The impact of interest rate on the demand for credit in Ghana

This article investigates the impact of financial liberalization on the demand for credit in Ghana. It contributes by making suggestions pertaining to questions on the effectiveness of interest rate liberalization in driving private sector demand for credit both in the short and the long‐run, as well as the speed of adjustments to equilibrium after the implementation of the financial liberalization programme. The study results indicate that interest rate has no significant impact on the demand for credit both in the short‐run and long‐run. Moreover, inflation has a negative significant effect on the demand for credit in the short‐run. The results also suggest that about 66% of disequilibrium from the preceding year is corrected in the current year. However, these findings seem to indicates that the financial market in Ghana is not fully competitive. The oligopolistic and noncompetitive financial system may be attributable to the extreme minimum capital requirement and the emerging consolidation of commercial banks through government takeovers as well as the various credit rationing practices by banks aimed at reducing the risk of adverse selection and insolvency.     

Political Influences on Monetary Policy 1914–84

This study examines political, institutional and economic influences on monetary policy in the long run. A monetary policy reaction function is estimated, which focuses principally on the influence of the administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve on outcomes; these influences are estimated together with a variety of economic and political controls. The findings show that partisan control of the White House is particularly important in explaining variations in the growth of the quantity of money over time. Republican control of the White House is associated with tighter money, and Democratic control with looser money, but there are exceptions. Finally, the indirect influence of partisanship on the economic variables in the reaction function suggest that the total effects are stronger than the direct effects alone.     

Is the causal relation between foreign direct investment,trade, and economic growth complement or substitute? The case of African countries

This study examines causal nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth for 25 African countries within a model that also takes into consideration trade openness using more recent panel data set over the period 1980–2018. We used panel bootstrapping cointegration techniques that account for cross‐sectional dependence to test whether there is a long‐run cointegration relationship or not. The Granger causality approach is employed to conduct predictive analysis among the panel series. Our findings indicate the presence of a long‐run equilibrium nexus between the variables, and we found a bidirectional causality between foreign direct investment, trade openness, and economic growth. This study provides an insight for governments and policymakers in this region to restructure FDI and trade policies in such a way that its positive spillover would spread across the rural areas and local firms, thereby leading to an all‐inclusive sustainable economic growth and development of African countries in the long run.     

Fiscal decentralization and the size of government: a European country empirical analysis

This article is an original contribution to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal decentralization and government size. Using a panel data set of the EU-15 countries, we analyse the effect of decentralization on aggregate, national and subnational government sizes by separating the long run effects of decentralization from its short run dynamics. In the long run, tax autonomy reduces central expenditure but increases—and to a greater extent—subnational public expenditure, leading to higher aggregate public expenditure. We find also that vertical imbalances tend to increase the sizes of subnational, national and aggregate governments.     

Local government grants and income tax revenue: Redistributive politics in Norway 1900–1990

An important aspect of the welfare state is public provision of private goods, primarily education and health care. In Norway the provision of these services has been organized through the local public sector. The development of the welfare state has to a large extent been the development of welfare communes. The important revenue sources of the local and county governments, grants and income tax revenue, have been controlled nationally, and the paper addresses the determinants of these revenues during 1900–1990. The approach combines a demand model of local public services emphasizing price and income-elasticities with a political economy model of central government ideology and strength. The decision making is understood as bargaining between the government and interest groups, and the political structure consequently is of importance for the policy outcome. The analysis shows how politics matter, and the results indicate that a minority coalition government implies 30% more grant and income tax revenue to local and county governments than one party majority in the long run.     

Controlling money during socialist economic reform: the Chinese experience

Contrary to the easy job that some conservative economists imagine, the task faced by the socialist monetary authority in controlling the money supply during economic reform is a daunting one, as recent experience in China indicates. It is difficult to estimate the demand for money in the mixed system that has emerged from the reform process, with all its structural disequilibria. Given prevailing economic and political interferences, keeping the money supply within targets is also beset with problems. Monetary issues have not received much attention in the conventional discourse about socialist economics, before or during reform. Hence the Chinese central bank often has to take uninformed action on events that it cannot effectively control. The results could be very serious, even tragic. In any case, it seems that the bank should not shoulder the main blame.     

The Revenue Impact of Repeated Tax Amnesties

Proponents argue that tax amnesties raise revenue both in the short and long run, by bringing former nonfilers back into the tax system. Opponents contend that amnesties produce little short‐run revenue and weaken incentives for long‐run tax compliance. However, over the last 21 years, 27 states offered tax amnesties for a second or third time. While previous research has estimated the impact of specific tax amnesties, none have estimated how the impact changes when offered repeatedly. We find that these additional tax amnesties generate less short‐run revenue than predecessors and tend to magnify revenue losses associated with disincentives for long‐run tax compliance.     

A Nolan Committee for the German ethics infrastructure?

Abstract. An international trend towards establishing and conforming standards of ethical behaviour in the public sector has repeatedly been stated. Germany, however, remains surprisingly reluctant to adopt such recommendations. This article argues that the likelihood of German decision makers implementing new, and especially soft, ethics measures depends on the demand for such measures, on the one hand, and their supply, on the other. The analysis shows that contradictory forces have an impact on Germany. The demand for new ethics measures is relatively low as a high level of hard ethics measures incorporated in the longstanding formal legal system of rules and regulations make the implementation of new measures seem unnecessary. Also, the demand for soft ethics measures is less marked in Germany than in the United Kingdom. This comparatively weak pressure meets the natural inertia caused by cognitive and institutional path–dependency in institutional choices of political decision makers. On the other hand, external bodies (such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development – OECD) provide blueprints for soft ethics measures and encourage the implementation of uniform standards across countries. Which of these forces will prevail in the long run, however, cannot be deduced from the present situation.     

Which among twin deficits hypothesis,twin divergence,and Ricardian's equivalence hold in a developing country?

South Africa witnesses the perpetual increase in budget deficit that hampers its ability for inclusive economic growth while on the other hand facing trade balance instability. To realise stability in the economy and sustainable yet inclusive economic growth, the two deficits, namely, budget and trade deficits, should be closely monitored. The study examined the empirical relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in South Africa in the postapartheid era, employing time series data from 1994 to 2016. The autoregressive distribution lag approach was employed to examine the existence of a cointegration between the set of variables, both in the short‐ and the long‐run relationships and together with the error correction model. It was found that there is a significant and positive relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit in the short run. However, in the long run, the Ricardian's equivalence holds in South Africa. The study recommends that policies aimed at reducing budget and trade deficits should take into account inflation and aim to increase some macroeconomic variables such as fixed investment to ultimately achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Political Decentralization and Technological Innovation: Testing the Innovative Advantages of Decentralized States

Are politically decentralized states better at fostering long‐run technological innovation than centralized states? Societies with decentralized governments are widely seen as agile, competitive, and well structured to adapt to innovation's gale of creative destruction. Meanwhile, centralized states, even when democratic, have come to be viewed as rigid and thus hostile to the risks, costs, and change associated with new technology, or prone to cling too long to foolhardy or outdated technological projects. Therefore government decentralization is often perceived as a necessary institutional foundation for encouraging long‐run technological innovation. However, in this article, I analyze data on international patent activity, scientific publications, and high‐technology exports, and show that there exists little evidence for an aggregate relationship between government structure and technological innovation.     

The Growth and Stability of the Local Tax Revenue in Japan

This paper estimates the elasticity of the local tax revenue in Japan and analyzes the growth and stability of the Japanese local tax system. The main estimated results are as follows. The growth taxes in the long run are the Individual Enterprise Tax and the Fixed Asset Tax. There are no stable taxes in the short run. The total amount of prefectural tax revenue is low growth in the long run and unstable in the short run. The total amount of municipal tax revenue is low growth in the long run and neutral in the short run. The total amount of the local tax revenue in the prefecture and the municipality does not have stability and growth.     

Monetized time-space: derivatives – money's 'new imaginary'?

This paper examines some of the ways in which the everyday is becoming connected into the world of finance, a process facilitated through so-called derivatives.The increasing use of derivatives is traced to the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement and the ways in which innovative developments in financial engineering were used to overcome the uncertainties of interest rate, currency and price risks that grew apace from the early 1970s. We argue that these risks are not ‘more of the same’.They are qualitatively different and run deeper through the highly integrated financial markets of today. And, as later parts of the paper argue taking their cue from the works of Paul Virilio and Georg Simmel, notably the latter’s Philosophy of Money , the manner in which these risks interact and the speed of their interaction suggest the emergence of new forms of money, a new monetization of time-space. The paper then moves on to consider how the calculative practices that lie at the heart of derivatives involve a process of socialization of the understanding of the risks that new money forms are made to negotiate successfully. The ‘idea of money’ – of what it is now supposed to be capable of doing with and across time-space – thus stems from a ‘new money imaginary’. The paper concludes by reemphasizing the reasons why, when understood through areading of Virilio and Simmel, derivatives should be viewed as representing new forms of money.     

The Confidence Game: Roping in a Globalized World

This is the last in a series of five articles focusing on how Bernard Madoff’s confidence game (con game) worked. It examines the international money collecting activities by ropers for Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities (BLMIS). Before globalization, Madoff’s con game brought him millions of dollars; after globalization, it began bringing him billions, making him remarkably successful until his run of luck was brought to a sudden halt by the worldwide economic downturn.     

Moving Up,Moving Out,or Going Nowhere? A Study of the Employment Patterns of Young Women and the Implications for Welfare Mothers

Conventional wisdom holds that women on welfare will be better off in the long run if they take a job, even if it means initially having less money to spend on their and their children's needs. Underlying this thinking is the belief that women who take low‐paying jobs will eventually move up to higher paying jobs either with their current employer or by changing employers. This paper examines the employment transitions of young women focusing on the likelihood that women who turn to the welfare system for support will make the transition from low‐paying to high‐paying jobs. The data are drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Based on the experiences of women who never received welfare, an estimated one‐quarter of young women who received welfare could be firmly established in jobs paying more than $9.50 an hour by ages 26 and 27. An additional 40 percent would work steadily but in low‐paying jobs, and more than one‐third would work only sporadically. © 2001 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Is there an export‐ or import‐led growth in emerging countries? A case of BRICS countries

The BRICS economies could be considered a world number one trading group in one respect and emerging economies in another. The study applied both Johansen cointegration methodology for the long‐run relationship and Granger causality test for the direction of causality for the period of 1979–2018. The study findings confirmed that the growth‐led exports (GLE) hypothesis model is relevant for India, South Africa, and China, while exports‐led growth (ELG) hypothesis model is relevant for both Brazil and Russia. The growth‐led imports (GLI) hypothesis model is relevant for Brazil, India, China, and South Africa, while import‐led growth (ILG) hypothesis model is relevant for Russia. Hence, based on the findings, we confirmed that trade‐led growth hypothesis is valid. Finally, the results show that domestic and global demand contributes to a larger trade; countries that are labor‐abundant generate employment and foster economic growth.     

The effect of trade openness on economic growth: Some empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in a panel of five emerging market economies, covering the data period from 1993 to 2016. Based on the panel estimation methods, the empirical results confirm the long‐run relationship among trade openness, economic growth, financial development, inflation, labour force, and technology, whereas the findings of long‐run elasticities show that trade openness has a positive considerable impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non‐causality tests indicate the presence of a bidirectional causality between economic growth and inflation and a unidirectional causality that runs from economic growth to trade openness and economic growth to financial development in the short run. Finally, the findings suggested that trade openness plays a substantial role in promoting economic growth while also promoting economic development in these five emerging market economies.     

Impact of industrialization,urbanization, and financial development on energy consumption: Empirical evidence from India

This article examines the relationship between energy consumption, industrialization, urbanization, economic growth, and financial development in India from 1980 to 2017. The ARDL bound testing; Johansen & Juselius cointegration approach and Gregory & Hansen structural break cointegration technique confirm the long‐run relationship exists among variables. The result of long‐run analysis indicates that the industrialization, urbanization and economic growth play a vital role in increasing energy consumption in India. However, financial development indicates negative relation to energy consumption. The coefficient of error correction term is negative and statistically significant at 1% confidence level, it means last‐period's deviation from a long‐run equilibrium. It is clear from the results of Toda‐Yamamoto Causality, there is a unidirectional causality running from industrialization to energy consumption. However, there is bidirectional causality showing between energy consumption and urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption, and urbanization and Economic growth. Urbanization facilitates fuel switching, as decentralized rural energy sources like traditional wood‐burning are replaced by centralized energy sources. From the above findings, we argue that proper awareness should be made at the urban center regarding use of energy saving equipments and public infrastructure should be improved to harness the effect of urban agglomeration. As rapid development of energy intensive‐industries and economic activity in Indian economy, there is need of energy efficient technology in industry in order to reduce energy consumption.     

基于世界粮食危机的我国粮食安全问题的新思考

世界粮食安全面临着新挑战,而中国粮食安全中也存在着隐患,即粮食生产逐步恢复,但继续稳定增产的难度加大;粮食供需矛盾突出,粮食的供求将长期处于紧平衡状态;粮食宏观调控面临着新问题,粮食危机进一步加深。化解我国粮食危机应扩大粮食综合生产能力,提高粮食总体产量;增加粮食供给,缓和粮食供需矛盾;健全粮食宏观调控机制,保障国家粮食安全。     

Forecasting General Fund Revenue: An Analysis of Idaho FY 1998 to FY 2011

Forecasting state general fund revenue (GFR) though business cycles means possibly confusing a cycle with an underlying long‐run trend. Relative to the actual revenue, the mean squared error of the academic, legislative, governor's, the growth path (GP), and Holt‐Winters (HW) forecasts for Idaho GFR was not significantly different than the naïve forecast's; the Combined GP‐HW forecast has significantly smaller mean square error. The GP model (ARIMA 1, 2, 1) produced a short‐run elasticity of revenue with respect to income of 1.05 (±0.05). The best GFR forecasts combined a HW two‐step‐ahead level with a GP one‐step‐ahead trend that provided a forecast of GFR with the smallest root mean square error between FY 1998 and FY 2009. A budget stabilization fund needs to be 34–40 percent of GFR for GFR to sustain growth at the state's long‐run expansion rate during a contraction.     

The management of institutional innovation: Lessons from transferring the land grant model to India

The US and India collaborated on a successful institution building programme in the 1950s and 1960s to develop capacity for agricultural education, research and extension. This paper analyses that process for lessons that might bear on efforts to build similar institutions in other countries. India was an especially favourable environment due to the sophistication of its scientific base, the openness of its leaders to institutional innovation, the presence of public sector enterpreneurs to mobilize support for reform, and a food crisis that made it urgent to find new technology. The US did not fund institutional changes that had little demand in India, but it did influence Indian preferences over the long run by creating several mechanisms to exchange information about the American land grant system. These exchange mechanisms enhanced India's capacity for agricultural science and, less often noticed, contributed to the political support essential to new institutions.