External Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Recently, ethnicity has received greater attention from international conflict scholars. This study explores a new aspect of how ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect external state interventions in ethnic conflicts. Here it is hypothesized that states with dominant ethnic groups but still-significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to intervention in ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. A new measure is proposed to capture such variation in ethnic composition more precisely. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that ethnically fractionalized states with dominant ethnic groups are indeed the most likely to intervene in ethnic conflicts. Additionally, the power of the embattled ethnic kin minority, as determined by its settlement patterns in the host state, also increases the likelihood of intervention. Traditional variables like proximity and capability retain statistical significance. However, ethnic variables have the strongest effects on interventions in ethnic conflict.     

Perspectives on Managing Intractable Conflict

The author, a Swedish diplomat with extensive experience in peace-keeping initiatives of the United Nations, focuses on two questions that are prominent in the management of intractable international conflict: (1) the interplay between short-term and long-term interventions; and (2) the growing "tools" that are available to mediators and other peacemakers, and how to judge their effectiveness. This brief essay is an adaptation of the author's informal remarks at the March, 2002 Hewlett Centers meeting in New York City.     

民族冲突研究的独特视角--《武器与民族冲突》介评

冷战结束以来,世界范围内民族冲突(ethnicconflict)的数量明显增多,已成为国际社会面对的一大突出问题,并对一些国家的政局稳定构成了严峻的挑战。同期,国际武器交易也呈现出显著的变化,从某种意义上讲进一步加剧了民族冲突的烈度。美国罗曼与利特菲尔德出版公司2 0 0 1年出版由长期研究冲突管理及和平与冲突等问题的专家约翰·西斯林和弗雷德里克·皮尔逊所著的《武器与民族冲突》①一书,对读者了解当代国际武器交易与民族冲突之间的关系颇有裨益。首先,该书较深入地剖析了民族冲突的起因、发展过程、产生的影响。这两位专家认为,民族(ethn…     

Managing the Transatlantic Gap: The Rise of Spain

Among the many frustrations hampering cooperation between Western allies is the transatlantic gap in defense capabilities. Many analysts find little reason for hope that the gap might close in the near future due to the growing differential in aggregate defense spending between the U.S. and Europe. In recent years, however, Spain set an intriguing precedent for small states entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). Defying economies of scale, Spain used progressive institutions at domestic and international levels along with creative geopolitics to engage both the U.S. and traditional powers in Europe. The result was that Spain, without dramatic increases in defense spending, still managed to narrow the transatlantic gap along vital dimensions. These included increased participation in the development of high-technology defense and aerospace systems as well as a stronger, independent voice in global affairs.     

缅甸民族武装冲突的动力根源

引言缅甸联邦是亚洲最富民族多样性的国家之一,在现代历史上经历了长期的内部民族武装冲突。缅甸联邦作为后殖民时代的现代民族国家,是由前殖民时期独立的民族,即钦族、克钦族、掸族,以及其他来自缅甸本部的民族建立的。     

Refugee Flows,Ethnic Power Relations,and the Spread of Conflict

Why do some refugee flows cause conflict in the host state and others do not? Drawing on bargaining models of war, I argue refugees are especially likely to cause conflict when they alter the host state's ethnic balance of power. More specifically, I explain why multiple informational and commitment problems arise when refugee flows produce a rapid shift in relative power between ethnic groups. As an empirical strategy, I examine a unique controlled comparison made possible by the influx of Kosovar refugees into Albania and Macedonia in 1999 that eliminates over a dozen competing explanations for civil conflict. I then use process tracing to demonstrate how a change in relative power between ethnic groups fostered violence in Macedonia, whereas the preservation of the ethnic balance facilitated a peaceful refugee flow into Albania. This evidence, though tentative, indicates that a refugee flow's effect on the host state's ethnic balance of power can help explain whether the state experiences peace or conflict.     

Rational Choice and Progress in the Study of Ethnic Conflict: A Review Essay

Through an analysis of eight recent books and a number of articles and papers, this article evaluates recent progress in the study of ethnic conflict, including large scale conflicts and episodic riots. Four main approaches have been applied to the study of ethnic conflict: rational choice, constructivism, essentialism, and structuralism (or realism). This evaluation of recent work includes that rational choice has been the least successful of the approaches; its focus on individuals' pursuit of (mainly) material benefits makes it difficult to recognize or to admit the explanatory power of nationalist feelings that do not depend on the prospect of material benefits. Constructivism has been the most influential approach over the past few decades but until recently has suffered from methodological weaknesses that have hindered testing. Essentialism has been out favor for as long as constructivism has been in, but recent methodological improvements have produced strong work that has resurrected this approach. Structuralism is the youngest approach; it is still immature but has already yielded important new insights. Some eclectic approaches are emerging that combine strengths of the latter three approaches; it remains to be seen whether comparable eclecticism will combine rational choice with one or more of the others.

Daniel L. Byman, Keeping the Peace: Lasting Solutions to Ethnic Conflicts (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002).

Donald L. Horowitz, The Deadly Ethnic Riot(Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001).

Stuart J. Kaufman, Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2001).

Roger D. Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002).

Monica Duffy Toft, The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003).

Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002).

Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001).

Steven I. Wilkinson, Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).     

The Effects of Oil Production and Ethnic Representation on Violent Conflict in Nigeria: A Mixed-Methods Approach

A large qualitative literature on violent conflict in Nigeria has identified the importance of oil production and ethnicity as salient factors in understanding violence, especially in the oil-rich Niger Delta. This resonates with the broader literature on natural resources, ethnic exclusion, and conflict. This article advances existing research by providing the first highly disaggregated statistical analysis of oil, ethnicity, and violence for Nigerian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We test whether oil production in a weak state environment, and local groups’ access to governmental power, affect the level of violence in Nigeria. We employ unique disaggregated data on violent conflict events, proprietary data on oil production, and newly collected information on local ethnic groups’ access to the federal government for 774 LGAs. We find strong evidence that LGAs with oil infrastructure experience significantly more violence than others, while access to the federal government significantly reduces violence. We complement these findings with a qualitative investigation of violent conflicts in Nigeria.     

马其顿的民族冲突

今年2月末,前南斯拉夫联邦成员之一的马其顿的阿尔巴尼亚族与科索沃阿族内外勾结发动武装叛乱,马政府出兵镇压,战火从科马边境地区的塔努舍夫奇村蔓延至首都斯科普里附近,马一度濒临内战边缘。在西方国家干预下,马、阿两族政党代表虽几度谈判,但终因双方分歧严重而无法达成妥协,冲突仍然不断。8月13日,双方谈判取得突破性进展,马、阿两族政党代表签署和平协议,声明愿意结束已持续近6个月的马其顿冲突。但分析家指出,马其顿能否真正实现和平令人怀疑,国家统一前景也并不乐观。     

俄格冲突剖析

2008年8月发生的俄格军事冲突有着复杂的历史、现实和地缘政治等多种原因,现今深层次因素是俄美在高加索和中亚地带的角力与博弈。冲突及其引起的国际反应表明,俄罗斯已有足够的政治影响力和军事实力在高加索和中亚地区发挥其传统作用。俄格冲突对独联体今后的发展、对俄格双方与北约的关系、对俄欧及俄美关系都将产生广泛而深远的影响。     

Competition≠Conflict

Fu: The above discussions clearly show that the cooled relations between the United States and Russia lie in the basic factor that the political development in Russia has failed to meet American wishes. The catalytic factor of such relations probably could be found in the issues of strategic competition that confirm with "the cold peace. " Of course, we may discuss whether on earth there is such a competition. If there is,then what are Russia's conditions and considerations in the competition? The competitions between America and Russia are different from that between the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War years, but they can also be seen in geostrategic competition as well as in the means of strategic competition.     

巴以冲突剖析

阿拉伯国家与以色列之间的冲突从1948年第一次中东战争算起,已延续54年。其间还曾爆发三次战争。大国对中东的争夺是该问题产生并长期得不到解决的重要原因。巴勒斯坦问题是阿以冲突的核心。因巴以分歧严重,特别是美国偏袒以色列,不能公正调解,致使双方至今未能实现和解,     

俄乌冲突下的乌克兰经济

乌克兰自独立后的25年来,经济增长停滞和衰退是常态表现。2013²015年的政局动荡和俄乌冲突,更使乌克兰的社会经济状况陷入了前所未有的深度危机:投资环境极度恶化;财政亏空、欠发工资使居民生活水平大幅下降;社会紧张对立局势蔓延。摆脱困境的出路首选要放弃依赖初级产品出口型经济;要深入和完善私有化体制改革;要扩大财政收入渠道和防止国有资产进一步流失;要调整产业结构和加快市场化改革,减少腐败和行政干扰。要恢复全民信心和树立全球威望创造良好的金融和投资环境,团结东西部地区民族一道摆脱困境尤其重要。     

New Event Data in Conflict Research

This paper first presents an overview of data on 390 international crises, which incorporate 826 foreign policy crises, from the end of 1918 to the end of 1988.

A set of crisis profiles is then constructed for the two superpowers of the post‐World War II era, and for three regional systems, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The data on international crises are presented in terms of a common format for the regional profiles, with slight modifications for the superpowers, in order to facilitate comparisons: time and space; duration; onset; threat; behavior; severity of violence; US/USSR activity; global organization involvement; and outcome. Within these categories, distributions are noted for each of the polarity structures—multipolarity (1918–39), bipolarity (1945–62), and polycentrism (1963–1988). Thereafter, comparisons are made between US and USSR crises (after World War II), and among the three regional profiles.

The central thrust of the findings from these profiles is clear: they focus attention on the dual characteristics of twentieth century crises, their pervasiveness and diversity. These traits, in turn, make much more difficult the task of constructing a theory that provides a systematic explanation of interstate crisis from onset to termination. Complex reality imposes an intolerable burden on the search for necessary and sufficient conditions of crisis. In positive terms, it leads to a shift in focus, from ‘necessary and sufficient’ to the “most likely” conditions as the most credible path to theory.