THE LAW OF CRIME CONCENTRATION AND THE CRIMINOLOGY OF PLACE*

According to Laub (2004), criminology has a developmental life course with specific turning points that allow for innovations in how we understand and respond to crime. I argue that criminology should take another turn in direction, focusing on microgeographic hot spots. By examining articles published in Criminology, I show that only marginal attention has been paid to this area of study to date—often termed the criminology of place. I illustrate the potential utility of a turning point by examining the law of crime concentration at place, which states that for a defined measure of crime at a specific microgeographic unit, the concentration of crime will fall within a narrow bandwidth of percentages for a defined cumulative proportion of crime. By providing the first cross‐city comparison of crime concentration using a common geographic unit, the same crime type, and examining a general crime measure, I find strong support for a law of crime concentration. I also show that crime concentration stays within a narrow bandwidth across time, despite strong volatility in crime incidents. By drawing from these findings, I identify several key research questions for future study. In conclusion, I argue that a focus on the criminology of place provides significant opportunity for young scholars and has great promise for advancing criminology as a science.     

FOUNDATION FOR A GENERAL STRAIN THEORY OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY*

This paper presents a general strain theory of crime and delinquency that is capable of overcoming the criticisms of previous strain theories. In the first section, strain theory is distinguished from social control and differential association/social learning theory. In the second section, the three major types of strain are described: (1) strain as the actual or anticipated failure to achieve positively valued goals, (2) strain as the actual or anticipated removal of positively valued stimuli, and (3) strain as the actual or anticipated presentation of negatively valued stimuli. In the third section, guidelines for the measurement of strain are presented. And in the fourth section, the major adaptations to strain are described, and those factors influencing the choice of delinquent versus nondelinquent adaptations are discussed.     

THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF SELF-CONTROL: TESTING THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME*

Gottfredson and Hirschi's recently introduced general theory of crime has received considerable empirical support. Researchers have found that low self-control, the general theory's core concept, is related to lawbreaking and to deviant behaviors considered by Gottfredson and Hirschi to be “analogous” to crime. In this article, we extend this research by assessing the effects of low self-control on crime and analogous behaviors and by using two distinct measures of self-control, an attitudinal measure and the analogous/behavior scale. Thus, following Gottfredson and Hirschi, we use analogous imprudent behaviors as outcomes of low self-control and as indicators of low self-control's effects on crime. We also examine an important but thus far neglected part of the theory: the claim that low self-control has effects not only on crime but also on life chances, life quality, and other social consequences. Consistent with the general theory, we found that both measures of self-control, attitudinal and behavioral, have effects on crime, even when controlling for a range of social factors. Further, the analysis revealed general support for the theory's prediction of negative relationships between low self-control and social consequences other than crime—life outcomes and quality of life.     

GENERAL THEORY OF SPATIAL CRIME PATTERNS*

I propose a general theory for examining the spatial distribution of crime by specifically addressing and estimating the spatial distribution of the residences of offenders, targets, guardians, and their respective expected movement patterns across space and time. The model combines information on the locations of persons, typical spatial movement patterns, and situational characteristics of locations to create estimates of crime potential at various locations at various points in time and makes four key contributions. First, the equations make the ideas involved in the theory explicit, and they highlight points at which our current state of empirical evidence is lacking. Second, by creating measures of spatial “potentials” of offenders, targets, and guardians, this theory provides a precise grounding for operationalizing spatial effects in studies of place and crime. Third, the equations provide an explicit consideration of offenders and where they might travel and, therefore, incorporates offenders into crime‐and‐place research. Fourth, these equations suggest ways that researchers could use simulations to predict stable patterns, as well as changes, in the levels of crime at both micro and macro scales. Finally, I provide an empirical demonstration of the added explanatory power provided by the theory to a study of place and crime.     

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF WHITE-COLLAR CRIME FOR A GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME

Advocates of the concept of white-collar crime have failed to make the case for its scientific value. Steffensmeier's efforts to save the concept further support our view that it is flawed and misleading. His efforts support our contention that the correlates of white-collar crime are the same as the correlates of crime, that the age distribution of offending is the same for white-collar crimes as for other crimes, that official statistics have sufficient validity for many etiological purposes, and that the search for a general theory of crime holds great promise for criminology.     

SELF-CONTROL AND INTIMATE VIOLENCE: AN EXAMINATION OF THE SCOPE AND SPECIFICATION OF THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME*

Ambiguities in Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime have generated doubts about the explanatory scope of the theory and inconsistencies in the specification of models attempting to test it. In particular, the theory has been criticized for its inability to explain intimate violence; however, an empirical test of this criticism cannot be conducted appropriately unless the theoretical model has been adequately specified. This study tests four models of self-control theory for their ability to explain one form of intimate violence: courtship aggression. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the ability of measures of low self-control, opportunity, and perceptions of reward to predict the probability of courtship violence in a sample of 985 students currently involved in a dating relationship. The results indicate that while the main effects of low self-control, opportunity, and perception of immediate gratification are significant predictors of the probability of using violence in a dating relationship, it is less clear whether the functional form of the theoretical model accommodates the interaction between low self-control and either opportunity or perceived rewards.     

HOT SPOTS OF PREDATORY CRIME: ROUTINE ACTIVITIES AND THE CRIMINOLOGY OF PLACE*

A leading sociological theory of crime is the “routine activities” approach (Cohen and Felson, 1979). The premise of this ecological theory is that criminal events result from likely offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians against crime converging nonrandomly in time and space. Yet prior research has been unable to employ spatial data, relying instead on individual- and household-level data, to test that basic premise. This analysis supports the premise with spatial data on 323,979 calls to police over all 115,000 addresses and intersections in Minneapolis over 1 year. Relatively few “hot spots” produce most calls to Police (50% of calls in 3% of places) and calls reporting predatory crimes (all robberies at 2.2% of places, all rapes at 1.2% of places, and all auto thefts at 2.7% of places), because crime is both rare (only 3.6% of the city could have had a robbery with no repeat addresses) and concentrated, although the magnitude of concentration varies by offense type. These distributions all deviate significantly, and with ample magnitude, from the simple Poisson model of chance, which raises basic questions about the criminogenic nature of places, as distinct from neighborhoods or collectivities.     

THE EMPIRICAL STATUS OF GOTTFREDSON AND HIRSCHI'S GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME: A META-ANALYSIS

To determine the empirical status of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) "general theory of crime," we conducted a meta-analysis on existing empirical studies. The results indicate that, regardless of measurement differences, low self-control is an important predictor of crime and of "analogous behaviors." Also, low self-control has general effects across different types of samples. Contrary to Gottfredson and Hirschi's position, however, the effect of low self-control is weaker in longitudinal studies, and variables from social learning theory still receive support in studies that include a measure of low self-control. Finally, we argue that meta-analysis is an underutilized tool in discerning the relative empirical merits of criminological theories.     

GENERAL STRAIN,STREET YOUTH AND CRIME: A TEST OF AGNEW'S REVISED THEORY*

Using a sample of homeless street youth, this research examines how specific forms of strain–emotional abuse, physical abuse, sexual abuse, homelessness and being a victim of robbery, violence or theft, relative deprivation, monetary dissatisfaction and unemployment–lead to crime and drug use. It also explores how strain is conditioned by deviant peers, deviant attitudes, external attributions, self‐esteem and self‐efficacy. The results reveal that all ten types of strain examined can lead to criminal behavior either as main effects or when interacting with conditioning variables. The results are discussed in light of general strain theory and suggestions are offered for future research on this topic.     

A THEORY OF CRIME RESISTANCE AND SUSCEPTIBILITY*

The “causes of crime” research has up to this point focused on those events and conditions that push or pressure individuals into crime (strains), that pull or attract individuals to crime (social learning for crime), and that restrain individuals from responding to pressures and attractions with crime (controls). Work in several areas, however, has suggested that the response to the pressures for and attractions to crime is not simply a function of controls. It is also a function of the individual's resistance or susceptibility to the events and conditions described by strain and social learning theories. Those high in resistance are less likely to experience these criminogenic events and conditions as pressures for or attractions to crime, whereas those high in susceptibility are more likely. Resistance and susceptibility are a function of factors that influence the perception and interpretation of criminogenic events and conditions, the emotional reaction to them, and the behavioral inclinations prompted by them. These factors include negativity, pleasure and sensation seeking, conventional efficacy and perceived social support, and general sensitivity to the environment. With certain notable exceptions, these factors have been neglected in mainstream crime research, but they have the potential to improve the explanation and prediction of crime substantially.     

CONSTITUTIVE CRIMINOLOGY: THE MATURATION OF CRITICAL THEORY*

This paper synthesizes recent trends in the development of critical criminology into a new theoretical direction in thinking about crime. It rejects approaches to criminological theory that reduce crime to an outcome of micro causes or macro contexts. It suggests instead that thinking about crime should be reconsidered as the coterminous discursive production by human agents of an ideology of crime that sustains it as a concrete reality. It argues that this coproduction occurs when agents act out criminal patterns, when others seek to control criminal behavior, and when yet others attempt to research, philosophize about, and explain crime. The paper argues that reducing crime will only come about with a reduction of investment by human agents in the ideology of crime production. Such a reflexive re-conceptualization requires the development of a replacement discourse, rather than an oppositional one, a peacemaking discourse rather than a conflicting one. We call this new theoretical direction constitutive criminology.     

A LONGITUDINAL TEST OF THE EFFECTS OF PARENTING AND THE STABILITY OF SELF‐CONTROL: NEGATIVE EVIDENCE FOR THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME*

This study investigates two core propositions of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) general theory of crime. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 750 African American children and their primary caregivers, we first examine whether self‐control fully mediates the effect of parenting on delinquency. Consistent with the general theory, we find that low self‐control is positively associated with involvement in delinquency. Counter to Gottfredson and Hirschi's proposition, we find that self‐control only partially attenuates the negative effect of parental efficacy on delinquency. Next, we assess the theory's hypothesis that between‐individual levels of self‐control are stable. Finding substantial instability in self‐control across the two waves, we explore whether social factors can explicate these changes in self‐control. The four social relationships we incorporate (improvements in parenting, attachment to teachers, association with pro‐social peers, and association with deviant peers) explain a substantial portion of the changes in self‐control. We then discuss the implications of these findings for the general theory of crime.     

THE CONTEXT OF MARRIAGE AND CRIME: GENDER,THE PROPENSITY TO MARRY,AND OFFENDING IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Marriage is central to theoretical debates over stability and change in criminal offending over the life course. Yet, unlike other social ties such as employment, marriage is distinct in that it cannot be randomly assigned in survey research to more definitively assess causal effects of marriage on offending. As a result, key questions remain as to whether different individual propensities toward marriage shape its salience as a deterrent institution. Building on these issues, the current research has three objectives. First, we use a propensity score matching approach to estimate causal effects of marriage on crime in early adulthood. Second, we assess sex differences in the effects of marriage on offending. Although both marriage and offending are highly gendered phenomena, prior work typically focuses on males. Third, we examine whether one's propensity to marry conditions the deterrent capacity of marriage. Results show that marriage suppresses offending for males, even when accounting for their likelihood to marry. Furthermore, males who are least likely to marry seem to benefit most from this institution. The influence of marriage on crime is less robust for females, where marriage reduces crime only for those with moderate propensities to marry. We discuss these findings in the context of recent debates concerning gender, criminal offending, and the life course.     

THE ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF OFFENDING*

This paper assesses the need for and focus of developmental theories of crime by analyzing three questions: (1) whether age of onset of criminal behavior has a causal impact on subsequent behavior, (2) whether the determinants of onset vary, at least in part, with age, and (3) whether the determinants of onset and continuation of offending differ in some respects. The inverse association between age of onset and persistence of offending is found to be entirely attributable to time-stable individual differences and, thus, is not attributable to a causal linkage. However, evidence is found of the covariates of onset changing with age and differences in the covariates of onset and of the continuation of offending.     

EXPLAINING AND PREVENTING CRIME: THE GLOBALIZATION OF KNOWLEDGE—THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY 1999 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS*

During the 1990s, there has been an enormous increase in influence in criminology of the risk factor prevention paradigm. This aims to identify the key risk factors for offending (in longitudinal studies) and implement prevention methods designed to counteract them (in experiments). In addition, protective factors are identified and enhanced. This paradigm has fostered linkages between explanation and prevention, between fundamental and applied research, and between scholars, practitioners, and policy makers. It has encouraged the globalization of knowledge, cross‐national comparative studies, and the application of similar strategies for research and action in several different countries. The main challenges for the paradigm are to determine which risk factors are causes, to establish what are protective factors, to identify the active ingredients of multiple component interventions, to evaluate the effectiveness of area‐based intervention programs, and to assess the monetary costs and benefits of interventions. The paradigm can be improved using longitudinal and experimental studies, which aim to retain its advantages while overcoming its problems. Ideally, an international network of researchers should collaborate in investigating and explaining results in different countries.     

LOW SELF-CONTROL AND OPPORTUNITY: TESTING THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME AS AN EXPLANATION FOR GENDER DIFFERENCES IN DELINQUENCY*

This research tests Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime as an explanation for gender differences in the delinquency of approximately 2,000 Canadian secondary school students. Separate psychological factors, including a preference for risk seeking, impulsivity, temper, present oriented, and carelessness, are used as measures of self-control, and additional measures of the construct are taken from the frequency of self-reported smoking and drinking. Elements of delinquent opportunity are controlled for by including measures of parental/adult super-vision. These measures and their interactions are used to predict self-reported general delinquency, property offenses, violence, and drug offenses. Results provide partial support for the general theory, revealing relationships between measures of self-control and delinquency that vary by magnitude across genders and for different offense types. Implications for the generality of the theory are discussed.     

PERSONAL CAPITAL AND SOCIAL CONTROL: THE DETERRENCE IMPLICATIONS OF A THEORY OF INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN CRIMINAL OFFENDING*

A large and growing literature links stable individual differences established early in life to deviant behavior through the life course. This literature challenges basic premises of modern sociological and economic theories of deviance that emphasize explanatory factors that are more proximate in time and external to the individual. In this paper we present and test a theory designed to link rational choice and social control theories with two leading examples of theories that emphasize stable individual differences (Wilson and Herrnstein, 1985; Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990). Based on appeals to the economic theory of investment, we argue that individuals who are more present oriented and self-centered invest less in social bonds and therefore are less deterred from committing crime by the possibility of damage to such bonds. Thus, our theory, which builds from key constructs of the Gottfredson-Hir-schi and Wilson-Herrnstein theories, departs from those theories with the contention that social control does matter.