Going South: capitalist crisis,systemic crisis,civilisational crisis

This article argues that the current protracted and severe financial and economic crisis is only one aspect of a larger multidimensional set of simultaneous and interacting crises on a global scale. The article constructs an overarching framework of analysis of this unique conjecture of global crises. The three principal crisis aspects are: an economic crisis of (over) accumulation of capital; a world systemic crisis (which includes a global centre-shift in the locus of production, growth and capital accumulation), and a hegemonic transition (which implies long term changes in global governance structures and institutions); and a worldwide civilisational crisis, situated in the sociohistorical structure itself, encompassing a comprehensive environmental crisis and the consequences of a lack of correspondence and coherence in the material and ideational structures of world order. In these ways, the global system is now `going south'. All three main aspects of the global crisis provoke and require commensurate radical social and political responses and self-protective measures, not only to restore systemic stability but to transform the world system.     

Africa's crisis

Africa in Economic Crisis. Edited by John Ravenhill. London: Macmillan, 1986. Pp.359. £35 and £14.95. ISBN 0 333 37173 9 and 37174 7.

Africa and the International Monetary Fund. Edited by Gerald K. Helleiner. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1986. Pp.277. $10. ISBN 0 939934 61 2.

Strategies for African Development. Edited by Robert J. Berg and Jennifer Seymour Whitaker. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986. Pp.603. £33.50 and £13.50. ISBN 0 520 05784 8 and 05782 1.

World Recession and the Food Crisis in Africa. Edited by Peter Lawrence. London: James Currey, 1986. Pp.314. £25 and £9.95. ISBN 0 85255 309 0 and 304 8.

Food in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Edited by Art Hansen and Della E. McMillan. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner; London: Frances Pinter, 1986. £28.50. Pp.410. ISBN 0 931477 59 X and 58 1 (Rienner)/0 86187 598 2 (Pinter).

Structural Distortions and Adjustment Programmes in the Poor Countries of Africa. By Hartmut Brandt, Ansgar Eussner, Hans Gsanger, Gudrun Lachenmann, Wolfgang Schneider‐Barthold and Wolfgang Zehender. Berlin: German Development Institute, 1985. Pp.377. DM20. ISBN 3 88985 042 1.     

Democracies in crisis

The main contribution of this study is to identify democracies in the world that are at risk of becoming non-democracies. It is hypothesized that if democracies have a low level of legitimacy and have low effectiveness, they are at risk of becoming non-democratic regimes. These types of democracies are called weak democracies. Of the seven democracies that are identified as weak democracies between 2000 and 2010, the weakest of them, Mali, has already fallen. However, looking at the results of this study, it is not surprising that the democratic regime in Mali fell. The other six countries that are identified as weak democracies are Benin, Mongolia, Lesotho, El Salvador, Belize, and Mexico. The democratic regimes in these six weak democracies should be observed in more detail in the future to predict whether they are close to falling and losing their democratic institutions, or whether they will recover and no longer be weak democracies.     

The mexican financial crisis

In the period 1990-93 Mexico's economy experienced expansion and structural change. This was associated with economic opening, market deregulation, and large inflows of foreign capital. Mexico had dealt with the external debt problem through a Brady debt restructuring. This restructuring lowered the financial requirements of the public sector, improved market expectations, and set the stage for a decline in domestic interest rates.

In the early 1990s Mexico attracted fully one-fifth of all capital flows directed into developing countries. These inflows more than financed the current account deficit, and permitted Mexico to expand its official reserve holdings. The portfolio capital inflow bolstered the stock market, which appreciated in value. Mexico's entry into NAFTA provided another reason to be optimistic concerning economic and business prospects.

However, Mexico's external payments position was falling deeper into deficit. By mid-1994 it was possible to observe that the current account in Mexico's balance of payments had shifted further into deficit, and that the high unsustainable level of capital inflow was diminishing. Political violence and assassinations in 1994 caused foreign investors to look more carefully at investment prospects, and steadily rising interest rates in the United States created incentives favoring dollar rather than peso financial instruments. As peso interest rates began to rise, the Mexican government and commercial banks turned to dollar-indexed or outright dollar borrowing. By December 1994 this increased dollar liability position together with a runoff in foreign exchange reserves left Mexico in a difficult liquidity position. The December 20, 1994 devaluation failed to renew confidence in the viability of Mexico's payments position, and two days later the peso was floated. In the early weeks of 1995 a massive Mexican financial assistance package was provided by the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and others.

An analysis of the components of Mexico's GDP and balance of payments suggests that the financial disequilibrium was clearly evident by mid- 1994. Over the period 1993-94 domestic absorption had increased beyond the ability of the economy to sustain it. Parallel to this, the current account deficit had increased beyond the ability of foreign exchange resources to support this deficit. Failure by the government and central bank to take action in the third quarter of 1994 resulted in a runoff of foreign exchange reserves, speculative trading in the financial markets, growing skepticism concerning the viability of existing arrangements. Fiscal and monetary tightening early in 1995 produced an improved financial equilibrium, suggesting that similar action at mid-1994 might have avoided the near debt crisis that manifested itself in December 1994 jand the following weeks.     

The spaces of economic crisis: Asia and the reconfiguration of neo-Marxist crisis theory

Neo-Weberian and Marxist theories of crisis have typically been built around analysis of crisis tendencies in a single industrially developed national economy. While neo-Marxist theories of development have noted various implications of analyses that take seriously the specificities of capitalism in developing countries, there is somewhat less work from neo-Marxist perspectives on theories of crisis. The economic crisis that hit Asia in 1997 has important transnational and subnational dimensions that invite further elaboration of such a neo-Marxist perspective. This article engages such elaboration through critical reconfiguration of Samir Amin’s core-periphery spatial ontology and deployment of this reconfigured ontology to explain specific features of the uneven development of the Asian crisis. Jim Glassman is assistant professor in the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia. His interests are in state theory and the political economy of development in newly industrializing countries of Southeast Asia. He has conducted previous research on industrial development in Thailand, as well as on the economic crisis and structural adjustment in Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia. His current research focuses on populist and nationalist political reactions to the Asian economic crisis. An earlier version of this article was presented at the Global Economic Geography Conference in Singapore, December 1999. The author would like to thank participants in that conference, along with Ruth Berins Collier, Eric Sheppard, and two anonymous SCID reviewers for valuable comments and criticisms. Some of the research for the article was undertaken with the assistance of an Izaak Walton Killam Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia.     

The agricultural crisis in Egypt

The paper probes the historical origins of and current responses to the agricultural problems of Egypt. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that the class structure, the distribution of resources, and the social bases of both Nasser's and Sadat's regime have blocked either the mobilization of the peasantry on the one hand or the provision of decentralized incentives on the other. After a brief assessment of Nasser's land reforms, price policies, and investment strategy, the current responses of changing crop patterns and mechanization are assessed. Such a strategy seems unlikely to succeed, but no other obvious alternative strategy is at hand.     

Analysis of crisis intervention processes

The remediation processes in psychosocial crisis intervention were modeled focusing on cognitive orientation. Frequent observations and subsequent process modeling constitute a novel approach to process research and reveal process-outcome associations. A sample of 40 inpatients who were assigned to treatment in a crisis intervention unit was monitored in order to study the process of crisis intervention. The process data consisted of patients' self-ratings of the variables mood, tension, and cognitive orientation, which were assessed three times a day throughout hospitalization (M = 22.6 days). Linear time series models (vector autoregression) of the process data were computed to describe the prototypical dynamic patterns of the sample. Additionally, the outcome of crisis intervention was evaluated by pre-post questionnaires. Linear trends were found pointing to an improvement of mood, a reduction of tension, and an increase of outward cognitive orientation. Time series modeling showed that, on average, outward cognitive orientation preceded improved mood. The time series models partially predicted the treatment effect, notably the outcome domain "reduction of social anxiety," yet did not predict the domain of symptom reduction. In conclusion, crisis intervention should focus on having patients increasingly engage in outward cognitive orientation in order to stabilize mood, reduce anxiety, and activate their resources.     

The impending crisis in development administration

Two questions are posed about development administration theory and practice. Does it offer apparent, plausible solutions to the recent and current crises of developing countries? Is it based upon a knowledge of the organizational terms and conditions which are necessary to advance human welfare? Current theory and practice are found to be wanting in both respects. An emphasis on comparative institutional analysis is suggested as one potential remedy for these weaknesses.