Central banks’ communication as reputation management: How the Fed talks under uncertainty

This article advances a reputation‐based account to explain the relative salience that different issues assume in central banks’ communication. Based on an innovative dataset consisting of a corpus of speeches by the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System of the United States (also known as the Fed) delivered from 2006 to 2016, the analysis shows that the most salient issues in the Fed's communication are shaped by reputational concerns about policy reversals. Specifically, when these concerns are higher, the Fed is more likely to focus on issues related to areas where its reputation is weak or not yet established—that is, issues related to credit easing and systemic financial regulation. In contrast, issues related to activities where the Fed's reputation is established are likely to become less salient—that is, issues related to economic activity and inflation. A similar pattern of issue attention is observed when the Fed addresses political audiences compared to other audiences.     

An island apart: A review of the Cyprus problem

This essay both seeks to locate corruption within the current development agenda and to provide a representative overview of the literature, both academic and practitioner, that addresses corruption in this context. The essay provides a background to the study of corruption, and discusses its impact and control in the developmental environment, before following with an annotated selection of representative texts, arranged in the following sections: overview; countries; developmental context and control.     

Critical perspectives on the federal budget deficit debate

While the current political process is adjusting somewhat to the problem of persistently growing federal deficits, the authors, nevertheless, argue that major constitutional and legal changes are needed. The problem is serious and the authors believe that many of the solutions advanced are not likely to be successful. However, they do offer a possible solution of their own. Airing this complex issue should help others understand the problem and the debate about possible alternative solutions.

The organization of this article stresses (1) the federal budget deficit problem, (2) major solutions advanced to meet the problem, and (3) the recommended solution of the authors.     

Financing the capital budget: change and transition

The changes in intergovernmental finance which occurred in the 1980s have impacted the traditional roles of state and local governments in many areas. The changing roles of such governments in the financing of infrastructure and public capital investments have been particularly pronounced. Their growing responsibilities in infrastructure finance has led to an enhanced emphasis on capital budgeting and on developing new initiatives in the capital financing arena. This article explores the impact of such changes on the strategies that are and will, probably, be employed by state and local governments to finance future capital acquisitions in a changing economy and intergovernmental fiscal environment.     

Automatic cost-of-living adjustments and the structural federal budget deficit

The mounting budget deficit is both economically and politically in supportable Projections of the unified federal budget deficit and the structural unified federal budget deficit and the structural deficit and the structural deficit converge in the next few years, indicating that nearly all of the deficit is the result of policy choices.

Efforts to significantly reduce the deficit must focus on the largest componenet of federal spending, entitlements such as social security, federal retirements, and medicare. Entitlements account for 45 percent of federal spending. About two-thirds of the growth in these programs arises from automatic cost of living adjustments (COLAs). Each one percent COLA increase adds $23 billion to the deficit over the next two decades.

It is debated whether COLA restraint should be included in deficit reduction efforts. Advocatesargue that COLAs are a major cause of deficits , tha trestraint is fair after a decade in which benefits grewfaster than in flation and wages, and that restraint improves the solvency of major programs. COLA restraint also reduces the deficit quickly, spread s the burden of deficit reduction over a very large group, and allows nominal benefits to remain at current levels, or even to grow, albeit more slowly. Opponents of restraint argue that COLAs are a fundamental program feature, that COLAs are needed to maintain beneficiaries purchasing power, and that recipients would experience economic hardship if COLAS were reduced.

Common approaches to restrain COLAs emphasize either short-term budget savings or long-term program reform. Past successful efforts to restrain COLAs have been related to ensuring program solvency or ensuring equal treatment of individuals in different programs.Proposals to slow COLA growth to achieve budgetary savings haven ot been successful.

Three types of COLA options seem viable under current economic and political conditions: A one-year COLA freeze, a cap on the COLA at two-thirds the rate of

inflation, and a cap on the COLA at two percentage points less than the rate of inflation. The one-year COLA freeze reduces the deficit most quickly, but produces less savings in the long-run than the other options.

A major attraction of formula reductions in the COLA is that the concept may be extended to other areas of the federal budget and greatly reduce the federal deficit. A plan to limit growth to two percentage points less than in flation on COLAs, other entitlements,national defense, discretionary domestic programs, and income tax indexing would reduce the deficit by one-half by 1990. An overall budget reduction plan based on CCLA restraint may be the only approach left for policy-makers who have exhausted other approaches to reducing the deficit.     

俄罗斯预算制度改革的政治影响分析

作为财政政策工具,政府通过预算分配稀缺资源,实现社会资源在公共部门和私人部门间的配置,向公众提供诸如国防、法律、教育和其他各种形式的公共产品和公共服务;将公共资源在相互竞争的公共需求间进行分配,并根据公共目标的重要性程度确定资源分配的优先顺序;通过预算对不同人群间的利益进行合理分配,促进社会公平的实现;通过预算政策的综合使用,实现经济适度增长、高就业、低通货膨胀率的社会目标。预算就此成为反映政府战略重点和政策优先方向的最重要的施政工具。     

Structural budget deficits in the federal government: A theoretical perspective

Survey data show managerial motivations and behaviors are statistically linked to numerous aspects of computer use in public agencies. Motivations to enhance service quality and work environments seem to be particularly influential in using technology to enhance productivity. Empirical research in public administration should be attentive to individuals’ perceptions regarding the impacts of computers. Normative deliberation, however, is needed to determine the appropriate role of managers.