Book Review: Troubled Talk and Talking Cures: From “Smart Talk” to Wise Conversations

Interpersonal communication is widely viewed as both a source of conflict in many social relationships and a cure-all for resolving such conflict. Some theorists assert that we simply do not interact, or talk, enough in modern society; others point out that our communication styles seem increasingly argumentative, exclude important potential contributors, or are strategically facile but shallow. The author discusses the various forms of dysfunctional talk in which people engage, then reviews four recent books, all of which focus (at least in part) on how we might talk (and negotiate) with one another more constructively: Bargaining for Advantage, by G. Richard Shell; Winning 'Em Over, by Jay C. Conger; Difficult Conversations, by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton and Sheila Heen; and The Magic of Dialogue by Daniel Yankelovich.     

"New Wars" and Rumors of "New Wars"

Recently, there has been a growing tendency to suggest "new" classes of wars that are presumably different from all wars we have known and studied. In this article, we discuss the extent to which the landscape of armed conflict has changed so dramatically that it has necessitated a revision of the prevalent typology of war, a reconsideration of the correlates of war, and a reconceptualization of the theoretical assumptions regarding the etiology of war. While it is clear that patterns of warfare shift across time and space, it is not clear that war itself has changed "fundamentally" and has become inexplicable in light of theoretical arguments in world politics as many "new war" theorists suggest. Our analysis demonstrates that many of the "new wars" are simply amalgamations of various interstate, extrastate, and intrastate wars-i.e., the "old wars"-that have been lumped into a single category. The result is a hodgepodge of armed conflicts whose different correlates derive from their diverse morphologies rather than their novelty as wars unlike any we have experienced previously.     

News,Talk, Opinion,Participation: The Part Played by Conversation in Deliberative Democracy

Deliberative democracy can be defined as a political system based on citizens' free discussion of public issues. While most scholars have discussed deliberative democracy normatively, this study attempts to test the validity of a model of deliberative democracy through examining the interrelationships among its four components: newsmedia use, political conversation, opinion formation, and political participation. Sufficient empirical evidence was found to support the hypotheses that (a) news-media use is closely associated with the frequency of political conversation in daily life both at general and issue-specific levels; (b) willingness to argue with those who have different opinions is influenced by majority perceptions and by news-media use and political talk; (c) news-media use and political conversation have positive effects on certain measures of the quality of opinions (argument quality, consideredness, and opinionation) and perhaps on opinion consistency; and (d) news-media use and political conversation are closely associated also with participatory activities, but more so with "campaigning" than "complaining."     

A willingness to talk: Conciliatory gestures and de-escalation

Conclusion This article points up a lack of any systematic, comparative knowledge about one aspect of the complex process of conflict termination, namely signalling a willingness to talk at the start of termination in such a way that the likelihood of an adversary's recognizing the gesture for what it is (and perhaps responding positively) is maximized. In the absence of systematic analysis, I have suggested a number of plausible working hypotheses about the characteristics of actions that have the best chance of being recognized by an adversary in the midst of conflict as real or genuine. In doing so, I have isolated a number of general principles that could be helpful in explaining why certain actions were successful in starting a process of de-escalation, at least leading to talks about talks, while others were not.I have, thus, focused on the likelihood of successful communication of a credible conciliatory gesture, if this is what a party wishes to convey. Of course, the real world of political conflict gives rise to numerous examples of false conciliatory gestures made for tactical advantage, concessions extracted from a reluctant adversary that will be repudiated once the balance of advantage changes, and de-escalation processes begun purely to obtain a breathing space. However, sorting out the genuinely intended signals from those designed as a ruse or smoke screen does not seem to be an inherently hopeless research task. It is unlikely that the accurate perception of genuine concessions in past conflicts has occurred in a wholly individual or random manner. Our hope, as scholars, must be that systematic empirical analysis will indicate some patterns in this phenomenon, throwing light on the manner in which conflicts begin to terminate, even if this proves only a temporary halt. This article seeks to contribute to such understanding by suggesting a framework within which answers might be sought. Christopher R. Mitchell is Professor of Conflict Resolution and International Relations at George Mason University, Fairfax, Va. 22030. He also serves as Director of the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason.Ideas for this article arose originally from work carried out in the Conflict Termination Project in the Department of Systems Science at the City University, London. Sincere thanks are due Dean Pruitt of the State University of New York, Buffalo; Louis Kriesberg of the Peace and Conflict Resolution Program, Syracuse University; Alan Simpson (Visiting Fellow); Shaw Smith (Diplomat in Residence) at the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution; and to doctoral students in my class, CONFLICT 751, for helpful comments and criticisms.     

When Private Talk Becomes Public Political Expression: Examining a Practice-Field Hypothesis of Youth Political Development

Previous research indicates the importance of interpersonal communication in the political socialization process. Investigations of political talk have mostly been restricted to frequency, and the theorizing of its effects centered on cognitive outcomes such as knowledge and ideological identification. This study examined the part played by private political talk in promoting expressive forms of political participation among adolescents. Recent survey panel data from Swedish 13–18-year-olds were analyzed. Results showed that frequency of private political talk predicted the extent of public political expression even when self-selection and previous levels of political expression were accounted for. Data offered some support for an expected interaction of private political talk and political interest in predicting public expression. The overall findings are consistent with the theoretical idea that political talk offers adolescents opportunities to enact participation in safe settings, and that this is a mechanism that can explain why talking about politics is favorable for political development during adolescence.     

The Intra-National Struggle to Define "US": External Involvement as a Two-Way Street

Three perspectives on the causes of communal conflict are visible in extant work: a focus on ancient hatreds, on leaders, or on the context that leaders "find" themselves in. Leaders therefore have all the power to mobilize people to fight (or not to) or leaders are driven by circumstantial opportunities or the primordial desires of the masses to resist peace or coexistence with historical enemies. Analysts who focus on leaders or context recognize that external actors affect internal conflicts, but little systematic research has explored the processes relating the domestic politics of nationalist mobilization to factors in the international arena. How does the international arena affect the competition among leaders? How do skillful leaders draw in external actors to lend credibility to their own views? This article asserts that leaders compete to frame identity and mission, and explores the degree to which international factors affect whose "definitions of the situation" are successful in precipitating mobilization shifts among potential followers. A unique finding of this longitudinal study of Northern Ireland is that the role played by international institutions and actors is affected by how domestic actors perceive, cultivate, and bring attention to the linkages between the two spheres.     

哈桑·哈乃斐的“行先于知”思想

"知"与"行"或者说"认识"与"实践"问题是阿拉伯当代文化与思想界十分受关注的问题,哈桑.哈乃斐作为当代阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化界最具影响力的思想家之一,就该问题展开了深入的思考与研究,提出了"行先于知"的思想主张,并充分挖掘了该思想在阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化中的深层渊源,力图在当代阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化中推崇重实践、绝空谈的务实精神,并推动将阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化研究在整体上实现从"神学"向"人学"的转变,促进阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化"传统"与"现代"的协调发展。     

Methods Meet Policy: Transnational Monitoring of the Israel–Palestine Conflict

For the past 2 years, the Kansas Event Data System project has been using event data and other web-based sources to produce quarterly reports on the Israel–Palestine conflict for the swisspeace (Swiss Peace Foundation) FAST Project, which is sponsored by Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and a number of non-governmental organizations. This paper describes the indicators that we are monitoring, the process we have developed to generate the reports, and the supplemental sources we are using. We address the issue of the differences between newspaper and news wire reports with respect to "media fatigue" effects and also analyze some of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach to conflict monitoring.     

The Effects of Political Talk Radio On Political Attitude Formation: Exposure Versus Knowledge

The effects of political news on the mass audience are usually difficult to establish empirically. Recent models of mass communication effects have held that political knowledge is a better indicator of media reception than traditional measures of exposure. This claim is tested in two studies of attitudes toward Democratic and Republican leaders during the 1996 U.S. presidential primary campaigns. The impact of messages from three types of political talk radio (PTR) is examined: Rush Limbaugh, other conservative hosts, and liberal/moderate hosts. Political knowledge and exposure to talk radio are found to be equally good predictors of attitudes toward political leaders when studied separately. However, when tested against one another, exposure is the more effective measure. Agreement between Rush Limbaugh's messages and his audience's attitudes toward political figures is consistent and strong. Biased processing of PTR content by audience members with partisan predispositions contrary to those of the host is also examined.     

Using Tomorrow's Headlines for Today's Training: Creating Pseudo-reality in Conflict Resolution Simulation Games

This article introduces the "pseudo-reality" method of constructing and conducting conflict resolution training workshops. This method focuses on creating a backdrop against which participants engage in building negotiation and mediation skills using real-life events and facts — but only to the extent that these events and facts promote the learning process. By creating pseudo-reality, trainers can overcome strong preconceptions or biases that can interfere with the learning process while at the same time preserving the advantages of working within a familiar, realistic environment. This method is meant to be used when the main goal of a workshop is skill building rather than imparting substantive knowledge of a specific conflict. The article illustrates this method by describing its use at a workshop conducted recently in Cyprus, in which the Israeli–Palestinian conflict served as a backdrop for conflict resolution skill building. Finally, the article describes a model designed to help conflict resolution trainers create pseudo-reality in their own workshops.     

Presidential Leadership on Foreign Policy,Opinion Polling,and the Possible Limits of “Crafted Talk”

The strategy of “crafted talk” (or framing) suggests that a politician uses public opinion to anticipate the most alluring, language to convince the public to follow a politician's own preferred policy (Jacobs & Shapiro, 2000 Jacobs, L. R. and Shaprio, R. Y. 2000. Politicians don't pander: Political manipulation and the loss of democratic responsiveness, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.  [Google Scholar]). This manipulatory behavior by presidents has important consequences in the realm of constructing foreign policy, especially if the policy involves military service personnel, international prestige, or foreign conflict. However, no scholar has investigated White House archival data to examine the theoretical nuances of presidential “crafting” talk when constructing arguments for foreign policy. This article examines three case studies using internal polling memoranda and focus group results concerning the Vietnam War under President Johnson, the signing of the INF Treaty with the Soviet Union under President Reagan, and the Gulf War under President Bush. In each of the three cases, public opinion places serious constraints on presidential framing of foreign policy. Implications for the effectiveness of political framing and the limits of presidential persuasion are discussed.     

Correspondences and Comparisons in International and Domestic Conflict Resolution

The eclectic field of conflict resolution is characterized by a constant interplay between practice and theory (to say nothing about varying interpretations of what practice and theory actually are or should be). The author raises a number of questions about how to develop and test theory; the significant role of context in theory generation; and a variety of themes or issues that can be explored to provide scholarly synthesis as well as guidance for the practitioner, in both domestic and international conflict situations.     

A Structural Analysis of International Conflict: From a Communication Perspective

The study describes the structure of international conflict with the tools of network analysis to enhance the understanding of multilateral conflict-communication relations and to predict the conflict structure with existing international relations theories (liberal and realist) plus global communication variables. Using data obtained from the Correlates of War Project (http://cow2.la.psu.edu/), the structure of international conflict is described for the period 1993–2001 for 145 nations. The results indicate that this network is very sparse; 42 nations had no conflict, and 36 only one bilateral disagreement. The network is centered about former Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), Russia, the United States, Iraq, and China. Most conflicts are regional. The paper also evaluates both the liberal, expanded liberal (with communication variables included), and realist (including Huntington's Clash of Civilizations Theory) perspectives as predictors of conflict. The results indicate that communication variables substantially enhance explanatory power of a predictive model, but the effects of the communication variables are inconsistent. A multiple regression model including history of colonialism and prior conflict, physical proximity and contiguity, whether or not a nation is a democracy, and the communication variables—international telecommunication, freight, and exports—accounted for 30.0% of the variance in the structure of international conflict and each variable was significantly related to conflict. The need for further research is discussed.     

论俄罗斯信息安全战略的“综合型”

波涛汹涌的信息技术革命和信息网络化浪潮在给人类带来良好机遇的同时,也带来了日趋激烈的信息战。信息战对信息安全的威胁和挑战越来越严重,对人类社会的冲击越来越广泛、越来越深刻,迫使人们研究应对战略和策略。俄罗斯在依据国情的情况下,实施了“综合型”信息安全战略,强调“以维护信息安全为重点,维护国家的综合安全”,并为此采取了种种措施,例如:提出第六代战争论、打击网络黑客、治理垃圾邮件等,以保证本国的信息安全。     

Realizing the Potential of International Conflict Work: Connections Between Practice and Theory

The author reviews the insights of four expert practitioners of international conflict resolution, pointing out a common theme that signals a major shift in the way we conduct and conceive of international conflict intervention. In addition to traditional top-down interventions, leading conflict resolution practitioners are advocating a bottom-up approach, a complementary effort that includes development of conflict resolution potential among the parties themselves, without external imposition. This increased emphasis on the kinds of structures, understanding, and relationships that help to transform international conflict situations reflects the impact the developing field of conflict studies has had on practice.     

Preventing War Through Nation-Building: A Self-Interested Approach to Peace

The author, in this adaptation of his talk at the Hewlett Centers meeting, reflects on the post-September 11 world and the critical need to develop peacemaking processes in the 21st Century. One key area that needs attention is nation-building, or sharing the knowledge, skills, and democratic resources of the well-developed countries with less-developed nations. Such development activity is not only morally and ethically correct; it is in our own nation's self-interest as a security measure. Other important post-9/11 considerations include paying attention to what our critics are saying; understanding the media's pivotal role; working with NGOs; and encouraging conflict resolution education.     

Two-Level Security Management and the Prospects for New Democracies: A Simulation Analysis

Most new democracies face serious internal, ethnic/separatist conflicts; in addition, some face international threats. The literature on the growth of democracy in the global system and its impact on world politics does not fully account for the dual threats all states must address in managing their security. Based on theoretical work by Starr (1994) which describes the "common logic" of conflict processes in war and revolution, we outline a model of how states respond to security threats from both external and internal sources. Using computer simulation, we analyze the model and evaluate the relative importance for state security of factors such as system size, numbers of democracies in the system, extraction/allocation strategy pursued by new democracies, and government legitimacy level. Our results show that new democracies thrive in systems that are predominantly democratic. Also, ally support can provide crucial resources for new democracies facing internal threats. Finally, "endangered" democracies can recover security by attempting to buy off domestic threats rather than deter them, and by improving legitimacy.     

A mathematical model of the persistence of conflict

A differential equation model is proposed to explain how a persistent level of conflict might be maintained by a nation. The basic driving force in the model is the assumption that there are two interacting forces within the nation. One group benefits from high levels of conflict and as the level of conflict drops attempts to drive it upwards again. The other group benefits from the absence of conflict and as the level of conflict becomes high attempts to drive it down. These assumptions lead to a model which has the following characteristics:

1. If the initial level of conflict is positive the stable level is positive and intermediate between the desired positions of the nationalists and internationalists.

2. If the initial value is negative the behavior is unstable and infinite negative conflict results.

   Introduction of a lag in the response to policy can produce the following additional behaviors:

3. Oscillating return to the equilibrium point.

4. Oscillating patterns which are virtually constant over time.

5. Rapid increases in conflict for short periods of time interspersed with long period of virtually no conflict.

   These different patterns can be obtained with the change of a single parameter in the model.

     

Forgiveness and Reconciliation: The Religious Dimension

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on “forgiveness” as one of the most conspicuous expressions of the growing role of religion in conflict transformation. The main questions put forward are the following: What is the role of forgiveness in reconciliation? Is forgiveness a necessary condition for reconciliation between former enemies? Is it sufficient for bringing about real and stable peace between them? To what extent and how does religion affect the reconciliation via forgiveness process?

This paper distinguishes between material conflicts, which evolve around material and dividable assets, and identity conflicts, which involve deep-seated hatred originating in the feeling of at least one of the sides that the other has usurped their legitimate rights. While material conflicts can be brought to an end through traditional conflict resolution techniques, identity conflicts need “track two” diplomacy strategies, and particularly forgiveness in order to reach reconciliation. Forgiveness, basically a religious concept, is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for bringing about reconciliation in identity conflicts. To the extent that the sides to the conflict share similar religious convictions regarding the centrality and nature of forgiveness, religion will contribute to reconciliation. But if the contenders hold different (let alone conflicting) tenets regarding forgiveness, religion may hamper the reconciliation process.

A quick glance at the three monotheistic religions shows significant differences in their approaches toward forgiveness. While Judaism, and to some extent Islam, see repentance as a sine qua non for forgiveness, Christianity highlights mercy and love and teaches its believers to ask and grant forgiveness without preconditions. These differences may widen the gap between the parties to an identity conflict that wish to resolve their conflict and ultimately reach full and genuine reconciliation. The arguments put forward in this paper need to be put to the test in historic and actual cases of identity conflicts. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict could serve as a suitable example for such a test.     

The Wrong Mental Image of Settlement

Negotiation participants usually think of settlement as the official end of a conflict; the author points out that this mental image is inaccuratein many situations, where a settlement is followed by additional eruptionsof conflict. He uses the recent Good Friday peace accord in NorthernIreland as an example of the continuing nature of many conflicts; theorizesas to why we have this incorrect mental image in general; and suggestsways we can present a more accurate representation of a conflict'slife cycle.