基于政治资源诅咒效应的地方政府债务风险形成机制及治理

首次基于政治资源诅咒效应理论,从融资平台视角分析了地方债务风险形成机制。发现地方政府融资平台存在政治资源诅咒效应,即相对丰富的政治资源导致地方政府融资平台成为地方政府追求政绩的工具,弱化了风险控制意识。同时为维系政治资源较高的投入,增加了地方政府利用政府债寻租的机会,挤占了地方债有效利用的空间,从而导致地方政府债务存在较高风险。从控制政治资源关联度、优化地方政府融资平台监管机制、构建风险管控体系及加强公司治理等四个层面提出相应的地方债务风险治理措施。     

地方政府融资平台市场化转型:进展、挑战与建议——基于珠三角地区四地市的调研

正中央为防范地方隐性债务风险,明确要求剥离融资平台公司政府融资职能,融资平台公司不得新增政府债务。这意味着融资平台公司的政府信用被抽离,地方政府不再允许新增融资平台类隐性债务。而且预算法明确了发行地方政府债券为地方政府融资的主要方式。融资政     

地方政府债务管理的国际经验与启示

目前,在世界53个主要国家中,有37个允许地方政府举债,其地方政府债务管理的经验做法,对于完善我国地方融资平台债务管理和建立风险防范机制,具有较强的借鉴意义。一、国外地方政府债务的主要类型市政债。在资本市场较为发达的国家,市政债是地方政府债务的主要形式。根据偿债资金来源的不同,市政债券可分为一般责任型市政债、收益型市政债和混合型市政债。一般责任型市政债是指以地方政府的税收收入作为偿债资金来源的市政债券,由于不与特定项目相联系,     

地方政府融资平台市场化转型：进展、挑战与建议——基于珠三角地区四地市的调研

<正>中央为防范地方隐性债务风险,明确要求剥离融资平台公司政府融资职能,融资平台公司不得新增政府债务。这意味着融资平台公司的政府信用被抽离,地方政府不再允许新增融资平台类隐性债务。而且预算法明确了发行地方政府债券为地方政府融资的主要方式。融资政     

我国地方政府融资平台的问题及对策

近年来,地方政府的债务问题逐渐成为人们关注的焦点,与地方债务问题息息相关的是地方政府融资平台的问题。我国地方政府融资平台一方面解决了地方政府融资困难的问题,另一方面伴随着融资平台数量和规模的迅速扩张,其带来的问题和风险也愈发明显。为保证宏观经济的平稳运行,亟须尽快解决融资平台带来的问题,及时化解风险。从分析融资平台现状入手,归纳出目前地方政府融资平台中积累的问题,通过分析原因,最后归纳出相应的对策和建议。     

地方政府融资平台风险及其治理

近年来,地方政府融资平台在增强地方政府财力,加快基础设施建设,推动社会事业发展和拉动内需等领域作出了重要贡献。但是由于地方政府融资平台从设立之日起就有着设立不规范、企业管理制度落后、信息披露不完全、杠杆率偏高过大、融资渠道单一、现金流覆盖偏低的缺陷,最终可能产生不良贷款率提升、地方财政间接还款压力增大、国进民退、经济波动等风险。规范现有地方政府融资平台,实现地方政府融资平台长期健康发展,需要尽快清理现有地方政府融资平台及其债务,同时着力构建地方政府融资平台治理的长效机制,使地方政府从过度依赖融资平台中解脱出来。     

财政分权框架下的地方政府债务问题研究

我国的地方政府债务问题因与不完善的财政金融体制和地方官员激励扭曲联系在一起而更加错综复杂:没有形成合理的地方政府债务市场；地方政府债务市场是一个政府自身作为需求方占主导地位的买方市场；高达7万亿的地方融资平台债务作为我国地方政府债务的最大组成部分,是我国新出现的地方政府债务结构特征；地方政府债务市场缺乏透明度；地方政府债务存在着公平性不足、效率低下的问题等.大量非公益性债务的存在意味着地方政府过多地参与到私人市场,或者是挤占了更有效率的市场行为.我国地方政府债务管理的难点是我国金融市场治理缺陷和财政“预算软约束”容易造成地方政府投资行为“越位”,形成债务风险.控制风险,需要建立合适的地方政府债务管理框架,针对需求和供给两方面的均衡扭曲因素制定相应的政策.其中债务管理体制建设的重点是在管理框架构建上控制债务总量、调整结构和建立科学的监管模式.     

地方政府融资平台贷款应予以规范

地方政府融资平台贷款能够“集中力量办大事”，有力的推动了各地城市化建设步伐，特别是在当前为保增长、扩内需、促稳定及应对国际金融危机等方面发挥了重要作用。但地方政府融资平台贷款的无序迅猛增长，也潜伏着不小的风险，应予以规范。本文在认真分析地方政府投融资平台贷款潜在的风险的基础上，提出相关建议。     

建立地方政府债务风险长效管理机制

当前,我国地方政府债务规模急速膨胀,债务风险凸显,债务问题已成为影响经济社会稳定和发展的重要因素。本文从地方政府债务风险现状入手,在借鉴国外有关防范债务风险经验的基础上,提出了改革现行管理体制,明确中央与地方政府间关系;改革现行财税体制,适当加大主体税种的地方留成比例;改革政府预算体制,将地方债全面纳入政府预算进行反映和管理;改革财政转移支付制度,加大一般性转移支付比例;建立地方债务约束机制,改革地方官员考核制度;逐步剥离融资平台承担的政府融资职能,重新对各融资平台进行定位等措施。     

我国省级地方政府债务风险影子银行化的成因、途径及其控制

运用"两线三区"法剖析了当前省级地方政府的债务构成,发现政府间接债务和融资平台公司债务存在比较明显的影子银行化问题,而且债务负担率较高的省级政府非信贷渠道的影子银行融资规模更高。在分析省级地方政府债务影子银行化成因的基础上,为了控制省级政府债务风险的影子银行化程度,需要从财政和金融风险交叉传染的路径中斩断风险传播的链条、从风险传导的前端和末端链条加强对省级政府及其融资平台公司和开展影子银行业务金融机构的风险监管。     

Local interests,central leadership,and the passage of TRA86

The U.S. federalist public economy is an ever-evolving system of financing and expenditure responsibilities between local, state, and federal governments. The past decades have seen a significant centralization of responsibility for the financing of state and local public services through grants-in-aid and federal tax subsidies. This article advances a model of local constituent influence in central government fiscal policies which seeks to explain this trend, and then examines how strong executive branch and congressional leadership might begin to control the local pressures for central government financing. TRA86 is offered as one example in which this leaedership proved effective. The general lesson is that good fiscal policy in federalist public economies requires not only capable local governments, but central government political institutions with the strength to meet national needs as well.     

投融资平台公司信用风险与地方政府信用失序——以法律为视角

法律冲突与制度扭曲环境下的投融资平台公司,从诞生之日起即具有结构性信用风险,而平台公司的信用风险与地方政府的信用具有相关性,其所具有的传导效应构成地方政府信用风险、宏观经济结构调整风险、土地政策调整风险、银行系统风险、财政风险这样一条具有多米诺骨牌效应的信用风险链并或将成为推手。加强地方政府的信用治理,从财政体制上、法律制度上规范地方政府信用秩序是防范平台公司信用风险的根本手段。     

Sozialpolitik im Finanzföderalismus – Hartz IV als Antwort auf die Krise der Kommunalfinanzen

In the literature on welfare state reforms, continental welfare states like Germany have been considered to be resistant to reform. However, recently scholars started to argue that new reform coalitions and policy learning have led to a major restructuring of the German welfare state. In this article we introduce a third argument into the debate and claim that the recent reforms can only be understood by taking into account the specific structure of welfare state financing in Germany. Focusing on the reform of unemployment benefits we show that the crisis of the widespread cost-shifting practice between the federal budget, the social insurance and local authority budgets contributed to fiscal problems which could ultimately only be resolved by engaging in a fundamental restructuring of the financing architecture of welfare provisions for the long-term unemployed.     

Toward a Theory of Fiscal Slack

Though the fiscal slack literature has advanced over the past decade, more research is needed for a systematic understanding of the determinants and uses of fiscal reserves at the local level. This paper reviews theory and empirical evidence on the determinants of municipal fiscal reserves offers a conceptual framework for analyzing fiscal reserves accumulation and tests a series of hypotheses using a panel of 2007–2012 financial data for 145 U.S. cities from 21 states. Generalized least squares models show that unassigned general fund balances and unrestricted net assets are positively associated with general fund surpluses in the previous year and with local household incomes, while not being related to measures of fiscal risk, revenue effort, and voter characteristics. Overall, the findings suggest a relatively stronger influence of the capacity to save than the need to save on local fiscal reserves.     

The centralization vs decentralization tug of war and the emerging narrative of fiscal federalism for social policy in India

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the relationship between fiscal federalism and social policy in India through an analysis of the effects of a recent effort to increase fiscal decentralization to state governments on the nature of social policy investment at the sub-national level. Through its analysis, this paper highlights the persistence of a strong centralisation bias in India’s fiscal architecture for social policy. We trace this centralisation bias to the political and administrative dynamics of the federal bargain. The peculiar dynamics of this bargain have created a context where the core goal of centralization – to ensure equity – is undermined while the expectation of decentralization – greater accountability through alignment of expenditure with local needs and preferences, fails to take root. India is thus likely to continue to witness significant regional variation in social policy outcomes, despite a centralised financing architecture.     

New Financing Instruments for State and Local Capital Facilities

Municipal bonds traditionally have been classified into two general types: term bonds, paid off in a lump sum at the end of the term of the loan, and serial bonds, retired in annual installments. Beginning in the late 1970s, however, a number of new fiscal instruments have been devised to meet the changing needs of the municipal bond market. While these new financing techniques are not a panacea, their careful application may uncover some real opportunities for meeting the needs of local government for expanded capital facilities.     

Oil,elections and fiscal transparency

How does governments’ ability to gain financing from oil income affect their behaviour? Numerous studies have explored the effects of oil wealth on countries’ political characteristics, especially the level of democracy. Oil has also been associated with a significant electoral incumbency advantage across different political regimes. However, the relationship between oil wealth and incumbent governments’ behaviour, including election-year fiscal manipulation, has been studied to a lesser extent. This article argues that higher oil rents increase election-year public spending as they provide national governments both with direct revenue and increased financing opportunities. However, fiscal transparency mitigates this effect. Consequently, oil-induced electoral budget cycles decrease as fiscal transparency increases. Using a high-quality measure of fiscal transparency in a panel of countries, robust evidence in favour of this argument is found. The findings suggest that many of the previous results on the political effects of oil, including incumbency advantage, might run through an election-year spending channel, and that fiscal institutions might matter substantially for the political effects of oil.     

Fiscal consolidation and economic growth in India: Do policymakers need to shift focus from quantity to quality of fiscal adjustments?

This paper evaluates the impacts of fiscal consolidation programmes and their composition on the growth rate of national income for Indian economy. More specifically the study tries to address two questions that is, composition of consolidation and its resultant impact on growth rate of income and the relative desirability of alternative sources of deficit financing that is, internal versus external borrowing. The study employed time series data from 1990–1991 to 2017–2018 and used the technique of ordinary least square and generalized method of moments. The study finds that, in long run, fiscal consolidation need not be necessarily recessionary in nature. Moreover, the composition of consolidation was found to have a significant impact. The study could not extend empirical support in favour of back‐loaded (spending financed) consolidation design as has been established for advanced economies. Moreover the study could not establish the negative impacts of revenue funded (both tax and non‐tax) fiscal consolidation on the growth rate of economy. The study documented that it is desirable to target expenditures such as subsidies, transfers and interest payments to infuse more discipline. A judicious mixture of both spending cuts and revenue increase may be a better strategy to consolidate in order to have better returns. The study highlighted that the external source of deficit financing is always costlier against the internal borrowings. The study noted that it is imperative on part of policymakers to shift their focus from quantity to the quality of deficits and the resultant consolidation programmes.     

中国地方财政稳定机制研究

传统财政理论认为,中央政府是稳定政策唯一合适的承担者,然而,Gramlich得出地方政府的财政政策至少在短期内是有效的结论,并提倡地方政府实施稳定的财政政策。本文利用1995—2008年中国30个省、市、自治区(西藏除外)的财政收支面板数据和GDP面板数据,运用固定效应模型和Prais-Winsten PCSE方法实证分析了地方财政收支行为与宏观经济波动的关系,得出在宏观经济处于繁荣阶段时,地方财政收支违反了"逆周期"操作规则,是"顺周期"的结论。认为,地方政府职能转变不到位,财政纪律松弛,财政约束缺失,以及《预算法》的缺陷是导致"顺周期"的原因。为此,本文最后提出了通过建立地方财政预算稳定基金和中期预算制度,修订预算法等相关措施来构建中国地方财政稳定机制的设想。     

Predicting TIF Distress: A Statistical Analysis of Tax Incremental Finance Districts in Wisconsin

Tax incremental financing (TIF) is the most prevalent, complex, and controversial economic development tool used by local governments today. TIF proponents argue that TIF increases stagnant property values, but critics suggest that TIF is an unnecessary subsidy and distorts real estate markets. Although case studies offer evidence supporting both sides, the argument begs an important question: because some TIF districts are successful and others unsuccessful, is there a way to predict TIF distress and help prevent TIF failure? Practitioners and academics highlight the importance of pre-implementation planning and strict monitoring of TIF performance. However, even with the most strident planning and monitoring, TIF districts still often fail. Utilizing a dataset of all 1,080 active TIF districts in Wisconsin, this paper adopts techniques popular in assessing local government fiscal health by focusing on indicators such as budgetary solvency and macroeconomic conditions in predicting TIF distress.