Double-layered ethnic politics in Malaysia: national integration,ethnic unity and social stability

Each ethnic community has an ethnic-based political party both within the government coalition (Barisan Nasional: BN) and within the opposition coalition (Pakatan Rakyat and Pakatan Harapan). Therefore, Malaysia’s political structure can be described as double-layered ethnic politics. In this political structure, the BN government has been forced to adopt a fluctuating policy framework for nation building. As a result, double-layered ethnic politics impedes the development of national integration. Paradoxically, this phenomenon contributes to the maintenance of social stability as this political structure effectively prevents the establishment of a robust ethnic unity that may lead to ethnic conflicts.     

The Spring 2011 Landtag Elections: Regional Specificities or National Electoral Dynamics?

The year 2011 is a Superwahljahr in Germany, with five states (Hamburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Bremen) holding Land-level elections in the spring and two more (Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania) following in the autumn. The debate on the ‘second-order’ nature of Land elections – whether they are to be understood by their own regionally specific dynamics or whether they primarily serve as a proxy for national electoral trends – provides the frame for this election report and its discussion of campaigns, election results and coalition outcomes. These elections could perhaps best be described as ‘one-and-a-half-order’ elections: in some of these elections there was evidence of national electoral trends and national political issues, and voters undoubtedly rendered something of a judgement on the federal coalition government. Nevertheless, election and coalition outcomes probably had more to do with the specific political conditions prevailing in each of these states than with any overarching national dynamic.     

军队从政坛的退出与韩国社会转型:基于自然政府的视角

文章利用诺斯等人发展起来的基于自然政府的精英主义理论框架,重点讨论了对军队的政治控制与韩国从有限准入向开放准入社会转型之间的关系。分析表明,从20世纪60年代初开始,一批围绕朴正熙和全斗焕的军事精英通过建立一个包括军队官员、政党政治家、高级政府官员和资本家阶层在内的统治联盟,从整体上控制国家和社会,从而重建了韩国的有限准入社会秩序。然而这个相对稳定的社会秩序不是一成不变的,随着经济的快速发展和相应的社会结构的变化,社会反对势力尤其是中产阶级和工人阶层不断成长,军人执政联盟最终自掘坟墓,被迫于20世纪80年代末从政坛退出并将其归还给市民社会。沿着这一主题,文章分析了韩国对军队的政治控制过程及竞争性政治和经济市场的出现,指出两种市场的建立标志着韩国社会转型的完成。     

The Zero-sum Game of Governing Together? Effects of Merkel's Grand Coalition on the Results of the 2009 German Federal Election

Grand coalitions are highly debated in Germany, where large parts of the media and the political world expect negative effects of grand coalitions on parliamentary party systems. This did not happen either with Merkel's grand coalition resulting from the 2005 election or with other grand coalitions in the German Länder. On the contrary, only the SPD suffered heavy losses in 2009. Most experts agree that those losses were caused by the SPD's participation in the grand coalition. Still, it remains largely unclear how Merkel's grand coalition affected the 2009 federal election. To close that gap, this paper thoroughly analyses the effects of Merkel's grand coalition by looking at a crucial but mostly neglected factor in that regard, the evaluation of the grand coalition by voters. It can be shown that the CDU/CSU was mostly unaffected whereas the SPD suffered from being perceived as the less influential party in Merkel's grand coalition.     

‘Alliance with the Enemy’: Why the CDU and the Greens Formed Their First Coalition in a Large German Federal State

This article seeks to explain the 2013 coalition between the CDU and the Greens in the German federal state of Hesse. It applies traditional office-seeking and policy-seeking coalition formation theories to the case alongside a new explanation underscoring the influence of past behaviour on coalition partnership; namely, the negative impact of a pre-electoral commitment breach on future coalition formation. The results show that pure office-seeking cannot explain the coalition outcome. Instead, as the analysis of textual data extracted from political parties' manifestos shows, there has been a constant process of policy approximation between the CDU and the Greens in Hesse. Additionally, we find evidence suggesting that the SPD's breach on their promise not to rely on support by the Left Party in 2008 shaped the CDU's refusal to coalesce with the SPD in 2013. The findings add to our understanding of the interplay between office-seeking and policy-seeking motivations as well as the personal enmities of key actors in shaping the coalition formation. The study further offers insights into the new German coalition option between the Greens and the CDU, which can serve as a blueprint at the national level.     

Paranoia with a purpose: conspiracy theory and political coalitions in Kyrgyzstan

This article considers the political uses of conspiracy theories (CTs). It is widely accepted that post-Soviet citizens are prone to believe CTs, but there has been little research about the conditions under which politicians endorse conspiracy narratives and why those narratives sometimes become hegemonic. I argue that in times of high uncertainty, CTs have properties that are useful in providing political elites with a focal point for coordination in the absence of other bases for coalition formation. I demonstrate this logic by analyzing the politics surrounding the construction and spread of a conspiracy narrative following violence in Kyrgyzstan in 2010. Politicians with different interpretations of the event coalesced around a contrived conspiratorial narrative, and used it to paper over differences as they formed a ruling coalition. This argument has implications for how to understand the appearance and durability of conspiracy claims in states where political formations are fluid.     

Voters without a Party: The ‘Long Decade’ of the Italian Centre-Right and its Uncertain Future

Abstract

Following the corruption scandals of the early 1990s, the birth of the electoral coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi, and its occupation of government in 1994, 2001 and 2008, was interpreted by many as a sign of a new era of success for the Italian centre-right. Yet, after narrowly losing the 2013 national elections, the centre-right appears to have fallen into a political abyss. While opinion polls suggest that its potential electorate is still wide, the former allies that made up the coalition have been fragmented and weakened by a series of splits, leaving the centre-right divided into a more moderate component and an openly populist one. The centre-right’s old ruling elites have lost credibility, but the new younger leaders, like Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni, are not able to re-unify the former coalition. The centre-right has been riven by several factors that explain its difficulties during the decade of the economic crisis: the personalisation of its leadership, factionalism, a divergence of programmes, a failure of institutionalisation and ongoing corruption and legal problems. These factors also look set to condition its political future.     

Watchdogs in Our Midst: How Presidents Monitor Coalitions in Brazil's Multiparty Presidential Regime

When delegating governing tasks to a coalition partner, the president would like to give a minister ample administrative powers to be able to effectively accomplish the political mission. Due to information asymmetries, the president runs the risk that this discretion might be used to pursue policy outcomes that may harm the president's preferences. This trade‐off between delegation and control is key to understanding governance strategies the president chooses to minimize agency risks and coordinate public policies. With Brazil as a case study, this article demonstrates that presidents have strategically made frequent use of junior ministers as watchdogs of coalition partners, especially when coalition allies are ideologically distant from the president's preferences. Yet neither the portfolio salience nor the president's decision to share powers with coalition partners proportionally seems to interfere in such strategic decisions.     

The 2006 Landtag Election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

The election of the fifth state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was, for the first time since 1990, a ‘true’ state election because it did not take place on the same day as the federal election. The opportunity for thrusting this state's own political topics into the limelight was, however, not used by any of the parties. Both the SPD which had been part of a red-red coalition with the PDS since 1998 and the CDU left the coalition question open during the campaign. Partially because of this, there was no polarization among voters. The voter turnout was quit low. Despite great losses, the SPD emerged as the strongest party. The Linkspartei.PDS made only minimal advances and the CDU dropped to a record low of less than 30 per cent of the vote. In addition to the FDP which was able to re-enter parliament for the first time since 1990, the right-extremist NPD managed to overcome the five percent hurdle. Thus, the previous three party system ended. Due to the narrow majority, Prime Minister Harald Ringstorff (SPD) decided against a continuation of the red-red coalition and instead formed a grand coalition with the CDU.     

Korean elites: Social networks and power

During the period of rapid industrialisation, Korean business elites sought to establish a ruling alliance of state officials, politicians, business owners, and professional managers that formed a social coalition to influence the state and society as a whole, reinforced through extensive social and political networks with various ruling groups. The elite community has generated a high degree of self-recruitment and social closure through school, marriage and kinship networks. In this way, the leading sector of the Korean business elite has formed complex, often contingent, relations with the state elite, and acts as an integral part of the upper class in society.     

Sports Cars,Sleaze and Gamma Rays: Rhineland-Palatinate Elects its First Red-Green Government

The 2011 election in Rhineland-Palatinate was a political earthquake: Following a string of political scandals, the SPD lost almost ten percentage points of their support, while the CDU could hardly improve on their disastrous 2006 result. The FDP is no longer represented in the state parliament. The Greens more than tripled their last result, allowing them to enter a coalition with the SPD for the first time.

Analyses at the municipal level show that the party improved most in their urban strongholds while still showing a (relatively) weak performance in rural areas. This will make it difficult to sustain the momentum of their victory. Moreover, the SPD is battered and bruised and needs to select a new leader, but veteran minister president Kurt Beck shows no inclination to step down. This does not bode well for a coalition that needs to organise the state's fiscal consolidation and structural transformation.     

Las reformas políticas en el gobierno de Sebastián Piñera Chile, 2010-2013

This paper analyzes political reforms carried out by Sebastián Piñera’s government in Chile. Te reforms considered are those that his Coalition for Change campaigned on as part of the presidential and legislative elections in 2009. Tese reforms promised an improvement in the quality of democracy, and promised its consolidation, including increased political participation, in order to counter the most common criticisms of institutions of representation. Throughout this process, the government showed little receptivity to proposals coming from other sectors, both of the ruling coalition and the opposition; furthermore, it paid scant attention to growing citizen protests and their demands voiced since his second year of government. Te information analyzed conveys little progress in decentralization and in the importance that players with veto powers were gaining within the ruling coalition.     

Dilemmas in the making of civil society in Korean political reform

As Korea moves from a state-dominated to a civilian-driven society, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have emerged as an institutional hybrid that undertakes public functions through private initiatives. Recently NGOs have gone beyond diverse social issues to promote political reform. On 12 January 2000, Citizens' Alliance for General Elections (CAGE) — a loosely coupled coalition of NGOs formed to reform the nomination process and realize citizen political sovereignty — ousted 59 of 86 disfavored candidates from the political stage in the 16^th General Elections in 2000. The coalition gained public support and persuaded the government to revise election law and readjust electoral constituencies. NGOs such as CAGE have thus become salient political actors and credible public institutions propelling democratic transition. Yet CAGE activities were never made legal and failed to mobilize voters — the 16^th elections had the lowest voter turnout in Korean history left regional party monopoly intact, and provided no clear vision for political reform. CAGE inability to generate grassroots collective action exacerbated its own lack of focus, even as its success diminshed the role of conventional political actors. These limitations, representing instructive dilemmas in the making of civil society, suggest that NGOs need to specify their functions, increase civic engagement, and promote citizen networks and cooperation for the common good in a society.     

‘With the Islamists?—Sometimes. With the State?—Never!’ Cooperation between the Left and Islamists in Egypt

Recent forms of cooperation between unexpected bedfellows who have been traditional enemies of the past are making their way into the political opposition scene in different countries of the Middle East. Egypt offers an interesting example of a rising coalition between members and groups who have traditionally been arch enemies in the past, namely; factions of the Left, Islamist groups, nationalists, and an array of loosely organized opposition groups. The paper attempts to document and analyse the development of this coalition within a framework of New Social Movements and transnational civil society.     

泰爱泰党与泰国的政治发展

泰爱泰党以自己清晰具体的政策和组建大联盟政府的具体做法给泰国的政治发展注入了某种活力,在某种程度上,使泰国政治超越了传统的金钱政治以及政治掮客的控制,实现了资源分配的相对公平,实现了政府权力的长期稳定运行.而泰爱泰党之所以能够做到这一点,关键在于该党政治家及时地顺应了社会的要求.     

Budgetary Politics and Veto Players

In this article we examine whether and how the policy‐oriented coalition building and the gridlock model of legislative choice explain changes in the allocation of German budgetary items between 1961 and 1994. The policy‐oriented coalition‐building approach suggests that only policy‐connected budgetary actors can make changes in the budgetary composition, while the location of the status quo is essential for budgetary modifications according to the gridlock model. We also draw the attention to the identification of the set of relevant budgetary veto players and their preferences by distinguishing between models of the government, the political parties of the Bundestag, and the two of them. We test the predictive power of these approaches and conceptions in a competitive manner and control for macroeconomic and other political factors that might influence changes in the budgetary allocation. Our findings show that the gridlock model better explains budgetary changes, and that the government is responsible for decreasing, but the political parties of the Bundestag majority are decisive for increasing the size of budgetary items. We conclude that identifying the relevant veto players and using these more sophisticated approaches on budgetary decision making provide significant insights into the political reasons for changing the allocation of the German budget.     

The 1999 ecological tax reform law

On 26 November 1999, the second stage of the German government's ecological tax reform law was passed by the Bundesrat. For a coalition that has been under increasing pressure, this law marks a significant political achievement, especially in the context of the poor recent run of Lander election results. This article briefly examines the background to the new law, before outlining the details of its first and second stages, focusing on the compromises made in finalising the second stage. It then discusses some of the reactions to the law and argues that it can be seen as a success for both partners in a coalition government that is struggling in relation to both internal cohesion and electoral success.     

The 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Timor‐Leste

In the wake of the 2006 “east‐west” crisis in Timor‐Leste, the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were widely heralded as a key test of political development in the newly independent nation. This article analyses the pre‐election situation, significant electoral law changes, the emergence of new political parties, campaign incidents, poll results, and postelection negotiations over a coalition government. It concludes by reflecting on some of the wider implications for political stability in Timor‐Leste, and related developments through 2008. 1     

The Indigenous in the Plural in Bolivian Oppositional Politics

This article examines how currents of Bolivia's indigenous movement are gravitating to the city and to the centre of national political life, capitalising on popular sentiment against the political status quo, economic privatisation and violations of national sovereignty. The Movement Toward Socialism led by Evo Morales does not promote a separatist ethno-national project; instead, it uses regional, national and international coalition building to equate indigenous with non-indigenous issues through resonant political analogies that frame Bolivia's national crisis of political legitimacy in terms of indigenous rights, while making common cause with diverse urban popular sectors who, if not indigenous, recognise their indigenous cultural heritage as a crucial background to their own struggles against disenfranchisement.     

Land governance as grey zone: the political incentives of land reform implementation in Africa

Weak state capacity has often been in focus when explaining why land reform in sub-Saharan Africa is not implemented. However, an analysis of the deeper politics of land reform brings our attention to a set of incentives which allow rules governing land to be open to interpretation. This article demonstrates that in Uganda, the need to maintain the ruling coalition in a clientelist political settlement to build electoral support, and the desire to attract economic investors, constitute political incentives to maintain land governance as a grey zone, even if there is apparent political will to implement land reforms.