地方政府绩效评价的扩散:面向广东省的事件史分析

以1999—2016年广东省各市县政府绩效评价的扩散为例,运用基于二元Logistic回归的事件史分析(EHA)法,探寻地方政府绩效评价的扩散机制。研究发现,广东省各市县政府绩效评价的扩散在时间上呈现S形,并且可以分为四个阶段——起始阶段、稳定增长阶段、快速增长阶段和下降阶段;政府绩效评价是在以强制机制为主、以学习机制与竞争机制以及模仿机制为辅的共同影响下得以逐步扩散。同时,强制机制、学习机制和模仿机制的时间滞后效应显著。因此,为推动地方政府绩效评价工作的持续发展和水平提升,中央政府应该加大指导和督查力度,并鼓励各地开展经验交流和学习,开展地方特色创新;加强新闻报道和宣传,同步营造争先创优、提绩创效的舆论氛围。     

公共决策中的公民参与——基于政治控制的视角

政治民主化进程的推进,加大了公共决策中公民参与的步伐和力度。在中国现代化进程中,公民参与政府决策过程存在一定的问题,也造成了一定程度的不稳定。需要从观念、技术、手段及制度等层面对公共决策中的公民参与施以政治控制,以促进公民参与的有序化。     

Reassessing Schoenfeld Residual Tests of Proportional Hazards in Political Science Event History Analyses

An underlying assumption of proportional hazards models is that the effect of a change in a covariate on the hazard rate of event occurrence is constant over time. For scholars using the Cox model, a Schoenfeld residual‐based test has become the disciplinary standard for detecting violations of this assumption. However, using this test requires researchers to make a choice about a transformation of the time scale. In practice, this choice has largely consisted of arbitrary decisions made without justification. Using replications and simulations, we demonstrate that the decision about time transformations can have profound implications for the conclusions reached. In particular, we show that researchers can make far more informed decisions by paying closer attention to the presence of outlier survival times and levels of censoring in their data. We suggest a new standard for best practices in Cox diagnostics that buttresses the current standard with in‐depth exploratory data analysis.     

整体性治理与分散性治理:公共治理的两种范式

以"部门的合并还是拆分"为参照系可以将公共治理分为整体性治理和分散性治理两种范式。整体性治理主张建立较少数量的大部门以强化合作,以此解决政府改革所引发的空心化和碎片化问题。分散性治理则认为只有建立更多较小的部门以强化专业性和针对性,才能在日益多样化的政府组织形式下实现公共利益。整体性治理与分散性治理有共同的目标追求,但在具体路径选择上分道扬镳。良好的治理需要超越非此即彼的逻辑,实现不同治理模式的整合。     

Prudent Public Sector Investing and Modern Portfolio Theory: An Examination of Public Sector Defined Benefit Pension Plans

This research examines the extent to which public pension programs allocate assets in a manner that is consistent with an optimal portfolio, as defined by Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The examination is pursued by way of a statistical analysis, using a portfolio optimization model and data on some of the nation's largest public DB plans. The analysis illustrates that the majority of the plans in the sample are incurring far more risk in their portfolios than is optimal given their target rates of return and that this risk level is a result of nonprudent allocation across asset classes. The findings suggest that there might be opportunities to improve the long‐term performance of defined benefit plans by adjusting asset allocation targets and legal lists in a manner that is more consistent with MPT.     

基于政治协调的区域公共治理的问题缘起及其应对

区域经济的发展导致了需要通过政治协调才能解决的区域公共问题的产生和显现:跨地区性公共事务治理失灵,地方政府绩效评估没有进入区域公共治理的范畴,治理主体的利益差异引发区域公共治理体系的紊乱.区域政治协调的逻辑主要是:以区域逐渐增长的利益需求为动力,通过体现区域发展价值的制度安排来实现,在冲突和一致中推进和完善.政治协调的内涵主要包括政府职能、经济、社会三个层面.政治协调视域下区域公共治理路径的选择应考虑:构建区域治理的利益交换和利益补偿政府平台,国家总体配置和调节区域公共治理资源与功能,完善区域公共治理的政策协调体系,建构以均等化为导向的区域政府绩效评估指标体系.     

New Political Governance in Westminster Systems: Impartial Public Administration and Management Performance at Risk

This article examines the phenomenon of increased political pressures on governments in four Westminster systems (Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand) derived from changes in mass media and communications, increased transparency, expanded audit, increased competition in the political marketplace, and political polarization in the electorate. These pressures raise the risk to impartial public administration and management performance to the extent that governments integrate governance and campaigning, allow political staff to be a separate force in governance, politicize top public service posts, and expect public servants to be promiscuously partisan. The article concludes that New Zealand is best positioned to cope with these risks, in part because of its process for independently staffing its top public service posts. The article recommends this approach as well as the establishment of independently appointed management boards for public service departments and agencies to perform the governance of management function.     

Public Sector Corporate Governance Disclosures: An Examination of Annual Reporting Practices in Queensland

In the public sector, corporate governance is an expression that is yet to be explicitly defined. This paper examines the existing public sector literature in order to derive a set of broad principles of corporate governance in the public sector. These principles are then applied through a content analysis of corporate governance disclosures in a group of government‐owned corporations, state government departments, local governments and statutory bodies. The results indicate the set of principles derived is generally applicable to various forms of public entities. However, due to a lack of an established public sector corporate governance framework, the disclosure of corporate governance is piecemeal. Government‐owned corporations achieved better disclosure practices in most principles than other public sector bodies. The paper aims to stimulate debate on public sector corporate governance and provides a basis for a more extensive survey on corporate governance disclosures.     

An Options Pricing Method for Calculating the Market Price of Public Sector Pension Liabilities

State and local public sector employee pensions are widely known to be underfunded, but pension financial reports do not reveal the true extent of funding shortfalls. Pension accounting methods assume that plan investments can earn high returns without taking any account of the market risk involved. This gives a false sense of the financial strength of public sector pensions and understates risks to taxpayers. Since accrued pension benefits are legally and constitutionally protected, any pension funding shortfalls must be met by taxpayers. This benefit guarantee amounts to an effective put option on plan investments, the cost of which is not disclosed under current actuarial accounting. This paper uses an options pricing method to calculate the market value of taxpayer guarantees underlying public sector pensions. The average funding ratio declines from 83 percent under actuarial accounting to 45 percent under this options pricing approach. The typical state has unfunded public pension liabilities three times larger than its explicit government debt. Public pension shortfalls equal an average of 27 percent of state gross domestic product, posing a significant fiscal challenge in coming years. Accurate measures of public pension liabilities are important for policy makers, taxpayers, investors considering the economic environment in which to start or locate a business, and bond purchasers considering the risk premia appropriate to municipal government bonds that are in practice subordinate to public pension liabilities.     

霍布斯社会契约论中的公共治理思想分析

公共治理是当代公共管理发展的重要趋势,公共治理可以从霍布斯社会契约论中追寻到思想渊源。霍布斯认为,人除自利独占的一面外,更借以互惠合作的人性基础组成社会,规则之治是实现有效社会运作的必要条件,而社会中每一个人的权利都应平等地得到重视。霍布斯契约论的上述理论观点实质上揭示了对公共治理人性预设、实现条件和价值取向的深刻理解。对霍布斯契约论中的公共治理思想进行分析,对当前我国公共治理具有一定的启示意义。     

基本养老保险个人账户收益率与替代率关系定量分析

基本养老保险之目的是为退休人员提供合意的退休金，避免陷入老年贫困。本文分别从现行制度计发办法和实际生命余岁精算的角度出发，定量分析了我国基本养老制度个人账户收益率与其替代率的关系，提出应高度重视当前个人账户低收益率所带来的严重后果，较高的收益率既是替代率的重要保证，也是累积制优越性的重要体现。而收益率的重要性却没有在政策制定中充分体现，低水平计息、微不足道的替代率皆与当初设想相去甚远。结论：既然建立了个人账户就应该将其做实并通过市场化运营获得较高的回报；而在还未有效地解决好收益率的情况下，不应草率地再将个人账户推广至其他群体，以免使更多人受损。     

Introduction: The Future of British Political History

Politics and history are closely intertwined and historians play a vital role in British public life. Yet, British political history, which has a critical contribution to make for understanding British politics today, faces two urgent challenges. First, academic history has retreated from subjects that remain hugely popular in media and trade publishing and of interest to social scientists, such as the histories of political institutions and formal power structures. Second, political history is disconnected from innovative trends in the wider historiography of modern Britain. Combined, these issues leave political historians in an ambiguous position in relation to the wider field, to other academic disciplines and to contemporary political debates. After discussing these challenges, this introduction surveys this special issue, which reflects on what (if anything) is distinctive about political history as practised today, and what its contribution to historiography, social science and public life should be. It ends by posing key questions for historians of all methodological stripes who investigate Britain's political past.     

Public Pension Funds and Operating Budgets: A Tale of Three States

This article provides a normative framework for understanding the important link between public pension fund management and government operating budgets. Three aspects of pension fund management are discussed that have a significant impact on the operating budget: pension contribution, investment strategy, and the funding of pension liabilities. Three cases concerning West Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City are discussed to illustrate these three important aspects. The normative framework and the case studies demonstrate two important principles in prudently managing public pension funds: ensuring intergenerational equity and protecting the long-term health of government budgets.     

网络治理：公共管理的新框架

近年来,网络治理是西方国家公共管理研究的一个前沿课题,网络治理的理论主张、治理结构和治理机制是文章的研究中心.在疏理和整合当前网络治理研究的基础上,文章指出,政策网络理论与治理理论的结合,促成了行动者中心制度主义和管理复杂网络两种流派的形成,倡导网络治理作为一种新的治理模式,致力于实现主体间良性互动和互利互补的合作;网络治理的治理结构是不同于市场(自愿)与科层(强制)的复杂结构,网络是一个有着共同价值诉求的自组织系统,它不同于市场中自愿的个体行为,又不同于科层的命令服从体系;网络治理的治理机制在于信任机制和协调机制的培育,信任机制是网络的运作基础,其地位类似于市场的价格机制或科层的权威机制,而信任机制的落实,又需要回到协调机制的构建上,只有在价值协同、信息共享以及诱导与动员等方面建立起良好协调机制的基础上,才能真正地培育起成员间的信任关系以及成员与集体之间的信任关系,最终实现互利互惠的合作.     

Shaping Administrative Reform and Governance: An Examination of the Political Nexus Triads in Three Asian Countries

When addressing administrative reform, many scholars have referred to the fact that governments confront multiple internal challenges such as fiscal stress, distrust of bureaucracy, and higher demands for public services (Peters and Savoie 1995). Externally, governments become more sensitive to global issues and tend to be more influenced by international environments (Garcia-Zamor and Khator 1994). Faced with internal and external challenges, governments seek new paradigms for governance (Ingraham and Romzek 1994) and often initiate administrative reform (AR) aimed at enhancing governmental performance and improving the administrative system through technological advances, managerial improvements, administrative innovations and continued enhancement of administrative capabilities (Caiden 1991). Administrative reform and its diffusion among Western countries are well documented in the literature (Campbell and Peters 1988; Savoie 1994; Halligan 1996; Peters and Savoie 1995). However, studies are skewed toward Western countries and little attention has been paid to Asia. Even less attention has been paid to comparative studies on Asian administrative reform, even though many Asian countries have developed their own AR trajectories to improve public efficiency and productivity (Burns 1994; Zhang, De Guzman, and Reforma 1992). As many students of comparative public administration (CPA) understand, it is always a challenging task, both methodologically and theoretically, to examine a group of different countries (Aberbach and Rockman 1987; Heady 1996a; 1996b; Peters 1988; Peters 1996). It is an even more challenging and controversial task to develop a single comparative framework from which we can examine different countries. This article attempts to fill a gap in the literature by examining Asian AR from a comparative perspective. First, we propose an exploratory theoretical framework, a Political Nexus Triad (PNT). PNT is an extended model, which adds civil society as the third dimension to the traditional politics-administration model. We suggest the PNT and its dynamic trajectory as a building block of the comparative study of Asian administrative reform. This is similar to the power interaction models in which Peters (1988) addresses the power interactions between politicians and bureaucrats. 1 Peters (1988) suggests the “pursuit of power” as one of the following four dependent variables for the comparative study of public bureaucracy: an individual level, an organizational level, a behavioral level and a power level. With respect to the power level, Peters develops five ideal-type models: a formal/legal model, a village life model, a functional village life model, an adversarial model and an administrative state model.
¹ Second, we examine the conventional patterns of PNT for three Asian countries: China, Japan, and Korea. Third, we survey AR of the three countries, focusing on actors, contents and potential impacts to the new PNT. Finally, we discuss conclusions and comparisons     

自主与嵌入:社会组织参与基层协商治理的逻辑与模式

伴随基层社会治理体制的改革,各地探索出不同形式社会组织参与基层协商治理的实践形态,表现出了独有的治理特征与差异化的参与模式.借鉴嵌入自主性理论,从社会组织而非国家的"自主性"与"嵌入性"两个属性着眼,构建一个社会组织参与基层协商治理的分析框架,将社会组织的参与模式分为基层自治型、协同共治型、行政主导型等三种有效治理模式,并运用相应的实践案例对其解释力进行分析.由此探讨社会组织参与基层社会治理的复杂性和多元性,何以能够与基层社会治理的有序性和有效性共生,并从动态发展的角度提出不同参与模式可能发生的类型变迁及相关治理建议.     

The Decline of Democratic Governance: An Analysis and a Modest Proposal

Why has democratic governance declined, at least in the Anglo‐American world? This essay maps the causes. It starts with the major parties, once basic agents of mass mobilisation and representation. It argues that a cascading series of developments, often involving contingent adjustments to immediate exigencies, have, in a longer perspective, created a fundamental gap between the political system and its publics. A second section then sketches paths to democratic renewal. How might this gap be closed? What other changes might be required to make this a reality? Are prospects of change fanciful?