Democracy promotion and the challenges of illiberal regional powers: introduction to the special issue

This special issue examines Western efforts at democracy promotion, reactions by illiberal challengers and regional powers, and political and societal conditions in target states. We argue that Western powers are not unequivocally committed to the promotion of democracy and human rights, while non-democratic regional powers cannot simply be described as “autocracy supporters”. This article introduces the special issue. First, illiberal regional powers are likely to respond to Western efforts at democracy promotion in third countries if they perceive challenges to their geostrategic interests in the region or to the survival of their regime. Second, Western democracy promoters react to countervailing policies by illiberal regimes if they prioritize democracy and human rights goals over stability and security goals which depends in turn on their perception of the situation in the target countries and their overall relationships to the non-democratic regional powers. Third, the effects on the ground mostly depend on the domestic configuration of forces. Western democracy promoters are likely to empower liberal groups in the target countries, while countervailing efforts by non-democratic regional powers will empower illiberal groups. In some cases, though, countervailing efforts by illiberal regimes have the counterintuitive effect of fostering democracy by strengthening democratic elites and civil society.     

Educational efficiency in the Caribbean: a comparative analysis

With a rapidly growing population and limited resources, accountability has taken on increased importance, especially in the area of public management. To assess the effectiveness of public spending on education in the Caribbean, this article compares performance in five Caribbean nations, looking at input indicators such as the teacher–pupil ratio, expenditure per pupil, the number of adequately trained teachers as a proportion of total teaching staff, and public commitment to education. It analyses their impact on output indicators, including performance in English and mathematics, the repetition rate, and survival rate to the final grade in school. The article concludes that the levels of efficiency in the development of human capital in the Caribbean are very uneven, and that serious challenges face Caribbean countries as they seek to maximise the returns on their investment in education.     

巴尔干国际治理:科索沃案例

冲突后地区的国际治理是冷战后国际社会面临的新挑战.本文对国际治理的起源进行了简要分析,考察了巴尔干国际治理的条件与功能,较为全面地探讨了科索沃国际治理的背景、法律依据、实际运作及其经验,并对科索沃独立后国际治理的演化进行了简要评述.     

Aid,growth and peace: a comparative analysis

This article disaggregates aid data to enrich our understanding of the patterns of post-conflict aid. We find that the front-loading of aid after a peace agreement, detected by previous research, has not been the general pattern. To begin with, relief and aid need separating out, commitments and disbursement distinguished, and four-year averages replaced by annual figures. Detailed analysis of seven post-conflict cases confirms that the political contexts of donation and implementation, including political assessments of peace agreements, have considerable influence on aid patterns. Finally, high levels of aid and rapid economic growth are not essential preconditions for sustaining peace. More significant are the short-term stabilisation strategies adopted and the distributive effects of structural adjustment.     

Constructing new environments versus attitude adjustment: contrasting the substance of democracy in UN and EU democracy promotion discourses

In contrasting UN with EU democracy promotion discourses, the article contributes to the debate on the substance of EU democracy promotion by approaching the question of ‘democratic substance’ from the vantage point of sovereignty. For its analytical framing, it draws on relevant aspects of Foucault's work on power. The article suggests that, due to their diverging obligations to sovereignty, the substance of democracy promotion in UN discourses revolves around an institutional-centric understanding, whereas in EU discourses we see a significant reconceptualization of democracy as a norms-based concept. The latter does not aim at the government of society but the ethical self-governance of socially embedded individuals. It is argued that, with the decreasing purchase of democracy as a universal political project and the growing concern with local contexts, the EU's norms-based conception emerges as better equipped to adapt to contemporary challenges of governing. The article concludes with raising some doubts about the democratic promise and potential of the democratic rationality underpinning EU discourses. Democracy, participation and political change are no longer conceived in terms of shaping and influencing public agenda but refer to socially shaping and influencing subjective perceptions and behaviours.     

Democracy in China: a distant dream

Since the late 1970s, China has made enormous efforts to liberalize its markets and integrate itself into the world economy. Yet these developments have not been accompanied by any meaningful degree of liberalization of the political system. This paper attempts to account for the lack of democratization in China. In particular, it reviews the process of gradual economic liberalization initiated under Deng Xiao Ping and discusses the issue of corruption. Economic liberalization, it is shown, has provided new opportunities for the political elite to translate power into wealth, thereby making it more reluctant than ever to relax its grip on power. In a system of “autocratic capitalism,” the ruling elite both in business and government lack the incentives to introduce political liberalization. At this stage, dreams that the country’s economic liberalization will someday lead to democracy remain distant.

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对拉美民主的解析--读《拉丁美洲的民主:公民民主的未来》

20多年前拉美民主化进程启动时,拉美精英阶层、普通民众以及国际社会都对拉美民主化发展充满期待。然而,进入新千年以来,拉美民主化进程正面临着前所未有的危机,拉美国家已有多位总统迫于民众压力提前卸任;一些国家的选举投票率下降,民众示威抗议等活动时有发生。2004年4月,联合国开发计划署发表了由专家学者完成的关于拉美18国民主现状的报告《拉丁美洲的民主:公民民主的未来》(UNDP,DemocracyinLatinAmerica:TowardsaCitizens’Democracy,Argentina,2004)。这份理论与事实并重的报告对拉美民主问题进行了独到的解析,为深入了解拉美民…     

Spillover effect: aftershocks in Kosovo,Macedonia and Serbia

The 1999 NATO intervention against Yugoslavia may prove to be a pivotal event in European security. Yet much of former Yugoslavia seems to hover in tenuous uncertainty, Kosovo remains an international protectorate and Macedonia's fate is uncertain. Specifically, aftershock events of the post-Kosovo intervention led to a security degradation in Macedonia in 2001 and seriously hampered the recovery efforts of Serbia after the ‘October Revolution’ of 2000. This article presents a broad problem-set of dynamics that were and are driving forces in the shaping, analysis and future direction of the European security architecture. Attempts to explain conflict that focus too narrowly on ethnic differences or too broadly evoke human justice as grounds for intervention will consistently miss the strategic mark. There are indeed spillover effects in Macedonia and in Serbia that have direct relations with the aftermath of the 1999 Kosovo intervention.     

South African news in international radio broadcasting: a comparative analysis

SUMMARY

This is a comparative content analysis, over a five year period from 1987 to 1991, of the coverage of South African news in international radio broadcasting, specifically Voice of America, Radio Moscow and Radio RSA. This study takes as its point of departure the premise that different ideologies produce differing concepts of news, and this in turn will produce differing images of South Africa in that news. As there is no suitable theory to explain the findings of this study, a triadic model of international radio broadcasting news has been constructed, based on a Three World's taxonomy. This study establishes the importance of South Africa to international radio news, the topics covered, and determines the trends and differences in that coverage over the study period. These findings are discussed in terms of ideologically determined news values.     

主权民主:普京对俄罗斯民主理论与实践的探索

普京执政以后,主张在加强国家权威主义的基础上发展符合俄罗斯国情的民主政治。普京的“主权民主”思想,既是维护俄国家政治、经济、军事权益的现实需要,也是为保证后普京时代俄国家政治体制得以继承与发展的一项战略举措。     

EU member state participation in military operations: a configurational comparative analysis

Contrary to what the EU’s image as a civilian power suggests, the EU member states have had 50,000–100,000 troops deployed outside their home countries for most of the post-Cold-War period. Although the vast majority of these troops were active in operations with a strong European presence, the member states’ patterns of military engagement differ significantly. This study provides a systematic analysis of the member states’ contributions to military operations. More specifically, it examines which (combinations of) conditions consistently led to participation in EUFOR Congo, UNIFIL II, EUFOR Chad, the 2011 military intervention in Libya and the air strikes against the Islamic State. Methodologically, it builds on most different similar outcome/most similar different outcome and qualitative comparative analysis. The results of the analysis show that four conditions account for the bulk of the member states’ patterns of military engagements: military resources, competing deployments, UN peacekeeping tradition and regional trade.     

To Prevent a Revolution: John F. Kennedy and the Promotion of Democracy in Iran

John F. Kennedy came to power in 1961 with Iran on the verge of revolution against the Shah's unpopular policies. To stabilise the situation, his Administration attempted to promote democracy through a development plan based on the precepts of modernisation theory. Backed by academic theorists who argued that promoting democracy was the best way to secure victory in the Cold War, Kennedy developed an ambitious plan to transform Iran. This policy was seen as essential to replace the inevitable uncontrollable revolution and subsequent loss of Iran, with one controlled and directed by Washington. This analysis provides the first comprehensive examination of this plan and its foundations that has heretofore been overlooked. Kennedy's policy towards Iran illuminates the role that external powers can have in manufacturing, supporting, and encouraging a country's transition to democracy. Its failure, and the absence of any replacement plan to ensure political reform, made inevitable the uncontrollable revolution which eventually came in 1978.     

Lessons from the Asian financial crisis for the eurozone: a comparative analysis of the perilous politics of austerity in Asia and Europe

This paper comparatively examines diverse responses from three major actors in the global political economy (the state, civil society, international financial institutions) to the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the current eurozone crisis. First, it analyses conditional lending policies of international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the International Monetary Fund toward countries in fiscal distress. It then critically examines how the lending policies engendered social tensions and conflicts as austerity measures such as cuts to social welfare programmes hit hard on the populace. Examining how the state and civil society in Asia reacted to and, as a result of contentious state–civil society interactions, altered the policies of IFIs, the paper draws lessons from the Asian financial crisis for the European Union and puts forwards alternative policy suggestions.     

Democracy in Latin America: Problems and prospects

This essay examines, by way of a series of brief country sketches, the current state of democratization in Latin America. It argues that in the formal sense progress has been significant but that only in a handful of countries has the economic development which democracy requires taken place. Many serious impediments (corruption, party weaknesses, public alienation, and poor policy implementation among them) remain. It will be decades before a definitive judgement can be reached.     

Chinese direct investment in the EU and the US: a comparative view

Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in developed economies has increased substantially in recent years, driven by policy liberalization and structural adjustments in China’s economy. Efforts to accurately describe the dimensions of this increase are complicated by problems with official statistics and the complexity of deal structures. This article introduces the major problems of capturing data on global cross-border investment flows and elaborates on the particular difficulties of measuring Chinese outward FDI. It identifies alternative datasets that can help to better capture the scope and patterns of the Chinese overseas investment and uses one of them to describe the growth of Chinese investment in the EU and the US since 2000, highlighting similarities and differences in investment patterns in the world’s two biggest economies.     

埃斯特拉达：菲律宾特色民主的产物与替罪羊

菲律宾被罢黜总统埃斯特拉达（以下称埃氏）是菲律宾历届当选总统中得票率最高的“民选”总统,曾被菲律宾人评价为继50年代马克赛赛总统之后最受群众欢迎的总统。然而,在执政后仅一年多便遭致来自各派势力的激烈反对,并成为亚洲第一位遭受弹劾的总统,最终在民变、政变、军变的压力下黯然交出了政权。埃氏作为民选总统,政治生涯在任期仅二年半期间发生了如此戏剧性的变化,其中缘由值得深思。本文试图从菲律宾特色民主为出发点,探索埃氏这位民选总统倒台的原因,并对菲律宾特色民主“EDSA第二次人民力量”的后遗问题进行一些初步的探讨。     

Nato Enlargement and the Spread of Democracy: Evidence and Expectations

The second enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since the end of the cold war fueled an ongoing debate over whether the alliance contributes to democratization in Europe. In the 1990s, critics warned that the 1999 NATO enlargement would cultivate a new cold war and prove irrelevant to democratic consolidation in central Europe. Events have not borne out these forecasts, however. In Poland, not only did NATO build a civilian consensus in favor of democratic control over the armed forces corresponding to NATO norms, but it also delegitimized Polish arguments for defense self-sufficiency that had derived their credibility from Poland's experience of military vulnerability and foreign domination. Such democratizing and denationalizing trends have contributed to stability in postcommunist Europe. An assessment of the seven states that joined in 2004 similarly reveals some scope for NATO's influence in all cases. The alliance's access to domestic reform processes, however, will be uneven across cases in ways largely consistent with the predictions of the theoretical framework in this article.