The International Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict

Abstract

In recent years, the Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) has been politically marginalized. The current Gulf crisis may serve to reinvigorate the ANO as a significant actor in the Middle East. As an organization with its raison d'être rooted in violence, there is a paucity of literature concerning the ANO. It is, therefore, a useful exercise to collect and collate available information to construct a study of this organization.     

Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Primarily, policies are intended to address economic, social and environmental problems. When implementing a policy, any government will be faced with the decision as to what strategy to adopt in order to meet the objectives set out by the policy in the most cost effective way. Several such Policy Implementation Strategies (PIS) may be available, making such a decision not so straightforward. With limited funds available, such a decision has particular importance for budgeting. This paper proposes forecasting PIS effectiveness as a decision support tool. The nature of Structured Analogies (SA) is considered suitable for generating such forecasts. A simpler version of SA, semi-structured analogies (S-SA), where experts do not need to recollect the exact outcome of analogies, is tested. Empirical findings suggest that in the hands of non-experts, the S-SA approach improves forecast accuracy when compared to unaided judgment. Accuracy improves further when forecasts are produced in groups.     

中国与国际秩序笔谈:观念与战略

国际秩序是世界政治中最具全局性、长期性和战略性的重大问题。国际秩序的走向本质上是“世界向何处去”的问题。习近平主席指出:“当今世界处于百年未有之大变局”“人类又一次站在了十字路口。合作还是对抗?开放还是封闭?互利共赢还是零和博弈?如何回答这些问题,关乎各国利益,关乎人类前途和命运。”对此时代之问,追求民族复兴并已深度融入世界的中国,理应做出自己的回答。正值新冠肺炎疫情肆虐、大国竞争加剧、国际秩序“分”“合”未定之际,南京大学亚太发展研究中心会同《国际问题研究》《外交评论》和《国际展望》三本杂志,以“中国与国际秩序”为主题,邀请近二十位学者分别从历史与理论、观念与战略、议题与实践等不同路径和维度尝试进行跨学科、全方位讨论,旨在聚焦中国在国际秩序进程中的地位与作用,思考中国与世界之关系,鉴往知今、展望未来。     

From Medusa Past Kantolo: Testing the Effectiveness of Canada's Enemy-Centric and Population-Centric Counterinsurgency Operational Strategies

Canada's counterinsurgency in Kandahar province, Afghanistan, involved two distinct operational strategies: an initial enemy-centric strategy and, after 2009, a population-centric strategy. Using insurgent-initiated attacks against civilians as a measure for the level of control and security provided by the counterinsurgency, this article tests the effectiveness of these two strategies using a quasi-experimental research design. This article finds that a population-centric counterinsurgency strategy that aimed to provide security to the population rather than destroy the insurgency resulted in the most controlled and secure environment for the civilian population. To the extent that a secure civilian population is important for successful counterinsurgency, the post-2009 population-centric operational strategy of the Canadian Forces, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), and the United States increased the chances of a successful counterinsurgency in Afghanistan.     

论人民调解制度的完善

人民调解作为解决纠纷的软手段,在社会生活中被广泛地应用到纠纷解决过程中。其具有灵活性、民主性、准司法性等特征。然而,随着近年来经济文化及法制进程的发展,人民调解自身的纠纷解决功能弱化,人民调解的认可度、公信度降低。因此急需对人民调解制度从调解的程序、调解员队伍建设等方面予以完善,从而提高大众对人民调解制度的认可度,将人民调解机制解决纠纷的功能充分发挥出来。     

环境与国际关系：一种区域性国际公共产品的视角

后冷战时代,随着传统的军事安全地位的相对下降,全球环境问题正渗透到国际关系领域成为许多国家对外政策的一个重要方面,甚至成为国际冲突中的一个新热点。对于全球环境问题,传统经济学所提出的解决方法并不适用,因此有必要对国际政治经济学中的“国际公共产品”理论进行改造和重构,提出“环境类区域性国际公共产品”的概念。有关国家为了本地区的环境安全而联合起来共同生产和维护环境类区域性国际公共产品将成为一种必然趋势,也必将成为今后国际关系的一个基本特点。     

The Armenian Earthquake of 1988: A Perfect Stage for the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Abstract

Natural disasters can sometimes have a tremendous impact on societies and can even contribute to the outbreak of violent conflicts. The onset of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is usually attributed to the lack of Soviet control over the periphery and the consequent ‘resurgence of ethnicity’. Based on an analysis of how the main political actors in Moscow and the Caucasus framed the 1988 earthquake in Armenia in opposition to each other, this essay shifts the focus from political history to environmental history to argue that the disaster, and the narratives revolving around its origin and meaning, can further explain the exacerbation of the conflict.     

Conflict in MPA programs: A comparison of delivery systems

This article reports the findings from a nationwide survey of MPA directors’ perceptions of their programs’ conflict. The survey explored the directors’ general perceptions of their programs’ conflict and perceptions of conflict associated with thirty programmatic areas. The survey was designed to test commonly held assumptions that programs delivered by political science departments, business schools, and unconventional structures are more conducive to conflict than independent departments and schools of public affairs and administration. The article also explores the relationship between conflict and program effectiveness.     

The Quality of Annual Reporting by Italian Museums: An International Comparison

We study the quality of disclosure and the level of accountability of Italian museums using MPADI2 index (Wei et al. 2008; Botes et al. 2013) on a sample of 13 annual reports which, given the legal status of some entities, encompasses the activity of 93 Italian public and private museums, many of which are within the most visited in Italy and worldwide. The results allow for an international comparison with the annual reports of a panel of USA, UK and European museums which have undergone the same MPADI2 analysis, giving an interesting insight about museum different disclosing practices across countries.     

Strategic Interaction Between Rebels and the State: A Study of the Maoist Conflict in Nepal

The “people's war” in Nepal during 1996–2006, led to two significant outcomes—the elimination of monarchy and political victory for the Maoists. These political outcomes raise important questions about the process of Maoist conflict in Nepal. While several studies on political conflict are concerned about “why” such conflicts happen, I focus on “how” the strategy of conflict unfolded in Nepal. In this article, I argue that strategic interaction between rebels and the state explain why the conflict led to negotiated settlement in Nepal. To discuss the sequence of rebel–state interaction, I introduce a game theoretic model. In addition, I show how territorial control, target selection, and levels of violence used by the rebels in comparison to the state are crucial in understanding the conflict process. The case study in this article analyzes the relevance of rebel–state interaction to reveal micro processes of political conflict and further suggests that negotiation can become an important tactical choice in resolving conflict.     

A National Picture of Prison Downsizing Strategies

Abstract

Many states faced fiscal pressures on their corrections budgets as the country entered a deep recession in 2008. A 2011 survey by the Association of State Correctional Administrators (ASCA) asked corrections officials in all 50 states about changes in correctional facilities, focusing on closures, new facilities, and altering existing facilities as a response to budget pressures. States employed a combination of these strategies. Between fiscal year (FY) 2007–2008 and FY 2011–2012, 148 facilities were closed, 29 new facilities were opened, and 23 states added 22,740 beds to existing facilities, resulting in about a 19,000 net bed reduction overall. Closures did not necessarily appear to be related to fiscal pressures or always related to reductions in the prison population. Despite the Great Recession, correctional funding is still a large part of state expenses and many states’ correctional populations continue to grow.     

A Political Sociology Approach to the Diffusion of Conflict from Chechnya to Dagestan and Ingushetia

This article seeks to foster a better understanding of the diffusion of conflict in the North Caucasus. We argue that diffusion of conflict is a dynamic and adaptive process in which outcomes are shaped by the intersection of three social mechanisms—attribution of similarity, brokerage, and outbidding—and the political, social, and religious contexts. We suggest that a distinction should be made between horizontal and vertical processes of diffusion. We also approach the empirical diffusion of conflict from a different perspective, showing that non-Chechen actors have played a key role in both the diffusion process and its outcomes.     

关于犯罪学文化冲突理论的研究与评价

犯罪学的文化冲突理论历来是与合意论相对立,现已形成学派众多、著名学者云集具有影响力的理论体系。从研究者所使用的核心概念来看,可大体将其划分为规范文化冲突论、价值冲突论和利益冲突论。文化冲突理论家们各具特色研究视角,以及共同关注文化差异、冲突和变迁,为我们描述了一个动态犯罪学的研究框架,他们所得出来的批判性研究结论已成为今天国际司法改革的重要理论依据。     

A Tale of Two Kazakhstans: Sources of Political Cleavage and Conflict in the Post-Soviet Period

Departing from some prominent scholarship on Kazakhstani politics, the author argues that competition between financial–industrial groups over scarce economic and political resources—rather than inter-clan or centre–periphery rivalries—largely determines who gets what, when and how. While clan politics and regional grievances may still influence struggles over the distribution of power and wealth, their importance has diminished in recent years. Instead, observable political conflict has centred around competing financial–industrial groups, which represent the diverse, and at times clashing, interests of Kazakhstan's business and political elites.     

俄罗斯车臣冲突中的法律战研究

狭义的法律战是指发生武装冲突时,特定主体为获取和维护其利益而进行的法律交锋.俄罗斯车臣冲突中,俄罗斯为维护其国家和民族利益,灵活运用国际法,与其交战方围绕统一与独立、人权和人道保护,以及打击恐怖主义等问题进行了多层面的法律斗争.总结其法律战的经验教训,具有积极的现实意义.     

A Critical Political Cosmopolitanism for Conflict De-escalation: The Crimean Example

Abstract

The conflict-prone peninsula of Crimea is again—since its annexation—the theatre of new conflict scenarios. When it comes to understanding the de-escalation and increasing potential of complex hybrid conflicts, theories in international relations are too often trapped in their state-centred perspective. Meanwhile, the role of the individual actor, alone or organised, often remains underestimated as political and moral agent. In this essay, I shed light on a critical yet politically practicable individual-centring notion of cosmopolitanism, which is framed by a set of universal principles and provides alternative insights to conflict de-escalation scenarios in Crimea beyond limiting state-centric paradigms.