Median Voter Preferences,Central Bank Independence and Conservatism

This paper studies how the independence and theconservatism of a central bank relate to the structureand stability of the median voter preferences. This isdone by means of a model of endogenous delegationwhere an opportunistic policy maker chooses themonetary regime (independence and conservatism) tomaximise the welfare of the median voter. The resultsshow that a high degree of inflation aversion ofmonetary policy is not necessarily associated with ahigh degree of central bank independence. A high andstable degree of inflation aversion of society (i.e.of the median voter) may lead to establish a dependentcentral bank which is highly inflation averse. This suggests that the negativecorrelation between inflation and central bankindependence indices detected by several empiricalstudies may reflect a link between inflation and somedeep features of social preferences.     

The European Central Bank: Independence, accountability and strategy: A review

This paper reviews research on central banking and monetary policy, with special emphasis on the position of the future European Central Bank. Nowadays, it is often thought that an independent central bank with an explicit mandate to aim for price stability constitutes an important institutional device to assure price stability. Indeed, the ECB will be one of the most independent central banks as follows from the codings of various indicators measuring legal independence. Still, it does not follow straightforwardly from the literature that the Statute of the ECB is optimal. It is also argued that the accountability of the ECB is poorly arranged for in comparison with that of several national central banks. Finally, the discussion about the monetary strategy of the ECB is reviewed.     

The European Central Bank and the COVID-19 recession

The ECB, turning a page from its sluggish response the 2008–09 financial crisis, has responded to the COVID-19 recession by quickly stabilising banks and flooding the eurozone with cheap capital. Yet the crisis has caused fiscal imbalances – most notably between Germany and Italy – to worsen, with no prospect of making political headway towards mutualising the debts of individual member states.     

Optimal Central Bank Conservativeness in an Open Economy

This paper develops a graphical method to determinethe optimal degree of central bank conservativeness inan open economy. Unlike Rogoff (1985a), the upper andlower bounds of the interval containing the optimaldegree of conservativeness are expressed in terms ofthe structural parameters of the model. It is shownthat optimal central bank conservativeness is higher,the higher the natural rate of unemployment, thegreater the benefits of unanticipated inflation, theless inflation-averse society, the smaller thevariance of productivity shocks, the smaller realexchange rate variability and the smaller the opennessof the economy. These propositions are tested fornineteen industrial countries for the period1960–1993. In testing the model we employ a latentvariables method (LISREL) in order to distinguishbetween actual and optimal monetary regimes.     

Political institutions and Central Bank independence: A cross-country analysis

Using three quantitative measures of Central Bank independence, we apply OLS and TSLS regression methods to investigate the possible correlation between political liberty, political instability and central bank independence. For a sample of Western democracies and highly democratic developing countries we show that Cukierman's legal independence index is positively correlated with political freedom and regime political stability. It is negatively correlated with party political stability. For a sample of developing countries that excludes dictatorships we show that a special index of legal central bank autonomy is positively associated with political freedom and political stability. Finally, we observe that, for the same sample of nations, the turnover index of central bank independence is not sensitive to our political variables.     

Epistemic Communities and the Diffusion of Ideas: Central Bank Reform in the United Kingdom

In May 1997 the incoming Labour government gave the Bank of England operational independence in the setting of interest rates. This reform is puzzling as it was introduced by a party whose roots lie with the trade union movement, and resisted by the Conservatives whose political support comes largely from business, the financial sector and homeowners who stand to benefit most from price stability. Economic ideas are central to explaining the outcome. The Labour Chancellor was convinced by an epistemic community of monetary experts that central bank independence would achieve New Labour's electoral goals. These political incentives were absent for the Conservatives, who preferred to set interest rates strategically to increase their popularity with voters.     

金融体制改革中通货膨胀与通货紧缩的体制性原因

中国金融体制改革中出现了通货膨胀与通货紧缩现象,其原因主要在于体制改革的滞后和不到位。要克服这两种现象,需要通过包括金融体制改革在内的经济体制改革来解决。只有打破旧的体制,建立和完善新的体制,才能从根本上抑制通货膨胀和治理通货紧缩。     

Risk Attitudes and Independence Vote Choice

In this article, we examine the impact of risk attitudes on vote choice in the context of a salient referendum with high levels of uncertainty about the consequences of the ballot proposal. Using data from a pre- and post-referendum panel survey conducted in the context of the 2014 independence referendum in Scotland, and a specific battery to measure attitudes to risk, we determine how these attitudes operate in such political contexts. We reach two main conclusions. First, risk attitudes have a direct effect on vote choice, even after controlling for alternative explanations of vote choice such as party identification and leaders’ evaluations. In the aggregate, the effect of risk attitudes on the vote choice contributes to the status quo bias found in referendums. Second, we find that information moderates the effect of risk attitudes on vote choice. Voters who are politically knowledgeable have a greater capacity to predict the consequences of political outcomes and, therefore, they are less affected by their risk attitudes when making their ballot choices.

     

Religion and the Scottish Independence Referendum

The Scottish independence referendum debate, like the Act of Union of 1707, has significant religious dimensions. The Act gave special recognition through the monarch to the Presbyterian Church of Scotland. The Church, a national church, has not yet declared a position on independence, but is seeking to protect its existing privileges whatever the result. The Roman Catholic Church, recognised by the Scottish Parliament, unlike its formal rejection by the UK Parliament and monarchy, symbolically associates itself with the case for independence. Paradoxically, Catholics supporting independence subject themselves, in their religious lives, to an authoritarian foreign power. The SNP Scottish Government attempts to draw Roman Catholic support for independence from its traditional support base in the Labour Party by cultivating a sense of religious grievance that is not justified by the evidence. Old religious divisions are still relevant but non‐religion is growing fast and resulting in new perspectives on the independence debate.     

有关我国当前通货紧缩的几点思考

一、通货紧缩的原因通货紧缩的根本原因在于上一轮技术创新的收益开始递减,表现在市场上,新商品和新生产技术已经饱和,同时,市场需求的增长率日趋下降。因此,经济的全面回升,有待科学技术领域产生新的更大的创新,有待新的技术创新“破坏性地创造”大量新的投资机会,使得投资的边际收益率再度提高。概言之,经济增长的源泉来自两类因素。投入的增加和单位投入之产生增加。前者依赖于资源的投入;后者则依赖知识的积累和技术的进步。主要依赖前者而不是依赖后者的经济增长,不可避免地会导致收益递减。因此,一国之经济要想持续地保持增长,唯一地…     

非营利组织的独立与自治

非营利组织作为一种民间志愿性组织,在发展社会福利、提高公众参与方面具有无可比拟的积极作用。但是,随着非营利组织数量的增加、规模的扩大及社会地位的提高,它却面临着丧失独立性、沦为政府附庸和商业公司的威胁。如何保持非营利组织的独立与自治、实现非营利组织的健康持续发展就成了我们应对的新挑战。非营利组织实现独立与自治的措施在于:强化非营利组织自身对独立性的追求与承诺;明确非营利组织使命,实现管理创新;采用透明的运作方式,提高组织公信度;扩大非营利组织间的交流与合作,提高部门竞争能力。     

基层央行货币发行领域廉政风险防控机制调查与思考

货币发行作为央行三大职能之一,在维护社会稳定、支持经济发展方面发挥着重要作用。近年来,随着国家金融体制的改革,货币发行领域的履职风险和风险环境也发生了相应变化。目前,货币发行领域廉政风险防控仍存在制度执行力不强、人力资源匮乏、后续监督检查机制不健全、风险控制手段单一等问题。应采取优化人力资源配置、建立风险导向模式、开展廉政文化教育等措施,保障货币发行秩序和谐有序,为经济社会的科学发展提供有力保证。     

Investing in Individuals for Independence

Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) are tax‐protected, matched savings accounts designed to help those with low incomes and few assets buy a home, capitalize a business, or fund higher education. Originally authorized through the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), IDAs are designed, implemented, and evaluated through public‐private partnerships. In January 2003 over 500 IDA programs had been created, with more than 10,000 low‐income individuals making contributions. This paper outlines the rationale for IDA as an asset building strategy for the poor, describes the design and operation of IDAs, and provides results of early program evaluations. It concludes by arguing that IDAs are a smart practice that can and should be expanded.     

Higher Education and the Referendum on Scottish Independence

During the course of the referendum campaign, the Scottish government argued that free tuition for Scottish and EU students symbolised Scotland's preference for universal services and was intrinsically fairer than the ‘marketised’ systems operating in the rest of the UK. Invoking principles of both social justice and pragmatism, three distinct critiques of the Scottish government's higher education policy were mounted and adopted by different policy actors for different political purposes. Following a discussion of these arguments, this article concludes that a more nuanced discussion of higher education policy in Scotland is required, focusing not just on the absence of tuition fees but also on the distribution of debt and allocation of funds across the entire education system. We also note that the focus on tuition fees policy suggests that higher education systems across the UK are set on a process of divergence, whereas there are strong pressures towards policy convergence in areas such as research policy and internationalisation.     

Scottish Independence,State Religion and the Monarchy

The plans of the Scottish Executive/Government for the independence of Scotland, which are very sketchy, are explored in relation to desire to retain the monarchy. The Scottish Parliament has expressed support for the removal of religious discrimination from succession to the throne and instituted an alternative state religion—measures which suggest an alternative relationship between religion and the monarchy will be required in an independent Scotland. Repealing the Act of Union will require decisions as to whether the monarchy remains as Christian, Protestant and Presbyterian in Scotland or whether some alternative religious or secular arrangements will be developed. Accepting the existing religious settlement of the monarchy, or varying it, will generate challenging issues for a Scottish administration that is seeking to be more religiously inclusive.     

The Independence Case in Comparative Perspective

Scotland is not the only sub‐state unit in Europe where relevant political actors make claims for independence. To generate insights on these independence demands, we compare the drivers, arguments and popular support for secession in Scotland, the Basque Country, Catalonia and Flanders. We argue that national identity, party politics and the economy are behind the independence requests, and the exact articulation of these elements varies from case to case. Currently, the most salient of these demands are the ones from Catalonia; Basque demands for self‐determination are less prominent than in the past, whereas the demand for a vote on independence is much less articulated in Flanders. Although the Scottish independence referendum has set a precedent for solving independence disputes, we argue that the possibilities of exporting the Scottish referendum experience to other realities are limited.     

The Public Service: Independence, Responsibility and Responsiveness

In recent years there has been controversy surrounding the issues of the independence, responsibility and responsiveness of our public services. Critics come from two opposing directions: (i) there have been charges of politicisation of the public service, with the implication that it has lost its independence and become dominated by the government; (ii) Pusey (1991) has accused 'economic rationalists' in the public service of pursuing their own neo-classical agenda and dominating government policy. Both criticisms reveal a misunderstanding of the respective roles and responsibilities of ministers and public servants and the proper relations between them. In our system of democratic government, it is the prerogative of ministers to decide and the role of departments to propose and advise and then implement the decisions of ministers. This contribution begins by considering the respective responsibilities of ministers and officials, before canvassing the charges of politicisation and what should be expected from public servants in contributing to policy development. Finally there is consideration of the ethical values of public servants and what responsibility they might have for the 'public interest'.