中东国家民主实践模式的思考

纵观世界政治发展进程,民主化作为政治现代化的主要内容,已成为当与今许多国家的政治现实。然而,民主化在中东地区仍处于滞后状态。伊拉克战争后,美国从自身利益出发,推行"大中东民主战略",加快对中东地区的政治整合与"民主改造"步伐,从而在中东地区引     

20世纪中东政党政治的历史演进、制约因素及发展趋势

现代民族国家的建立为中东政党政治提供了实践空间,中东诸国通过颁布宪法、组成议会和开展选举建构现代政治模式,但领导人的奇理斯玛式权威和一党制的政治实践使中东政党政治具有鲜明的威权政治色彩,从一党制到多党制的过渡体现了民主化进步,但党国合一和军人威权传统、西方政治干预制约中东政党政治的完善。现代伊斯兰主义通过伊斯兰政党参与政党政治,通过整合伊斯兰信条和现代政治理念的实践来化解社会矛盾并推进民主化进程。如今,中东民族主义政党执政空间变小,政党意识形态分歧弱化,新生政治力量冲击政坛,只有建构具有鲜明民族地域特色的政党政治才能真正实现中东民主转型。     

传统与现代之间--非洲村社社会主义评析

非洲村社社会主义是非洲民族主义领导人力图克服民族意识危机、寻求国家民族一体化的一种努力,对于促进多种族、多部族国家向现代民族国家转变起到了积极作用.非洲村社社会主义的真正意旨是试图在立足自身传统的基础上实现现代化,但由于非洲村社社会主义领导人对自身的传统不能给予客观科学的分析,导致非洲村社社会主义选择了过激的发展战略、政策和措施,使得非洲的现代化进程遭受重大挫折.     

影响中东形势发展的各种因素

哈立德·拉赫曼(巴基斯坦政策研究所所长):中东局势一直在两个层面上受到内部因素的影响,一是关于中东地区内部政治久拖不决的问题,二是最近由于域外大国插手导致的情况.     

中东大变局下的“库尔德之春”走向

<正>"阿拉伯之春"不仅带来地区性大动荡,也正在催生新的地缘政治格局和地区秩序,推动地区政治力量对比加速转化,中东传统政治生态正在发生历史性变化。而在这场中东大变局中,席卷一时的"阿拉伯之春"已悄然失色,并日益转化为"库尔德之春"[1],中东地区的库尔德人正面临抬升本民族地位,改变历史命运,实现"建国梦"的新战略机遇期。在新中东格局下,库尔德人日益跻身于地区主要政治力量之列,势必在地区发挥更大作用。     

当前中东安全局势及对中国中东外交的影响

中东变局三年多来,地区安全局势变得日益复杂。除了传统热点问题之外,由政治转型引发和激活的地区教俗、教派以及其他各种政治力量之间的斗争和社会矛盾正成为影响地区安全的新因素。埃及围绕支持和反对穆斯林兄弟会的政治博弈不仅造成该国社会分裂,也对地区稳定构成潜在威胁,叙利亚危机久拖不决致使地区极端主义思潮沉渣泛起、恐怖主义势力趁乱扩张并有向区外国家溢出之势。此外,美国战略重心东移导致原有地缘政治格局发生变化,造成地区国家之间关系出现新的紧张,而美俄等大国在中东乃至全球事务中的互动也对中东安全局势产生深刻的影响。未来相当长的时期里,中东传统热点问题依然是影响地区安全和地缘政治关系的主要因素,而持续深入转型将成为中东各国政治和社会发展的主要特征。中国与中东关系将基于这一趋势而发展,中国的中东外交也应以此为重点,更加积极主动地参与中东事务,促进热点问题的和平解决,并尽自己所能帮助中东国家实现平稳转型。     

美国中东战略：转型期的迷惑

近年来,美国中东战略出现诸多前后矛盾、反复无常的现象。以2011年美军撤出伊拉克为标志,美国中东战略进入转型期。美国中东战略转型在一定程度上回到"离岸平衡"的"常态",诸如大规模军事干预、输出民主等以往战略行动被搁置。过去十年,美国在中东的几大利益重要性发生变化,导致其中东战略目标发生漂移。随着中东形势及美国国内政治的变化,美国实现中东战略目标的军事威慑、结盟援助与和平谈判三大手段明显乏力失灵。然而,美国短期内不会大规模减少在中东的投入,未来相当长时期内仍将是对中东最有影响的外部国家。     

肯尼亚“草民运动”的兴起与影响

肯尼亚部族众多,政党的部族属性色彩突出。肯尼亚独立以来,选举政治主要围绕部族、地域利益展开,部族政治成为贯穿政治发展的主线。“草民运动”主张以议题为导向革新政治运作,重塑以往基于部族、地域认同的选举政治,构建“自下而上”的经济模式,寻求以能力赋权方式助力底层民众改变自身境遇。“草民运动”将对肯尼亚政治发展进程产生深刻影响,但也面临政策落实困难等挑战。     

试析中东人口问题及其影响

人口激增和青年人口膨胀是中东地区比较突出的两大人口问题,长期困扰着中东国家,同时也在当前中东地区的政治转型中扮演着重要作用。在经济、政治和社会等多重因素的综合作用下,中东地区逐步形成了以人口增长速度快、青年人口众多、贫富两极分化严重为特征的人口结构。这不仅带来严重的国内政治、经济和社会后果,更有着深远的全球治理负面效应。就前者而言,人口年轻化问题导致了中东地区各国的失业特别是青年人失业问题突出,社会矛盾加剧,伊斯兰复兴运动再度高涨,以及由青年人口膨胀与网络技术结合而来的社会治理难度加大。其对全球治理的潜在负面影响主要体现为:它可能加剧既有的生态环境问题、移民问题、国际恐怖主义扩散和宗教与文明冲突加剧。对刚经历重大变局且正在努力恢复正常秩序的中东各国来说,人口问题将会成为决定该地区新秩序、实现国家现代化转型的关键因素之一。     

中东剧变与伊斯兰主义发展趋势初探——以埃及穆斯林兄弟会和突尼斯伊斯兰复兴党为例北大核心CSSCI

中东剧变及其民主政治发展,为伊斯兰主义组织发展提供了新的历史契机。伊斯兰主义的温和派,特别是埃及的穆斯林兄弟会和突尼斯伊斯兰复兴党,采取谨慎而行之有效的策略,稳健地参与和推动本国的民主政治发展。与此同时,它们的政治战略和指导原则也经历着深刻的重大变化。它们试图重新定位、超越原先的伊斯兰主义属性,向"非神权"的、与现代民主政治相容的"公民政党"转变。尽管还存在诸多限制因素,但在能够举行相对公正自由选举的条件下,由于在社会中下层拥有雄厚的群众基础,这些组织有可能在本国,乃至中东地区相继上台执政。伊斯兰复兴党已经在制宪议会选举中获胜,就是一个例证。     

Political violence in pre‐coup Turkey

Abstract

The long‐standing and pervasive patterns of political violence in Turkey, which were only abated by the military coup of September 1980, are examined in terms of their historical and sociopolitical antecedents. The paper concludes that political violence in Turkey is the result on the one hand of the specific forms of Kemalist modernization to which the country was subjected from 1920 to 1945. Kemalism led to modern political and legal institutions, but left much of Turkey's cultural and economic life subject to traditional values. In addition, Kemalism bequeathed a legacy of political parties that saw the national good identified solely with each political organization's success, which in turn subjectively legitimized violence against political opponents as acceptable in the struggle for the national welfare. After 1945 the legacy of Kemalism was joined by severe developmental problems in the area of economics and social welfare, a resurgence of hyper‐nationalism over the Cyprus issue, and an anti‐modernist backlash through a revival of Islamic traditions. The results were conflicts in a society already strained by the symptoms of second stage modernization that could not be compromised within the parameters of the Turkish political system.     

The Geopolitics of Water in the Middle East: fantasies and realities

Most expert and public discourse on Middle Eastern water politics holds that water scarcities are of great, if often under-recognised, geopolitical importance. Pessimists and optimists alike tend to assume that water has, or soon will have, profound geopolitical implications. In this paper I argue to the contrary. Specifically, I contend that water problems should neither be understood in naturalistic nor in liberal?–?technical terms, but instead as questions of political economy; that water is structurally insignificant within the political economy of the modern Middle East; that in consequence water is generally unimportant as a source of inter-state conflict and co-operation; and that, notwithstanding this, water supplies are a crucial site and cause of local conflicts in many parts of the region. I submit also that given the worsening state of economic development within the Middle East, these local conflict dynamics are likely to further deteriorate.     

Energy and Environmental Governance under Ecological Modernization: a Comparative Analysis of Nordic Countries

In this study of energy and environmental governance in four Nordic countries, we aim to shed further light on the question of organization of political governance under transition to ecological modernization. Our findings are that, in spite of a number of similarities, the Nordic countries seem to be pursuing programmes of ecological modernization under rather different regimes of political governance. However, we do not find the diversity of national energy-environmental governance regimes by reference to national policy-making styles. Instead, our analysis indicates that a more plausible explanation of the variety may lie in differences in their industrial and resource-based structure. Given diverse industrial structures, similar policy measures may have very different effects on national economies, and hence, motivate distinct governance measures. The paper concludes that a lock into a standardized ‘first-best’ mode of environmental governance may prove detrimental to environmental modernization in practice, since it might expose economies to unacceptable consequences and then to a fallback to traditional industrial strategies.     

Energy and Environmental Governance under Ecological Modernization: a Comparative Analysis of Nordic Countries

In this study of energy and environmental governance in four Nordic countries, we aim to shed further light on the question of organization of political governance under transition to ecological modernization. Our findings are that, in spite of a number of similarities, the Nordic countries seem to be pursuing programmes of ecological modernization under rather different regimes of political governance. However, we do not find the diversity of national energy-environmental governance regimes by reference to national policy-making styles. Instead, our analysis indicates that a more plausible explanation of the variety may lie in differences in their industrial and resource-based structure. Given diverse industrial structures, similar policy measures may have very different effects on national economies, and hence, motivate distinct governance measures. The paper concludes that a lock into a standardized 'first-best' mode of environmental governance may prove detrimental to environmental modernization in practice, since it might expose economies to unacceptable consequences and then to a fallback to traditional industrial strategies.     

Post-Arab Spring: changes and challenges

This paper advances the proposition that post-Arab Spring politics are a product of globalisation’s economic and social liberalisation. The global market and privatisation have fundamentally deconstructed centralised autocratic rule over state and society, while facilitating corruption and selective development, culminating in public outrage. The political order of the Middle East and North Africa since the Arab Spring synthesises globalisation’s dialectic duality, in which economic integration has contributed to the demise of national authoritarianism, inciting communalism and political fragmentation. This paper analyses emerging political trends and challenges based on a comparative analysis of Egypt and Tunisia.     

Political entrepreneurship and the Ko-P phenomenon in Taiwan’s democratization*

Taiwan’s economic modernization and political democratization after World War II have been praised as good examples for emerging countries. As of 2014, Taiwan has successfully gone through four direct presidential elections and two rounds of peaceful transfer of power. However, continuing sectarian quarrels between the ruling Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party cast doubt on the suitability of democracy for a Confucian society. This pessimism is challenged by the emergence of a new political star. A political novice, Ko Wen-je (aka Ko-P), won a landslide victory in the 2014 Taipei mayoral election, which is seen as a phenomenon. It has significant political implications and has so far inspired changes in the political landscape. The adoption of entrepreneurial strategies, such as identifying problems, leading by example, and team creation, are unprecedented in Taiwan’s political campaign. The Ko-P phenomenon demonstrates a self-correcting mechanism in Taiwan’s political system and bodes well for the future of new democracies, particularly for the Greater China Region.     

"We Live in a Country of UNHCR"—Refugee Protests and Global Political Society

Between September and December 2005 over 3,000 Sudanese refugees held a sit-in demonstration at the Mustapha Mahmoud Square in Cairo, Egypt, which is located directly across from the offices of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). We analyze the events of the refugee sit-in as an act of global political society, one that saw people outside the realm of the political making demands for recognition and a say in the solutions being developed to relieve their plight. We argue that the sit-in at Cairo was fundamentally a disagreement between the refugees and the UNHCR over the politics of protection, care, and mobility. The article analyzes the strategies through which the refugees named their "population of care" in ways that countered the UNHCR's governmental strategies to classify the Sudanese refugee population in Cairo. We propose the concept of "global political society" as a way of thinking about global political life from the perspective of those who are usually denied the status of political beings. Global political society is a highly ambiguous site where power relations are enacted, taken and retaken by various actors, but in ways that do not foreclose opportunities for refugees to actively reformulate the governmentalities of care and protection.     

Migratory labour in the Arab world

Some aspects of modern labor migration to the oil-producing countries of the Middle East are considered. Data on international labor migration among the countries of the region in 1980 are presented. The qualifications of the expatriate labor forces are then examined, and the stability and uncertainties of the labor market are discussed. The political implications of such migration for both host and sending countries are also considered.     

Neo-Islamism in the post-Arab Spring

The Arab Spring revealed the rise of Islamists and a wave of Islamic movements across the region. The Islamist agenda is debatable on issues regarding their commitment to democracy, pluralism and individual freedom. Central to this is understanding their evolving definition of Islamism and how the players view themselves. The article provides a brief background on which to describe and define the modern Islamist. The features of Islamist political parties are described. The article offers a definition of neo-Islamism that reflects its most modern trends, including these key characteristics: non-traditional religiosity, gradualism, Islam modernization, nationalism and pragmatic relations with the West.     

Draining the Swamp: Democracy Promotion,State Failure,and Terrorism in 19 Middle Eastern Countries

This study empirically evaluates the question of whether or not the promotion of democracy in the Middle East will reduce terrorism, both in terms of terrorist attacks sustained by Middle Eastern countries and in terms of attacks perpetrated by terrorist groups based in Middle Eastern countries. Using a series of pooled, time-series negative binomial statistical regression models on 19 countries from 1972 to 2003 the analysis demonstrates that the more politically liberal Middle Eastern states—measured both in terms of democratic processes and in terms of civil liberties protections—are actually more prone to terrorist activity than are Middle Eastern dictatorships. The study demonstrates, furthermore, that an even more significant predictor of Middle Eastern terrorist attacks is the intensity of state failures, or episodes of severe political instability that limit central government projection of domestic authority, suffered by states in the region. States that are unable to respond to fundamental challenges to political stability posed by internal political strife, ethnic conflict or the phenomenon of “stateless areas,” geographic or political spaces within states that eschew central government authority, are significantly more likely to host or sustain attacks from terrorist groups. The findings have implications for current United States antiterrorism policy toward the Middle East and provide a statistical/empirical foundation to previous studies on the relationship between terrorism and state failure.