Classifying Risk Development and Predicting Parolee Recidivism with Growth Mixture Models

Using two data sets, containing 582 total cases, this study investigates whether classifying offenders on trajectories of risk scores helps predict parolee recidivism. One data set has 4 years of risk scores and another has three. Both data sets contain control variables measuring released inmates’ characteristics. The dependent variable measures arrest or return to prison over a 2-year span. A growth mixture model, classifies offenders into three classes, a stable and high trajectory group, a group with a high but declining risk trajectory, and a small, low-risk group with little change. Trajectory class membership correlates with recidivism in both data sets. Supplementary analyses show that assigned classes are better predictors of recidivism than last risk scores or simple change scores. Discussion centers on the appeal and relevance of trajectories of risk, as opposed to static measures, for predicting offender misconduct and other outcomes.     

Predicting Institutional Adjustment and Recidivism with the Psychopathy Checklist Factor Scores: A Meta-Analysis

This study explored the validity of the PCL/PCL-R factor scores in predicting institutional adjustment and recidivism in forensic clients and prison inmates. Forty-two studies in which institutional adjustment, release outcome (recidivism), or both were assessed prospectively with the PCL/PCL-R yielded 50 effect size estimates between the PCL/PCL-R factor scores and measures of institutional adjustment/recidivism. A meta-analysis of these findings disclosed that Factor 2 (Antisocial/Unstable Lifestyle) correlated moderately well with institutional adjustment and recidivism, whereas Factor 1 (Affective/Interpersonal Traits) was less robustly associated with these outcomes. Direct comparisons of the mean effect sizes attained by Factors 1 and 2 revealed that Factor 2 was significantly more predictive of total outcomes, general recidivism, violent recidivism, and outcomes from the 12 most methodological sound studies than Factor 1. There was less differentiation between Factors 1 and 2 on measures of institutional adjustment.     

Coordinated Community Intervention for Domestic Abusers: Intervention System Involvement and Criminal Recidivism

This study examined prosecution and post-prosecution elements of a coordinated community intervention approach to male perpetrators of adult domestic violence. In a sample of 235 cases, recidivism was assessed from official criminal justice data during a 12- to 18-month period after cases were initially handled by the Baltimore, Maryland State's Attorney's Domestic Violence Unit. Court orders for domestic violence counseling were associated with significantly lower criminal recidivism for battery or violation of a civil order of protection. Lower criminal recidivism was also associated with the cumulative effects of successful prosecution, probation monitoring, receiving a court order to counseling, attending counseling intake, and completion of counseling. Individuals with greater involvement in this intervention system had lower recidivism rates, even though offenders with more extensive abuse histories experienced more intervention. Results provide qualified support for coordinated community intervention for domestic violence perpetrators.     

Criminal Recidivism After Forensic Psychiatric Treatment. A Multicenter Study on the Role of Pretreatment,Treatment-Related,and Follow-Up Variables

This study examined associations between criminal recidivism after discharge from forensic treatment and variables related to either the time before the current forensic treatment, or the current forensic treatment, or the follow-up after discharge. Participants were treated in 12 forensic clinics according to section 63 of the German penal code. A patient was classified as a criminal recidivist when the patient or the aftercare reported that the patient was delinquent at follow-up. Patients without criminal recidivism were patients for which both perspectives (patient and aftercare) reported no delinquency at follow-up. Mann–Whitney U-tests and Fisher's exact tests were performed. Data to classify patients were available for N = 249 patients. Fifteen patients (6%) were classified as criminal recidivists. The follow-up was M = 12.58 (SD = 1.84) months, and the criminal acts occurred M = 6.00 (SD = 5.55) months after discharge. Differences between patients with and without criminal recidivism were found in pretreatment (young age at first crime, early onset of mental disorder, previous forensic treatments), treatment-related (disorder due to psychoactive substance use, gradual release abuses, outbreaks, assaults against staff, criminal act during treatment, type of discharge, outcome ratings), as well as follow-up variables (no specified housing situation, not being abstinent from psychoactive substances, inpatient readmission, course of outpatient treatment, course of mental disorder) (all p < 0.05). To conclude, it is important to consider variables related to the time before the current treatment, treatment-related variables, and variables related to the follow-up to identify the patients at risk of criminal recidivism after discharge from forensic treatment.     

Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

Parenting and Intimate Relationship Effects on Women Offenders' Recidivism and Noncompliance with Probation

This study disentangled the effects of intimate relationships and parenting on women probationers’ noncompliance. Data from a sample of 257 women were analyzed using logistic and negative binomial regression. Women with nonconforming intimate partners missed treatment more frequently, had a higher likelihood of missing a probation appointment, and had a higher chance of a new arrest for substance abuse or misdemeanor crimes during a 3-year follow-up period. Women parenting children had fewer missed probation appointments. Missed probation appointments increased the risk of recidivism for all crime categories except driving under the influence. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Predicting Recidivism with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version

Recidivism was evaluated in 178 male inmates administered the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and scored on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) 1–55 months before their release from prison. Age, prior charges, the LSI-R:SV total score, and the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Proactive Criminal Thinking (P), and Reactive Criminal Thinking (R) scores served as predictors of recidivism in follow-ups spanning 1–53 months. Age, prior charges, and the PICTS GCT and R scales consistently and incrementally predicted general recidivism (all charges), whereas prior charges and the PICTS R scale consistently and incrementally predicted serious recidivism (more serious charges). Although these results support the predictive efficacy and incremental validity of content-relevant self-report measures of criminality like the PICTS, they also indicate that the effect is modest and in need of further clarification. One area requiring further investigation is the potential role of the PICTS, particularly the R scale, as a dynamic risk factor.     

A Method for Estimating Sex Using Metric Analysis of the Scapula*

Abstract: The most accurate and precise methods for the assessment of age and stature often require knowledge of sex. Thus, being able to correctly identify sex from skeletal remains is critical in the forensic context. The presence of the os coxae or skull can never be guaranteed, making the development of reliable methods of sex estimation using other skeletal elements necessary. Using a 724 individual calibration sample from the Hamann‐Todd collection, this study identifies sexual dimorphism in the human scapula, and presents a new five‐variable discriminant function for sex estimation. The overall accuracy of this method proved to be 95.7% on the cross‐validated calibration sample, 92.5% on an 80 individual test sample from the Hamann‐Todd collection, and 84.4% on a 32 individual test sample from the skeletal collection of the Wichita State University Biological Anthropology Laboratory. Additionally, a slightly less accurate two‐variable model was developed and has cross‐validated accuracy of 91.3%.     

Predicting Conduct Problems from Community and Family Violence: The Moderating Effects of Hurricane Katrina

Although the devastation was immediately apparent, the effects of Hurricane Katrina on the behavior of youth are just now being revealed. Much post-disaster research targets adjustment of adults, but ample evidence indicates that youth experience a variety of psychological symptoms following a disaster, including depressive symptoms, aggression, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress. The aim of the current study was to determine whether hurricane exposure serves as a risk factor for developing conduct problems among violence-exposed youth. Results indicate that hurricane exposure had differential effects on the relations between conduct problems and community violence versus corporal punishment in the home. Though not statistically significant, there was an unexpected trend for youth with high hurricane exposure to show decreased conduct problems and those with low hurricane exposure to show increased conduct problems as violence exposure increased. Hurricane exposure played the predicted role in the relation between corporal punishment and conduct problems, such that high levels of hurricane exposure predicted increased conduct problems among youth experiencing high levels of corporal punishment, but not among those experiencing low levels of corporal punishment. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.     

社区矫正检察监督的理论根基、域外经验与模式选择

社区矫正是为预防犯罪而设计的相互关联的一系列项目,它旨在允许犯了罪的人进行自我改善,并为其提供相应的机会,使其不致再危害公共秩序和安全。对管制、缓刑与假释考验期内的犯罪分子实行社区矫正,检察机关参与这一过程的检察监督,是贯彻实施社会管理创新活动的重要举措。     

Estimating Country-Level Terrorism Trends Using Group-Based Trajectory Analyses: Latent Class Growth Analysis and General Mixture Modeling

Recent criminological research has used latent class growth analysis (LCGA), a form of group-based trajectory analysis, to identify distinct terrorism trends and areas of high terrorism activity at the country-level. The current study contributes to the literature by assessing the robustness of recent findings generated by one type of group-based analysis, LCGA, to changes in measurement and statistical methodology. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), we consider the challenges and advantages of applying group-based analysis to macro-level terrorism data. We summarize and classify country-level patterns of domestic and transnational terrorism using two types of group-based analyses, LCGA and an alternative yet similar modeling approach, general mixture modeling (GMM). We evaluate the results from each approach using both substantive and empirical criteria, highlighting the similarities and differences provided by both techniques. We conclude that both group-based models have utility for terrorism research, yet for the purposes of identifying hot spots of terrorist activity, LCGA results provide greater policy utility.     

A Method for Estimating Sex Using the Clavicle,Humerus, Radius,and Ulna

Sex estimation from skeletal remains can be an important part of preliminary identification. The best source of information for estimating sex is the pelvis but it is not always available for analysis. For these cases, a probabilistic sex estimation method is presented using combinations of standard and alternative measurements of the clavicle, humerus, radius, and ulna. Various equations are developed that are not population specific and that are applicable in various recovery scenarios. The equations were tested using four independent samples (n > 370), including a forensic sample. Allocation accuracies vary by test sample and equation and are consistently good (87.4–97.5%) except for a sample of very small males that show the extreme effects of poverty and mortality bias. For many of the cases where allocation was incorrect, the probabilistic approach indicated that no confidence should be placed in the incorrect allocation and the unknown should be classified as sex indeterminate.     

Predicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity Over Base Rate Information

The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in relation to state sexually violent person commitment statutes and the Supreme Court's Kansas v. Hendricks decision regarding the constitutionality of such statutes.     

对当前社区矫正队伍建设情况的分析与建议

司法部2004年颁布的《司法行政机关社区矫正工作暂行办法》（下文简称《办法》）中规定，社区矫正工作者由司法所工作人员、相关社会团体和社会志愿者组成。 另外，《办法》对社区矫正下了这样一个定义：社区矫正是……由专门的国家机关在相关社会团体和民间组织，以及社会志愿者的协助下……的非监禁刑罚执行活动。     

检察权与法律监督机关“疏离”的宪法安排及其寓意解析

在我国现行宪法上,关于人民检察院的＂检察权＂与＂法律监督机关＂的条文规定,存在明显的＂疏离＂,与关于人民法院既行使国家的审判权又是国家审判机关相一致的规定,形成鲜明的对照。正确解析＂检察权＂与＂法律监督机关＂规定之间＂疏离＂的宪法安排的寓意,是健全和完善国家的检察制度,延及国家的司法改革直至国家宪政的整体建设的力度和目标的出发点。     

Body-Worn Cameras and Citizen Interactions with Police Officers: Estimating Plausible Effects Given Varying Compliance Levels

Recent citizen deaths involving police use of force have increased discussion surrounding police accountability and community relations. One piece of this discussion is the use of body worn cameras (BWCs) by officers. Unfortunately, little rigorous research has been conducted to estimate the effectiveness of BWCs in reducing problematic police-citizen interactions. In this paper, we estimate two measures of effectiveness of BWCs by comparing incidents that occur in a squad assigned cameras to incidents that occur in a squad assigned control. First, we estimate the effect of being assigned a BWC (but not necessarily using the camera) on reducing complaints and resistance associated with incidents. Second, we employ data on BWC use to estimate the effect of cameras if they were used with full compliance. Together, these two estimates provide a plausible range of effectiveness that policymakers can expect from BWCs. We find that BWCs have no effect on the rate of arrest or resistance, but can substantially reduce complaints.