanding the previous research into structural determinants of homicide, particularly the work of Land, McCall, and Cohen (1990), the current paper introduces a multilevel theoretical framework that outlines the influences of three major structural forces on homicidal violence. The Big Three are poverty/low education, racial composition, and the disruption of family structure. These three factors exert their effects on violence at the following levels: neighborhood/community level, family/social interpersonal level, and individual level. It is shown algebraically how individual-level and aggregate-level effects contribute to the size of regression coefficients in aggregate-level analyses. In the empirical part of the study, the presented theoretical model is tested using county-level data to estimate separate effects of each of the Big Three factors on homicide at two time periods: 1950–1960 and 1995–2005 (chosen to be as far removed from one another as the availability of data allows). All major variables typically used in homicide research are included as statistical controls. The results of analyses show that the effects of the three major structural forces—poverty/low education, race, and divorce rates—on homicide rates in US counties are remarkably strong. Moreover, the effect sizes of each of the Big Three are found to be identical for both time periods despite profound changes in the economic and social situation in the United States over the past half-century. This remarkable stability in the effect sizes implies the stability of homicidal violence in response to certain structural conditions.     

A CROSS‐NATIONAL TEST OF BONGER'S THEORY OF CRIMINALITY AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS*

Using international data for 100 countries, we test two hypotheses derived from Bonger's Marxian theory of crime. The analyses support the hypothesis that the degree of capitalism significantly predicts homicide rates, but they fail to confirm that the de‐moralization of the population (loss of moral feelings for others) mediates the relationship between capitalism and homicide. Although capitalism is not the best predictor among those considered, overall, the results underline the importance of Bonger's ideas because both capitalism and corruption (our indicator of de‐moralization) show reasonably strong relationships with homicide rates and compete with other variables commonly used as predictors of international homicide rates. The results confirm the usefulness of attempting to subject Marxian ideas to positivist, quantitative tests, with an eye to integrating Marxian theories with other mainstream theories, such as institutional anomie theory.