Stability and change in party preferences: Evidence from Latin America

Why do voters shift partisan allegiances between elections and/or within electoral cycles? Drawing on panel survey data, this study is designed to enhance our understanding of shifting partisan preferences byexploring vote switching and split-ticket voting inthe Latin American context. Its main finding and contribution to the existing literature on stability and change in partisan preferences centers around the importance of candidate viability relative to party identification and other individual characteristics shaping vote choice.     

Vote Buying and Social Desirability Bias: Experimental Evidence from Nicaragua

Qualitative studies of vote buying find the practice to be common in many Latin American countries, but quantitative studies using surveys find little evidence of vote buying. Social desirability bias can account for this discrepancy. We employ a survey‐based list experiment to minimize the problem. After the 2008 Nicaraguan municipal elections, we asked about vote‐buying behavior by campaigns using a list experiment and the questions traditionally used by studies of vote buying on a nationally representative survey. Our list experiment estimated that 24% of registered voters in Nicaragua were offered a gift or service in exchange for votes, whereas only 2% reported the behavior when asked directly. This detected social desirability bias is nonrandom and analysis based on traditional obtrusive measures of vote buying is unreliable. We also provide systematic evidence that shows the importance of monitoring strategies by parties in determining who is targeted for vote buying.     

Corruption and citizen participation in local government: Evidence from Latin America

Prior research indicates that corruption hampers economic growth and imposes high social costs. From the perspective of democratic theory, corruption does not just violate the fiduciary obligations with which the public entrusts government officials; it has detrimental effects on the legitimacy of the democratic process as a whole. If citizens view their government as corrupt and dishonest, they become cynical about political life, and as a result, they are less likely to participate in democratic governance. This article examines the effect of corruption—measured through both perception and experience—on citizen participation in local government. Using data from the AmericasBarometer survey on the new democracies in Latin America, we test whether the withdrawal effects registered in terms of participation in elections hold for the participation in city administration. The results show that citizens' willingness to participate in local governance relates positively with their experience of corruption, but not with their perception of corruption.     

Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities: Evidence from Latin America

It is often assumed that the institutional organization of electoral management bodies (EMB) has an impact on the credibility of elections, but this proposition has been difficult to verify empirically. I examine whether the degree of autonomy from the political process of EMB administrators affects attitudes towards elections among citizens and legislators by analyzing mass and elite surveys across Latin America. I conclude that levels of confidence in the electoral process among political elites are higher in countries with politically autonomous EMBs, but this effect is muted in the analysis of citizen attitudes. This association holds after controlling for individual-level determinants of trust in elections and for other relevant country-level predictors in multilevel statistical models.     

Regulatory reforms,normative changes,and performance: Evidence from the electricity sector in Latin America

Over the past three decades the Latin American region has experienced various regulatory reforms, and distinctive normative changes have been introduced in the framework, instruments, or procedures adopted by independent regulatory agencies (IRAs). While there is evidence that the establishment of an IRA positively affects regulated sector performance, little is known about the effects of these additional legal dispositions when incorporated in primary or secondary legislation. However, normative changes may shape IRAs' actual regulatory activities and the signals they send to their stakeholders, potentially influencing sectoral performance. This research traces the evolution of several instruments and procedures legally adopted by IRAs located in Latin America and comprehensively assesses the influence of these normative changes on the performance dimensions of the electricity sector. We built indexes that describe the adoption of specific legal dispositions in the region. These indexes reveal that the evolution of the normative dispositions varies in terms of extent, context, and timing of adoption. In addition, the changes are not equally or even positively associated with specific performance dimensions. While economic regulatory instruments shape many performance dimensions, “soft” procedural dispositions also play an important role in perceptions of quality in the electricity sector.     

Economic Development and Democracy: the View from Latin America

This article provides a robust empirical test of the economic development thesis using time-series data on seventeen Latin American countries ( n =408). It specifies similar models (both linear and non-linear) to those found in the global comparative literature on economic development and democracy in an effort to replicate their findings at the regional level. The statistical analysis shows that the positive relationship between economic development and democracy is not upheld at this level, even when using alternative measures of both and controlling for sub-regional variation. Overall, the analysis provides a regional 'most likely' study that infirms the main claims of modernization theory.     

State‐targeted grievances and resources: Protest participation during economic downturns in Latin America

This article analyzes the determinants of protest participation in Latin America. Whereas most research emphasizes grievances over resources, or vice versa, this article explains protest participation as the interaction between individuals' state‐targeted grievances and material resources. I argue that grievances and availability of material resources interact and fuel protest among individuals whose income falls close to the middle of the income distribution, but not among the poor or the rich. Whereas the scarcity of resources mitigates the politicization of grievances among the poor, the relative abundance of resources and alternative channels of political influence produces the same effect among the rich. Analysis of survey data from Latin American democracies provides strong support for these arguments.     

Strategic Re‐framing as a Vote Winner: Why Vote‐seeking Governments Pursue Unpopular Reforms

Most political science accounts assume that governments in Western democracies avoid unpopular reforms to protect their re‐election chances. Nevertheless, governments sometimes embark on electorally risky reforms – even in times when they have no slack in the polls. In this article, it is argued that pursuing unpopular reforms can be a perfectly rational strategy for vote‐seeking governments. Based on a simple game theoretical model that compares strategic framing with the classic blame avoidance strategy, it is demonstrated that unpopular policy reforms allow governments to pursue gains of both policy and votes by opting for a highly visible strategy of reframing the substantive reform issue in question. This general argument is illustrated with the substantial 2011 retrenchment of Danish early retirement benefits. This particular welfare state programme was highly popular. Nevertheless, the incumbent Liberal prime minister proposed to abolish it only a few months prior to a national election while his government was trailing significantly in the polls.     

Three roads to institutionalisation: Vote‐, office‐ and policy‐seeking explanations of party switching in Poland

Party institutionalisation is a central problem in political science. The literature tends to understand it as a syndrome and therefore has difficulty explaining variations. This article suggests a new approach based on the transaction between a legislative party and its deputies, the failure of which is observable in party switching. Three routes to institutionalisation are identified by appealing to the vote‐seeking, office‐seeking or policy‐seeking motivations of deputies. Poland has had a large volume of party switching, along with wide variation in the incentives facing differently‐motivated deputies. Survival analyses of switching in four Polish parliaments find that vote‐seeking is the most likely route to institutionalisation for Polish parties. Moreover, in this article a concrete hypothesis is established for comparative testing: legislative parties can survive as long as their popular support exceeds 40 per cent of their share in the previous election.     

The Origins of Institutional Crises in Latin America

Institutional instability and interbranch crises pose a fundamental challenge to democracies in Latin America and the developing world more generally. Combining a standard game theoretic model of crisis bargaining with a unique dataset on courts, executives, and legislatures for 18 Latin American countries between 1985 and 2008, the article develops a strategic account of how interbranch crises emerge and evolve. In addition to providing the first systematic picture of the frequency, type, and location of interbranch crises for the region, the article demonstrates that the decision to initiate an interbranch crisis is influenced by the allocation of institutional powers, public support for the targeted branch, and the expectations of success based on recent experiences. Building on these results, the article identifies several novel directions for future research on institutional instability.     

The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America

It has become common for presidential candidates in Latin America to pick running-mates from outside of their own political parties in the form of political independents or politicians from other parties. As witnessed in several recent cases, this has added a new dynamic to Latin American presidentialism, not least in situations of political crisis. Drawing on a new database, the present paper enquires into the factors that may lead prospective presidents to select such “external vice-presidents”. The findings show that the logics behind selecting either a politician from another party or a political independent as running-mate differ. While the size of the presidential candidate's own party explains the decision to select vice-presidential candidate from another party, the choice of an independent is determined by the fragmentation of the party system. Furthermore, there is evidence that previous experiences of vicepresidential succession makes the selection of an independent running-mate more likely, possibly as a attempt to guard against challenges to the future presidency. Generally, presidential hopefuls tend to pick external running-mates who lack a strong political following, which also indicates that electoral logic is often mitigated by concern for the stability of the eventual presidency.     

The demographic consequences of austerity in Latin America: methodological aspects

This work reviews evidence in the literature of possible demographic effects of the austerity programs imposed on Latin American countries in the 1980s. The work focuses on methodological problems involved in assessing demographic changes and ascertaining that they were indeed attributable to the economic crisis. An introductory section describes the recession of the 1980s in Latin America, the declines in employment and living standards, and the health and social consequences of the deepening poverty. But the author argues that evaluation of health conditions, levels of nutrition, and especially factors such as infant mortality, fertility, marriage patterns, and migration as indicators of the impact of the economic depression is full of pitfalls that are not always obvious. Few Latin American countries have civil registration systems capable of providing accurate and up-to-date mortality and fertility data. Indirect methods currently in use were intended to analyze longterm levels and trends and are of little use for short-term fluctuations. Data on internal migration are scarce even in developed countries. Even when recent data are available it is often difficult or impossible to obtain data for comparison. Infant mortality and malnutrition levels, for example, are serious problems in many parts of Latin America, but series of data capable of demonstrating that they are truly consequences of the economic crisis are lacking. Another challenge is to separate the demographic effects of the debt crisis from longterm structural processes. The possibility of time lags and of different time frames may increase confusion. Almost a year must pass before effects on birth rates can be expected, for example. Neutralizing mechanisms may obscure the effects sought. Thus, the most impoverished urban sectors may return to the countryside to seek refuge in subsistence agriculture; their departure would in some measure diminish the consequences of recession in the urban economy. The type of cross-sectional analysis of differential fertility and mortality that is currently stressed in demographic studies is of limited utility for understanding the demographic impact of economic oscillations, for which a longitudinal approach is required. The next section of the article compares evidence of the effects of the recession of the 1980s with the Great Depression of the 1930s and with historical crises, suggesting that contemporary economic recessions have little in common in terms of causes or demographic consequences with historic crises. Specific studies and available data are then examined in the areas of fertility and mortality, longterm consequences of the economic recession, and migration.