韬光养晦与两面下注——中国崛起过程中的中美战略互动

自20世纪90年代初期以来,"韬光养晦"一直是中国对外战略中的重要指导思想。同一时期,美国总体上执行了一种"接触加遏制"的两面下注的对华政策。本文对"韬光养晦"与"接触加遏制"这一中美关系中的战略组合进行了分析,认为美国的"接触加遏制"政策存在若干内在矛盾,它实际是一种低水平接触加低水平遏制的政策。随着中国实力的上升,"接触加遏制"政策中的接触力度减小、遏制力度加大,这增大了"韬光养晦"政策的难度,降低了"韬光养晦"政策的效果。由于中美利益处于深度相互依赖状态,中美需要在一定程度上超越"韬光养晦"对"接触加遏制"这样的战略组合,使双边关系能在一个更为稳定与可持续的基础上,向符合双方共同利益的方向发展。     

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization,trade, and the roles of Iran,India and Pakistan

This article seeks to explore the implications of Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) engagement with India, Pakistan and Iran. Not in terms of power-politics or as a counterbalance to the USA as this has been explored elsewhere, but what practical problems such an expanded organization could help solve, what opportunities it could realize, and how SCO's engagement in trade is a function of favourable political and bilateral developments in the region. It is argued here that the trade, infrastructure and energy sectors are of particular importance and that substantial potential gains could be realized if coordination is improved. Nevertheless, it is also recognized that China, Russia, Pakistan, India and Iran may have lower standards of democratic development and economic transparency than the West. What is the motivation behind the SCO's engagement with India, Pakistan and Iran? Should this engagement be conceived only in terms of balancing US unipolarity or are there legitimate concerns of increasing regional cooperation in Eurasia?     

The New Left and Health Care Reform in El Salvador

After a decade of civil war and four consecutive conservative administrations, El Salvador's leftist FMLN won its first presidential election in 2009. How has public policy changed under this New Left government, and why? This article addresses the question in the area of public health care. An alliance of health sector leaders with both technocratic and diplomatic abilities capitalized on the policy window opened by the FMLN's electoral victory and worked within the parameters set by President Mauricio Funes, the FMLN, and civil society to universalize health care. The new minister of health, a professional highly esteemed inside and outside the country, was able to engage both a large social movement protesting neoliberal policy and an energetic health diplomat sent by the Pan American Health Organization. In designing its reform, this alliance benefited from international as well as “bottom‐up” policy diffusion.     

美国犹太组织与奥巴马政府对伊朗的政策

美国犹太组织是影响美国中东政策的重要因素。由于认定伊朗发展核武器对以色列的安全构成威胁,以及担忧奥巴马政府改变对伊朗的政策,因此美国犹太组织在国会内外开展游说,促请国会议员提出制裁伊朗的法案。尽管奥巴马阐明美国对伊朗奉行的是原则性接触政策,但不得不在国会的强大压力下签署了《伊朗制裁、问责、撤资综合法》。这一法律的出台结束了奥巴马政府接触伊朗的尝试,制裁和遏制再度成为美国对伊政策的主流。     

Civil Society Engagement in Trade Negotiations: CAFTA Opposition Movements in El Salvador

This article analyzes civil society participation in the free trade debate by focusing on networks that opposed the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) in El Salvador. Drawing on documents, direct observation, and semistructured interviews with civil society leaders, two kinds of opposition coalitions are identified. "Critic negotiators," emphasizing active engagement and policy research, used the limited participation space opened by authorities to push for reform. "Transgressive resisters," repudiating the formal consultation process, deployed confrontational tactics and posed more fundamental challenges. This work uses social movement theory to explore coalition resource mobilization, the role of movement entrepreneurs, strategic decisionmaking, mechanisms linking local and transnational activists, and the dynamics of intramovement competition.     

Keeping the Dragon at Bay: India's Counter-Containment of China in Asia

Abstract

Ever since their emergence as modern states in the middle of the twentieth century, relations between India and China have been exceedingly complex in nature and, for the most part, fraught with tension. This article reviews aspects of the Sino-Indian relationship over the past decade from a realist perspective, showing that despite surface improvements, bilateral ties are still marred by strong feelings of mistrust. It is argued that China has engaged in a policy of containment of India, challenging its regional pre-eminence in South Asia and stymieing its neighbor's emergence as a major world power. A careful study of India's newly assertive foreign policy, both in Asia and beyond, reveals that New Delhi has chosen to back its policy of engagement of Beijing with a form of counter-containment.     

“a carefully weighed plan with adequate safeguards for us”: Economic Policy and the Coordination of Australian-US Approaches to Japanese Aggression, 1939-41

The historical narrative of Australia's foreign and defence policy-making during the Pacific War tends to foreground the years 1941–42, characterising them as the turning point when the government realised that Britain alone could no longer protect Australia's regional security interests and turned to the United States of America for its salvation. This article makes a contribution to the alternative view, arguing that Australia was looking to the US well before Prime Minister John Curtin's famous “looks to America” proclamation. It does so with a focus on Australia's thinking and policy towards the engagement of the US in the years 1939-41, arguing that the coordination of its economic policy with the US, rather than seeking insight into high-level strategic planning, offered the nation the greatest opportunity to tie its security interests in the Asia-Pacific region with those of the US. In exploring the role of economic policy in Australia's preparation for war, this article offers new insight into the maturation of Australia's foreign policy apparatus.     

Counterproliferation Bargaining with the United States: China and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

This article analyzes China’s use of issue-linkage strategies in its approach to nuclear proliferation. It highlights that China has used its ties to nuclear proliferators as a bargaining chip vis-a-vis the United States. The United States is dependent on Chinese cooperation to secure nonproliferation objectives such as a non-nuclear Iran, and China has used this dependency to extract side-payments for its cooperation. Moreover, Beijing has used non-cooperation on nuclear proliferation as retaliation when the US has hurt its interests in unrelated policy areas, such as through arms sales to Taiwan. In contrast with past studies, the article claims that China’s approach to nonproliferation remains partly transactional to this day.     

Constructive Partner or Menacing Threat? Analyzing China's Role in the Iranian Nuclear Program

Abstract

This article examines contrasting paradigms of China's foreign policy in the context of China's role in the Iranian nuclear program. In contrast to revisionist and status quo paradigms, which view China as either a menacing threat or a constructive partner of the United States, this article advances a reformist paradigm that presents China as neither a follower nor an opponent of US policies. Rather, the reformist paradigm suggests that although China has placed a premium on its relations with Washington, it has also pursued stealthily obstructive policies in Iran that have enabled it to garner substantial narrow gains at the expense of compromising the US agenda in the region. The author calls this grand strategy opportunistic pragmatism.     

Hedging Against China: Japanese Strategy Towards A Rising Power

Debates about how states deal with rising powers have been mainly concentrated on a continuum comprising on balancing and bandwagoning strategies. While theory has principally offered realist and liberal explanations, Japanese behavior vis-à-vis China does not match with them. Japan is not powerful enough to balance against China but remains too strong to bandwagon. Accordingly, Tokyo is pursuing a mixed strategy of both containment and engagement, which may be better described as a hedging strategy against Beijing. This article analyzes which strategies states can adopt when dealing with a rising power and proposes a framework to analyze Japan’s recent policy towards China based on Kuik’s analysis. We argue that Japan’s hedging strategy towards China is consistent with how middle-power states deal with rising power.     

The Interplay between Demand and Supply for Engagement in Social Movement Organisations – Insights from Attac Germany and France

This research aims to evaluate whether two types of social movement organisations (SMOs) – an organisation that has political influence and an organisation that focuses on consistent ideological frames and schemata of interpretation, attract different types of activists with different engagement patterns. Based on a comparative study of the membership of Attac Germany and France – two branches of the same organisation, which have identical goals but differ in their degree of political relevancy and ideological consistency – the research shows that, thanks to its recent policy successes, Attac Germany is mainly comprised of instrumentally-oriented members. In contrast, Attac France lacks policy successes, but offers its members a coherent ideological framework. Consequently, the membership of Attac France predominantly attracts activists with strong values and beliefs. The second part of the article also shows that the two types of activists – more instrumentally-driven and more ideology-oriented individuals – display distinct engagement patterns.     

特朗普时期美朝关系变化轨迹与未来走向

特朗普就任美国总统以来,美朝关系经历了对抗与危机时期、缓和与蜜月时期以及僵持时期三个阶段。在对抗与危机时期,美国对朝采取经济制裁、军事演习等极限施压举措;在缓和与蜜月时期,美国对朝采取首脑峰会、工作磋商的接触政策;在僵持时期,美国对朝"谈压并举"。新冠肺炎疫情也没有给美朝关系改善提供机会之窗。而贯穿始终的是美国对朝制裁毫不放松。特朗普本人及其幕僚对奥巴马政府的对朝政策十分不满,积极应对突飞猛进的朝鲜核导技术,掌握在东北亚地缘战略竞争中的主导权。这成为特朗普政府对朝政策的动因。特朗普政府对朝政策推动了无核化谈判的展开和朝鲜半岛局势的缓和,但美朝无核化谈判依然陷入梗阻。     

Changing Global Landscape and Enhanced US Engagement with Asia—Challenges and Emerging Trends

United States President Barack Obama's announcement of significant shifts in US polices towards the Middle East and East Asia in 2009 has affected the global strategic landscape. President Obama's announcement of enhanced US engagement with Asia has posed certain challenges to the prevailing regional architecture of ASEAN centric institutions and ASEAN centrality which has fostered peace and stability, and prosperity in the region. The rise of China and its growing political and economic influence in the region and its military modernisation have aroused US concern that a rising China could in the future challenge its primacy in the Asia region. President Obama's announcement of a web of military alliances of treaty allies and strategic partners with the stationing of US marines in Darwin in November 2011 was perceived by China as an attempt by the US to contain China or constrain its rise. ASEAN is uneasy about any emergence of big power rivalry in the region.     

Australia’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper: Deconstruction and Critique

The 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper identifies major themes and recommends preferred strategies in Australia’s engagement with the world. These themes and strategies relate to geopolitics, economics and the ‘new international agenda’; there is also a more specific focus on Australia’s Pacific island neighbours and Timor-Leste. There is a strong emphasis on perceived Australian national interests throughout the document. The geopolitical discussion is primarily ‘realist’; economically the document is pro-globalisation; the discussion of the ‘new international agenda’ involves an Australian-oriented pragmatism; there is an assertion of Australian leadership in the South Pacific. With some minor criticism, Labor has accepted the general direction advocated in the White Paper. The document is thus indicative of the likely future direction of Australian foreign policy. Lack of US response indicates declining US engagement with Australia and the Asia-Pacific or Indo-Pacific region. China, as the other major power highly significant for Australia, has been low-key in its criticisms.     

US Covert Operations toward Iran,February–November 1979: Was the CIA Trying to Overthrow the Islamic Regime?

This article examines US covert operations toward Iran from February until November 1979. It focuses especially on whether the CIA was trying to undermine or overthrow Iran's nascent Islamic regime, as many Iranians believed. The article details the extensive covert contacts the CIA and other US personnel established in this period with Iranian officials and various Iranian opposition factions. Its main conclusion is that US officials established these contacts for the purpose of gathering intelligence about the rapidly changing situation in Iran, rather than to undermine the Islamic regime. Indeed, US personnel never encouraged these Iranian contacts to plot against the regime and often explicitly discouraged them from doing so.     

Reorganising Gender Relations in the German Civil Service: Administrative Reform,The Decline of the Male Breadwinner Model,and Female Employment

This article addresses the occupational change resulting from the recent public service reform in Germany and its consequences for gender relations in the civil service. It is argued that the reorientation towards micro-economic conditions brought about by the reform movement has put an end to a traditional concept of the civil service. It is shown that this concept originated in the period when the German civil service was seen as a profession, and that it is closely linked with the role of the man as breadwinner. In addition, the compatibility of the reform with an equal rights policy for the civil service is discussed. The conclusion is that the effects of the reform on gender relations are ambivalent, in that the decline of the male breadwinner model is hastened whereas measures to safeguard equal rights are opposed by the individualising tendency of the reform.     

Turkey's Application of the Montreux Convention in the Second World War

The primary aim of this article is to examine the policies of the elite in Iran in relation to political parties and organizations that have emerged between 1979 and 2009. It also attempts to argue that the politics of factionalism has proven to be incapable of creating a viable political system. On the other hand, it has been difficult to anticipate the emergence of a system based on party politics in Iran more than three decades after the revolution. The findings of this article demonstrate how determined the elite were in shaping politics in Iran, and will also show that the move away from factionalism to a system based on party politics between 1997 and 2009 faced stiff opposition from the conservative elite. The situation polarized politics in Iran and further increased intra-elite factionalism. This article relies mostly on Iranian primary sources, accessing opinions that have not yet been published or discussed. The focus is on examining the relationship between high-ranking members of the elite and organizations representing different interests within the system that came to existence either before or immediately after the revolution in 1979.     

奥巴马政府对伊朗政策的调整

奥巴马总统执政以来,美国对伊朗的政策轨迹表现出起伏性的变化。在执政初期,奥巴马试图改变布什时期美国与伊朗之间的敌对态势,对伊朗实施了积极接触的政策。但是,奥巴马趋向缓和的调整遭遇了国内外各种因素的挑战。在伊朗大选危机、美国国会坚持对伊朗实施制裁等因素的压力下,奥巴马逐渐回归到对伊强硬的姿态,并重新运用制裁这个工具遏制伊朗。从美伊关系的角度看,两国的领导层都没有足够的战略紧迫感来调整对各自核心利益的认知。双方都只是在建构良性关系的道路上迈出一小步,因此,这种试探性行为在两国国内政治和突发事件的影响下,很容易重新回到过去的对立状态。     

From ‘Dream Team’ to ‘Marriage of Convenience’? An Introduction

This introduction connects some of the main themes covered in this special issue on Chancellor Merkel's second coalition cabinet, which was formed in October 2009 and ended with the electoral collapse of the FDP in the Bundestag election of September 2013. It starts by setting out an interesting ‘puzzle’: the parties forming the coalition of 2009–2013 (CDU, CSU and FDP) had expressed a strong preference for this coalition in the run-up to the election of 2009. Despite their seeming agreement in many policy areas, the coalition formed in 2009 faced tough negotiations and conflicts between the parties from the beginning. The economic crisis the preceding government faced between 2005 and 2009 and unforeseen events during the course of the CDU/CSU–FDP coalition 2009–2013 (e.g. the Euro crisis and the Fukushima environmental disaster) had altered the policy agenda in important ways and rendered the former ‘Christian–Liberal reform project’ obsolete.     

主观性很重要——重新思考俄罗斯与西方关系

在后苏联时代,俄罗斯外交政策的典型特征是情境性前后矛盾的重复出现,即立场的不对称变化以及与参与政策形成巨大反差的行为。这种不合逻辑的外交政策行为突出表现在2008年俄格冲突、北约东扩和美国计划在西欧部署导弹防御系统的过程中。传统理性主义国际关系理论都是以行为体为中心,都假设行为体的政策偏好不是易变的,所以对俄罗斯这种让人困惑的外交政策行为时缺乏解释力。外交政策受到行为体对世界的主观解读和情绪的影响。俄罗斯不被西方尊重的感觉导致了两者的冲突,俄罗斯的"愤怒"是不被尊重的感觉导致的情绪化判断,是为了显示自身的重要性而非起破坏作用。分析俄罗斯外交政策中的主观性因素,为更好地理解俄罗斯与西方关系提供了一个新的理论和分析的角度。