Levels of Centralisation and Autonomy in Russia’s ‘Party of Power’: Cross-Regional Variations

The institutionalisation and nationalisation of Russia’s party system, which is dominated by United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya—UR), has played a major role in the building of Putin’s ‘power vertical’. Nevertheless, despite the fact that formal relations within UR are highly centralised, informal practices allow for far greater degrees of regional autonomy. Focusing on UR’s candidate selection for the 2011 Duma election this article provides an examination of cross-regional variations in the relations between UR’s Party Centre and its regional branches. As electoral legislation requires the segmentation of party lists into ‘regional groups’, the composition of the regional lists, specifically the share of ‘native candidates’, is considered as an indicator of the level of autonomy of regional branches. Ordinal regression analysis confirms our main theoretical hypotheses. In the more financially autonomous regions, UR’s regional branches will have more leverage and bargaining power in their relations with the Party Centre. A second important factor is heterogeneity: the more a region’s socio-economic indices deviate from the national average (either up or down), the less its UR branch is subordinate to the Party Centre.     

Prospects for Managed Democracy in Russia

The 2003 Duma election resulted in the victory of the party of power, thereby strengthening managed democracy in Russia. Since then, political trends in Russia's regions and rural politics provide considerable evidence of the increasing ability of pro-Kremlin forces to maximise their electoral fortunes in national contests. These political trends make it likely that United Russia will not only emerge as the dominant party in the 2007 Duma election, but will provide the Kremlin and Putin's successor with a compliant lower house. The outcome is that Putin's successor will find the political infrastructure to continue managed democracy.     

Principal–Agent Dynamics and Electoral Manipulation: Local Risks,Patronage and Tactical Variation in Russian Elections, 2003–2012

Abstract

Why are some elections manipulated more severely than others, and why do the techniques used to manipulate them vary over time and space? This article addresses these related questions by showing that patronage resources—not incumbent popularity—make manipulation appealing to frontline agents, while local political conditions can make manipulation personally risky for them. Agents can mitigate these risks by adopting more dispersed forms of manipulation like vote-buying, rather than more centralised falsification. These hypotheses are tested using forensic analysis of electoral data from more than 90,000 precincts per election across Russia’s 83 regions, from 2003 to 2012.     

Renovating Democracy and Salvaging Globalization

The worst fears of the American Founding fathers were realized in the 2016 presidential election when the democratic ballot box unleashed some of the darkest forces in the body politic . While it remains to be seen what his administration accomplishes , Donald Trump showed that a campaign of outright lies and invective against the world outside and perceived enemies within delivered over the latest direct access technology —Twitter—was the path to the top of the world's most powerful nation .     

Campaign Finances and Provincial Elections in Ontario,Canada

This study analyses the relationship between provincial election outcomes and campaign spending. This study is novel as it utilizes only those expenses that should have a causal link with election success. OLS regression controlled for candidate quality, incumbency, and economic conditions reveals a positive (negative) relationship between campaign (challenger) spending and election succession, while logistic regression results in a 93% correct prediction rate. Two-staged least-square regression corroborates the findings. The results suggest that although campaign spending is useful, incumbency status and experience are more important. Additionally, campaign spending is less important during close elections and has a diminishing marginal return.     

Electronic Resources and the Study of Political Elites in Russia

Developments in the information society in Russia have led to the creation of an abundance of online primary texts by political actors and institutions. This article surveys a large selection of official electronic texts with the aim of encouraging more extensive use of online sources and easing researchers' navigation of Russian politicians' use of the internet. While the authors do not claim that online data can replace the insights gained from elite interviews, the article suggests that online texts could be used more extensively as a valuable addition to existing methods applied to the study of Russian political elites.     

Manifestations of delegative democracy in Russian local politics: what does it mean for the future of Russia?

In attempts to describe post-communist politics adequately, this paper employs the concept of delegative democracy for analyzing Russia's local politics. It argues that the election rather than appointment by the President of local governors in Russia has facilitated the establishment of a system which can be generally described as delegative democracy. This regime inherits free and contested elections from the democratic system and non-democratic methods of power consolidation from the authoritarian system. As a mixture of those two hardly reconcilable types of political system, delegative democracy in Russia has gained a shape and reached a certain degree of stability during 1993–95. This gain may delay the consolidation of representative democracy in Russia for an indefinite time and eventually lead to a new level of economic stagnation and a return to authoritarianism.     

The trail of votes in Russia's 1999 Duma and 2000 presidential elections

Russia's array of political parties, based largely on Moscow-centered personalities with presidential aspirations rather than coherent policy programs, continued its seemingly directionless evolution in 1999 with the appearance of two new ‘parties’—Otechestvo and Edinstvo—each designed primarily to facilitate presidential aspirations. In contrast and despite wrenching economic changes, Russia from 1991 through 1996, at least, offers the picture of a surprisingly stable electorate in which the flow of votes across elections from one party or candidate to the next follows a coherent and not altogether unpredictable pattern. Aggregate election returns suggests that this pattern persisted through the 1999 Duma balloting to the 2000 presidential election. The KPRF, as well as Yabloko, won nearly as many votes in 1999 as in 1996, while the votes lost by Our Home Is Russia, the LDPR, Lebed's allies in 1996, and a bevy of other small and not altogether anti-reform parties nearly account for Otechestvo and Edinstvo totals. Here, however, we offer a close examination of official rayon-level election returns from both 1999 and 2000 and conclude that this picture of stability masks the importance we ought to attribute to the influence of regional governors and their abilities to direct the votes of their electorates in a nearly wholesale fashion. We argue, moreover, that this conclusion is important to the matter of reforming Russia's institutions so as to encourage a coherent party system. Specifically, rather than focus on electoral institutional reform, we argue that the principal culprit in explaining the failure of a coherent party system to materialize is the influence of Russia's super-presidentialism.     

Party manifestos and local accountability: A content analysis of local election pledges in Wales

Party manifestos are seen as an important instrument for measuring levels of accountability at central government level. In order to establish whether manifestos contribute to local accountability, a content analysis is applied to party manifestos produced for the 1995 Welsh local elections. Evidence demonstrates that during this election campaign local parties in Wales chose to focus upon policies relating to the environment and local government reorganisation, with mainly strategic pledges on social policy areas. Despite the perception of low levels of party politicisation in Wales, the majority of local pledges were found to be detailed and specific. Thus party manifestos provide a sound basis for local political accountability.     

Electoral Fraud and Electoral Geography: United Russia Strongholds in the 2007 and 2011 Russian Parliamentary Elections*

Despite United Russia’s (Edinaya Rossiya—UR) dominance in repeated Russian legislative elections, the correlates of the party’s electoral support remain noticeably understudied beyond the influence of electoral manipulation. I pinpoint the specific contours of UR’s strongholds in the two most recent parliamentary elections in Russia—2007 and 2011—focusing on raion- and regional-level correlates of the vote using an original dataset. UR has been undergirded by geographically concentrated ethnic minorities and the countryside, and these patterns of support have persisted even in the absence of fraud, suggesting that the dominant party’s electoral windfalls cannot be attributed solely to electoral malfeasance.     

Counting chickens before they're hatched: The importance of pre-transition planning for presidential success

Presidential transitions are crucial to the process of regime change in the US's federal executive. During this ill-defined and transient period, newly elected presidents prepare their policies and political environment for governing. This article discusses the process and impact of presidential transitions and assesses the extent to which presidential candidates see preparing for governing as being as important as campaigning. The author considers whether presidential candidates undertake any preparations for office during the campaign and if there is any connection between campaigning for the White House and taking over the White House. The conduct and performance of presidential transitions since the Nixon administration are evaluated and critical observations are made of Gore and Bush's attempts during the recent election campaign to progress towards an effective governance strategy rather than just campaign victory.     

The final triumph of the Pax Americana? Western intervention in Yugoslavia and Russia's debate on the post-Cold War order

This paper addresses the question of world order by considering how Western military actions in Yugoslavia were perceived from a different cultural perspective. It traces how the NATO-led bombing campaign during March–June of 1999 affected various visions of world order that had existed in Russia before the campaign and describes the discursive change this campaign produced. The argument is made that Russia's foreign policy elites, from Westernizers to Neo-Communists and Expansionists, perceived Western goals in Yugoslavia differently from their counterparts in the West. However, they differed in their recommendations regarding Russia's response and lessons to be drawn from the Kosovo crisis. The paper also identifies several points where the different perspectives can converge. More specifically, all Russian schools of thought viewed the NATO campaign as a dangerous precedent potentially destabilizing the existing world order. They also shared the conviction that Russia should play a larger role in world affairs and that without Russia's involvement there could be no peace and stability in the Balkans and in Europe. They point to the United Nations as the only forum for debating the legitimacy of military interventions and for preventing interventions carried out without the approval of the UN.     

From the Cradle of the Nation to the Most Expensive Serbian Word: Changes in Serbian Public Language in the Last Decade of the Twentieth Century

Russian National Unity (Russkoe Natsionalnoe Edinstvo—RNE) is the largest militant fascist group in Russia today. The founder and leader of the RNE, Aleksandr P. Barkashov, speaks of himself as a national‐socialist, and praises Hitler's deeds for Germany. The RNE has pledged to establish a system of ethnic segregation in Russia were it to come to power.     

Commemorating 1917 in Russia: Ambivalent State History Policy and the Church’s Conquest of the History Market

Abstract

Russia’s historical policy towards the centenary of 1917 was composed of several parallel strategies: diminishing the meaning of the event to avoid the head of state and other government figures having to take a stance; outsourcing commemorative events, with no pre-planned grand design; developing a reconciliatory narrative of the ‘Whites’ and the ‘Reds’; and allowing other actors to promote a plurality of contradictory readings of the events. Yet the space left by the state’s refusal to commemorate 1917 has been taken over by the Church, which, as today’s most active engineer of Russia’s historical policy, promoted a very clear pro-Tsarist narrative best embodied by the multimedia historical park ‘Russia—my history’ (Rossiya—moya istoriya).     

The dual logic of Russia's party system nationalization

The article attempts to identify major factors of the nationalization of the vote in contemporary Russia using the two level approach: the between- and within-region. The former compares regions as units of analysis while the latter additionally takes into account voting in municipalities to obtain levels of voting homogeneity within the regions. The study uses data from the last 2012–2016 national-regional electoral cycle investigating both federal and regional election results. Following Ishiyama (2002) for the between-region level of analysis the Regional Party Vote Inequality index has been utilized. The Party Nationalization Score proposed by Jones and Mainwaring (2003) has been applied to the measurement of voting territorial diversity at the within-region level. The results show that regional political factors may be still considered as major drivers of the nationalization of the vote as it did in the 1990s. The difference is that in politically recentralized Russia non-competitive regions headed by politically strong governors provides between-region inequality rather than contributing to nationalization. At the same time, the similarity continues in the ability of governors’ “political machines” to contribute homogeneity of the vote, but only within their regions.     

Transnistria’s Order of Friendship: Legitimacy Through Diplomatic Practice

Abstract

What strategies do de facto states employ in conducting their diplomacy? This article examines Transnistria’s Order of Friendship, a state award that primarily targets foreigners, by analysing the profiles of all known award recipients. The Order is found to be a political tool to enhance Transnistria’s domestic and external legitimacy in the absence of recognised sovereignty. The findings confirm the literature on Transnistria’s ‘bandwagoning’ with Russia, indicate that a patron’s support must be actively sought rather than taken for granted, and—since many awardees are from jurisdictions other than the patron state Russia—point to the need to examine the foreign policy of de facto states more holistically.     

The Way Out of Russian Deadlock: Shift Power to the Regions

Aleksandr Lebed, the populist former general, is a leading candidate in the 2000 election for president of Russia. He is currently the governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory (Siberia), one of Russia's richest regions. His remarks are adapted from an exclusive interview he granted to Genrikh Borovik for NPQ in Moscow during the August crisis.     

The Effects of Political Socialization in Event Marketing on the Youth: —The Three Little Pigs and Good Luck Charms Campaigns in Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Election

Event marketing allows a brand to target an audience by creating or enhancing an image through association with a particular event. In the political arena, a party is also a brand, and a campaign can be considered a series of event marketing activities. This study explores if the two major event marketing activities of the 2012 Taiwan presidential election campaign, Three Little Pigs and Good Luck Charms, might have impacted on young voters’ preference for the respective parties and their perception of the parties’ images via political socialization. An online survey was applied with a random sample of 815 drawn from InsightXplorer’s Cyber Panel database. The results demonstrated the significant effects of political socialization by media, family, and peers in that when people encountered the campaign events more often in the media and had more discussions with their families and peers, they were more likely to have a positive attitude towards the party and perceive the party image positively. Additionally, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters and non-Kuomintang (KMT) supporters were more likely to perceive Three Little Pigs as positive for the DPP, while KMT supporters and non-DPP supporters tended to believe that Good Luck Charms had positive impacts for KMT.     

Legitimising Victories: Electoral Authoritarian Control in Russia’s Gubernatorial Elections

We explore the evolution of the Kremlin’s election control strategy in response to the reintroduction of gubernatorial elections in 2012. Our analysis focuses on the evolution of four tools used to engineer electoral competition: auxiliary institutions, subnational punishment regimes, ballot construction, and turnout manipulation. We argue that election managers deploy these mechanisms to maximise victories for state-sponsored candidates while minimising the possibility for post-election protest. The analysis demonstrates that electoral manipulation presents conflicting incentives for the Kremlin and its regional officials. It also shows the critical role that Russia’s systemic opposition plays in the electoral management system and regime stability.     

Reinventing the politburo: central mechanisms for policy formulation and coordination in russia and hungary

In most economies in transition in Central and Eastern Europe, the senior organs of the communist party—the Politburo, the Central Committee Secretariat, and the Central Committee apparat—played a critical role in the formulation and coordination of government policy. Government ministries served a largely instrumental role in implementing decisions that were arrived at by the party. The collapse of these structures has left a vacuum that countries have attempted to fill in various ways. In many respects, Hungary and Russia represent the opposite ends of the spectrum. After some trial and error, the Hungarians have developed a system that—although not perfect —does a reasonably effective job in vetting proposals for decision and resolving issues efficiently and effectively. At the other extreme, with the exception of the areas of defense and foreign policy, the process of intergovernmental coordination has virtually broken down within Russia. This paper chronicles the efforts of both countries to develop alternative mechanisms for policy formulation and implementation, highlights their existing strengths and weaknesses, and concludes with some observations regarding the reasons behind their relative success or failure.