Just a Matter of Timing? Local Electoral Turnout in Germany in the Context of National and European Parliamentary Elections

This article looks at the impact of national and European elections on turnout in German local council elections. The focus is first on effects from the timing of local council elections in between two federal elections and second on turnout effects from the combination of local council elections and European parliamentary elections. Starting from considerations about the relationships between high- and low-stimulus elections the article analyses data from 111 German local council elections held between 1951 and 2008. The analyses show first that upcoming national elections do mobilise voters to cast their ballots in regions where local council turnout traditionally is low. Second, combining European and local elections tends to reinforce turnout as well.     

The Participation Paradox of Indigenous Autonomy in Mexico

As indigenous movements around the world seek to strengthen their collective voice in their respective political systems, efforts continue to design political institutions that offer both sufficient local autonomy and incentives to participate in the broader political system. The state of Oaxaca, Mexico, offers a test case of one such effort at indigenous‐based institutional design. This article argues that such reforms often fail to confront the tension between local autonomy and citizen engagement in politics outside the borders of the community. Testing this theory through a comparative analysis of voter turnout rates in municipalities across the state of Oaxaca and the neighboring state of Guerrero, this study finds that the adoption of indigenous institutions at the local level is associated with significantly lower voter turnout rates for national elections.     

Gender Gap and Turnout in the 2003 Federal Elections

We examine the gender gap in turnout in Switzerland by analysing the 2003 federal elections. Despite being a standard component in electoral studies, the gender variable is, in most cases, only used as a control variable and its effects and interaction are too often under‐analysed. We focus on individual‐level factors by looking at three types of explanations for the gender gap: (1) resources, (2) political motivations and attitudes, and (3) social capital and integration. Our analysis, based on binomial logistic regression models, shows that compositional and conditional effects play an important role in explaining the persistent gender gap in Swiss electoral turnout.     

European Elections in Germany: Legitimacy for the European Union?

Turning out for elections can be treated as an indication of long-term support for a political system, if citizens perceive that system as legitimate. Applied to the level of the European Union this would suggest that levels of participation in elections to the European Parliament are crucial to the legitimacy of the EU's political system. Due to the multi-level character of these elections, however, causes for relatively low levels of turnout may be located at the national as well as the European level. We will use individual-level survey data to analyse the reasons for voter participation at European elections in Germany. Based on system-theoretic arguments we develop a model of voter participation including both European and national factors. The results of our binominal logistic regression models suggest that participation at European elections depends on individual characteristics like political interest on the one hand and perceptions of the performance of both the EU and the national government on the other.     

Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Consequently, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker–Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxony and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analysing community level turnout data, and drawing on a difference-in-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case and stands in contrast to findings from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation.     

Electoral Integrity and Turnout in a Context of Violence at the Sub-National Level in Mexico, 2015–2018

In this article, we analyse the effect of electoral integrity on electoral participation in violent contexts. Using data from Local Electoral Authorities on electoral results, Electoral Integrity rates, and the Peace Index, we develop an exploratory analysis for sub-national elections in Mexico, in the 2015–2018 period. We conclude that, when elections are characterised by a high level of integrity, the negative impact of violence on turnout lessens, or almost disappears. By doing this, we contribute to the existing literature about the effects of violence on turnout at the sub-national level and to the studies on electoral integrity.     

Contrasting First- and Second-Order Electoral Behaviour: Determinants of Individual Party Choice in European and German Federal Elections

In contrast to national elections, both parties and voters are assumed to think that ‘less is at stake’ in European elections: Campaigns are less intense, turnout is lower, and citizens are more inclined to ‘vote with their hearts’. The latter should be reflected in differing rationales of voting – party choice should not be based on identical determinants in national and European elections. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently tested and most of the research is based on the analysis of aggregated data while causal explanations are located on the micro level. This paper compares vote functions of individuals in regard to the 2009 European Parliament election as well as the 2009 German Federal election. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), comparison of explanatory models shows that party choice on both levels is neither fundamentally different nor does it fit into the pattern of second-order electoral behaviour.     

Islamist Mobilisation in Secularist Strongholds: Institutional Change and Electoral Performance in Turkey

How do Islamist parties mobilise support and win elections in secularist strongholds? What explains the electoral performance of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey’s most consistently secularist region – western Anatolia? This article explores these questions with a comparative case study of two similar cities in the periphery of ?zmir where the AKP registered significantly different electoral results: Ödemi? and Salihli. It shows that deep institutional transformations of the local party organisations, including leadership turnover, reshuffling of the party cadres, and an explicit attempt by local party leaders to moderate and move to the political centre, were necessary factors for the AKP to succeed in elections where the Islamist constituency is weak.     

Bye-Bye Bipolarism: The 2015 Regional Elections and the New Shape of Regional Party Systems in Italy

In May 2015, 19 million Italians were called to renew the legislative assemblies and presidencies of seven regions, thus concluding an electoral cycle begun in February 2013 that involved all the 15 ordinary statute regions. Beyond their immediate relevance – of the 15 incumbent presidents only three were confirmed in office – these elections represented a turning point for regional party systems, paralleling the earthquake of the 2013 general elections. The ‘fragmented bipolarism’ characterising elections in Italy at the two levels since the mid-1990s, has been replaced by a multipolar competition, as a consequence of the consolidating presence of the Movimento 5 Stelle and the internal divisions of the centre-right coalition. At the same time, fragmentation of regional councils has remained high. The evolution of regional party systems and patterns of competition are analysed in this paper, taking into account the electoral offer, turnout and results in the majoritarian and proportional arenas of the 15 ordinary statute regions.     

A real electoral duel between the P.J.D. and the P.A.M.? Analysing constituency-level competitiveness in the 2016 Moroccan elections

ABSTRACT

This article examines electoral competitiveness between the two main contenders in Morocco’s 2016 legislative elections, i.e. the Islamist Party of Justice and Development (P.J.D.) and the pro-monarchy Party of Authenticity and Modernity (P.A.M.). In contrast with electoral results at the national level, which reflect a high parliamentary competitiveness between these two parties, the analysis of competitiveness at the local constituency level (92 electoral districts) leads to quite different conclusions. The degree of local standard competitiveness between the P.J.D. and the P.A.M. was generally very low and, in most of the districts, the Islamists held a large advantage over the P.A.M. Other third parties also played a significant role and became the voters’ first or second choice in some districts, with the effect of increasing parliamentary fragmentation and decreasing competitiveness between the P.J.D. and the P.A.M. Thus, the proportional system used in a large number of districts contributed to achieving the monarchy’s aim of avoiding a predominant party. Also, the central role played by the loyalist National Rally of Independents (R.N.I.) in blocking the coalition government talks after the elections questions the idea that the Moroccan party system is becoming polarized between the P.J.D. and the P.A.M.     

Mobilität,Wahlbeteiligung und Sozialkapital in Schweizer Gemeinden

This paper investigates the relationship between mobility and voting behavior at different spatial levels. To this end, voter turnout in local municipality issues is compared to that in national matters. We find that the difference between local and national turnout strongly correlates with the mobility of a municipality's population. An explanation for the observed negative relationship is that social networks and the sense of duty towards the local community are weaker in municipalities where people are more mobile. In addition to this core result, it is discussed how mobility affects turnout at the local and national level separately, and it is shown how the different measures might be used as proxies for local social capital in a municipality.     

Voting Attitudes and Behaviour Among Aboriginal Peoples: Reports from Anangu Women*

At state and particularly in federal (or national) elections, Aboriginal Peoples in remote regions turn out to vote in low numbers. A number of hypotheses have been offered to explain the low voting participation of such constituencies. Some have asserted that Aboriginal Peoples do not wish to vote; others have suggested that “first order” elections have low salience for Aboriginal Peoples, thereby depressing turnout. The low political efficacy thesis has also been proposed, as well as cultural and mechanical factors. We consider whether any of these hypotheses are plausible using data obtained in group interviews with twenty‐nine Anangu Women in remote South Australia. On the basis of this fieldwork we consider means for stimulating turnout within this, and in similar, constituencies.     

Election boycotts in the second and third republics of Poland,and their social implications

Traditionally, historians have been dismissive of the significance of voting in the Scottish parliament before the Covenanting revolution of 1638 and its first parliament in 1639–41. Recent, more detailed research has undermined many previous assumptions about the nature and procedures of parliament. Drawing upon local and national records, this article explores the evidence for the incidence of enumerated divisions as part of the decision-making process. It demonstrates that there is evidence for voting from as early as the fourteenth century, albeit that it is not unambiguous before the sixteenth century. As in the English House of Commons, enumerated divisions may have become more firmly established as a normal part of parliament's procedures during that century. The impact of the regal union is also analysed, although it is not clear that it had a significant impact upon this particular aspect of parliamentary procedure. It also examines the use of the word ‘vote’ in the Scots language, and its relationship to ‘voice’. It is argued that ‘vote’ was exported to England after 1603 and, as a consequence, it questions the view that the appearance of the word in England has significance for the emergence of contested elections there.     

Political Issues, Generation Gap, and Voting Behavior in South Korea: The 2010 Seoul Mayoral Election

Against all odds, South Korea's 2010 local elections were a landslide victory for the coalition of the opposition political parties. This article aims to provide an insight on the dynamic nature of Korean elections and politics by using a public opinion survey in Seoul's mayoral election as a case study. This article finds that the "north wind" triggered by the sinking of the South Korean battleship Cheonan helped the ruling party candidate, but not as much as the ruling party had hoped. Furthermore, a high turnout of the younger voters helped the opposition party candidate by showing a clear generation gap in terms of the important issues, ideology, and party orientation.     

Does electoral fraud spread? The expansion of electoral manipulation in Russia

In this paper, we argue that the occurrence of electoral manipulation in Russia has been driven, in part, by diffusion across neighboring raions through emulation, incentives, and networks. Presumably, in Putin’s Russia all local authorities have some incentives to deliver a high number of votes to United Russia, the “party of power”. However, the perceived pressure to deliver ever higher levels of support for Putin’s party arguably increases considerably if one’s raion is located in a region marked by extraordinarily high turnout and high vote share for United Russia. Conversely, the absence of perceived competition to curry executive favor through delivering votes and networks of uncorrupted local authorities, as well as local opposition organizations working to combat electoral fraud, may help explain the absence of fraud among raions located in regions marked by clean elections. Our quantitative analyses suggest that a “neighborhood effect” – the existence of manipulated raions within a region – strongly influences the likelihood that raions are manipulated. Moreover, although results are more mixed, spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests that turnout levels in raions are influenced by the turnout in proximate raions.     

Three Faces of Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Parties and Candidates in Germany, 2005–13

Constituency campaigns are multidimensional and complex: parties and candidates are deeply entangled, and, at least in mixed-member electoral systems, local constituency campaigns are embedded within national party campaigns. Recent discussions have focused on aspects of campaign change in European democracies, especially disentanglement in terms of individualisation, personalisation, and/or localisation. This study contributes to the discussion both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, three dimensions (‘faces’) of constituency campaigns are differentiated: organisational partyness, vertical integration, and communicative personalisation. This threefold differentiation allows for a more precise analysis of campaign patterns by differentiating party–candidate (organisation, communication) and intra-party (vertical integration) aspects. Constituency campaigns in the 2005, 2009, and 2013 German federal elections are empirically examined. The analysis explains why candidates decide for one or another campaign pattern. These three faces are empirically distinct as well. Furthermore, we argue that parties remain vital for the organisation of campaigns despite a decline in centralisation. Addressing the communicative face, the analysis shows that candidate-related issues are important, but a mix of party- and candidate-related communication gains importance.     

Testing for sources of electoral competition under authoritarianism: an analysis of Russia’s gubernatorial elections

What drives electoral competition in competitive authoritarian regimes? Most scholarship has assumed that the outcome of these elections is decided by regime manipulation alone. Using three rounds of newly reinstated gubernatorial elections in Russia’s regions, I test this assumption. I identify three distinct measures of competition calibrated to authoritarian elections and assess whether voter preferences or regime manipulation best explain the degree of electoral competition. Relying on new data on protests across Russia’s regions, I find that regions with high protest activity have more contested elections with narrower margins of victory. The results also confirm recent scholarship highlighting the importance of voter turnout for delivering pro-regime victories.     

2008—2020年俄罗斯地方政治态势演变及其影响

2020年1月,普京宣布政治改革初步方案,俄罗斯政治将在联邦层面发生巨大变化。同年9月13日,在俄罗斯地方选举中“统俄党”大获全胜。普京的一系列政治操作——政府重组、宪法修正似乎已初见成效。实际上,俄罗斯政治在地方层面上已经发生许多变化。通过使用python语言自编程序从俄罗斯中央选举委员会的官方网站抓取相关数据,本文研究了从2008年至2020年的情况,发现普京及“统俄党”在地方政治中的支持度明显不如在联邦中央,自2018年以来其他党派赢得一些地方选举的趋势仍在延续甚至加强,但“统俄党”在地方的表现未直接影响到联邦层级。从政治、经济、民生角度解读俄罗斯地方与中央政治态势的显著差异十分重要。未来俄罗斯存在普京续任总统或“统俄党”顺利推出新人执行类似普京政策的可能,但也不能排除“统俄党”落选反对派上台的可能性。俄罗斯政局的下一个重要观察点是2021年第八届国家杜马选举。     

Vertical party integration: informal and human linkages between elections in a Canadian province

Examining multi-level vertical party linkages in Canada’s largest province, this paper makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, drawing on data from a unique survey of constituency associations, the paper focuses on an often unexplored aspect of parties: their local organisations. Second, the paper offers an exploratory analysis of constituency level factors in order to determine which types of constituency associations are the most likely to be integrated. The results of the logistic regression demonstrate the possibility of non-party-based factors such as electoral strength that may contribute to vertical party integration.     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.