印度低碳经济对策及对中国的启示

气候变化已不仅仅是政治经济问题,同时也关乎人类的发展,《京都议定书》创设了包括碳汇在内各种产品和服务的全新市场,但目前收效甚微,作为发展中国家的印度在全球“清洁发展机制”（CDM）市场发挥着重要的作用。分析印度的碳减排适应性措施,将对中国应对气候变化提供最直接的借鉴素材。     

Elite Domination of Public Doubts About Climate Change (Not Evolution)

This article examines the sources of ideological skepticism about two issues where there is a scientific consensus: climate change and evolution. The results indicate that self-identified conservatives doubt global warming in large part because of elite rhetoric, but that evolution beliefs are unrelated to reception of political discourse. News reception is perhaps the strongest predictor of conservatives’ climate change skepticism, but has no influence on their aversion to evolution. Moreover, the article leverages three sources of variation in elite discourse on climate change—temporal, cross-national, and experimental—to show that changes in the prevalence of ideological cues strongly affect public opinion about global warming. Politically attentive conservatives, in fact, were more likely to believe scientists about global warming than liberals were in the 1990s before the media depicted climate change as a partisan issue. The United States is also the only nation where political interest significantly predicts both conservatives’ skepticism about, and liberals’ belief in, climate change. Finally, evidence from a national survey experiment suggests that Americans would be less skeptical of manmade global warming if more Republicans in Congress believed in it, but a growing Congressional consensus about evolution would not diminish doubts about its existence.     

中俄贸易的软环境分析

近10年来,中俄贸易既取得了可喜的成绩,也存在着一些问题。本文对中俄贸易中的政策法规、出入境管理、贸易结算条件、经商安全状况等软环境方面的问题进行了分析。     

中国与俄罗斯对外贸易与双边贸易发展比较分析

中国与俄罗斯在经济转型过程中,随着两国对外开放程度的不断提高,对外贸易与双边贸易都有不同程度的发展,但表现出较大的差异性;俄罗斯进出口贸易发展相对较为平稳,表现出激进式转型中的稳定性对外开放特征;虽然中国已经是俄罗斯商品的重要出口市场,但俄罗斯商品在中国市场上仍然面临着不确定性和其他国家的竞争,中俄双边贸易对俄罗斯的重要性明显高于对中国的重要性。     

尼泊尔投资环境及中尼经贸现状分析

尼泊尔是我国的友好邻邦,经济发展较为落后,同时也正因为如此,尼泊尔对我国希望进军南亚的企业来说是个巨大市场。中尼之间经济具有较大的互补性,双边经贸合作存在较大的发展空间。本文主要介绍尼泊尔的贸易管理制度和投资管理制度以及中尼经贸合作的现状和影响双边经贸合作的因素等,供有关部门和企业参考。     

Reflections on Global Climate Politics Post Paris: Power,Interests and Polycentricity

The Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in December 2015 has the potential to shape future climate politics and governance significantly, with broader implications for world politics at large. First of all, it solidifies the importance of ‘low-emission capacity’ as a source of power in international climate politics. Second, it supports the ongoing societal mobilisation and reinforces interest in the new climate economy. Third, it points, as a result, toward a more multipolar future climate world order. Finally, the Agreement recalibrates the role of the multilateral UN process as providing overall direction towards global decarbonisation, while leaving implementation to states, other international organisations and various non-state actors and initiatives. Therefore, phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions within the next few decades requires subnational and national policy frameworks that facilitate and promote overachievement and hence drive an upward dynamic – making the Paris Agreement a real-world experiment with an uncertain outcome.     

Conflicts of decision-making processes between Clean Development Mechanism and project financing

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects are believed to be financially unviable without additional revenues from CDM in the form of saleable certified emission credits; this is an important premise to be verified in the CDM approval process. However, in financing a CDM project, it is crucial for financiers and investors to ensure that the project is viable without CDM revenues. Thus, there are clear conflicts in the processes and priorities between the CDM approval in theory, and financing and investment decisions in practice. Considering the post-CDM frameworks, this article uses a case study of Bhutan’s Dagachhu hydropower project, the world’s first cross-border CDM project, to suggest practical lessons learnt.     

Climate finance in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)

Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries lack sufficient funds to combat climate change. The growth of projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM) is not consistent in the region and the relation of that growth to national GDP is not equivalent either. The disbursement of climate funds promised by different countries and donor organisations to different countries in GMS region is very low. A few countries have relied more on external funds to combat climate change, while some have developed their own funds. A strong database and involvement of civil societies might help the region better utilise these climate funds.     

日韩两国建立碳足迹标签制度的共同经验及启示

建立碳足迹标签制度是减少碳排放、规避低碳贸易壁垒、提升我国全球价值链分工地位以及履行大国责任的有效途径。日韩两国在建立碳足迹标签制度的过程中具有很多共同之处,如完善碳足迹认证体系、出台指导路线、设计恰当的碳足迹标签等。中国由于起步较晚,可以借鉴日韩两国的共同经验。此外,将进口产品纳入碳足迹标签认证体系以及订立中日韩低碳贸易协定将有利于减少全球碳排放并促进区域内贸易发展。     

From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, a diverse set of policy communities, including those with defence, development and environmental mandates, frame climate change as a security threat. Most often this discursive formation labels climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This framing, however, is vague, linear and leaves many questions unanswered regarding how institutions can develop and implement policy that addresses the joint challenges of climate change, conflict and security. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, and grounding data collection in US policy communities, this article examines how policy actors and institutions integrate climate-security discourses into policy processes. The objective of this research is to provide direct insight into how the discourses and technical understandings of climate-security transition into policy priorities and implementation realities. This research identified three common approaches to climate-security: (1) A challenge of adaptation and resilience; (2) A potent political argument; and (3) An issue of limited importance and feasibility. These approaches, however, are inconsistent across sectors and within organisations, suggesting a lack of cohesion and considerable challenges in identifying and responding to climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.     

Climate resilience in fragile and conflict-affected societies: concepts and approaches

To understand resilience to climate and environmental changes in fragile and conflict-affected societies is particularly important but equally challenging. In this paper, we first develop a conceptual framework to explore the climate-fragility-conflict and climate-resilience-peace nexus. Second, we discuss approaches to promote pathways from climatic changes to peace. We draw on the relevant literature and International Alert's experience in fragile and conflict-affected societies to stress the key role of resilience. To build resilience, climate, development, peacebuilding, and government actors would have to overcome bureaucratic and institutional barriers and cooperate across thematic and regional silos.     

Roles and contributions of community seed banks in climate adaptation in Nepal

Community seed banks are an effective local institution to conserve quality seeds, to strengthen farmers’ accessibility to social seed networks, and improve agrobiodiversity and food security. This article analyses the prospects and challenges of community seed banks in climate change contexts. It finds that community seed banks serve as sources of climate-resilient seeds to withstand in local climates and improve community resilience. Community seed banks provide landraces for participatory crop improvement to develop resistant varieties to improve quality and productivity. They also strengthen participatory seed exchange to cope with climate adversity. However, there are challenges with defining specific and common goals, functions, approaches, and governance.     

Mainstreaming climate change into local governance: financing and budgetary compliance in selected local governments in Ghana

Through an interpretive research paradigm, we investigated the extent to which six local governments across three administrative regions of Ghana have complied with mandated climate change financing and budgeting guidelines. Five interesting findings emerged. First, there is enormous evidence of climate change budgeting compliance across all six local governments despite weak compliance incentives. Second, local governments that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change are more willing to comply and also allocate more resources for adaptation-related activities than those that are less vulnerable. Third, local governments that complied least are likely to take ad hoc adaptation actions which are often uncoordinated and poorly monitored. These local governments are least likely to attract auxiliary funds that could provide additional resources for adaptation financing. Lastly, the evidence of compliance is only quantitative, presented in various local governments’ fiscal documents, with no qualitative or other relevant explanatory factors on the extent of impact on adaptation.     

The roles of community seed banks in climate change adaption

Although community level seed-saving initiatives have been around for about 30 years, until recently they have received little attention in the scientific literature on climate change adaptation and plant genetic resources. Based on research experiences from various countries, this article argues that community seed banks can enhance the resilience of farmers, in particular of communities and households most affected by climate change. Community seed banks can secure improved access to, and availability of, diverse, locally adapted crops and varieties, and enhance related indigenous knowledge and skills in plant management, including seed selection, treatment, storage, multiplication, and distribution.     

俄罗斯外贸政策和措施的分析与评价

俄罗斯是中国最为重要的邻国之一,也是中国前十位贸易伙伴国。处于经济转轨时期的俄罗斯在市场经济体制改革、国内经济结构调整以及加入世贸组织等多重因素推动下,国内市场开放度已经大体相当于中国目前的开放程度。但俄罗斯经贸政策变动频繁,且可操作性较弱,实施中具有很多不确定性,而技术性贸易壁垒和"灰色清关"为主的海关程序是目前中俄贸易的主要障碍。     

The dollar and the demand for protection

Postwar trade politics in the USA have exhibited intermittent periods of rising industry demands for protection from imports. At present, however, we do not fully understand why industry demands for protection rise and fall overtime. We argue that intermittent protectionism in postwar USA has been driven by changes in the real exchange rate. To do so, we incorporate the real exchange rate into a basic model of sectoral trade policy preferences to show how the number of sectors that expect to benefit from protection grows as the real exchange rate appreciates. We test two hypotheses generated from this model: first that the number of antidumping and escape clause petitions rises as the dollar strengthens and falls as the dollar weakens. Second that competitive sectors are more sensitive to exchange rate movements than comparatively disadvantaged and comparatively advantaged sectors. We evaluate these expectations with a Bayesian statistical analysis of data on antidumping and escape clause petitions in the USA between 1974 and 2012. The empirical models provide robust support for the study’s principal hypotheses.     

Environment and climate mainstreaming: challenges and successes

This paper examines mainstreaming environment and climate change into development policy, planning, and budgeting. It looks at why we should integrate environment and climate and outlines challenges and successes. One result is that governments’ progress pro-poor and equitable development. Governance gains are important too: co-benefits include more transparent decision making and better cross-government working. Ultimately, the impact of mainstreaming has increased awareness, changed perceptions, and improved the way inter-sectoral decisions are made, especially in climate adaptation. This supports countries to achieve their sustainable development ambitions – lessons which could be applied to a post-2015 development agenda.     

Indicators for economic vulnerability to drought in South Africa

This article identifies and estimates economic drought vulnerability indicators among communal farmers in South Africa, using an economic vulnerability index based on a household survey of 121 communal farmers. The results show that lack of resources, unemployment, price sensitivity, market access, the level of farm debt, output, on- and off-farm diversification, management, and financial safety nets were the main economic vulnerability variables. Farm debt and financial safety provide the bulk of the vulnerability index. The study’s findings suggest that government should reconsider priorities in the implementation of appropriate policy measures in response to drought.     

Supporting local climate adaptation planning and implementation through local governance and decentralised finance provision

Policies developed at national levels can be unresponsive to local needs. Often they do not provide the rural poor with access to the assets and services they need to allow them to innovate and adapt to the ways that increased climate variability and change exacerbate challenges to basic securities – food, water, energy, and well-being. In development deficit circumstances, common pool resources are important for climate adaptation purposes. In order for climate adaptation actions to deliver resilience, local perspectives and knowledge need to be recognised and given due priority in formal planning systems. Basing formal adaptive development planning on local strategies can support and strengthen measures that people have been tested and know to work. Local climate adaptation through collective action can address current increases in climate variability, future incremental changes, and the need to transform existing systems to deal with qualitative shifts in climate. These types of adaptation can work in cumulative ways. The results of local adaptation collective action that have benefits of low rivalry between users while being highly inclusive can be considered “local public goods”. Evidence is beginning to emerge that when local governance systems facilitate high levels of participation in planning collective action for climate adaptation, and direct access to resources for implementing local plans, “local public goods” can be created and common pool resources better managed.     

Institutionalising mechanisms for building urban climate resilience: experiences from India

This paper examines how mainstreaming of urban climate change resilience – a crucial consideration in an increasingly urbanised world – is occurring at both the city and national scale, using the case of an internationally-funded resilience-building initiative in India. Surat city's newly-established Climate Change Trust illustrates the importance of an institutionalised mechanism for coordinating and sustaining climate initiatives. Concurrently, climate resilience is being mainstreamed into the national urban development agenda, through a network of Indian institutions. These two nascent mechanisms offer avenues for local city-level experiences to inform national directives, driving and sustaining the urban climate adaptation agenda across India.