韩美同盟的现状:以战略同盟构想为中心

本文旨在以李明博政府的韩美战略同盟构想为中心,对韩美同盟的现状进行探讨。李明博政府正力图将现有韩美安保同盟发展为一揽子战略同盟,以此提升国力。由于面临着霸权的现实性局限,深感全球层面的同盟合作变得更加切合实际的美国奥巴马政府正在接受这一构想,但是对于具体的方案,两国的理解并不完全一致。而这一点正是本文的要旨之所在。     

美韩同盟再定义:一种联盟理论的视角

冷战结束以来的美韩关系出现了诸多松散和变动的迹象,然而传统的联盟理论似乎难以提供合理的解释,制度主义和建构主义的理论也只是提供了某些有益的分析视角。本文试图借助于“利益平衡”与“安全平衡”的双平衡作为逻辑分析的基点,从而构建一种“威权式联盟”(authoritative alliance)的理论,并力图以此对美韩同盟当前的演变形态与重新定义的基本方向做出初步的理论分析。     

驻韩美军与韩美同盟

冷战结束后,基于冷战体制形成的韩美同盟受到一定程度的挑战,一方面伴随着美国世界战略的调整,驻韩美军的调整势在必然,另一方面随着国力的增强,韩国调整不平等同盟关系的呼声日益高涨.但美国的全球战略和韩国的现实主义考虑决定了韩美同盟不可能走向解体.今后韩国政府的对美政策基调是在维持韩美同盟关系的前提下,努力对韩美同盟进行修正,使韩美关系向平等的伙伴关系发展.     

同盟关系变化对韩朝关系的影响

朝鲜半岛分裂伊始,南北双方就陷入了安全困境,不得不追求一种依存性的安全保障,即借助与大国结盟来取得军事优势。在有关朝鲜半岛几乎所有重大事件中都有美国的参与,形成美日支持韩国、中苏支持朝鲜的二元对立格局。纵观朝鲜半岛南北关系的发展,同盟的作用力,既可以有力地促进半岛的和平进程,也可以阻碍、中断半岛的和平进程,甚至让半岛继续长期处于分裂的对峙状态。     

The Liberals as Managers of the Australian-American Alliance

Only occasionally has the worth of the Australian‐American alliance been questioned in Australian politics — and then it has usually been at the expense of the detractors. More important has been the question of how the alliance has been managed. How have Australian governments of the last fifty‐four years dealt with features such as the asymmetry of the relationship, in terms of power; the potential disruptions to avoid; the growing range of policy issues and ministerial portfolios to consider; the need for good relations at officials' level; and the need to keep the alliance out of party politics as much as possible? If the Menzies Government began well in the 1950s, then involvement in the Vietnam War was a low‐point in the mid‐late 1960s, and it took until the 1990s for the Liberals to recover from this. The Howard Government's efforts since the late 1990s, however, have gone a long way towards restoring the Liberals' reputation as effective managers of the alliance.     

The Menzies Government and the Grand Alliance during 1939

This article is a study of the Australian government's exchanges with the Chamberlain government over the ultimately unsuccessful attempt to negotiate a Grand Alliance between the United Kingdom, France and the Soviet Union during 1939. Robert Menzies and Stanley Bruce carefully weighed the arguments for and against before deciding to support the proposal for an Alliance. Yet there was considerable ambivalence about their support as evidenced by Bruce's panicky response to the Molotov‐Ribbentrop Pact. In its own very small and distant way the Menzies government contributed to the inertia that marked the British Empire's failure to secure a Grand Alliance in 1939.     

US-Japan Alliance: The Political Dimension

George W. Bush was inaugurated as the new president of the United States on 20 January 2001. How will the change in personnel influence Washington's approach to its relationship with East Asia and, in particular, with Japan? Takashi Oka, a Washington-based consultant to the Liberal Party of Japan who was for many years a correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, considers this question in the following article. Oka argues that the strategic importance of the US-Japan alliance has not lessened with the end of the Cold War,and that in order to confront the security challenges of the twenty-first century, Japan's position within the US-Japan alliance needs to change from that of a protected subordinate to that of an equal partner. For this to be possible, a politician with sufficient vision and power, someone with a clear foreign policy, who is strong enough in domestic politics to carry out that policy, needs to emerge in Japan.     

伊藤博文与日英同盟

缔结日英同盟是近代日本外交史上的一个重大事件，当时伊藤博文是元老中的主导者，在外交事务上拥有极大的发言权。伊藤博文对日英同盟采取了怎样的态度、在同盟交涉中起了什么样的作用，对此史学界是众说纷纭。本文主要利用日英同盟的提出及交涉期间，伊藤与首相桂太郎、外相小村寿太郎、元老井上馨、驻英国公使林董等之间的信息交流资料，来探讨一下伊藤的态度及其在整个过程中所起的作用。伊藤博文不反对日英同盟，但主张先进行日俄协商，协商结束后再推进日英同盟。而桂太郎内阁则趁伊藤出访海外之机，全力推进缔结同盟，事实上将伊藤置于决策之外，使其处于被知会者地位，打破了长期以来伊藤博文、井上馨等对日本外交的垄断局面。     

Political Change in America and Implications for the US-Japan Alliance

This article examines the domestic political dynamics behind US president Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to trade and foreign policy, to understand better how long this strain of American economic nationalism might last and what it means for Japan’s national security strategy. The political base for Trump’s trade protectionism and apparent indifference to allies has roots stretching back into American history, but this movement has strengthened in recent years due to a combination of growing economic inequality in the United States, demographic changes, and the impact of fast-paced technology development and economic globalization. These political trends are likely to persist beyond Trump’s presidency, although some potential negative effects on Japan and the US-Japan alliance in the medium-to-longer term can be mitigated by Japan’s proactive foreign policy and other steps. The alliance still offers a great deal of value to both countries—now and into the future—but Japan should consider a slightly larger global leadership role in concert with others, even as the allies work to enhance their continued cooperation on shared interests.     

政治身份认同与缅甸果敢同盟军的瓦解

生存达二十年之久的缅甸非政府武装组织果敢同盟军于2009年8月被缅甸中央政府解除武装而宣告瓦解。本文通过对果敢同盟军、佤邦联合军和掸邦东同盟军这三个背景相似的缅甸非政府武装组织的比较研究,提出导致果敢同盟军瓦解的内部深层次的支撑性原因是该组织政治身份认同的缺失的观点。通过这一案例,本文试图提出政治身份认同是非政府武装组织在主权国家内生存的必要条件这一一般性假说。     

日美同盟与日本的军事大国化倾向

冷战后日本军事大国化倾向不断加强。这是与日美同盟的强化过程同步进行的 ,日美同盟成为日本政府拓展军事力量发展空间的主要外部借助因素。日美同盟不仅提升了日本自卫队的军备扩张水平 ,且促使日本的海外派兵日趋“正常化”,但日本自主防卫力量的发展也给未来的日美同盟带来了诸多不确定性。     

The Menzies Government,the American Alliance and the Cuban Missile Crisis

This paper questions the traditional view of the Australian‐American relationship: that Australian dependency entailed unequivocal support for American foreign policy. It uses a particular Cold War event — the Cuban Missile Crisis — to examine the extent to which the reaction of the Australian government conformed to the general perception of immediate and absolute endorsement of the Kennedy administration's position. The paper will argue that the actual response of the Menzies government, as distinct from its public pronouncements, was constrained rather than unconditional, considered rather than reflexive, and shaped by strategic calculations of Australian interests.     

The Atlantic Alliance in a Global System

The war in Iraq led to a confrontation between emerging American and European models for global governance. In imagining the future, each has tended to project its own positive experience in the Cold War years. Europeans imagine a multilateral concert, with confederal institutions encouraging mutual appeasement. Americans imagine a benevolent unipolar hegemony. Experience in the 1990s reinforced America's unipolar perspectives. Trends in the new century make Europe's model seem better adapted to an increasingly plural world system. The conclusion speculates on the European model's relevance to Asia. Much will depend on whether China and Japan can replicate the Franco-German reconciliation. China may have more success “containing” the US within a larger Eurasian or even UN context, including, in some fashion, Europe and the US. Conceivably the Western powers may more easily balance their own relations in a Eurasian rather than transatlantic geopolitical framework.     

A US-Japan Foreign Policy Alliance for Myanmar

Rarely before has such a large and potentially consequential country tried to reform itself politically and economically as Myanmar is now attempting, following an extended period of extreme isolation and amid unprecedented international and digital connectedness that exists today. This is a challenge not only for Myanmar, but also for the United States and Japan as they try to facilitate this transformation in productive ways, in a coordinated fashion, and consistent with their own foreign policy and commercial interests. A pertinent question, therefore, is whether or not Washington and Tokyo are inclined and prepared to address Myanmar's transition as an alliance issue, and if they are, then what is an efficient and effective way to go about this task.

The answer is mixed, for despite their pursuit of many common interests, the policy priorities and policy making environments in the United States and Japan differ significantly. In simple terms, the United States has a “democracy first” agenda in Myanmar that sometimes limits its options, while Japan takes a more flexible approach in order to maximize engagement and business opportunity. Still, President Obama and Prime Minister Abe provided a mandate in April 2014 to strengthen alliance cooperation in Southeast Asia (and in Myanmar in particular), and the two countries have complementary strengths and local networks that can be leveraged more effectively for the benefit of all.

Despite US concerns about stalled political liberalization and human rights abuses in Myanmar, Washington should take a longer-term horizon for evaluating reforms and consider enhancing its leverage with Myanmar through more effective policy coordination with Japan (which is a major player in the country), rather than the maintenance or reapplication of sanctions.     

一党独大下马来西亚多党联盟政治的发展

马来西亚"巫统"一党独大下的多党联盟政治体制,在国家政治生活中居领导地位.数十年的政治稳定,成为马来西亚政治发展的重要特色,而谋求多元族群政治仍将是未来马来西亚政治发展的可能趋势之一.     

On the Verge of an Alliance: Contemporary China-Russia Military Cooperation

ABSTRACT

The deterioration of Russia-US relations as a consequence of the Ukraine crisis and growing tensions in US-China relations have given rise to the perception that China–-Russia relations are an actual or incipient alliance. However, the alliance elements in China-Russia relations have never been systematically defined and empirically assessed, which makes assessing alliance dynamics in these important bilateral relations difficult. This article develops and applies a set of empirical criteria for an alliance to define how closely the post-Cold War China-Russia military relations have approached the alliance condition. It demonstrates that China and Russia have created strong institutional foundations for an alliance, and now only minor steps are necessary for a formal and functioning military alliance to materialize. However, the occurrence of such steps is not yet guaranteed.     

不对称同盟与韩国的反美主义

韩国与美国之间是一种不对称的军事同盟关系。1953年朝鲜战争结束后,应韩国的强烈要求,美国开始在韩国长期驻军。民主化后,韩国的反美主义日益高涨,直接针对韩美军事关系,出现了要求驻韩美军撤出的呼声。韩国人态度发生转变的根源在于:经济的高速发展和政治的民主化激发了韩国人空前的民族主义,由于美国的军事存在与民族主义相冲突,导致一些韩国国民对韩美不平等关系的不满日益增长。尽管韩美两国也试图对双边关系做出调整,但这种调整未能满足韩国人的心理需求,反而激起了更多的不满。