Do conditional cash transfer programs shift votes? Evidence from the Honduran PRAF

How do national social programs influence local voting? This study utilizes the experimental set up of a conditional cash transfer program to show that small, targeted cash transfers can have large electoral effects. The Honduran PRAF program allocated an average of $18 per capita per year to poor households within municipalities that were randomly assigned to receive the program. Although the program was administered at the national level, the program increased an incumbent mayor's re-election probabilities by 39%, without significantly influencing voting behavior in presidential elections. Moreover, the evidence suggests that transferring cash to poor households were more effective at increasing political support than interventions providing public goods for poor villages.     

Nonpoor children in head start: Explanations and implications

According to the Head Start Act (1998), children are income‐eligible for the program if their “families' incomes are below the poverty line.” There are a number of statutory exceptions to this general rule and, according to the Head Start Bureau, the result is that about 6 percent of the children in the program are not poor. But the major national surveys of Head Start families report that 30 percent or more of Head Start children are not “poor.” This paper confirms and explains the high proportion of nonpoor children in Head Start: at enrollment, at least 28 percent are not poor; at midyear, at least 32 percent are not poor; and by the end of the program year, at least 34 percent and perhaps more than 50 percent are not poor. Although the presence of some of these nonpoor children seems to be an appropriate or at least understandable aspect of running a national program with Head Start's current organizational structure, the presence of others seems much less warranted and raises substantial questions of horizontal equity. Moreover, taken together, the large number of nonpoor children suggests that the program is not well targeted to fulfill its mission of providing compensatory services to developmentally disadvantaged children—and reveals the essential ambiguity of Head Start's role in the wider world of early care and education. The income and program dynamics that have led to so many nonpoor children being in Head Start are also at work in many other programs, and, thus, our findings demonstrate the need to understand better how income eligibility is determined across various means‐tested programs.     

The Medicaid Mandates of the 1980s: An Intergovernmental Perspective

Medicaid, the health care program for the poor, has undergone significant changes in the last fifteen years. Many of those changes relate to the intergovernmental nature of the program. Medicaid is jointly operated, with the federal and state governments sharing program costs. Despite a set of program guidelines dictated by the federal government, states have traditionally had substantial latitude in Medicaid decisions. However, a series of developments in the 1980s led to increasing constraints on state Medicaid discretion, including federal mandates to expand Medicaid coverage. This article examines the inception and effectiveness of the Medicaid mandates from the perspective of interstate equity of health care services for poor families.     

Governmental failures in evaluating programs

Consider a government that adopts a program, sees a noisy signal about its success, and decides whether to continue the program. Suppose further that the success of a program is greater if people think it will be continued. This paper considers outcomes when government cannot commit. We find that welfare can be higher when information is poor, that government should at times commit to continuing a program it believes had failed, and that a government which fears losing power may acquire either too much or too little information.     

Interstate and Intergovernmental Factors Affecting the Conditions of Rural Bridges

Many of the nation's rural highway bridges are structurallydeficient, functionally inadequate, or both. Rural bridges areparticularly likely to be in poor condition in states wherethe federal government plays a small role in the highway program,where local governments play a large role in highway financing,and where the chief state transportation agency is a highwaydepartment rather than a department of transportation. The assignmentof responsibilities, then, appears to influence program performance.     

Early retirees under Social Security: health status and economic resources

Some proposals to change the Social Security program to ensure long-run solvency would reduce or eliminate benefits for early retirees. This article documents the health and financial resources of Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) beneficiaries aged 62-64. It identifies a substantial minority of early retirees who might be economically vulnerable if either the early eligibility age or normal retirement age was raised. Attention is directed at the extent to which poor health limits work in this age group and the extent to which curtailment of early OASI benefits might lead to increases in the Disability Insurance (DI) program rolls. Using a set of comprehensive health measures, we estimate that over 20 percent of OASI beneficiaries aged 62-64 have health problems that substantially impair their ability to work. This finding implies that in this age range, as many severely disabled persons receive OASI benefits as disability benefits. In fact, 12 percent of early beneficiaries would meet a more stringent criterion for being classified "disabled"--SSA's medical standard for disability benefits. The evidence therefore indicates that OASI functions as a substantial, albeit unofficial, disability program for early retirees. Compared with those who have no health problems or are less severely impaired, early OASI beneficiaries who meet the medical criteria for disability benefits are more likely to be living alone and more likely to be poor or "near poor." The great majority of the group--almost 80 percent--are women. Analysis of their earnings histories suggests that most of these beneficiaries do not satisfy the insured-status requirements for Disability Insurance benefits. The article considers the different roles of the OASI program and the DI program for health-impaired individuals aged 62-64. Disability modelers sometimes overlook an important aspect of program administration. Under customary screening procedures implemented in Social Security field offices, applicants for early OASI benefits who appear to be severely impaired simultaneously apply for DI benefits if they are disability insured. If they are found eligible for DI benefits, those applicants become DI beneficiaries. The implication is that raising the earliest entitlement age would have little impact on the DI rolls. Unless there are changes in eligibility criteria, the DI program would not serve as a safety net for many of the most severely disabled early retirees.     

An empirical investigation of interstate AFDC benefit competition

Claims that states which offer generous welfare benefits attract the poor and that some states pay low benefits intending to drive the poor away are neither uncommon nor entirely unfounded. This paper employs a two player (state) generalized game to model states' choice of a benefit level in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program. Migration by the poor in response to interstate differentials in earnings and welfare opportunities, and the subsequent changes in AFDC caseloads, drive this game. Estimation of the model (using 1979 data) suggests that states within approximately 750 miles of each other do engage in a benefit-setting game. The rival's initial number of poor and preference for non-AFDC consumption appear to be the more influential rival characteristics. These findings, while derived from a different methodological approach, are consistent with previous studies which indicate that welfare recipients tend to move toward higher benefit states. Such migration may impede the efficient spatial allocation of labor. The results also indicate that states will tend to offer lower benefits given recipient migration than would be the case otherwise. State jurisdiction over benefits consequently leads to underprovision of AFDC. Federalization of the AFDC program would improve efficiency in terms of the spatial allocation of labor and the provision of AFDC.     

The Social and Productive Impacts of Zambia's Child Grant

Accumulated evidence from dozens of cash transfer (CT) programs across the world suggests that there are few interventions that can match the range of impacts and cost‐effectiveness of a small, predictable monetary transfer to poor families in developing countries. However, individual published impact assessments typically focus on only one program and one outcome. This article presents two‐year impacts of the Zambian Government's Child Grant, an unconditional CT to families with children under age 5, across a wide range of domains including consumption, productive activity, and women and children's outcomes, making this one of the first studies to assess both protective and productive impacts of a national unconditional CT program. We show strong impacts on consumption, food security, savings, and productive activity. However, impacts in areas such as child nutritional status and schooling depend on initial conditions of the household, suggesting that cash alone is not enough to solve all constraints faced by these poor, rural households. Nevertheless, the apparent transformative effects of this program suggest that unconditional transfers in very poor settings can contribute to both protection and development outcomes.     

Black pioneers—do their moves to the suburbs increase economic opportunity for mothers and children?

Abstract

This paper examines whether housing vouchers help poor people improve their education and employment. The Gautreaux program uses housing certificates and counseling to help poor people move to white suburbs and to black urban areas. The people who move to suburbs face different opportunities and challenges than those moving within the city, so it is not certain which group will have better employment and education. We find that compared with city movers, the adult suburban movers have greatly improved employment, even after controls, but they have no different pay or hours worked. Among children, suburban movers are more likely than city movers to be (1) in school, (2) in college‐track programs, (3) in four‐year colleges, (4) in jobs, (5) in better‐paying jobs, and (6) in jobs with benefits. Just by moving people and without providing additional services, this program has uncovered capabilities of these low‐income people that were not evident in the city. Policy implications of this program are considered herein.     

Comment on Kirk Mcclure's “The low‐income housing tax credit program goes mainstream and moves to the suburbs”

Abstract

As McClure's article notes, the Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program has indeed gone mainstream. Given the tarnished reputation of many other federal low‐income housing programs, this is good news. It is also surprising in some ways considering the many programmatic flaws inherent in the LIHTC program.

As a point of departure, I look at why McClure and others are able to describe the program in a positive light despite its many flaws. I attribute this to the unique political culture of the United States, for which the LIHTC program is well suited. In addition, it sidesteps one of the thorniest problems that have bedeviled low‐income housing programs—the spatial isolation of poor minorities. Until the LIHTC program explicitly addresses this issue, however, any praise must be tempered by a great deal of caution.     

Mission Bogotá: pedagogical governance in a weak state

Wracked by crime and violence, Bogotá, Colombia adopted a unique urban security policy in 1998 called Mission Bogotá (MB). MB identifies the poor as ‘at risk’ of being violent. The program seeks to decrease crime by employing the poor and educating them on entrepreneurial urban citizenship, fomenting their sense of belonging to the city, a good work ethic, conflict resolution skills, and cosmopolitanism. Participants are then employed as citizen ‘guides,’ modeling their citizenship skills in public in order to instill exemplary citizenship in others by example. There is no evidence that MB reduces either crime or poverty. Nevertheless, the program establishes norms for ideal citizenship and structures the relationship between state and society. Based on one year of ethnographic research, I argue that MB uses pedagogy as a technology of governance to transfer responsibility for security provision from the state to society by making citizens responsible for their own security provision.     

Outside Funding and the Dynamics of Participation in Community Associations

The poor and disadvantaged are widely seen as having weak organizations and low rates of participation in community associations, impeding their political representation and economic advancement. Many policy initiatives aim to build civic participation among the disadvantaged by funding local community associations. Taking advantage of random assignment in a program supporting women's community associations in Kenya, we find little evidence that outside funding expanded organizational strength, but substantial evidence that funding changed group membership and leadership, weakening the role of the disadvantaged. The program led younger, more educated, and better-off women to enter the groups. New entrants, men, and more educated women assumed leadership positions. The departure of older women, the most socially marginalized demographic group, increased substantially. The results are generalized through a formal model showing how democratic decision making by existing members of community associations can generate long-run outcomes in which the poor and disadvantaged either do not belong to any associations or belong to weak organizations.     

The new supplemental security income—Implications for other benefit programs

Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a federal assistance program for the needy aged, blind and disabled, replaced the old federal-state welfare programs in January 1974. The enactment of this income floor, following a decade of revolutionary growth in aid to these three groups, may precipitate further program reform. First, the VA pension program aiding a beneficiary group similar to that of SSI, could be merged with SSI into a single federal program. Second, SSI may mark a turning point in the development of the social security system. A federally-administered income floor for the poor who are elderly or disabled can relieve social security of the welfare elements built into that system in an earlier period, allowing its original function of wage-replacement to be improved. A reorientation of social security vis-à-vis SSI would also allow a more equitable treatment of persons covered under one or both programs.     

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; A CASE OF LEARNING THROUGH EVALUATION?

The aim of environmental monitoring programs is to provide information useful in enforcing existing environmental statutes and helping to detect and prevent future problems. Despite the considerable number of monitoring programs being conducted, information on the quality of the nation's environment remains poor and of little use in supporting environmental policymaking. This paper examines the role evaluation has played in developing an effective nationwide environmental monitoring system. Background information on environmental monitoring programs is provided, followed by a discussion of the evaluations of past programs and recommendations made for improvement. One program in particular, the "Status and Trends" program administered by the National Oceanic and ATmospheric Administration, is examined to explore whether environmental monitoring demonstrates a case of learning through evaluation. "Status and Trends" is based on the experience gained during several of the previous monitoring programs and incorporates many of the recommendations spawned from earlier environmental programs. Whether the program demonstrates a case of learning through evaluation will depend on the ability of the program to evolve as we learn more about environmental quality and out ability to measure it.     

Stigma and other determinants of participation in TANF and Medicaid.

We developed a conceptual framework to examine the association between stigma, enrollment barriers (e.g., difficult application), knowledge, state policy, and participation in the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) and adult Medicaid programs. Survey data from 901 community health center patients, who were potential and actual participants in these programs, indicated that while images of the Medicaid program and its recipients were generally positive, stigma associated with welfare stereotypes reduced both TANF and Medicaid enrollment. Expectations of poor treatment when applying for Medicaid, enrollment barriers, and misinformation about program rules were also associated with reduced Medicaid enrollment. States that enacted strict welfare reform policies were potentially decreasing TANF participation, while states with more simplified and generous programs were potentially increasing Medicaid participation. The results suggest that the image of the adult Medicaid program remains tied to perceptions about welfare and provides guidance to policymakers about how to improve participation rates.     

Housing vouchers for the poor

Can the nation's social programs survive the push toward leaner appropriations, a greater use of the market, and a narrower definition of the needy? A program to provide housing assistance for the poor is proposed that fills all these requirements. Housing vouchers are found to be cheaper than other housing programs and more satisfactory for participants. Moreover, the political climate augers well for the new approach.     

Neighborhood change and the city of New York's ten‐year housing plan

Abstract

This article examines neighborhood changes associated with New York City's Ten‐Year Plan—the largest municipal housing program in the United States. We examine indicators of change, in the context of two possible hypotheses about the program's impact: (1) neighborhood revitalization, including improved physical and housing market conditions, as well as gentrification, and (2) the concentration of poor and welfare‐dependent households, as well as the possibility of residential segregation by race or ethnicity.

Our results present a mixed picture, with some evidence favoring both hypotheses, especially when parts of the city, particularly the South Bronx, are examined separately. Specifically, the program is associated with steep declines in the rate of boarded‐up buildings and some indications of increased home values, as well as rent burdens. However, it is also correlated with increases in maintenance deficiencies and a greater proportion of poor, single‐parent, and welfare‐dependent households, but there is little evidence of accentuated residential segregation.     

Britain and the Missile Gap: British Estimates on the Soviet Ballistic Missile Threat, 1957–61

Between 1957 and 1961, American National Intelligence Estimates overestimated the Soviets’ capabilities to produce and deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles, creating the ‘missile gap’ controversy. This article examines the contemporaneous estimates of British intelligence on the Soviet ballistic missile program, which were based upon very similar, if not the same, raw intelligence. It demonstrates that British estimates of the Soviet ICBM program were more accurate. However, this success did not continue in the analysis of the medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missile (M/IRBM) threat, which was relatively poor for most of the period. It concludes that the reasons for this lie in the different assumptions held by intelligence analysts on both sides of the Atlantic, and a degree of conservatism in both intelligence establishments.     

Changing Lives and Minds: Progress,Strategy, and Universal Basic Income

This article argues that demands and movements for universal basic income (UBI) are important components of a "transitional program," comprised of transitional demands, suitable for the twenty-first century. Transitional demands do two things: (1) they genuinely improve the lives of working people (and of the poor and otherwise oppressed peoples) in the short-term; and (2) they operate rhetorically and ideologically to convince people that the movements that achieve such a transitional demand can actually accomplish what they set out to do, thus hastening the development of a more comprehensive societal metamorphosis. Furthermore, this article focuses on the relationship between material progress and ideological rupture central to the radical theoretical justification for transitional demands and the transitional program, in the process of exploring the limitations of various contemporary (primarily left) criticisms of UBI."     

The viability of the thrift industry

Abstract

This paper argues that many widely referenced studies on the cost effectiveness of alternative assistance programs were conducted at a time when rental housing markets were depressed. Recent increases in rent appear to have reduced the apparent cost advantage that demand‐side subsidies hold over supply‐side interventions. In addition, the nonsubsidized poor increasingly must compete for a dwindling supply of low‐cost privately owned housing. Housing vouchers or similar demand subsidies may be appropriate in some contexts, but economic theory and recent empirical analysis suggest that such subsidies are “not the best at all times and under all situations.” Rather, the “best policy” depends on program targeting and the nature and extent of program‐induced price increases and externality effects. Since funding limitations currently block the creation of an entitlement housing assistance program, housing policy must balance the often competing goals of expanding the ability of participating low‐income households to pay for decent housing while at the same time working to limit the adverse effects that rent increases and the loss of low‐cost nonsubsidized stock have on households falling outside of the housing assistance safety net.