External Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Recently, ethnicity has received greater attention from international conflict scholars. This study explores a new aspect of how ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect external state interventions in ethnic conflicts. Here it is hypothesized that states with dominant ethnic groups but still-significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to intervention in ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. A new measure is proposed to capture such variation in ethnic composition more precisely. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that ethnically fractionalized states with dominant ethnic groups are indeed the most likely to intervene in ethnic conflicts. Additionally, the power of the embattled ethnic kin minority, as determined by its settlement patterns in the host state, also increases the likelihood of intervention. Traditional variables like proximity and capability retain statistical significance. However, ethnic variables have the strongest effects on interventions in ethnic conflict.     

Sustained Dialogue in Managing Intractable Conflict

In the warn-torn new nation of Tajikistan, the author has been part of a five-stage dialogue for peace since 1993. The focus of the dialogue has been on transforming relationships and changing relationship dynamics so that this intractable conflict can be addressed positively. The author briefly describes this multilevel peace process both historically and substantively. He also discusses the continual process of evaluation of the Inter-Tajik dialogue effort as well as focuses on a series of questions that apply to intractable conflicts in general.     

Perspectives on Managing Intractable Conflict

The author, a Swedish diplomat with extensive experience in peace-keeping initiatives of the United Nations, focuses on two questions that are prominent in the management of intractable international conflict: (1) the interplay between short-term and long-term interventions; and (2) the growing "tools" that are available to mediators and other peacemakers, and how to judge their effectiveness. This brief essay is an adaptation of the author's informal remarks at the March, 2002 Hewlett Centers meeting in New York City.     

Ethnic Conflict and the New Legalism in China

In October 2014, the Chinese Communist Party committed to the establishment of a “socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics.” Since then a group of Chinese political elites that we refer to as new legalists has been calling for ethnic conflict to be managed in accordance with the rule of law. This article finds that the deeply embedded and highly politicized problem of ethnic conflict in China lends credence to the legalist position that new law-based approaches are needed, although a number of practical problems arise when attempting to strengthen the rule of law. There are for instance powerful factions in the country supporting the continuation of repressive policies or selective ethnic preferentialism, and there are relatively low levels of legal awareness in ethnic-minority communities and general inadequacies in the Chinese legal system. We argue that an elite group of new legalists in China is attempting to reshape ethnic-minority policy in order to break free from the everyday protean politics of ethnic relations that is based largely on a negative cycle of violent confrontation and financial compensation.     

民族冲突研究的独特视角--《武器与民族冲突》介评

冷战结束以来,世界范围内民族冲突(ethnicconflict)的数量明显增多,已成为国际社会面对的一大突出问题,并对一些国家的政局稳定构成了严峻的挑战。同期,国际武器交易也呈现出显著的变化,从某种意义上讲进一步加剧了民族冲突的烈度。美国罗曼与利特菲尔德出版公司2 0 0 1年出版由长期研究冲突管理及和平与冲突等问题的专家约翰·西斯林和弗雷德里克·皮尔逊所著的《武器与民族冲突》①一书,对读者了解当代国际武器交易与民族冲突之间的关系颇有裨益。首先,该书较深入地剖析了民族冲突的起因、发展过程、产生的影响。这两位专家认为,民族(ethn…     

缅甸民族武装冲突的动力根源

引言缅甸联邦是亚洲最富民族多样性的国家之一,在现代历史上经历了长期的内部民族武装冲突。缅甸联邦作为后殖民时代的现代民族国家,是由前殖民时期独立的民族,即钦族、克钦族、掸族,以及其他来自缅甸本部的民族建立的。这些民族原则上有权各自从英国统治下获得独立,并建立各自的民族国家。然而,它们依据自愿加入、政治平等、邦内事务自治等原则,在1947年2月12日签署了《彬龙协议》,决定建立一个联邦,它们希望在缅甸联邦非集权的体制下实行各邦自治。     

Managing the Transatlantic Gap: The Rise of Spain

Among the many frustrations hampering cooperation between Western allies is the transatlantic gap in defense capabilities. Many analysts find little reason for hope that the gap might close in the near future due to the growing differential in aggregate defense spending between the U.S. and Europe. In recent years, however, Spain set an intriguing precedent for small states entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). Defying economies of scale, Spain used progressive institutions at domestic and international levels along with creative geopolitics to engage both the U.S. and traditional powers in Europe. The result was that Spain, without dramatic increases in defense spending, still managed to narrow the transatlantic gap along vital dimensions. These included increased participation in the development of high-technology defense and aerospace systems as well as a stronger, independent voice in global affairs.     

NGOs and Ethnic Conflict: Lessons from the Work of the Project on Ethnic Relations in the Balkans

This article examines the impact of nongovernmental organization-sponsored contact and communication on fostering peaceful solutions to ethnic conflict via case studies of the activities of the Project on Ethnic Relations (PER) in Romania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Serbia. It explores five operational principles that guide PER activity: creating credible, neutral forums for dialogue; maintaining momentum; working within political realities; encouraging indigenous solutions from within existing processes; and acting with the backing of powerful states. These principles explain PER's success as a "weak mediator" of ethnic conflicts. According to this analysis, PER also exhibits organizational characteristics that contribute to success, including nonpartisanship, area expertise and extensive networks of local contacts, and an ability to secure the trust of local actors.
A significant indicator of the success of PER activities is the establishment by conflicting parties of institutionalized mechanisms for addressing their differences. Contrary to the view that electoral competition contributes to conflict, this study finds that the possibility of achieving an electoral advantage by participating cooperatively in conflict resolution activities creates incentives for local actors to recognize opportunities offered by PER activities and leads local actors to heed PER's advice. Finally, the article offers a cautionary observation. While PER's perceived influence with major international actors may contribute to its local successes, once a state actor with the power to impose a solution has committed itself to ending a conflict, its preferences outweigh any local interests in determining the outcome and renders the efforts of a "weak mediator" such as PER irrelevant.     

Local Public Goods Expenditure and Ethnic Conflict: Evidence from China

Abstract

Few civil-conflict studies explore the role played by subnational-level governments, especially the impact of their providing public goods. In this paper, I argue that local governments can mitigate the risk of ethnic conflicts by increasing their provision of public goods. I situate this argument in the context of ongoing ethnic conflicts in Xinjiang, China. With a new data set of 105 ethnic conflicts in Xinjiang between 1997 and 2005, this study finds that counties with higher government spending on education were significantly less likely to experience conflicts. The results are robust to a wide range of robustness checks.     

Religion as a Factor in Ethnic Conflict: Kashmir and Indian Foreign Policy

ABSTRACT

Ethnic conflicts with a strong religious component do not have merely domestic or foreign causes and consequences. As a result, internationalization of ethnic conflict has become an important subject of inquiry both in terms of pure research and policy-oriented studies. This article presents a case study of Indian-Pakistani relations over Kashmir, used to evaluate the role of religion and the explanatory power of the approach presented here. The aim of the study is to apply a foreign policy approach that simultaneously incorporates domestic and external factors in an analysis of how and in what ways religious elements of the Kashmir question affect India's foreign policy. The approach, an application of “systemism,” contributes to current developments in the realist school of international relations through its emphasis on the need to look at both international and state levels in combination. Earlier applications of realism, as both neotraditional and structural realism clearly demonstrate, tend to remain restricted to one level or the other. In this approach, a religious dynamic can have a domestic source yet be effectively examined in terms of international ramifications.     

Rational Choice and Progress in the Study of Ethnic Conflict: A Review Essay

Through an analysis of eight recent books and a number of articles and papers, this article evaluates recent progress in the study of ethnic conflict, including large scale conflicts and episodic riots. Four main approaches have been applied to the study of ethnic conflict: rational choice, constructivism, essentialism, and structuralism (or realism). This evaluation of recent work includes that rational choice has been the least successful of the approaches; its focus on individuals' pursuit of (mainly) material benefits makes it difficult to recognize or to admit the explanatory power of nationalist feelings that do not depend on the prospect of material benefits. Constructivism has been the most influential approach over the past few decades but until recently has suffered from methodological weaknesses that have hindered testing. Essentialism has been out favor for as long as constructivism has been in, but recent methodological improvements have produced strong work that has resurrected this approach. Structuralism is the youngest approach; it is still immature but has already yielded important new insights. Some eclectic approaches are emerging that combine strengths of the latter three approaches; it remains to be seen whether comparable eclecticism will combine rational choice with one or more of the others.

Daniel L. Byman, Keeping the Peace: Lasting Solutions to Ethnic Conflicts (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002).

Donald L. Horowitz, The Deadly Ethnic Riot(Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001).

Stuart J. Kaufman, Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2001).

Roger D. Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002).

Monica Duffy Toft, The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003).

Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002).

Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001).

Steven I. Wilkinson, Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).     

Refugee Flows,Ethnic Power Relations,and the Spread of Conflict

Why do some refugee flows cause conflict in the host state and others do not? Drawing on bargaining models of war, I argue refugees are especially likely to cause conflict when they alter the host state's ethnic balance of power. More specifically, I explain why multiple informational and commitment problems arise when refugee flows produce a rapid shift in relative power between ethnic groups. As an empirical strategy, I examine a unique controlled comparison made possible by the influx of Kosovar refugees into Albania and Macedonia in 1999 that eliminates over a dozen competing explanations for civil conflict. I then use process tracing to demonstrate how a change in relative power between ethnic groups fostered violence in Macedonia, whereas the preservation of the ethnic balance facilitated a peaceful refugee flow into Albania. This evidence, though tentative, indicates that a refugee flow's effect on the host state's ethnic balance of power can help explain whether the state experiences peace or conflict.     

The Effects of Oil Production and Ethnic Representation on Violent Conflict in Nigeria: A Mixed-Methods Approach

A large qualitative literature on violent conflict in Nigeria has identified the importance of oil production and ethnicity as salient factors in understanding violence, especially in the oil-rich Niger Delta. This resonates with the broader literature on natural resources, ethnic exclusion, and conflict. This article advances existing research by providing the first highly disaggregated statistical analysis of oil, ethnicity, and violence for Nigerian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We test whether oil production in a weak state environment, and local groups’ access to governmental power, affect the level of violence in Nigeria. We employ unique disaggregated data on violent conflict events, proprietary data on oil production, and newly collected information on local ethnic groups’ access to the federal government for 774 LGAs. We find strong evidence that LGAs with oil infrastructure experience significantly more violence than others, while access to the federal government significantly reduces violence. We complement these findings with a qualitative investigation of violent conflicts in Nigeria.     

马其顿的民族冲突

今年2月末,前南斯拉夫联邦成员之一的马其顿的阿尔巴尼亚族与科索沃阿族内外勾结发动武装叛乱,马政府出兵镇压,战火从科马边境地区的塔努舍夫奇村蔓延至首都斯科普里附近,马一度濒临内战边缘。在西方国家干预下,马、阿两族政党代表虽几度谈判,但终因双方分歧严重而无法达成妥协,冲突仍然不断。8月13日,双方谈判取得突破性进展,马、阿两族政党代表签署和平协议,声明愿意结束已持续近6个月的马其顿冲突。但分析家指出,马其顿能否真正实现和平令人怀疑,国家统一前景也并不乐观。     

俄格冲突剖析

2008年8月发生的俄格军事冲突有着复杂的历史、现实和地缘政治等多种原因，现今深层次因素是俄美在高加索和中亚地带的角力与博弈。冲突及其引起的国际反应表明，俄罗斯已有足够的政治影响力和军事实力在高加索和中亚地区发挥其传统作用。俄格冲突对独联体今后的发展、对俄格双方与北约的关系、对俄欧及俄美关系都将产生广泛而深远的影响。