Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation: Which Cases Are Relevant?

Previous researchers have argued that necessary and/or sufficientcauses should be tested through research designs that consideronly cases with limited combinations of scores on the independentand the dependent variables. I explore the utility for causalinference of the design proposed by these authors, as comparedto an "All Cases Design." I find that, if researchers definethe population carefully and appropriately, each case in thepopulation contributes to causal inference and is thereforeuseful. Previous authors reject this claim on the basis of aview that holds constant the marginal distribution of eitherthe dependent or the independent variable across the workingand the alternate hypotheses. I argue that this restrictionis not generally appropriate, and hence, an analysis that samplesfrom the entire population is logically defensible. I also arguethat this design is more statistically efficient. A reanalysisof two well-known studies demonstrates that sampling from allcases in the relevant population produces greater confidencein the hypothesis than sampling only from cases that experiencethe outcome.     

Are there really two cultures? A pilot study on the application of qualitative and quantitative methods in political science

In their 2012 publication A Tale of Two Cultures, Gary Goertz and James Mahoney argue that empirical research in the social sciences aiming at causal inference can be differentiated into a qualitative and a quantitative methodological culture. The two cultures differ fundamentally in how researchers approach and implement empirical studies. The argument is well laid out and comprehensively illustrated, but the empirical validity of the two cultures hypothesis has not yet been evaluated systematically. This note introduces a research project that aims to test the two cultures hypothesis via an empirical analysis of how qualitative and quantitative methods are applied. To determine whether there is a qualitative and quantitative method culture, the researchers initially sampled 30 articles from three journals (Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of Political Research, World Politics) in the 2008–2012 period. Based on this dataset, no evidence was found for the existence of coherent systems of methods practices in political science.     

Do Policies of Multiculturalism Change National Identities?

‘Policies of multiculturalism are often criticised for undermining national identities in one of three ways and in this article I suggest why this is questionable and then point to a more plausible relationship between the two. More specifically, I offer a hypothesis which is that policies of multiculturalism change national identities and I argue that this hypothesis is both theoretically plausible and empirically plausible in at least one instance. This argument is made in three stages and in the first of them I explain what I think policies of multiculturalism and national identities are. In the second stage I present my hypothesis and explain why it is theoretically plausible. In the third stage I use new evidence to suggest why my hypothesis is also empirically plausible in at least one instance. In the final stage I show why a sceptic who might doubt whether my hypothesis is plausible in other instances need not do so.’     

Economic Perceptions and Executive Approval in Comparative Perspective

Controversy exists over whether people use retrospective or prospective economic perceptions when evaluating their political leadership. In this article, I argue that the structure of the political-economic system affects which type of economic perception people employ. Specifically, in established democracies with developed economies, people will employ prospective assessments. In contrast, in nations with less well-established democratic systems and less developed economies, people will employ retrospective reasoning. They do so because under such conditions uncertainty about the future is too high for them to make reliable prospective assessments. I test this hypothesis on aggregate survey data taken from 41 nations in 2002. Support for the hypothesis is found. The conclusion puts the findings into perspective and discusses directions for future research.     

‘Genre Blurring’ and Public Administration: What Can We Learn from Ethnography?

This article seeks to broaden the craft of public administration by ‘blurring genres’. First, I explain the phrase ‘blurring genres’. Second, I provide some examples of early work in administrative ethnography. Third, I compare this early, modernist‐empiricist ethnography with interpretive ethnography, suggesting researchers confront three choices: naturalism vs. anti‐naturalism; intensive vs. hit‐and‐run fieldwork; and generalisation vs. local knowledge. After this general discussion, and fourth, I discuss the more prosaic issues that confront anyone seeking to use ethnography to study public administration and look at fieldwork roles, relevance, time, evidence and fieldwork relationships. Fifth, I describe and illustrate the several tools students of public administration can use as well as observation and interviews; namely, focus groups, para‐ethnography, visual ethnography, and storytelling. Finally, I conclude that ethnographic fieldwork provides texture, depth and nuance, and lets interviewees explain the meaning of their actions. It is an indispensable tool and a graphic example of how to enrich public administration by drawing on the theories and methods of the humanities.     

Acts of Faith: Churches and Political Engagement

Many observers suggest that white evangelical Protestant churches serve to mobilize their members into politics, while others argue that they encourage withdrawal from political life. This paper reconciles these two claims. I hypothesize that the time members of evangelical Protestant denominations spend in service to their church comes at the expense of participation in the wider community, contrary to the way mainline Protestant and Catholic churches foster civic activity among their members. However, I further hypothesize that the tight social networks formed through this intensive church activity can at times facilitate rapid and intense political mobilization. Data from the Citizen Participation Study supports the first hypothesis, while applying King's method of ecological inference to two elections in Alabama supports the second.     

The Next Big Thing: Local Celebrity

In this essay I observe that, as the field of celebrity studies established itself in the academy, there is a need for a distinctly sociological and interactional approach to celebrity. In particular, I argue for a focus on the experiential and relational dynamics of celebrity from the point of view of celebrities themselves, something which has so far been difficult for researchers to achieve. One way to accomplish this goal is to move in the direction celebrity itself seems to be headed: toward local or subcultural celebrities and their smaller, more segmented audiences. Empirical research on the lived experiences of local celebrities provides a practical way to generate celebrity-level data and makes an important sociological contribution to broader theorizing about the cultural phenomenon of celebrity.     

What They Do Does Matter: Incumbent Resource Allocations and the Individual House Vote

It is reasonable to presume that House incumbents through their behaviors and resource allocations (e.g., trips home, staff, etc.) are responsible for their electoral success. The empirical case for the resource allocation hypothesis, however, rests primarily upon the support of a few experimental design studies. The remainder of the evidence from 25 years of tests of this hypothesis, at the district and individual-levels, is littered with null findings. Scholars suggest two methodological obstructions hinder alternative hypothesis findings: simultaneity bias (in district and individual-level studies), and restricted variance on the allocation measures (in individual-level studies). In this investigation I apply methodological remedies for these hindrances-nonrecursive analyses on a pooled (1960–1976) NES elections data set. I uncover the strongest evidence yet that incumbents benefit electorally from their resource allocations (here: bills sponsored and cosponsored, staff, and district offices). In addition to this main result, I also discuss the influence generational replacement has on resource allocations and the vote.

Democracy and Capitalism: Collective Action Theory and Structural Analysis

The problem which I address in this paper consists in the connection between democracy and capitalism. I begin by specifying a model of actor theory which indicates a number of methods of achieving co-operation between actors I then review different structural theories of democracy which link up with these methods. Against this background I then seek to clarify—and to some extent evaluate—the arguments which different researchers have adduced in support of the thesis that capitalism is a prerequisite for democracy.     

Electoral context,habit-formation and voter turnout: A new analysis

Drawing on the concept of habitual voting (Plutzer, 2002), Franklin (2004) argues that the effects of electoral context on voter turnout will be largely limited to the cohorts who have experienced few elections in their lifetime. Those with more electoral experience would thus remain unaffected. Testing the above hypothesis is a way of a feasible indirect examination of the concept of habitual voting. Such tests have so far focused primarily on the impact of electoral competitiveness on turnout. I propose a new superior analysis of Franklin's hypothesis that, I claim, approaches the standards of a natural experiment. My test – focusing on the national election cycles as a contextual trait of the European Parliament elections – delivers new evidence supporting this hypothesis.     

Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Approach to Substantive and Statistical Significance

For over a half century, various fields in the behavioral and social sciences have debated the appropriateness of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in the presentation and assessment of research results. A long list of criticisms has fueled the so‐called significance testing controversy. The conventional NHST framework encourages researchers to devote excessive attention to statistical significance while underemphasizing practical (e.g., scientific, substantive, social, political) significance. I introduce a simple, intuitive approach that grounds testing in subject‐area expertise, balancing the dual concerns of detectability and importance. The proposed practical and statistical significance test allows the social scientist to test for real‐world significance, taking into account both sampling error and an assessment of what parameter values should be deemed interesting, given theory. The matter of what constitutes practical significance is left in the hands of the researchers themselves, to be debated as a natural component of inference and interpretation.     

Ticking all the boxes? A comparative study of social sorting and affective polarization

This study explores whether, in societies around the world, affective polarization – or animosity between citizens based on their political allegiance – is stronger if political divisions align with non-political ones. Such ‘social sorting’ has earlier been established to foster affective polarization in the United States. In this study, I argue that the underlying mechanism travels across the globe. I then present two complementary studies which confirm this hypothesis. First, I employ CSES data to predict the level of affective polarization by social sorting at 119 elections in 40 countries, showing that greater alignment of partisan divisions with non-political divisions in a society (along the lines of income, education, religion and region) is associated with stronger dislike towards political outgroups. Second, using Dutch panel data, I show that individuals who fit the socio-demographic ‘profile’ of their party better tend to be more affectively polarized. This has important implications for our understanding of affective polarization.     

Does Choice Bring Loyalty? Electoral Participation and the Development of Party Identification

Party identification is known to influence almost all aspects of political life. How this attachment develops across the adult life cycle, however, remains unknown. I argue that people reinforce their partisan predispositions by voting for their preferred party. Voting entails a choice over a set of alternatives. This choice is likely to induce rationalization. In so doing, it provides signals of group identity, which in turn strengthens people's partisan ties. Testing this hypothesis is made difficult because it implies a reciprocal relationship between partisanship and vote choice. I address this problem by using vote eligibility as an instrument of vote in a sample of almost equally aged respondents. The results indicate that elections fortify prior partisan orientations. Moreover, they do so not by increasing political information. Rather, it is the act of voting for a party that, itself, bolsters partisan attachment. This act leaves a long‐lasting imprint on people's partisan outlooks.     

The political budget cycle across varying degrees of democracy

The political budget cycle (PBC) is a well-known theory claiming that leaders manipulate the economy in proximity to elections to improve their chances of re-election. While the existence of the phenomenon in democracies has been thoroughly discussed, little attention has been given to the theoretical justification and empirical evidence of its existence in autocracies. In this article, I present a hypothesis of the magnitude of the PBC in both autocracies and democracies, claiming that as the democracy level increases, the incentive of leaders to manipulate the economy rises, but their ability to do so is more limited. Therefore, I expect the magnitude of the PBC to be the lowest in states that are strongly autocratic (due to a lack of incentives) and in states that are strongly democratic (due to a lack of ability). The effect should be the strongest in weakly autocratic or weakly democratic states. The empirical analysis presented in the article supports the hypothesis of a non-linear correlation between the PBC and levels of democracy.     

Reassessing Schoenfeld Residual Tests of Proportional Hazards in Political Science Event History Analyses

An underlying assumption of proportional hazards models is that the effect of a change in a covariate on the hazard rate of event occurrence is constant over time. For scholars using the Cox model, a Schoenfeld residual‐based test has become the disciplinary standard for detecting violations of this assumption. However, using this test requires researchers to make a choice about a transformation of the time scale. In practice, this choice has largely consisted of arbitrary decisions made without justification. Using replications and simulations, we demonstrate that the decision about time transformations can have profound implications for the conclusions reached. In particular, we show that researchers can make far more informed decisions by paying closer attention to the presence of outlier survival times and levels of censoring in their data. We suggest a new standard for best practices in Cox diagnostics that buttresses the current standard with in‐depth exploratory data analysis.     

Employees without a Cause: The Motivational Effects of Prosocial Impact in Public Service

ABSTRACT

Public service employees often lack opportunities to see the prosocial impact of their jobs—how their efforts make a difference in other people's lives. Drawing on recent job design theory and research, I tested the hypothesis that the motivation of public service employees can be enhanced by connecting them to their prosocial impact. In a longitudinal quasi-experiment, a group of fundraising callers serving a public university met a fellowship student who benefited from the funds raised by the organization. A full month later, these callers increased significantly in the number of pledges and the amount of donation money that they obtained, whereas callers in a control group did not change on these measures. I discuss the implications of these results for theory, research, and practice related to work motivation in public service.     

Estimation and Inference Are Missing Data Problems: Unifying Social Science Statistics via Bayesian Simulation

Bayesian simulation is increasingly exploited in the socialsciences for estimation and inference of model parameters. Butan especially useful (if often overlooked) feature of Bayesiansimulation is that it can be used to estimate any function ofmodel parameters, including "auxiliary" quantities such as goodness-of-fitstatistics, predicted values, and residuals. Bayesian simulationtreats these quantities as if they were missing data, samplingfrom their implied posterior densities. Exploiting this principlealso lets researchers estimate models via Bayesian simulationwhere maximum-likelihood estimation would be intractable. Bayesiansimulation thus provides a unified solution for quantitativesocial science. I elaborate these ideas in a variety of contexts:these include generalized linear models for binary responsesusing data on bill cosponsorship recently reanalyzed in PoliticalAnalysis, item—response models for the measurement ofrespondent's levels of political information in public opinionsurveys, the estimation and analysis of legislators' ideal pointsfrom roll-call data, and outlier-resistant regression estimatesof incumbency advantage in U.S. Congressional elections     

An empirical test of neutrality and the crowding-out hypothesis

This paper tests Warr's neutrality hypothesis that the voluntary provision of a public good is independent of the distribution of income. Specifically, I test the null hypothesis of neutrality against the alternative that total contributions to a public good will be larger the less equally income is distributed. To test this hypothesis, a new data set is constructed by merging data on total voluntary contributions to individual public radio stations with 1990 Census data on the income distribution in each station's listening area. I find that voluntary contributions increase as income inequality rises.     

Inequality and delinquency: sorting out some class and race effects

Both neo-conservatives who tend to blame young people for their lack of moral self control and neo-liberals who decry the enduring effects of racism and poverty operate from the presupposition that “ghetto youths” engage in a variety of self-destructive behaviors, including violence and substance abuse. While debating whether these effects can be understood in “cultural” terms as the products of upbringing, or as the consequence of a lack of opportunity, nearly all researchers couch their empirical frameworks in the image of a unidimensional scale of problem behavior that affects poor youths generally and poor Black youths particularly. This line of inquiry raises some interesting ideas, but does not tell us about the process through which race or class lead to delinquency. In this paper, I critically examine previous work and present empirical models specifying structural and intermediate mechanisms implicated in delinquent behavior. I analyze a national, multilevel sample of Black and White males in the 12th grade to assess the degree to which structural, family and peer factors influence two forms of delinquency—alcohol use and fighting. The results cast doubt on culture-based assumptions, force us to reconsider the theoretical underpinnings of a large segment of research in this area, and encourage us to think differently about linkages between race, class, and delinquency or crime.