The Development-Insecurity Nexus in China’s Near-Abroad: Rethinking Cross-Border Economic Integration in an Era of State Transformation

Surprisingly, perhaps, China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative expresses a familiar mix of the security–development nexus and liberal interdependence thesis: Chinese leaders expect economic development and integration will stabilise and secure neighbouring states and improve inter-state relations. However, drawing on the record of China’s intensive economic interaction with Myanmar, we argue that the opposite outcome may occur, for two reasons. First, capitalist development is inherently conflict-prone. Second, moreover, China’s cross-border economic relations today are shaped by state transformation – the fragmentation, decentralisation and internationalisation of party-state apparatuses. Accordingly, economic relations often emerge not from coherent national strategies, but from the uncoordinated, even contradictory, activities of various state and non-state agencies at multiple scales, which may exacerbate capitalist development’s conflictual aspects and undermine official policy goals. In the Sino-Myanmar case, the lead Chinese actors creating and managing cross-border economic engagements are sub-national agencies and enterprises based in, or operating through, Yunnan province. The rapacious form of development they have pursued has exacerbated insecurity, helped to reignite ethnic conflict in Myanmar’s borderlands, and plunged bilateral relations into crisis. Consequently, the Chinese government has had to change its policy and intervene in Myanmar’s domestic affairs to promote peace negotiations.     

From the State to the Streets: The Debate over the Civil Union Bill and Conservative Strategic Change in Peru

The adoption of SOGI policies depends on the strategies activists choose to support or oppose them. Nevertheless, the conditions that explain why some strategies are prioritised over others are not evident. In Peru, the 2013 debate over civil unions prompted a strategic shift in which the conservative wing started to benefit from intensive street mobilisation strategies. Why did this change occur? We argue that a deeply divided electoral competition and the decay of the Catholic Church's moral authority favoured this outcome. This article analyses the trajectory of these strategies over time to identify the conditions that contributed to the shift.     

New Challenges for Thailand: Labour and Growth after the Crisis

Exploring the relationship between labour and economic growth in Thailand over the past half century, the article shows that Thailand can no longer rely on an extensive growth regime based on abundant and cheap labour. We argue that Thailand is at a critical juncture and that Thailand cannot avoid shifting to an intensive growth regime based on increases of labour productivity in order to control labour costs and, unlike past regimes, seek ways to ensure that the benefits of growth are better shared.     

Cape Verde and the risks of tourism specialisation: the tourism option for Africa’s small states

ABSTRACT

Tourism is a viable, but risky, option for many small island countries to integrate and compete in the world economy. This article examines tourism in the small island economy of Cape Verde. It assesses the risks to its long term development posed by the industry. The country has one of the fastest growing tourism industries in the world. However, this rapid growth is a dual-edge sword. Tourism-led growth results in real economic gains. However, the type and organisation of Cape Verde’s tourism industry magnifies the country’s already high structural vulnerability. Given its current structure and pace of growth, tourism increases macroeconomic risks and vulnerability. It is reproducing the same monoculture dependency that traditionally hampered development in African economies. The policy lessons are clear. Cape Verde must foster economic diversification while simultaneously engaging in strategies to mitigate the risks that accompany its biggest and fastest growing sector and export.     

The Problem of Macroeconomic Policy Crossroads:Explaining the Economic Policy Paradox of Switzerland and Japan in the 1990s

The 1990s, which can be characterized as a decade of disinflationary growth and austerity policies for most developed market democracies, was the decade of stagnant growth and policy complacency for Switzerland and Japan. Based on a framework that emphasizes the structure of policy choices available to governments at economic crossroads (or crisis), I show Switzerland and Japan are unique in that (a) disinflationary fundamentals spared the countries from speculative or inflationary pressure that required drastic responses and (b) the governments paradoxically maintained conservative economic policies despite room for expansion in order to continue policies based on the compromise between export and domestic sectors. The policy crossroads perspective stresses the importance of endogenous coalitions even in a world of economic globalization to explain concerted politics and conservative policies, and to assess the true impact of international finance on domestic changes.     

Economic Constraints and Strategic Choices: The Case of the Frente Amplio of Uruguay’s First Year in Office

The article analyses the economic constraints and strategic choices that shaped the economic policies of the Frente Amplio of Uruguay’s first year in office. It argues that the economic strategy of the Frente Amplio’s administration can be described as the adoption, completion and correction of the incomplete free market reforms enacted by previous right of centre administrations and that this strategy can be explained as the product of two interrelated factors: first, a pragmatic compromise between partially conflicting visions of economic development; and, second, a political strategy that has sought to consider the demands of the different socio‐political constituencies which make up the coalition.     

Putting violent armed conflict in the center of the Salween hydropower debates

Regional economic integration has become the dominant development pathway promoted, endorsed, and followed by many developing country governments in South East Asia and globally. Focusing on hydropower development, this article shows how forces of globalization manifested in the Myanmar government’s strategies to promote economic growth are shaping the Salween River basin’s development trajectory. Contesting the general belief that economic development would help the country’s transition to full democracy and achieve peace, it illustrates how hydropower development plans in the basin are closely interlinked with human rights issues. Well known for its long histories of violent conflict involving the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups in various states, hydropower development in the Salween River is not only linked to the ongoing peace process in Myanmar but could also have direct implications on the actual significance of the process. Despite the signing of nationwide ceasefire agreements in 2012, hydropower dam projects could contribute to and trigger reoccurrences of violent armed conflict. Recognizing this conflict-prone and politically fragile condition as the main characteristics of Salween water governance is essential if we are to strive for sustainable and just development.     

A Decade of Lost Growth: Economic Policy in Spain through the Great Recession

In 2008 the Spanish economy sank into recession, returning to growth in 2014. This paper explores the policies that were pursued by two successive governments to escape the recession. It comments on one of the most contentious strategies, that of austerity, and underlines the constraints on policy imposed by membership of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and a decentralised state. The Great Recession and accompanying austerity policy were associated with huge social and economic costs. Policy targets on the debt and deficit were not met. This experience, together with the broader sluggish growth in Europe and the political consequences associated with austerity, pointed to the need for a new policy mix.     

Russian defense spending after 2010: the interplay of personal,domestic, and foreign policy interests

Since 2010, Russia’s defense spending has seen an average annual real growth of 10%, causing a profound shift in the composition of government expenditure. This article examines the formal and informal processes through which Russia’s level of defense spending is determined and identifies personal, domestic, and foreign policy interests behind the rise in defense expenditures. Drawing on a combination of elite interviews and document and news analyses, I argue that domestic political and socioeconomic factors are at least as important as geopolitical and security ones in explaining Russia’s decision to push defense to the forefront of the political agenda. The findings suggest that high levels of defense spending may be politically sustainable in Russia, at least in the medium term, even though it comes at the cost of other public goods.     

An African response to the new wave of afro‐pessimism

The Afro‐pessimism that has resurfaced in parts of the world has no foundation and has provoked strong objections on several grounds. First, the timing is inappropriate as a number of new development indicators suggest that a good basis is now being laid in Africa for a better future economic performance. Secondly, there is an upsurge of Afro‐optimism among African and world leaders with the advent of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad). But more fundamentally, the growth concept which forms the basis for bleak projections on Africa's ability to reduce poverty, is flawed and the presumed strong growth‐poverty correlation empirically discredited. Additionally, it is a fallacy to assume that the reforms of the past 20 years were consistent with the continent's long‐term development trajectories given that the continent was unresponsive, remaining poor and ‘structurally undevelopable’.

On the contrary, these reforms have been pronounced by a World Bank assessment team as being defective in objectives and design, operationally dysfunctional and an example of massive resource misallocation, all of which have collectively worsened Africa's poverty and income disparity conditions. Particularly ironic is the concept of ‘structural stability’ prescribed in the ‘Memorandum for a New Start for German African Policy’, as it falls short of engaging fully and comprehensively the broader spectrum of structural distortions, weaknesses and rigidities, including the lack of economic structural transformation which is critical for achieving sustained economic growth and significant poverty reduction. The international community will now have to look at channelling resources to reshape, support and refine Africa's own initiative — Nepad.     

本轮经济下行阶段增长与就业相背离了吗?

近年来,伴随中国经济进入下行阶段,中国经济增长由高速转向中高速,从官方公布的数据来看,总体就业形势却并未如预期那样恶化,以致有观点认为目前我国经济运行出现了“增长与就业相背离”的现象。本文试图解释“增长与就业相背离”这一现象的发生。通过利用相关数据并构造科学的方法计算中国经济下行阶段失业率,以此判断中国经济下行阶段经济增长是否与就业相背离,通过实证分析发现在本轮经济下行阶段增长与就业并没有相背离。本文的研究结论对于深刻理解中共中央关于就业优先政策具有重要现实意义。     

Escaping the resource curse: The case of Indonesia

Abstract

Numerous studies have suggested that natural resource abundance is bad for development. In this context, Indonesia's rapid growth during the 1970s and 1980s seems remarkable. Why was Indonesia able to grow strongly and what are the implications of its experience for other resource abundant countries? I argue that its rapid growth was not simply a matter of policy elites making rational economic policy choices, but rather reflected two more fundamental factors: (i) the political victory of counter-revolutionary social forces over radical nationalist and communist social forces in Indonesia during the 1960s; and (ii) the country's strategic Cold War location and proximity to Japan. Accordingly, the main implication of its experience is that improved economic performance in resource abundant countries requires shifts in structures of power and interest and the emergence of external political and economic conditions that provide opportunities for growth.     

Afghanistan reconstruction in regional perspective

The reconstruction of Afghanistan is in part dependent upon the reintegration of Afghanistan into the international community. Reintegration, in turn, is dependent upon Afghanistan's trans-border infrastructure of communication, trade, transport, water, power and investment. Accordingly, increased regional economic cooperation is a key element of Afghanistan's reconstruction. This article analyses regional economic cooperation in the South and Central Asian region in terms of logic, institutions, actors, and expectations. The article argues in favour of inclusiveness to enlarge the number of beneficiaries of economic benefits of regional economic cooperation while avoiding the pitfalls of risky strategies of faulty collective action.     

China-ASEAN Economic Co-operation and the Role of Provinces

This article attempts to study the rationales and strategies of China's involvement in sub-regional economic co-operation projects with the countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), using the Greater Mekong Basin Sub-region and the Pan-Beibu Gulf Area as examples. It analyses China's diplomatic and economic motivations, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of this involvement. It also examines China's involvement at the provincial level and, in particular, the motivations, strategies, strengths and limitations on the part of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in its participation in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Area project. China considers that its involvement facilitates its articulation of its interests, enhancement of its influence and promotion of multipolarity. Further, it would allow China to maintain a relatively low profile while seeking leadership and reducing external pressures. There are also the considerations of reducing China's aid commitments and accelerating the development of China's central and western provinces.     

Between crises and sanctions: economic policy of the Russian Federation

This paper examines the root causes and features of crises of the Russian economy in 2014–2015 as a combination of structural and institutional problems, as well as cyclical and external shocks. The demand-side model of economic growth based on massive windfall revenue from oil and gas exports from the 2000s is now exhausted, and the country needs to shift to a new, supply-side model of growth. Mobilization and liberalization are discussed as two key economic policy alternatives. The analysis includes historical retrospection, which provides some important lessons from economic developments in the twentieth century: the Great Depression and the period of stagflation, the Soviet industrialization debate and perestroika, and the New Economic Policy in the USSR and the contemporary modernization of China. Special attention is paid to the mechanisms of economic growth acceleration in present-day Russia. They include macroeconomic stabilization, structural and institutional reforms based on liberalization of economic activity, and guarantees of property rights.     

The Economy of China

Evidence suggests that following liberalisation reforms in India, public sector contributions to social development projects responsible for public goods allocation and the provision of services have receded in favour of an enlarged role for private sector initiatives, particularly through public-private partnerships. As part of a “good governance” agenda, the state is embracing such partnerships, modelled on information communication technology (ICT), within a wider development strategy (ICTD) to improve goods allocation and government's image as a trustworthy agent. This has also coincided with a changing political economy that has granted greater authority to more localised units of government over economic and developmental processes. This paper examines a case study of Urban e-Seva, an ICTD public-private partnership in Hyderabad, and couches it in a larger examination of contemporary social development in India. The paper concludes that government needs to be embedded in public-private partnerships, that it must continue to be at the forefront of allocation strategies in general, and that globalisation is strongly shaped by public institutions operating at the sub-national level. Furthermore, reforms are needed to correct for globalisation and liberalisation's inabilities to foster proper social development in India.     

Post-Hegemonic Climate Politics?

The article argues that the effects of a new US president on global climate politics will be rather less than might be expected. This is partly because the rhetorical differences between Bush, his predecessor Clinton and President Obama mask great continuities in US climate change politics since the early 1990s. It is also because, unlike in other issue areas, the EU has moved into a position of clear international leadership, which is likely to provoke diplomatic conflict, both for standard reasons of realpolitik but more precisely because of the different growth strategies pursued by each side and the different implications of those strategies for climate policy. Finally, the emergence of a dense pattern of transnational climate governance will increasingly constrain the options for either side in pursuing new climate change agreements after 2012.     

“The Politics of Political Advertising” in Australia and Britain, 1970–1989

The role of advertising in the production of political campaigns deserves more consideration than it has previously received. My study examines advertising agencies associated with election campaigns in the 1970s and 1980s, investigating their decisions to accept or reject political accounts. Focusing on Britain and Australia, and using a range of primary sources including the industry press, interviews and memoirs, I demonstrate that an agency's decision to accept a political account is always complex, contested and highly contingent. Accepting a political account may alienate clients and agency staff who support another party. Campaigns are labour‐intensive and may detract from an agency's core business. Involvement in a losing campaign can damage an agency's reputation, just as association with a successful one may attract clients. Agencies are often unsure how to approach political advertising where traditional techniques may not be suitable. Such concerns about accepting a political account will likely be put aside where an agency principal has close personal ties to a party or leader.     

Cuba's “Equity Without Growth” Dilemma and the 2011 Lineamientos

Cuba faces a development dilemma: it promotes equity and human capital while failing to deliver economic growth. For the government, the country's equity and human capital achievements are a source of pride, a sign that its priorities are right. This essay argues instead that this “equity without growth” dilemma is a sign of malaise. Theory and evidence suggest that high levels of equity and human capital should produce high levels of economic growth. Because growth is often weak or negative, some onerous barriers to development must be present. These barriers, it is argued, are restrictions on property and political rights. By comparing Cuba and China across two sectors, the bicycle industry and Internet access, this article shows how these restrictions have hindered growth. It also assesses how Cuba's latest economic reforms, the so‐called Lineamientos, will address Cuba's development dilemma. The impact may be minimal, but perhaps more lasting than previous reforms.