Environmental effects of GATT/WTO membership: an empirical evaluation

ABSTRACT

One of the great questions for scholars of international relations and economics concerns the relationship between the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the natural environment. Does membership in the multilateral trade regime constrain environmental regulation and increase the environmental burden of national economies? Do countries pay a heavy environmental price for trade liberalization? Although this question has been debated extensively, there is little statistical evidence to contribute the debate. We provide a comprehensive statistical analysis of the environmental effects of joining the multilateral trade regime. We collected data on a variety of environmental policies, institutions, and outcomes that should be influenced by the General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/WTO membership if the predictions of environmental pessimists or optimists are valid. A wide range of statistical models designed to identify the causal effect of the GATT/WTO on the environmental indicators shows that joining the GATT/WTO does not have negative effects on environmental quality.     

拉美国家的贸易开放度研究

贸易开放是经济现代化的基本特征之一,GATT以及WTO等一些国际经济秩序的基本构成机制进一步推动了全球的贸易自由化,背离这一秩序或者趋势的结果是无法从他国的市场开放中获得益处。在出口导向战略实施了多年之后,目前拉美主要国家的贸易开放到底达到了一个什么样的程度正是我们所困惑的问题。本文以亚洲7个国家作为参照组,研究了1995年至2009年拉美7个国家(阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和委内瑞拉)的贸易开放程度。主要结论是,最近10多年,7个拉美国家的贸易开放度有了显著而稳步的上升,但与亚洲国家相比,拉美国家的贸易开放程度普遍略低。本文对于研究拉美国家经济开放程度与经济增长、国际贸易体制以及国内产业发展之间的关系,特别是中拉经贸关系发展前景等问题都具有基础性和阶段性的意义。     

Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements

Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) have become the most prevalent form of international trade liberalization in recent decades, even though it remains far from clear what their effects on economies and their key units, firms, are. This paper evaluates the distributional consequences of trade liberalization within industries differentiating two distinct aspects in which trade liberalization could result in higher trade flows: the intensive vs. the extensive margin of trade. In particular, we analyze whether trade liberalization leads to increased trade flows because either firms trade more volume in products they have already traded before (intensive margin) or because they start to trade products they have not traded previously (extensive margin), or both. We test these arguments for the Dominican Republic–Central America–United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and exporting firms based in Costa Rica for the time-period 2008–2014. The results of our study suggest that the effects of CAFTA-DR depend not only on whether we analyze the extensive versus the intensive margin of trade but also whether the product in question is homogenous or differentiated and whether the exporting firm under analysis is small or large. In particular, we find support for the theoretical expectation that firms exporting heterogeneous products, such as textiles, gain from trade agreements, such as CAFTA-DR, in that they can export more varieties of their products. Yet at the same time, they tend to lose at the intensive margin by a reduction in their trade volume while the opposite pattern occurs for firms exporting homogenous products.     

The GATS and financial services: the role of regulatory transparency

The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and its Annex on Financial Services provide the international legal framework for the regulation of cross-border trade in financial services. This paper analyses the main provisions of the GATS that relate to regulatory transparency of trade in financial services. The GATS generally provides a flexible framework for states to negotiate liberalisation commitments while providing WTO members with autonomy to promote their regulatory objectives. The extent to which states, however, must adhere to GATS disciplines regarding transparent regulatory practices has become a source of policy debate. Although the WTO has played no role in setting financial regulatory standards, the transparency obligations of the GATS have important implications for how financial regulators can achieve their objectives. Moreover, GATS transparency obligations can potentially create disproportionate administrative costs for developing countries and thus undermine their financial sector development. The paper argues that the principles of regulatory transparency in the GATS should be interpreted in a way that favours regulatory discretion to achieve financial stability and other prudential objectives. In the post-Doha era, WTO members should attempt to clarify GATS transparency obligations in a way that promotes financial development and regulatory autonomy.     

Challenges to multilaterism free trade agreements

The establishment of free trade took place in the late 18^th and 19^th centuries and, after the Second World War, international trade through trade liberalisation gained increased importance. International organisations such as the General Agreement in Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the present World Trade Organisation (WTO) were then established to provide the institutional framework for a system of rights and obligations for trade in goods and services between countries. Nations worldwide are currently promoting trade liberalisation using various ways, multilaterally, regionally or bilaterally.     

中国-东盟自由贸易区的进程与前景

中国—东盟自由贸易区得以产生决非偶然,它是以全球贸易自由化的迅速兴起和中国加入世贸组织的区域影响为背景。中国与东盟正式签署了《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,确定了中国-东盟自由贸易区的目标、范围、措施、时间表,它为建立中国-东盟自由贸易区设计了基本架构,诚然,中国-东盟自由贸易区进程中,将面临来自区域内外的一系列挑战。不过,在中国与东盟之间,共同利益远大于分歧,合作机遇远大于挑战。     

International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs

Many scholars assert that international institutions have little power to enforce laws, punish offenders, or force compliance. Others stress that international institutions are important actors, specifically in the regulation of international trade. In this paper, I show that the recent trade dispute over U.S. steel protection provides us with a critical case to evaluate the role of the World Trade Organization in settling trade disputes and specifically stabilizing expectations of market actors over future steel policy. I argue that stock prices can serve as an important tool in answering these questions. In an empirical analysis using daily steel stock prices, I find that during the 2002 WTO steel case, the WTO dispute mechanism helped market actors stabilize expectations of future trade policy.

Who Liberalizes? Explaining Preferential Trade Liberalization

Despite the growth in research on preferential trade arrangements (PTAs), few studies have systematically explored why some PTAs have been more successful than others at liberalizing trade among members. In this paper I test four hypotheses concerning intra-PTA liberalization: a regional system structure hypothesis, an international institutions hypothesis, a domestic institutions hypothesis, and an economic hypothesis. Although all four types of variables are statistically significant, only international institutions have substantively large effects on intra-PTA liberalization. This suggests that policymakers have considerable latitude to promote integration, as the impact of “choice” variables such as international institutions far outweighs that of “given” factors such as regional system structure or the nature of member economies.     

我国与东盟国家双边投资保护制度分析

2002年11月4日，中国与东盟国家在柬埔寨首都金边正式签署了《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议》，确定了中国-东盟自由贸易区经济合作与交流的基本框架。这标志着中国-东盟自由贸易区（简称为CAFTA）进程的正式启动，在中国与东盟的关系史上树立了一个新的里程碑，中国与东盟的经济合作进入了全面发展的历史新阶段。尤其是2004年中国-东盟自由贸易区建设启动以降低关税为核心的早期收获计划以来，     

Outside looking in: non-accession to the WTO

Since its institutional birth in 1947, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) / World Trade Organization (WTO) has mushroomed from 23 original contracting parties to 157 members as of September 2012. Another 28 countries are currently observers, each at varying stages of the accession process. WTO members and observers cover some 99 per cent of the world's population and over 99 per cent of global trade. However, there are still 13 states outside the multilateral rules-based trading system. This paper argues that existing explanations of membership and accession do not fully explain why these states remain outside the WTO, with implications for membership in international institutions generally. The paper tests hypotheses of non-membership based on a lack of willingness (domestic support), ability (technical capacity) or external pressure, and augments these statistical findings with a comparative country-level narrative of WTO (non-)accession decision-making in two small island countries.     

Sustaining multilateral trade cooperation in a multipolar world economy

The deadlock in the WTO Doha Round has been accompanied by an increased focus on the negotiation of preferential trade agreements, including so-called ‘mega-regionals’. This paper discusses possible implications for—and possible responses by—excluded countries that have little prospects of participating in most of the mega-regionals. A number of complementary avenues are identified through which such countries might attenuate the potential downsides of preferential trade liberalization among large countries, as well as some proposals that would expand the scope to pursue cooperation on regulatory policies in the WTO as opposed to PTAs.     

世贸组织规则框架内发展边境贸易的思考

边境贸易在我省对外贸易和对俄贸易中所占比重较大。我国加入世贸组织后,边境贸易继续保持了较快的发展。这是由于边境贸易的发展及其作用与世贸组织的宗旨和目的是一致的,符合世贸组织关于贸易自由化的基本原则。我国加入世贸组织,不仅不会影响边境贸易发展,而且会使边境贸易获得更完备的法律保护和更优惠的政策支持。     

International Integration and Democratization: An Event History Analysis

This article examines the relationships between transitions to and from democracy and membership in major intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), ratification of key human-rights treaties, and integration into the global economy while controlling for a variety of domestic factors. The findings show that for the most part, participation in the major IGOs and the United Nations' human-rights regime has made little difference to the chances that countries would attempt or sustain democracy. Participation in regional human-rights treaties in Africa and the Americas is linked to better prospects for democracy, but this association appears to stem from regional trends of which those pacts are emblematic, rather than mechanisms specific to the pacts themselves. Finally, entanglement in the global economy – as indicated by thicker trade flows and membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then World Trade Organization (WTO) – seems to have had a stronger effect on the prospects for democracy than these other forms of international integration, but not always in the beneficent direction posited by liberal theorists. While participation in the GATT/WTO is associated with better prospects for the establishment and persistence of democracy, foreign trade itself is linked to the persistence of domestic political regimes of either stripe, democratic and non-democratic.     

The international dimension of democratization: testing the parsimonious approach

This article examines the importance of the international context on regime change. It provides evidence that geographic proximity to the European Union (EU) does not result in the spread of democracy. In contrast, communication and cooperation between EU actors and sub-national regions contributes significantly to the development of democracy in these regions. Considering the role of EU projects, investments and trade in regime transition—measured through indicators of civil society, political openness, freedom of speech and economic liberalization—this article demonstrates that international context may have a positive influence on the diffusion of democracy at a regional, sub-national level. This finding has substantial implications for the literature on international relations and globalization studies. It suggests that the emergence of ‘new’ regions through communication and cooperation takes place through two seemingly contradictory but mutually reinforcing processes: regionalization (territorial disintegration/federalization) and integration (through communication and cooperation).     

印度对外贸易自由化模式改革的启示

始于20世纪90年代的印度对外贸易自由化模式改革为我国对外贸易发展模式的调整提供了诸多有益的启示：首先,我国调整外贸模式时应把握住贸易自由化的方向和限度;其次,我国应积极构建适应WTO的贸易政策体系,在外贸中争取主动;最后,我国应注重产业结构调整和产品升级,才能有力支撑对外贸易。     

Regional Trade Agreements as Military Alliances

Research on change in international regimes usually examines noncompliance with regime norms. In studies of international trade regimes, this means a focus on the imposition of trade barriers rather than liberalization. Developing a measure of compliant as well as noncompliant government intervention in trade for the Contracting Parties to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gives a fuller indication of regime strength. Regressing these measures against the rate of change in export volumes for the market economies allows an examination of the effects of changes in regime strength and system performance. At this level of the international system, the analysis points to a strong negative relationship between protectionist acts and the rate of growth in the export volume of the market economies; however, detrending and deserializing the independent variables results in a strong negative relationship between changes in export volume and the percentage of countries that both increase and decrease protectionist policies in the same year.     

Can trade make a sovereign? Taiwan–China–EU relations in the WTO

In 2002 Taiwan became a member of the World Trade Organization. Although its accession process was guided by pragmatism, once it had entered the trade body sovereignty concerns came to the fore. This article analyses the relationship in the Taiwan–China–EU triangle during Taiwan’s accession to and membership of the WTO. While Taiwan is now more ready to use the WTO as a platform in its quest for international status, the behaviour patterns of the EU and China have largely remained static. The EU is interested in the economic benefits of improved relations with Taiwan, but avoids getting involved in the sovereignty conflict. China, meanwhile, tries to prevent a status gain by Taiwan in the international community.     

中国—东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易结构优化分析

产业内贸易是当今国际贸易发展的主要趋势,对双边贸易结构调整和优化起着重要作用.中国--东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)作为发展中国家间的最大自由贸易区,影响着东亚以及全球经济格局,产业内贸易发展必将带动双边贸易结构进一步优化.本文运用实证分析方法,对中国--东盟产业内贸易水平及贸易结构进行深入分析.研究结论表明,目前中国--东盟产业内贸易发展水平较低,并且呈现缓慢下降趋势,而以垂直异质为主的产业内贸易结构发展迅速,与产业内贸易发展水平呈现"剪刀差"趋势.     

Environmental aspects in free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region

The trade and environment interface has become a topic of growing importance. Until the early 1990s, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), were the major forums to address the relationship between trade and the environment. Significant progress in this area has not yet been made. Since the 1990s, environmental issues have been addressed by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and in recent times by trans-regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) such as the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (SEP), the U.S.–Singapore FTA (USSFTA), the Canada–Chile FTA or the New Zealand–Thailand Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEP). Not only questions on the effectiveness of FTAs in global and regional environmental governance arise but also on the various actors involved in these negotiations. The question here is whether the integration of environmental issues in FTAs is a top-down approach, leaving the negotiations and implementation of environment cooperation frameworks in the hands of governments, or whether environmental arrangements are the result of a multi-stakeholder dialogue, consequently committing governments, the private sector and civil society to the objective of making trade and environmental policies mutually supportive. This article seeks to address these questions by analysing environmental issues and stakeholder participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Trans-Pacific SEP and the New Zealand–Thailand CEP.

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Lobbying as a Private Good with Intra-Industry Trade

Intra-industry trade—trade in different varieties of the same product between countries with similar factor endowments—has been an important and surprising feature of the postwar international economy. Economists have explained this trade with models of monopolistic competition, which suggest that intra-industry trade does not have the stark distributional consequences that the more traditional "endowments-based" trade does. I do not dispute that claim here, although I do dispute a political implication drawn from it—that intra-industry trade produces less political action than endowments-based trade. I argue that, because firms involved in intra-industry trade are monopolists, lobbying essentially becomes a private good . If intra-industry trade places costs on firms, they do not have less incentive to take political action to stop it, as the conventional wisdom suggests. I provide evidence for this contention from complaints lodged with the International Trade Commission. The results show that the higher the degree of intra-industry trade the more likely an industry will request protection from the ITC.