Harvey Sicherman: An Appreciation

In this appreciative tribute, a vice chairman of FPRI's Board of Trustees assesses Harvey Sicherman's work in government and as President of a leading foreign policy think tank.     

Japanese Friend Recalled Her Participation in China's National Day Celebration

October 1 of this year marks the 60th anniversary ofthe founding of People’s Republic of China (PRC).On the eve of the national day,Beijing perked up for the national gala with colorful flowerbeds of various     

越南60周年国庆散记

2005年9月2日是越南社会主义共和国成立60周年。应越南友好组织联合会的邀请,我作为唯一的中国学者个人代表,赴河内出席了“与越南友谊、合作和团结”的国际会议,受到越共中央总书记农德孟的接见,并参与了越南国庆观礼活动。现将所见所闻所感,略述一二。     

“拉美学会暨拉美所建所40周年所庆学术讨论会”综述

〔本刊讯〕　 2 0 0 1年 6月 2 9日～ 7月 1日 ,在京郊昌平召开了“拉美学会暨拉美所建所 40周年所庆学术讨论会”。中共中央对外联络部、外交部、外经贸部和全国妇联国际部的官员 ,人民日报社、新华社、《求是》杂志社、《望》杂志社、世界知识出版社、中国银行国际金融研究所、中国现代国际关系研究所、北京大学等单位及中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所和拉美所的新闻工作者和专家学者 ,共 6 0多人参加了会议。会议分“专题报告”和“大会发言”两部分。在“专题报告”部分 ,外交部拉美司的领导介绍了江泽民主席于 2 0 0 1年 4月 6…     

中国—东盟合作的前景

引文本人依据近些年东亚尤其是中国和东盟的关系的发展而对接下来20年的走向可能造成的影响作一些预测.一些最值得关注的趋势回顾今日东亚,最为引人注目的也可能是将对此区域造成巨大影响的第一个趋势是人口的老龄化.它将迅速发展并影响着未来的20年.我们所面临的人口老化趋势不只局限在亚洲东北部的日本等一些国家,东南亚国家也正朝着人口老龄化的趋势发展.人口老龄化所带来的长期后果是,一方面要扭转人口老龄的趋势相对较难;另一方面一旦人口出生率低于自然死亡率,人口的年龄便逐渐老化,最终导致人口数量减少.     

Aid: A mixed blessing

Despite a growing emphasis by aid agencies on local participation and consultation, the recipients of aid commonly have mixed, if not hostile, responses to relief assistance. Agencies need to acknowledge the inequalities that are inherent in an aid relationship, and be more judicious in determining their proper role. The author calls for aid providers and recipients to accept our innate human equality and our circumstantial inequality in order to establish relationships of mutual respect and contemporaneous enjoyment of each other.     

Iraq: A Look Back

Although the diversity of the Iraqi people has in the past hindered any sense of national identity, their suffering before and since the 2003 war has given most Iraqis a common desire to live normal lives. This desire can be a valuable asset for transformation. But the many displaced Iraqis, political prisoners, and families of executed and disappeared persons need healing, which will require considerable time. The prospects for postwar rehabilitation look poor now, with many observers claiming that civil war has already begun. Moreover, until the rule of law can be established, the country will be condemned to another generation of suffering, which will not be confined to Iraq. The current situation might have been averted, but it was not, and now Iraqis and Americans are intimately and problematically linked.     

Spirituality: A development taboo

Spirituality is central to many of the daily decisions people in the 'South' make about their own and their community's development, including that of whether or not to participate in risky but potentially beneficial social action. Despite its importance, development literature and development practices have systematically avoided the topic of spirituality. This avoidance results in inferior research and less effective programmes, and ultimately fails to provide participants with opportunities to reflect on how their development and their spirituality will and should shape each other. The author offers some possible explanations for this and suggests ways in which to address spirituality in development theory and practice.     

Eugene: A conceptual manual

The study of international relations using quantitative analysis relies, in part, on the availability of comprehensive and easily manipulable data sets. To execute large‐n statistical tests of hypotheses, data must be available on the variables of interest, and those data must be manipulated into a suitable format to allow the inclusion of appropriate control variables as well as variables of central theoretical interest This paper introduces software designed to eliminate many of the difficulties commonly involved in constructing large international relations data sets, and with the unavailability of data on expected utility theories of war.

In order to solve these two problems, we developed EUGene (the Expected Utility Generation and Data Management Program). EUGene is a stand‐alone Microsoft Windows based program for the construction of annual data sets for use in quantitative studies of international relations. It generates data for variables necessary to incorporate key variables from implementations of the so‐called “expected utility theory of war” into broader analyses of international conflict EUGene is also designed to make building international relations data sets simple. It accomplishes this by automating a variety of tasks necessary to integrate several data building blocks commonly used in tests of international relations theories.     

Tim Cook: A Remembrance

Sparse literature exists on the topic of intimacy appeals in political advertising, so in this study Horton and Wohl's para-social theory was applied to explain the “relationship” in Israel between television performers (politicians) and spectators (voters) through the intimacy concept. Altogether, 442 political ads from two Israeli election campaigns (1996 and 1999) were analyzed to test three hypotheses on the use of intimacy appeals across campaigns and political parties. The intimacy appeal measure consisted of five intimacy techniques and was thus characterized as a macro-level variable. These techniques appear in the codebook as five questions that examine whether the spots present words of intimacy, intimate situations, families of politicians, nonverbal expressions, and children. The results indicate that intimacy appeals in political spots are quite popular. Religious and left-leaning parties tended to use intimacy appeals significantly more than nonreligious and right-leaning parties. We conclude that politicians indeed use the same intimacy strategies and techniques as other television performers do; therefore, para-social theory accords with the concept of intimacy in political advertising as much as in other communication settings.     

中俄战略协作伙伴关系:十年实践的历史考察

本文主要从以下4个阶段对中俄战略协作的历史进程进行了初步考察:战略协作确立及其框架的初步形成(1996年4月~1999年3月)、重点联合抵制美国单边主义政策(1999年3月~2001年9月)、中俄战略协作在深度磨砺中发展(2001年9月~2004年10月)和中俄战略协作走出磨合,进入稳定而务实的发展时期(2004年10月至今)。     

Nuclear Abolition: A Dangerous Illusion

A rising and influential tide of opinion is pressing for the United States to take major steps towards actually realizing “a world without nuclear weapons,” including by taking steps towards dismantling its nuclear arsenal. This article argues that a world without nuclear weapons, and particularly American nuclear weapons, is not desirable nor is real and effective nuclear disarmament possible. Therefore, while non-proliferation is an important objective, the United States should not abandon or move substantially towards the abandonment of its arsenal in pursuit of nuclear abolition. Instead, the United States should seek the worthy goal of preventing and retarding the spread of nuclear weapons while maintaining a strong nuclear deterrent, a policy that can be followed by de-linking non-proliferation from disarmament.