The Middle East: Learning from the Past

The effort to bring peace to the Middle East has been an almost century long process. Legions of soldiers, politicians, and diplomats have attempted the political equivalent of transmuting dross into gold. They have failed; none more comprehensively than President Bill Clinton and his Middle East interlocutors. Despite personal energy, intelligence, and creativity, U.S. efforts failed. After a stretch of benign/malign neglect, Washington again is venturing into the swamp by sponsoring renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. There are learnable lessons from what has been (mis)managed in the past. The question remains whether the United States will take counsel from them.     

印度锡克教徒在菲律宾的历史与现状

来自印度的锡克教徒移民菲律宾已有百余年的历史。随着一批又一批移民的到来,菲律宾锡克教徒不断增多,锡克教徒群体在形成的同时,锡克教在菲律宾传播开来。他们在菲律宾主要经营商业,以求扎根于当地;还进行各种宗教活动,以传播和继承锡克教文化。但在与印度家乡宗教与文化都截然不同的天主教国家里,锡克教徒作出了一定的调适,以缩小与当地主体民族之间的文化鸿沟。     

菲南和平进程的回顾与思考

为了和平解决菲南穆斯林分离主义问题，菲律宾政府与穆斯林反政府武装“摩洛民族解放阵线”先后签署两个和平协议，与“摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线”也进行了长时间的和平谈判，但仍未实现菲南的和平。原因在于菲律宾政府与穆斯林组织在实现和平的目标方面存在重大分歧；双方已签署的和平协议未能成功实施，削弱了人们对和平进程的信心；此外，也未能形成一个达成和实施和平协议的有利环境。     

美国与伊朗关系研究的新作——读范鸿达博士的《美国与伊朗:曾经的亲密》

随着阿富汗塔利班、伊拉克萨达姆政权的相继倒台和国际“反恐”斗争的不断深入,早被美国列为“邪恶轴心”的伊朗被推到国际政治斗争的前沿,尤其是当今伊朗核危机局势的持续紧张,使美国与伊朗的关系再次成为国际社会关注的焦点。其实,在伊朗巴列维国王时期(1941~1979年),美国和伊朗还保持着非常密切的双边关系,伊朗是美国十分倚重的地区重要盟友,而美国则是伊朗独立和安全的重要保证。针对这一时期美伊关系,国内虽然不乏有论文发表,但是缺乏系统的研究成果,可喜的是,这一不足随着范鸿达博士著的《美国与伊朗:曾经的亲密》一书(社会科学文献出…     

拉丁美洲经济形势

20 0 0年拉丁美洲经济基本步出衰退的阴影 ,各种宏观经济指数明显提高 ,ＧＤＰ平均增长率达到 4 % ,其中墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区达 4 .5% ,南美洲为 3.3%。据国际经济与金融组织预计 ,2 0 0 1年拉美经济有望继续稳步增长。一随着全球经济状况的整体改善 ,2 0 0 0年拉美地区经济形势也大为改善 ,呈现出如下特点 :(一 )经济止跌回升。因受巴西金融动荡的影响 ,拉美经济 1 999年普遍出现衰退 ,经济增长率仅为 0 .3%。 2 0 0 0年拉美经济形势在全球经济状况改善的带动下出现好转 ,大多数国家经济恢复增长势头 ,预计整个拉美地区经济增长率平…     

Regionalism in Asia: Past and Future

In order to predict the future of East Asia in the wake of the 1997-98 financial crisis, Kenneth B. Pyle looks to the region's past for lessons. He assesses East Asia's 'old new orders' and deduces six major lessons from their history that can be applied to the current post-Cold-War interregnum. The region is gaining an unprecedented power to shape its own system and to influence the international order, but its current institutions are built on extremely fragile foundations. The risk is that we are in an age of rising nationalism within the region and the emergence of strategic rivalries, arms races, and competition for limited resources. Finally, in looking at Japan, Pyle predicts that the currently awkward US-Japan alliance will determine the region's stability, despite the fact that Japan will most likely continue to shy away from a proactive role in the area. These lessons lead to the argument that events will drive the region's international relations in the future and that the region must seize this opportunity to create new stabilising institutions.     

苏格兰独立倾向的历史与现状

众所周知，英国的全称是大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国，其中大不列颠包括英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士。作为联合王国的一个重要成员，苏格兰在历史上也曾是一个独立的国家，且与其近邻英格兰冲突不断，导致了一系列血腥战争。18世纪初，苏、英双方都意识到紧密的政治、经济联合会给彼此带来更多的益处，     

改革开放以来的上海朝鲜半岛研究

上海的朝鲜半岛研究,自建国以来的前三十年和后二十余年有很大的不同.70年代末之前的大约三十年间,整个国际问题研究处于不发达和发展迟缓的状态,朝鲜半岛研究也不例外,只有一些零星的研究成果.当时,由于国家在政治上重视亚非拉民族解放运动,上海的有关大学在相关系科开展过一些工作,例如在历史系里设立过亚洲史方向,其中包括朝鲜史,曾经涉及"三一运动"之类的问题;在国际政治系里则在讲授"中华人民共和国对外关系"和"战后国际关系史"等课程时涉及朝鲜战争和日内瓦会议关于朝鲜问题的讨论等.那一时期,上海的有关国际问题研究机构也曾设立过"亚洲组"之类的部门,积累过一些资料,不过总体而言相当有限.     

中韩贸易20年:回顾与展望

中韩建交20年来,两国贸易经历了1992～2001年的快速启动阶段和2002～2012年的高速发展阶段,前一个阶段体现了两个长期隔绝的经济高速增长的邻国在建交之后基于双方直接市场需求而产生的贸易创造效应,后一阶段体现了中国入世后逐步发展为"世界加工厂"基于外部市场需求所产生的贸易创造和贸易转移效应。人们对中韩长期贸易逆差的传统认识存在一定误区,东亚服务外部市场的生产型增长模式才是逆差产生的根源,看待逆差应摒弃重商主义贸易观,更为关注国民福利和公平贸易。中韩FTA将是推动中韩贸易发展的新动力,它的建设虽面临策略选择、农产品贸易和非经济因素的影响,但定会成功。     

Untimely Russia: Hysteresis in Russian-Western Relations over the Past Millennium

This article draws on Pierre Bourdieu's sociology to explain how a lack of fit between a repertoire of bodily practices accumulated through history, on the one hand, (here, Russian habitus) and the field in which it is employed, on the other, (here, diplomacy) can take shape in world politics. Such “hysteresis” provides a longue durée reading that challenges both the realist idea that similar outcomes are due to invariant structures and the constructivist idea that structures “socialize” states. Social stability stems from agency, more specifically, from habitus. Our empirical examples are breaking points in Russian relations with neighbors: the Rus’ and the Eurasian steppe empires (ca. 800–1500), Muscovy's diplomatic interactions with Europe, and Russia's bid to join European international society and situation during the twentieth century. In each case, Moscow's relentless quest for equal status prompted quixotic practices that were often dismissed by Western countries and hampered the security of both parties.     

Supplemental Joint Brainstorming: Navigating Past the Perils of Traditional Bargaining

Though decision makers in many domains use bargaining as their primary approach to negotiation, it has limited efficacy in multi-issue, nonquantifiable transactions. Nevertheless, many negotiators use back-and-forth bargaining rather than other approaches. The author explicates reasons for this choice and describes supplemental joint brainstorming, an innovative strategy to supplement the institutionally-entrenched bargaining approach to negotiation with interest-based negotiation.     

Religious Violence in Judaism: Past and Present

Throughout Jewish history, religious tradition has had a dialectical relationship with violence. Judaism is neither more nor less violent than any other religion. In this essay, however, we offer a comprehensive and integrated survey of the components of Jewish ethos and mythos relating to violence while analyzing and illustrating their development and influence over the course of three millennia, from biblical times to the contemporary Jewish world, particularly in the Jewish State. We analyze the various transformations that Jewish religious violent norms, values, moods, and symbols have undergone, their linkage to ever-changing social and cultural circumstances, their social-political roots and implications, and their relationship to other Jewish traditions. We trace how ancient violent motifs have emerged and have been processed over time, and observe present-day violent behavior in light of these motifs. Along the way, we explicate the dynamics that characterize the tradition of Jewish religious violence and its paradoxical nature. Our argument implies a general theoretical model of religious violence that can be applied in a comparative context: Actors engage in a constant evaluation, selection, and reinterpretation of religious ideas and practices from an ever-growing reservoir and in so doing contribute to that reservoir. Religious tradition is adaptable but it also places limits on the violence agents can justify at any point in time.     

欧元十年回顾

欧元自1999年1月1日作为欧盟11个成员国的法定货币以来,现已成为仅次于美元的国际第二大货币。欧元在投资、经贸、金融等领域发挥了积极重要的作用,但欧元的国际化也存在诸多问题。     

Lessons from the Past: Reassessing the Interwar Disciplinary History of International Relations

This article reconstructs the interwar discourse of international relations among American political scientists and seeks to challenge the orthodox view that the scholarship of this period was essentially idealist in nature. It aims to make a contribution to the growing body of literature devoted to examining the institutional history of international relations. My purpose is to demonstrate that the conventional label of idealism that has been attached to the interwar period of international relations scholarship seriously misrepresents the actual character of the conversation that was being directed toward understanding international politics. By carefully reconstructing the internal discourse of the field, many of the field's long forgotten individuals and ideas are brought back to life. The article concludes by highlighting some of the lessons that the interwar discourse offers to the study of international relations today and argues that this period cannot be construed as idealist.     

中亚五国独立十年:成就与问题

简述中亚五国独立10年来的成就与问题,指出政治基本稳定,体制转轨平稳,但也存在不稳定的因素.坚定社会市场经济改革方向,但改革中问题不少.经济最困难时期已经度过,但仍未完全摆脱危机.社会明显转型,问题较多,处理不好会影响政治稳定.外交成绩卓著.本文还对中亚五国发展前景作了预测.     

Reading jihad: Mapping the shifting themes of Inspire magazine

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s Inspire magazine has received attention within Western academia and media for its role in inspiring and instructing a series of homegrown terrorist attacks. Reporting on the magazine often characterises it as a Western-centric instrument of jihadi discourse. This characterisation, while broadly accurate, is in need of refinement. Using a modified version of Jennifer Attride-Stirling’s method of thematic network analysis, this research visualises and analyses the narrative themes contained within fourteen issues of Inspire magazine. It demonstrates that the magazine’s narrative extends well beyond the Western world. In reality, Inspire’s themes centre not only on the West and its Muslim populations, but on local politics and broader religious issues. The magazine’s thematic focus has also shifted over time—particularly in response to (a) political volatility in the Middle East and North Africa, (b) the killing of prominent jihadists, and (c) the execution of successful individual jihad operations. Throughout these periods of change, Inspire struggled to maintain focus on its anti-Western narrative and proved easily distracted by local issues and the “martyrdom” of Al Qaeda leaders. Understanding Inspire’s thematic landscape and its shifting character prove important in understanding and responding effectively to its jihadi discourse.