Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.     

A prospective analysis of juvenile male sex offenders: characteristics and recidivism rates as adults

This research assesses the recidivism rates of a sample of 300 registered male sex offenders who were juveniles at the time of their initial arrest for a sex offense. This sample is followed for 3 to 6 years after they reached adulthood; recidivism rates are assessed during their adulthood only. The typical juvenile is a 15-year-old Caucasian male who was arrested for sexual assault or indecency with a child. The majority of the victims are females with an average age of 8. Although only 13 are rearrested during the follow-up period for a sex offense, more than half of the sample is arrested at least once for a nonsexual offense. The results of a Cox regression indicate that victim age, offender age, and victim sex are significant predictors of recidivism during adulthood.     

Violence risk and gang affiliation in youth offenders: a recidivism study

Abstract

Youth gangs are ubiquitous around the world and have been problematic for the social and criminal justice agencies. Despite widespread public concern, there has been relatively scarce empirical scrutiny of youth gangs internationally and little outside of America and Europe. In particular, the activities of youth gangs, the function of gang membership, the criminogenic needs of gang-affiliated youth, and the risk of criminal recidivism for gang-affiliated youth remain unclear. Against this background, this study explored the sociodemographic characteristics, risk and rate of criminal recidivism in a cohort of 165 male youth offenders in Singapore, of which 58 were gang-affiliated. Multivariate analyses revealed that gang-affiliated youth offenders were significantly more likely to have histories of substance use, weapon use and violence than nongang-affiliated youth offenders. Gang-affiliated offenders also scored higher on measures of risk for recidivism (SAVRY and YLS/CMI), and engaged in violent and other criminal behaviors more frequently during follow-up. These differences indicate a significant relationship between gang affiliation and criminal recidivism in youth offenders. Furthermore, these findings have important clinical and policy implications, indicating an increased requirement for additional and more intensive assessment and tailored interventions for gang-affiliated youth offenders.     

Female sex offenders: severe victims and victimizers

Although there is an extensive body of literature concerning male sexual offenders, there is a marked lack of articles describing sexual offenses committed by females. The authors present a review of the existing literature on this topic and describe five cases of female sexual offenders and four cases of female sexual abusers. Implications for the effective assessment and treatment of this unique population are discussed.     

Global risk factors and the prediction of recidivism rates in a sample of first-time misdemeanant offenders

This article examines the prediction of recidivism using the Global Risk Assessment Device (GRAD), a reliable and valid measure of dynamic factors associated with family characteristics, peers, mental health, substance abuse, trauma exposure, educational concerns, accountability, and health risks. Using a sample of adult caregivers of first-time misdemeanant offenders, two factors-education and accountability-were significantly associated with recidivistic behavior, supporting the use of GRAD data in correctly identifying first-time offenders who have the greatest and the least likelihood for future offending behavior. Additional analyses utilizing parent reports on African American males indicate that the GRAD provides discrimination in the prediction of recidivism in a group typically seen as being high risk simply because of their gender and race. The assessment drives intervention approach of the GRAD is discussed in terms of using reports from adults to accurately place youth into appropriate levels of supervision and treatment.     

The factors associated with criminal recidivism in Finnish male offenders: importance of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence

Neurocognitive deficits and psychiatric disorders are often brought up as risk factors of recidivism. In this study, we investigated how neurocognitive and academic deficits and psychiatric disorders (including substance dependence) are associated with criminal recidivism and prison career among male offenders. In a health survey of Finnish prisoners, 72 sentenced male prisoners were examined in Turku prison using a neurocognitive test battery and psychiatric assessment including a standardized psychiatric interview (SCID-I, II). The neurocognitive and academic tests were chosen to assess domains of cognitive functioning and reading, spelling and mathematical skills. Our results showed that the combination of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence was connected to recidivism. Axis I diagnosis (major mental disorders) and substance dependence were connected with neurocognitive and academic deficits. Moreover, first-time offenders had fewer neurocognitive deficits and Axis I disorders, less substance dependence and fewer personality disorders than those with several convictions. Rehabilitation of cognitive functions and academic skills, along with intervention for mental health problems and substance dependence could help to prevent the unfavourable circle of criminal career.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

Low recidivism rates of child sex offenders in a Finnish 7-year follow-up

ABSTRACT

This study examines the recidivism rates of Finnish child sex offenders convicted in 2010 (n = 361) over a follow-up period of seven years. The results indicate that while reoffending for other types of offences was common (34%), offenders had very low sexual crime recidivism rates (1%). In terms of more persistent criminal careers, less than a quarter of the offenders had both a previous criminal history and at least one subsequent offence during the follow-up period. Offenders with child sexual abuse material-related crimes reoffended more rarely than did others. Study limitations and implications for policymaking, media and rehabilitation are discussed.     

Predictive accuracy of dynamic risk factors for aboriginal and non-aboriginal sex offenders: an exploratory comparison using STABLE-2007

Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal (n = 88) and non-Aboriginal (n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.     

Male victims and post treatment risk assessment among adult male sex offenders

The use of actuarial instruments to predict sex offender recidivism has gained increasing credibility in recent years. This paper is one in a series examining the impact of dynamic inpatient group therapy upon the predictive influence of static risk factors on recidivism among adult sex offenders. Successful completion of the Phoenix Program (Alberta Hospital Edmonton) has been shown to ameliorate the influence of static risk factors on sexual offense recidivism. Many studies have reported that sex offenders who have male victims are more likely to re-offend than those who do not have male victims. A sample of N=513 convicted adult male sex offenders was examined regarding the relationship between the static risk factor of having male victims, subsequent re-offense, and treatment impact. Interestingly, ever having had a male victim did not significantly correlate with sex offense recidivism, for either treatment completers, non-completers, or the combined group. However, having exclusively male victims was correlated with sex offense recidivism, but only among non-completers of the program (r=.155; p=.017). Analysis of a subset of 422 child molesters yielded a similar result, in that having male victims exclusively was only associated with sex offense recidivism among treatment non-completers (r=.189, p=.009).     

Juvenile female and male sex offenders: a comparison of offender, victim, and judicial processing characteristics

This research examines 61 juvenile female sex offenders in terms of their offending patterns, demographics, and victim characteristics; these findings are compared to 122 juvenile male sex offenders. Relying on sex offender registration data and criminal history records, bivariate analyses are conducted to assess male-female differences. Logistic regression is also employed to further assess group membership (male and female). Females were typically younger than males at the time of their arrest for a sex offense. Female offenders also chose male and female victims proportionately, whereas males were more likely to choose female victims. Logistic regression analysis revealed two significant predictors of the offender's sex: victim's sex and length of sentence. This research, therefore, indicates different modalities of offense characteristics for males and females, which predicates different management strategies in terms of identification for these groups of offenders.     

A comparison of the neuropsychological profiles of adult male sex offenders and non-offenders with a learning disability

Abstract

The present study compared the neumpsychologlcal pmfiles of a group of adult male sex offenden with a laming disability (n-42) with a group of adult male non-offenders with a learning disability (n-42) using the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale - Revised (1986). The groups wen matched for full-scale IQ. Thc study found that the non-offender group had significantly higher Verbal 1Q scorn than the sex offender group. No significant differences wen found for Performance IQ. The non-ofinder group was also found to have significantly hlgher scores on the Vocabulary sub-test than the sex offender group and the sex offender group was found to have significantly higher scores on the ObJecr Assembly subtest than the non-ofinder group. Finally. the sex offender group was found to have a significantly lower Verbal IQ than Performance IQ. No significant Verbal-Performance discrepancy was found for the non-offender group. Possible implications of these findings are dlscusscd.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Risk factors for recidivism among spousal assault and spousal homicide offenders

Abstract

The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA; Kropp et al., 1995) is a 20-item checklist for the structured professional assessment of risk for partner violence. This study reported on a retrospective follow-up of file-based SARA assessments of offenders convicted 1988–1990 in Sweden. A total of 88 male batterers referred for court-ordered forensic psychiatric evaluations were included. During the 7-year follow-up, twenty-five (28%) were re-convicted of spousal assault. A few SARA items were statistically significantly associated with increased risk of recidivism, namely: Items #3, Past violation of conditional release or community supervision, #10 Personality disorder with anger, impulsivity, or behavioural instability (psychopathy), and #16 Extreme minimisation or denial of spousal assault history. The severity of the index crime (#18 Severe and/or sexual assault) was negatively related to risk for recidivism during follow-up. Offenders scoring above the median on the SARA were at more than 2.5 higher the risk for recidivism than those scoring below the median. In terms of predictive validity, the SARA actuarial score exhibited a marginal but statistically significant improvement over chance in this sample.     

Recidivism among sex offenders: a follow-up study of 541 Norwegian sex offenders

A study of recidivism to sexual offences was conducted among Norwegian males who had received their first conviction for a sexual crime during the years 1970-1974. Five hundred and forty-one out of a total of 1,071 offenders were randomly selected and followed by means of official and public register systems until the end of August 1983. No one was contacted personally by the investigators. The recidivism rate was 12.8%, with the rapists having the highest tendency to commit new sexual crimes. Acts like incest, exploitation of someone in the custody of the perpetrator or similar felonies against so-called public morals were least likely to be repeated. Most of the repeat offenders only had one single subsequent offence, either of the same type of crime as at the first or to a less severe crime. Only a handful committed more than one repeat offence. A large number of the sexual offenders had committed others types of crimes, some prior to their first conviction for the sexual crime and some subsequent. Most of our criminally convicted males had a record of mixed criminality, in which crimes of profit and violence dominated.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.