A Strategy for the ISIS Foreign Fighter Threat

American efforts against the ISIS foreign fighter threat largely have failed because they underestimate the malignance of ISIS recruits. This article proposes a modified strategy comprising three aspects: 1) a counter-narrative stressing ISIS's attacks on Sunni Muslims, questioning their religious credentials, and accurately describing conditions in ISIS-controlled territory; 2) a comprehensive effort to disrupt ISIS recruitment on social media; and 3) countering foreign fighter mobility through a comprehensive international effort to identify foreign fighters, suspending their passports, and revoking their citizenship. Unfortunately, even these efforts will only be a partial fix for the vastly larger problems of jihadism and radical Islam.     

日本欲派兵索马里的动机与障碍

由于索马里海域海盗活动日益猖獗,联合国安理会于2008年12月通过第1851号决议,授权有关国家和国际组织向索马里海域派遣军队打击海盗. 2008年12月26日,中国派遣舰队远征亚丁湾、索马里海域,在联合国授权下担负运输船只的护航任务.     

The Cyber Threat to Nuclear Stability

The thesis of this article is that cyber war technologies are spilling over into precision strike and nuclear mission areas. The result will transform deterrence and arms race stability and lead to other significant changes. The driver behind this is a combination of long standing problems with mobile missiles along with new technologies not usually factored into strategic assessments: big data analytics, computer vision, and related information systems. When combined with drones and precision strike, the hunt for mobile missiles is becoming faster, cheaper, and better. The implications of this finding vary by country, but will shape major power nuclear modernization, crisis stability among secondary powers, and conventional attack of nuclear deterrents.     

索马里海盗问题探析

海盗与海洋恐怖主义是当今世界重大的非传统安全问题,对国际海洋和能源安全构成了巨大的威胁和挑战.索马里海盗活动越来越猖獗,威胁与影响日增,引起了国际社会的高度关注和联合军事打击.然而,由于索马里国内局势混乱,民不聊生,以及军事打击的效果不佳,要解决索马里海盗问题,还需有新的思路与对策.     

毒品对中国国家安全的威胁

毒品已成为危及人类生存和发展的全球性灾难。作为当今世界最严重的公害之一,毒品泛滥越来越引起国际社会的关注。目前,中国正处在周边地区的几个毒品源地包围之中,境外毒品纷纷通过各种渠道流向中国,严重威胁着中国的国家安全。周边地区的主要毒源地毒源地的存在一般须具备几个条件:一是具备适宜毒品生长的气候;二是具有交通闭塞的环境;三是毒品种植区一般都是土地比较贫瘠、百姓生活水平比较低下的地带,而且大多是几个国家的交界处,也就是人们通常所说的“三不管地带”。目前,世界上有四大“毒窟”,分别是位于东南亚老挝、泰国、缅甸3国接…     

索马里冲突的根源与解决途径探析

1991年以来,索马里一直处于部族纷争、军阀混战的无政府状态。经过15年的演变,索马里局势目前发展到了过渡政府和伊斯兰法院联盟对峙的阶段。族群分裂是导致索马里冲突久拖不决的内因;国际危机管理失效、大国干预失当,以及邻国干涉等因素是外因。解决索马里冲突是一项需要多边参与的系统工程。索马里和平进程的关键是从国内入手,通过培育超部族政治力量,实现民族和解。同时,适当的国际治理措施亦有助于解决冲突。     

Deterrents to immunisation in Somalia: A survey of mothers' attitudes

As part of the global drive to achieve Universal Child Immunisation by 1990 (UCI 90), Somalia launched a national immunisation programme for women and children. While access to it improved, actual demand for immunisation remained low. This article reports the findings of a study to identify the factors influencing acceptance of immunisation in two Somali communities. A retrospective, qualitative approach was adopted to assess individual and community experience both with immunisation and with the immunisation programme. Data were derived from focus group discussions, informal interviews and observation. The research findings provided programme managers and health workers with information for redesigning both the overall approach of the immunisation programme, and the content and style of health messages.     

Benign Neglect: America's Threat to the Anglo-American Alliance

The United States can ill afford to lose the loyalty of proven allies. Yet it risks currently weakening one of its most important and enduring friendships. British popular support for America has been shaken and elite commitment to the special relationship faces a potentially formidable array of contrary strategic and partisan arguments. Some of these are overstated but there is a further danger that is little mentioned but just as corrosive—American benign neglect. If in the pursuit of new allies and objectives America is not to squander extant assets, then it must do more to nurture the reflexive British Atlanticism that has helped sustain Anglo-American relations through their numerous crises.     

Threat and alignment behavior

Alliance formation and termination are examined in the context of the impact of international threats on efforts to enhance national security. Threats against allies are shown to provide diagnostic information about the prospects that a state will be threatened. This diagnostic information is shown to lead to more sucessful national security‐enhancing actions than do threats against the state itself. The theoretical foundation on which the analysis is based is an expected utility approach to conflict decision making. The empirical domain is the European system from 1816 to 1965.     

恐怖主义对俄罗斯的现实威胁及俄政府的对策

在俄罗斯,恐怖主义事件时有发生,其中有很大一部分为车臣恐怖分子所为。这些恐怖活动给俄罗斯人民的身心、俄罗斯正常的社会秩序及俄罗斯的国家安全都造成了巨大威胁。针对这些恐怖活动,俄罗斯政府采取各种举措予以应对。     

"中国威胁美国后院论"辨析

近年来,随着中国与拉美关系的快速升温,尤其是中国在拉美影响力的扩大,美国国内出现了"中国威胁美国后院"的论调.这种论调是美国新一波"中国威胁论"的延伸与升级,它反映了美国对中国崛起的深层担心.本文在梳理该论调出笼基本脉络的基础上,从美拉关系、中拉关系的嬗变来探讨"中国威胁美国后院论"产生的客观背景,分析中拉关系的本质及其对美拉关系的影响,提出几点发展未来中美拉三边关系的政策思考.     

Vicious circles and the security development nexus in Somalia

The metaphor of the vicious circle is deeply embedded in analysis of protracted conflicts. Yet in at least some instances conflicts that appear to be self‐reinforcing in the short term are in the longer run producing conditions out of which new political orders can emerge. These protracted conflicts are thus dynamic, not static, crises and require post‐conflict assistance strategies that are informed by accurate trend analysis. The case of Somalia is used to illustrate the dramatic changes that occur over time in patterns of armed conflict, criminality, and governance in a collapsed state. These changes have produced a dense network of informal and formal systems of communication, cooperation, and governance in Somalia, helping local communities adapt to state collapse, manage risk, and provide for themselves a somewhat more predictable environment in which to pursue livelihoods. Crucial to this evolution of anarchy in Somalia has been the shifting interests of an emerging business community, for whom street crime and armed conflict are generally bad for business.     

先发制人战略与埃塞俄比亚在索马里的军事行动

本文以2006年12月至2007年1月埃塞俄比亚在索马里的军事行动为个案,考察了先发制人战略运作过程中的5个促进因素(外部威胁、国内支持、盟友支持、国际舆论支持和进攻性力量)和5个制约因素(道德约束力、国际法约束力、国家机制约束力、敌方反击能力和建制成本)。研究表明,埃塞政府敢于先发制人,主要是因为促进因素占上风,其中美国的默许和国际社会对索马里过渡政府的承认大大减少了埃塞政府先发制人的风险和成本。埃塞政府采取的先发制人战略也显示,此次军事冲突,其背后是以美国为代表的西方政治意识形态同以伊斯兰原教旨主义为代表的阿拉伯-伊斯兰激进政治意识形态的对抗。     

The EU in Somalia: Furthering Peacemaking and Reconciliation

Since the Transitional Federal Institutions were established after the 2002 Nairobi Conference, the situation in Somalia has seen two drastic about-turns – in opposite directions. In June 2006, starting out from Mogadishu, the Islamic Courts rapidly extended their control over most of south-central Somalia. Now, after the Ethiopean military intervention, the Transitional Government is trying to establish itself in the capital and to effectively exercise its formal authority for the first time. But the military defeat of the Courts has not solved the problems that initially made their success possible. Only reconciliation can create real stability and the European Union can contribute to achieving this. A peaceful and stable Horn of Africa is in the EU's interest, given the risks of it becoming a breeding ground for Al Qaeda-like organisations and a source of immigration. Somalia could also become a test case for solving the problems of a failed state by peaceful means, and an example of the EU's willingness and ability to have an effective dialogue with the Islamic world. Success in Somalia would strengthen the EU as a regional player with Arab and Muslim countries.     

索马里局势演变分析

9·11事件爆发后，美国在全球打击恐怖主义。索马里是否会成为继阿富汗之后荚国的下一个打击目标成为世人关注的焦点，同时这也使本已处于无政府状态的索马里局势变得更加扑朔迷离。本文结合这两方面的问题对索马里的和平进程前景进行分析。     

Mapping Today's Jihadi Landscape and Threat

This article examines the current state of the global jihad movement and offers reflections on its likely trajectory in the foreseeable future. It concludes that while the global jihad temporarily has been set back by the relative decline of the Islamic State, the movement overall benefits from al-Qaeda's regeneration; its ongoing ideological appeal; and its structural decentralization. In the next years, the movement likely will continue to evolve from its current bipolar structure toward an increasingly multipolar entity. Furthermore, it argues that the future jihadi movement will contain a large number of jihadi actors whose relationships will span cooperative, competitive, or mixed engagements, with implications for the movement as a whole. The article highlights several challenges for counterterrorism, including dealing with a complex movement structure; radicalization; socio-political disenfranchisement; the counter-response of societies targeted by jihadist violence; and technological changes. The article concludes with an assessment that in the next two to five years, the global jihad will remain a potent, although not an existential, threat.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

Disarming Somalia: lessons in stabilisation from a collapsed state

International efforts to resolve the Somali crisis have foundered on one central paradox: the restoration of state institutions is both an apparent solution to the conflict and its most important underlying cause. Somalis tend to approach disarmament and demobilisation—two central pillars of the ‘state-building’ process—with the fundamental question: who is disarming whom? If the answer threatens to entrench unbalanced and unstable power relations, then it may also exacerbate and prolong the conflict. In this paper, the authors examine disarmament and demobilisation initiatives from southern Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland. In southern Somalia, externally-driven disarmament and demobilisation initiatives in support of successive interim ‘governments’ have been widely viewed with suspicion and alarm. In Somaliland and Puntland, Somali-led, locally owned efforts have achieved a degree of success that can be instructive elsewhere. The authors conclude that conventional international approaches to ‘state-building’ in Somalia must be reassessed—notably that security sector issues must be treated not as a purely ‘technical’ issue, but as an integral part of the political process.     

“中国威胁论”的虚妄和悖谬

近年来,随着中国经济的快速发展,国际上各种正反面的评说也纷至沓来.由于中国政府不懈地宣示与践行和平外交路线,国际社会对中国的快速发展基本能持一种平和与理解态度,对中国的内外政策作出较为客观的评价.但另一方面,"中国威胁论"的刺耳鼓噪也时有所闻,什么中国"军事威胁论"、"经济威胁论"、"能源威胁论"、"文化威胁论"、"技术威胁论"等等,不一而足.在各色各样的表演中,美国的一些鹰派人物和日本的右翼势力及其媒体无疑是充当了吹鼓手的角色,很有一股子"谎言重复千次就成真理"的韧劲.究竟是谁在让世界感到不安,是谁在让别人感到威胁,还得让事实来说话.     

试论"中国威胁论"

50年来,中国与非洲都发生了巨变,非洲国家对中国的看法也在发生变化,在中非关系主流方面看好的同时,在非洲也出现了对中非关系不和谐的看法和论调,甚至出现了非洲版的所谓"中国威胁论".毫无疑问,它们源于西方,其表现也涵盖了西方的说辞.至于其成因,首先在于西方的恶意离间,其次在于中国"三高依赖"问题的存在,以及中国在非洲人员的失当行为使然,而中国的和平发展对不发达国家的影响,以及非洲国家对中国的模糊认识也是重要原因.虽然所谓的"中国威胁论"会随着中非关系的继续巩固而消逝,但采取积极措施,予以必要的有力回应,则更有利于消除所谓的"中国威胁论".