“一带一路”倡议背景下日本在东南亚地区的战略扩张研究

一直以来,日本将东南亚地区作为其对外发展和制衡中国的重要战略要地。“一带一路”倡议使中国在东南亚地区的影响力上升,不可避免地影响到日本在东南亚地区的利益扩张。为了对抗“一带一路”,日本以维护“国家利益”与国际法治为由,调整其在东南亚的战略政策,表现出明显的战略扩张趋势。日本的战略扩张主要表现在:经济方面,抢占产业竞争制高点,挤压中国的市场空间;军事方面,塑造军事合作新局面,激化东南亚国家与中国对立;多边合作机制方面,主导规则构建,构筑制度优势。中国在有序推进“一带一路”合作计划的同时,必须对日本在东南亚地区的战略扩张保持足够的警惕。     

"台独"历史渊源与流变

幽灵,一个“台湾独立”的幽灵,正在台湾岛内游荡。“台独”最早的历史渊源还应该追溯到1894年的中日“甲午战争”。清廷战败后,1895年被迫到日本签订了《马关条约》,中国神圣领土台湾省被割让给日本。日本军国主义在台湾实行殖民统治长达半个世纪之久。第二次世界大战日本战败后,中国将依据《开罗宣言》光复台湾岛和澎湖列岛。在听到日本天皇宣布投降的消息后,日本驻台湾“总督”安藤利吉策动部分军国主义分子和收买下的台籍汉奸分子,在台湾建立起密谋“台湾独立”的地下组织。1949年10月1日,中华人民共和国宣告成立,蒋介石率领国民党军队的残兵败将退踞台湾。美国、日本一方面与做着“光复大陆”迷梦的台湾当局继续保持所谓的“外交关系”,朝鲜战争爆发后,美军并把第七舰队开入台湾海峡,把台湾作为对新中国形成包围圈的“不沉的航空母舰”;另一方面又扶持台湾士绅廖文毅等人搞“台独”活动。1950年廖文毅在日本东京正式成立了所谓“台湾民主独立党”,公开树起“台独”旗帜,开始了分裂中国的阴谋活动。这一事件被视为“台独”这一历史“怪胎”的呱呱落地。 1951年“旧金山和约”在海峡两岸均未参加的情况下,违背     

日本企业为何"失意"中国

“日本制造”长期以来在中国老百姓心目中是代表着可信赖的、微型的、精致的高科技产品的形象。但是2000年以来,日本企业接连发生产品质量缺陷、售后服务较差等问题,从国内闹得沸沸扬扬的东芝笔记本事件,到三菱汽车存在严重安全隐患,再到松下GD92型手机大规模返修,以及日航公司粗暴对待中国旅客等一系列事件,使得“日本制造”形象迅速在中国消费者心目中瓦解。冰冻三尺非一日之寒。在遭遇信任危机的背后,我们看到曾大举开拓中国市场     

美军基地"合围"中国沿海

为了有效对中国进行遏制 ,美国近年来在继续强化美日、美韩军事同盟的同时 ,积极加强对东南亚地区的军事渗透 ,扩大军事同盟 ,以实现对中国的“合围”。美国在太平洋巳建成了一个多层次、大纵深的基地网。其“第一线基地网” ,由北起日本 ,经密克罗尼西亚群岛、东南亚至印度洋的４个基地群所组成 ,而其中的３个已对中国沿海形成了“合围”的态势。东北亚基地群以第７舰队司令部所在地、“小鹰”号航母战斗群的母港日本横须贺为核心 ,辐射至佐世保及韩国釜山、浦项、镇海和那坝等港口和海军航空站 ,形成了美国海军在西太平洋的主要基地群。这…     

日本“价值观外交”背后的海权图谋北大核心

日本首相安倍晋三近日出访菲律宾、马来西亚和新加坡三个东南亚国家,明谓“汲取东盟活力以促日本经济重振”．实为谋求“海洋安全合作”,渲染“中国威胁论”。在其感觉良好的“价值观外交”表演背后,展现出其借助美国亚洲战略再平衡,构筑所谓海洋国家民主联盟,谋求介入南海问题的海权图谋。     

"西部大开发"的政治效应

“西部大开发”被称为中国改 革开放从“第一个大局”向 “第二个大局”迈进的历史转折点，在一定的意义上说,江泽民总书记1999年的“西安讲话”也是邓小平1992年“南巡讲话”的上下篇。中国现代化的困难之点，不是在东部，而是在西部。中国现代化的全面实现，最终也有赖于西部地区的发展。选择“西部大开发”战略，是顺应历史发展的必然。但是，讲到“西部大开发”，很多人的第一反应，就是产业结构的地区性转移、促进西部经济发展、拉动中国内需、为中国经济寻求新的增长点，等等。毋庸置疑，这些经济上的反应确实是“西部大开发…     

日本《防卫白皮书》十年之变

这十年,日本的战略威胁认识已由“北”向“西”,最终“锁定”中国,这个“威胁”还日益被视为主要“威胁”。     

"九·一八"前 日本武力侵占中国东北的准备

妄图使中国东北变成日本的殖民地,是日本大陆政策追求的第一目标,但是用什么方式?在什么时间达到这一目标?在日本有各种各样的"解决满蒙问题"的意见。到"九·一八"事变前,各种意见阐述的越加清晰。而为实现这一阴谋,日本关东军进行了周密的策划和军事部署。武力侵占的策划。独占中国东北,是日本实现其大陆政策及称霸亚州和世界战略的重要步骤。     

中俄发展"合作伙伴"关系的战略价值与积极推进对策思考

党的十六大以来,我国积极实施周边外交战略,成果丰硕。胡锦涛主席提出的中俄创建“五个合作伙伴”关系,是我国睦邻友好关系模式的一次新的探索,为中俄战略协作伙伴关系进入新阶段奠定了基调。我国与俄罗斯当下面临相似的战略任务和发展机遇。发展“合作伙伴”睦邻友好关系,对于巩固我国和平稳定的周边安全环境、改善对俄贸易的市场环境、稳定能源供应以及平衡美国影响、淡化“中国威胁论”和维护有利的战略机遇期具有重要的战略价值。推进“合作伙伴”关系,必须进一步增强政治互信,扩大经贸往来,拓展军事、科技、安全和人文合作空间及增强两国青年交流。     

日本主推东亚EPA的战略意图

日本力求掌握东亚区域经贸合作主导权东盟经济部长会议8月23日在吉隆坡结束。日本当晚在与东盟举行双边磋商之后,正式提出了对建立东盟与中日韩和印度、澳大利亚、新西兰建立“10 6”自由贸易区的建议。从此前和现在透露出来的信息看,日本提出该构想意在通过从FTA(自由贸易协定)到“东亚EPA”(“东亚经济伙伴关系协定”)的多元化策略,实现日本“掌握主导权”、控制“东亚区域合作战略制高点”战略理念。     

Between bilateralism and regionalism in East Asia: the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Abstract

This paper examines economic regionalism in East Asia with a focus on the key issues in harmonizing bilateral free trade agreements. The ASEAN+1 free trade agreements with China, South Korea and Japan represent the first attempts to structure cooperation in trade across Southeast and Northeast Asia. It is therefore important to examine the coverage of these agreements and the extent to which they actually liberalize trade. This study focuses on major choices made in the negotiation of the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the ways in which these choices help or hinder the consolidation of economic regionalism. The results achieved in the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement are limited at best. The agreement does establish some new areas of cooperation among the signatories but fails to address important issues for regionalism such as labor mobility. It also makes limited progress in harmonizing and liberalizing rules of origin. The ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement applies product-specific rules to fewer categories of goods than most of Japan's bilateral agreements with ASEAN members but those rules in place are still very restrictive. Moreover, the parties to the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement have the option of applying the rules of their bilateral agreement if it provides more favorable treatment. Thus, there is no guarantee the more liberal terms of the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement will be applied.     

Sino-Japanese Dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands: The Pending Controversy from the Chinese Perspective

The Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands have brought China and Japan into a bitter dispute for many decades. With regard to the real question of who owns sovereignty over the islands, the two claimants can not come to terms on several critical issues, such as whether the islands were terra nullius when Japan claimed sovereignty in 1895, whether Japan returned the islands to China after the Japanese defeat in WWII, and how their maritime boundary in the East China Sea should be demarcated according to international law. There is no ready solution to the longstanding stalemate, but the pending dispute could be shelved and managed from escalating into a military conflict. Dr. Zhongqi PAN is an Associate Professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs in Fudan University. He received his Ph.D. in international relations from Fudan University in 1999. He was a visiting scholar to Lund University (2006), the John K. Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University (2004), the Henry L. Stimson Center (2001), and University of Tokyo (1999–2000).     

The more the merrier? Sino-Japanese security relations in the context of complex interstate rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of Sino-Japanese rivalry in the security sphere concentrating on the Chinese perspective, and placing it within the wider context of complex interstate rivalry between China, Japan and the United States. From a theoretical viewpoint, this research contributes to the literature on interstate rivalry from multiparty perspective, which has been overlooked in existing research. China–Japan–US complex interstate rivalry includes elements of positional, spatial and ideological rivalry simultaneously. When rivalries mix two or more rivalry types, they become more difficult to resolve. The two broad trends of China’s military build-up and deepening US–Japan alliance evolve in tandem intensifying rivalry dynamics and increasing positional elements of rivalry. There are many indications on various levels that for China, controlling Japan’s international ambitions has become less important and more attention is paid to ways in which Japan helps the United States in reaching its objectives in Asia through their alliance agreement. The cases analysed to display complex interstate rivalry include the Taiwan question, territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, and the North Korean nuclear issue.     

The rise of the Chinese ‘Other’ in Japan's construction of identity: Is China a focal point of Japanese nationalism?

Abstract

Since 1945, the United States (US) has served as a focal point of both Left-wing and Right-wing Japanese nationalism. Both sides argued that the US was an arrogant hegemon that unjustly robbed Japan of its autonomy, and prevented Japan from achieving its own ideal national identity. Both sides frequently demanded that Japan should be more ‘resolute’ and resist unfair demands emanating from the US. In recent years, however, both camps are increasingly using the same rhetoric to criticise the Japanese government's China policy. China is also being depicted as an overbearing state that unfairly browbeats Japan into making diplomatic concessions. Given the similarities between the portrayal of China and the US, has China now become a nationalist focal point for both the Japanese Left and Right? Utilising constructivist insights, this article seeks to shed light on this question, by examining how the Japanese Right and Left portray China, and explores the implications for Japan's China policy.     

Competitive partners in development financing: China and Japan expanding overseas infrastructure investment

Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with the world in search for new economic engines, China and Japan have explicitly given their answer through their expansion of overseas infrastructure investments. This study focuses on the flagship sector of high-speed railways (HSR) and examines what kinds of development financing China and Japan have adopted in making these investments. It asks the following questions: What similarities are there in the Chinese and Japanese approaches to investments in overseas infrastructure, and how do they differ from traditional Western development financing? Also, in what ways have China and Japan changed their approaches to overseas infrastructure projects during this process? It argues that in the process of expanding overseas infrastructure investments and competing for infrastructure projects, China and Japan have become ‘competitive partners’ in challenging the traditional norms of development financing represented by the Washington Consensus and the Development Assistance Committee (DAC). To be more specific, China and Japan have adopted each other’s practices of tied commercial financing, heavy government involvement, focusing on physical infrastructure and industrialization, and showing respect for host-country forms of governance. In particular, by joining China in the new game of exporting infrastructure and through its own ‘quality infrastructure investment’ initiative, Japan has broken out of the constraints of DAC norms as an aid donor and endorsed some fundamental Chinese approaches to development and development cooperation, which in their turn were inspired by earlier Japanese practices.     

我国离婚率变动趋势及离婚态人群特征分析

从概念辨识入手,利用权威数据,描述近几十年我国离婚率和离婚态的变动趋势及水平。研究发现:我国的离婚率持续增长,超过日本与韩国;因年轻人口总量减少,可结婚人的比例下降,离婚结婚比持续上升。数据分析显示,1982年以来,我国离婚态占比单调上升:就人群特征而言,35-49岁年龄组、男性、中等教育程度人群(1990年除外)、商业服务人员和办事人员(1990年除外)离婚态占比最高,女性的离婚态占比较之男性上升趋势更为明显;就地域分布而言,各省处于离婚态人群的占比呈西高东低、北高南低趋势,东北地区及西部省区城市人群离婚态占比最高。离婚率和离婚态的持续攀升是多重制度、城镇化与市场化结构、家庭与个体特质等因素综合作用的结果。离婚不仅透视出家庭的不稳定性,损害(部分)家庭成员福祉,而且可能引发更大范围的负面效应。在尊重当事人意愿的前提下,必须从源头、过程和后果上加强对离婚行为的社会治理,减少不必要的离婚现象。     

Transgressiveness,civil society and Internet control in Southeast Asia

This paper assesses the potential of ASEAN Plus Three (APT) to catalyze a process of economic and political integration in East Asia. The analysis first illustrates APT participants’ projected views of APT’s opportunities and limitations and then assesses the motives and objectives driving APT cooperation. Following a review of the major achievements of APT, the study gives an outlook on APT’s relevance and prospects. The findings of the article are that most APT states do not advocate ideas of distinctive pan-East Asian regionalism, but rather take an Asia-Pacific perspective. Only Malaysia and China appear to be promoting more exclusive forms of East Asian regionalism. Within APT, China is aggressively pushing a strong China–ASEAN axis, whereas Japan is seeking to balance China’s efforts and step up its political and economic cooperative profile in the region. A look at the achievements of APT does not suggest a rapid spread of pan-East Asian regionalism. On the contrary, the proposed ASEAN–China FTA proposal has triggered fierce competition between Japan and China and thus divided APT even further. Moreover, it is not at all certain whether the ASEAN–China FTA plan is going to work out in the end, due to objections from various ASEAN members, including a somewhat capricious Malaysia. Whereas pan-East Asian integration efforts are unlikely, the APT process is attractive enough to keep Japan and China, who are competing for influence in Southeast Asia, committed to the APT process. Regardless of APT’s internal fragmentation, its dynamic has already begun to change the political and economic landscape of East Asia. Thus, ASEAN has been able to enhance its leverage vis-à-vis Japan and China, profiting from their strategic opposition. Japan’s reluctance to discuss trade liberalization with ASEAN members already appears to be crumbling, as it is struggling to preclude Chinese domination.     

中日第三方市场合作的挑战与对策

作为一种创新的国际合作模式,中日第三方市场合作未来发展前景广阔,给中日双方带来巨大机遇,但推动第三方市场合作仍面临诸多挑战:两国在参与第三方市场合作项目中存在竞争惯性思维;中日第三方市场合作须应对地缘政治博弈的挑战;日本国内政治对中日第三方市场合作的"负向外溢效应";中日关于第三方市场合作项目的标准与规则的分歧;面临第三方不稳定因素的影响.为此,需要中日两国发挥各自优势,携手寻求在第三方市场的合作机会;明确两国合作的方向和目标,避免域外因素干扰,推动RCEP早日签署生效;增进中日政治互信,使中日政经关系形成相互促进的良性循环;建立长效支持促进机制,推动双方共同制定国际标准;做好第三方市场风险管控预防工作.     

Asymmetrical rivalry between China and Japan in Africa: to what extent has Sino-Japan rivalry become a global phenomenon?

Abstract

To what extent is China–Japan rivalry a global phenomenon, and what is the nature of the rivalry they engage in outside their own region? Literature on Sino-Japanese rivalry abounds, but it pays scant attention to the relevance of the rivalry outside East Asia. This article argues that Sino-Japanese rivalry has indeed become a global phenomenon, that various forms of the rivalry are evident in Africa, and that they are mostly of an asymmetrical nature. Quantitatively, China’s contribution to Africa is far greater than that of Japan, with the exception of foreign direct investment (FDI). Qualitatively, though, Japan has a stronger sense of the rivalry than China has, revealing a psychological aspect to the asymmetry as well. Contextually, the types of activity that Chinese and Japanese actors carry out in Africa are not necessarily the same, which makes the rivalry all the more asymmetrical. The rivalry has become more apparent recently, not only because of the rise of China but also because of a change in the meaning of ‘Africa’ – from a region of ‘poverty’ and ‘hunger’ to a region of ‘economic opportunities’. That said, Africa – to a greater or lesser degree in each of its countries – still suffers from conflict and instability. As a result, the ability of Japan and China to exert power and influence throughout Africa is somewhat restricted.     

“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施领域中日竞合研究

"一带一路"沿线国家目前对基础设施的需求量比较大,为我国对外基础设施投资提供了难得的机遇,日本是这一领域我国最主要的竞争对手,也是重要的合作伙伴。中日在对"一带一路"沿线进行基础设施投资方面各有优势和劣势,基于双方的优劣势比较分析,我国可以通过以下路径改进中日竞合关系:发挥低成本优势,提高竞争和合作能力;增加对外基础设施投资的附加性收益;提高基础设施的国际化投资水平,培养高层次国际化人才;加强风险防范意识和风险管控能力;提高我国政府支持效率,加强中日政府合作。