ASSESSING THE EXTENT OF CRIME DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BENEFITS: A REVIEW OF SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION EVALUATIONS*

Few criticisms of situational crime‐prevention (SCP) efforts are as frequent or prevalent as claims of displacement. Despite emerging evidence to the contrary, the prevailing sentiment seems to be that crime displacement is inevitable. This study examined 102 evaluations of situationally focused crime‐prevention projects in an effort to determine the extent to which crime displacement was observed. The results indicate that of the 102 studies that examined (or allowed for examination of) displacement and diffusion effects, there were 574 observations. Displacement was observed in 26 percent of those observations. The opposite of displacement, diffusion of benefit, was observed in 27 percent of the observations. Moreover, the analysis of 13 studies, which allowed for assessment of overall outcomes of the prevention project while taking into account spatial displacement and diffusion effects, revealed that when spatial displacement did occur, it tended to be less than the treatment effect, suggesting that the intervention was still beneficial. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.     

A Time-Series Analysis of Terrorism: Intervention,Displacement, and Diffusion of Benefits

This paper discusses the perception that displacement in terrorism is inevitable; that antiterrorism efforts merely relocate terrorism in some way. Using quarterly time-series data from the Global Terrorism Database (1994–2013) and the vector autoregression framework, we test the following hypothesis: the target-hardening efforts within the United States (US) after September, 11, 2001 reduce attacks on domestic US targets, but increase attacks on US targets abroad. To provide a more comprehensive test, we also provide dynamic impact factors and variance decompositions. The results of this intervention analysis show no support for displacement, and instead provide support for a diffusion-of benefits hypothesis. We also discuss how criminological and especially crime-prevention knowledge can guide and encompass the study of terrorism.     

Technology, Criminology and Crime Science

Developments in technology have changed the environment of crime, which, in some of its new forms, poses a serious threat to society. At the same time the technologies of crime control are being transformed. If criminology is to respond adequately to this changed environment, it must make radical changes in its mission, its theories and its methodologies, the collective result of which would be to make the discipline more directly relevant to crime control and prevention. This would enhance the effectiveness of these activities and would also open up new and exciting career opportunities for criminologists. If criminology does not change, it will become eclipsed by crime science and will find it increasingly hard to survive – even in the protected environment of universities.     

Gating Alleys to Reduce Crime: A Meta-Analysis and Realist Synthesis

Alley gates are designed to limit access to alleys and the crime opportunities they afford. Informed by the acronym EMMIE we sought to: (1) systematically review the evidence on whether alley gates are Effective at reducing crime, (2) identify the causal Mechanisms through which alley gates are expected to work and the conditions that Moderate effectiveness, and (3) collate information on the Implementation and Economic costs of alley gating. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that alley gating is associated with modest but significant reductions in burglary, with little evidence of spatial displacement. We also identified six mechanisms through which alley gates might plausibly reduce crime, and the conditions in which such mechanisms are most likely to be activated.     

Crime is a Social Problem

This article seeks to place the study of crime and criminals in the social policy context. Criminal careers research is critically evaluated and modern social trends are outlined as a background to an exploration of the interaction between criminological research findings and social policies for youth in trouble. A contrast is drawn between individualised explanations of criminal behaviour and approaches which seek to place crime in its situational and social context.     

论网上交易犯罪原因

网上交易犯罪是一种经济利益驱动型犯罪，其犯罪成因可通过经济犯罪基本模型进行研究。作为常见的经济犯罪成因分析模型，犯罪成本收益理论认为：网上交易犯罪与犯罪预期收益有关，犯罪预期收益越大，犯罪越可能发生；与直接成本、心理成本、道德成本、竞争成本等间接成本有关，成本越小，犯罪越可能发生：与犯罪被惩罚的概率有关，概率越小，犯罪越可能发生；与被发现犯罪被惩治因数有关，已发现犯罪受到惩罚的概率小，其犯罪可能性也越大；还与个人心理恐惧常数有关，心理恐惧常数越小的个人，其犯罪概率越大。所以，可通过犯罪收益、直接成本、间接成本、机会成本、侦查措施、个体控制等几个方面进行控制犯罪。     

The Centrality of Theory in Modern Day Crime Prevention: Developments,Challenges, and Opportunities

Theory matters in crime prevention. Indeed, but this is hardly the full story. Crime prevention is oftentimes viewed as atheoretical—not grounded in the etiology of crime and offending. Reasons abound for this view, and the recent interest in an evidence-based approach to policy-making has been at the forefront. This article reviews the role that theory plays in modern day crime prevention, with a special focus on the three main crime prevention strategies: developmental, community, and situational. The review identifies a number of key challenges and opportunities for making theory more central to crime prevention. It suggests that the classification system employed in situational crime prevention has allowed for a more explicit connection between sound theory and prevention techniques, and may provide important lessons for developmental and community crime prevention.     

我国青少年犯罪及其防治探讨

本文认为由于对青少年犯罪问题没有足够重视,致使青少年教育工作存在不少问题:青少年违法犯罪增多,且呈低龄化、团伙化、暴力化,手段残忍,社会危害大。在此,笔者探讨了青少年犯罪率上升的原因,并提出了防治犯罪的几点对策。     

Counting the cost of crime in Italy

We gauge the cost of crime in Italy by concentrating on a subset of offences covering about 64% of total recorded crimes in the year 2006. Following the breakdown of costs put forward by Brand and Price, we focus on the costs in anticipation, as a consequence, and in response to a specific offence. The estimated total social cost is more than €38 billion, which amounts to about 2.6% of Italy's GDP. To show the usefulness of these measures, we borrow the elasticity estimates from recent studies concerning the determinants of crime in Italy and calculate the cost associated with the surge in crime fuelled by unemployment and pardons. Indeed, in both cases such costs are substantial, implying that they should no longer be skipped when assessing the relative desirability of public policies towards crime.     

The effects of closed-circuit television on crime: meta-analysis of an English national quasi-experimental multi-site evaluation

This article reports results obtained in an English national quasi-experimental multi-site evaluation of 14 closed-circuit television (CCTV) projects in residential areas, town and city centers, a city hospital, and car parks (parking lots). Both police and victimization data were collected before and after the installation of CCTV in target, control and buffer areas, and police Divisions. The results showed that CCTV was effective in reducing crimes in train station car parks but not in city centers or residential areas, seemed to be effective in reducing vehicle crimes (but not other types of crimes), and was most effective when the degree of coverage by CCTV was high and when CCTV was combined with other interventions such as improved lighting. Implications for situational crime prevention theory are drawn. There was no evidence of displacement or diffusion of benefits. It is concluded that CCTV needs to be implemented more effectively, based on an analysis of the crime problem and its causes, and needs to be evaluated using a randomized experimental design.

Measuring the Geographical Displacement and Diffusion of Benefit Effects of Crime Prevention Activity

The displacement of crime is an important criminological phenomenon. However, while there has been theoretical discussion of this issue in the research literature, there has been little in the way of either standardized empirical work that investigates the incidence of displacement or in the development of techniques that can be used to measure it. In the current paper we discuss a new technique, the weighted displacement quotient (WDQ), that was developed to measure the geographical displacement of crime. A critical feature of the rationale is that displacement can only be attributed to crime prevention activity if crime is reduced in the target area considered. Thus, the WDQ not only measures what occurs in a buffer (displacement) zone but also relates changes in this area to those in the target area. Part of the appeal of the measure is that it can be used either with aggregate or disaggregate crime data and for any geographical boundary selected, provided the appropriate data are available. In addition to detecting displacement, when detailed data are available, the technique can also be used to identify where the effect was most prominent. The WDQ can equally be used to measure the diffusion of benefit of any crime prevention activity. A series of examples are presented for illustration purposes.     

Think Nationally,Act Locally: The Municipal-Level Effects of the National Crime Prevention Program in Finland

This paper gauges the effects of the National Crime Prevention Program (NCPP) on the level of crime in Finland. The research design involves comparisons between municipalities that vary in terms of their participation in the NCPP. Is this characteristic related to improvements in community safety? The analyses utilize data from victim surveys as well as police statistics. Findings from each type of analysis suggest that active participation in the national initiative has not resulted in reduced levels of crime and violence. The study concludes with a set of recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the NCPP.     

The Market for Scientific Crime Prevention: A Comparative Study of Canada and Venezuela

Crime prevention is an activity that, sooner or later, requires the concourse of science. But the dictates of science may not mesh well with the social, institutional and political considerations that are persistent and powerful determinants of collective action. To the extent that they are ignored, crime prevention is less scientific and more pragmatic. Using a marketing metaphor, this paper examines selected aspects of the supply of and demand for scientific crime prevention in Canada and Venezuela from 1949 to the present. In both countries, academic entrepreneurs are revealed to be a necessary factor in the sale of crime prevention to government. On the demand side, governments adopt and adapt crime prevention policies in relation to their broader perspective on social problems and social change. However, rising crime rates and climates of urgency reduce the attractiveness of crime prevention. Scientific crime prevention is easier to sell when crime rates are stable or declining.     

Revolving Roles in Drug-Related Crime: The Cost of Chronic Drug Users as Victims and Perpetrators

Numerous studies have established a strong connection between the use of illicit drugs and the commission of other illegal activities, including both predatory and property crimes. No study, however, has examined the cost of crimes associated with drug users both as victims and as perpetrators. In the present study, recent data were analyzed from a targeted sample of chronic drug users (CDUs) and a matched sample of non-drug users (NDUs) in Miami-Dade County, Florida, to estimate the incremental cost of crime associated with CDU. Two separate models were employed to estimate (1) the probability of being a victim or a perpetrator of crime and (2) the cost of crime for both situations. The cost measures were transformed to reduce the influence of extreme outliers, and a smearing technique was used to compare the cost of crime for CDUs relative to NDUs. The findings illustrate that criminal activity among CDUs is circular, extensive, and costly. Implications for law enforcement, criminal justice policy, and substance abuse treatment are discussed.     

论视频监控的犯罪预防功能及犯罪侦查价值

各国的犯罪预防理论发展至今,已经形成了比较完善的犯罪预防体系,主要包括司法预防、社会预防和情景预防三种模式。在我国的犯罪预防体系中,向来重视司法预防和社会预防,而对情景预防关注不够,情景预防措施尚不完善。作为一种对犯罪的干预,视频监控是一种对情境犯罪的干预,研究发掘其在犯罪预防中的作用对完善犯罪预防体系具有重要意义。同时,视频监控系统在犯罪侦查方面也具有重要作用。     

An overview of seized illegal wildlife entering the United States

The current study analyses seizures made at US ports of entry between 2003 and 2013, with the aim to identify concentrations of illegal wildlife imports into the United States. Findings show that 94% of species seized belong to six groups – mammals, molluscs, birds, reptiles, fish and coral – with mammals and reptiles making up more than half of all seizure incidents. Additionally, most seized wildlife is imported as leather products, medicinal products and as meat. The majority of seizures emanate from six countries, and illegal wildlife is primarily brought to the US via airline baggage. Temporal trends of wildlife seizures point to increases in the seizures of all groups of species, with the exception of birds. Based on these findings, we recommend using situational crime prevention techniques at US ports of entry to reduce opportunities that enable this trade.     

犯罪对象概念的反思与重构

刑法学者之所以在不同场合赋予犯罪对象不同含义,是因为我国刑法理论中的传统犯罪对象概念存在一定的缺陷。有必要重构犯罪对象概念,将“犯罪行为直接作用的具体人和物”与“犯罪客体的直接物质承担者”两种含义适当分离,在理论上区分为直接犯罪对象与间接犯罪对象,二者作为犯罪实行行为指向的事物,有时可发生部分重合,但功能上并不相同,不可相互替代。