Editor's Note: Special Feature – China,India, and the Future of Great-Power Politics

Abstract

This review essay is based upon Shuja Nawaz' Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within and Ayesha Siddiqa's Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy. Based upon these two author's insightful volumes, this essay explores the roles of both military and civilian actors and institutions in the undermining of Pakistan's constitutional rule of law. While conventional wisdom places the onus disproportionately upon the military's penchant for interventionism, this review essay contends that the army has intervened only with the active assistance of civilian institutions which are subsequently further eroded with every military takeover. Thus any long-term solution to democratize Pakistan must focus both upon the army's presumed “right” and “obligation” to intervene in Pakistan's political system while simultaneously strengthening and professionalizing those civilian institutions needed for providing good governance with accountability.     

Sexual Slander and the 1965/66 Mass Killings in Indonesia: Political and Methodological Considerations

Indonesia has been haunted by the “spectre of communism” since the putsch by military officers on 1 October 1965. That event saw the country's top brass murdered and the military attributing this putsch to the Communist Party. The genocide that followed was triggered by a campaign of sexual slander. This led to the real coup and the replacement of President Sukarno by General Suharto. Today, accusations about communism continue to play a major role in public life and state control remains shored up by control over women's bodies. This article introduces the putsch and the socialist women's organisation Gerwani, members of which were, at the time, accused of sexual debauchery. The focus is on the question of how Gerwani was portrayed in the aftermath of the putsch and how this affects the contemporary women's movement. It is found that women's political agency has been restricted, being associated with sexual debauchery and social turmoil. State women's organisations were set up and women's organisations forced to help build a “stable” society, based on women's subordination. The more independent women's groups were afraid to be labelled “new Gerwani ” as that would unleash strong state repression. This article assesses the implications of these events for the post-1998 period of Reformasi and reviews some recent analyses of 1965, state terrorism and violence and reveals blind spots in dealing with gender and sexual politics. It is argued that the slander against Gerwani is downplayed in these analyses. In fact, this slander was the spark without which the bloodbath would not have happened and would not have acquired its gruesome significance.     

Is Russia a militocracy? Conceptual issues and extant findings regarding elite militarization

The dominant paradigm for understanding contemporary Russia holds that Vladimir Putin's tenure in office has been accompanied by a massive influx of former KGB and military personnel – so-called “siloviki” – into positions of power and authority throughout the polity and economy. Claims of extensive elite militarization, however, are largely based on the analyses of only one research program and, moreover, the validity of the estimates produced by that research program is open to question on numerous grounds. In this article, we review existing research on elite militarization in Russia; discuss a series of conceptual and empirical issues that need to be resolved if valid and meaningful estimation of military–security representation is to be achieved; introduce new findings; and evaluate the totality of existing evidence regarding whether the Russian state under Putin deserves to be labeled a militocracy. We find that the most straightforward reading of existing data indicates that the percentage of siloviki in the political elite during Putin's first two terms as president was approximately half of that which has been widely reported in both scholarship and the media, and also declined during the Medvedev presidency. In addition, our analysis of a broader cross section of the elite estimates military–security representation during the Putin presidency to have been lower still. Overall, existing data paint a less alarming picture of the depths to which siloviki have penetrated the corridors of power since 2000 than has been commonly portrayed and thereby cast doubt on Russia's status as an “FSB state.” On the other hand, past trends also provide some basis for expecting that the numbers of siloviki will once again rise during Putin's current presidential term.     

China's troubled culture

Abstract

China has spent the twentieth century at repeated efforts, in Ezra Pound's phrase, to “make it new.” But it has repeatedly fallen back on tightly controlled political power and organization as the only means it knows—in the process always discouraging individual initiative and forestalling free expression of ideas, qualities perceived by those in power as twin threats to the order of the state. The use of military force against Chinese citizens on 4 June 1989 is only the most recent example that China has seldom allowed itself to experience the creative chaos that might arise from a true “hundred flowers” era, a protected arena of competing voices. This, at least, is the theme that tugs at the cuff of each of the books grouped here—two cultural studies, three memoirs, and a manifesto.     

The Greening of the Brass: Taiwan's Civil–Military Relations since 2000 1

Abstract

Since the Democratic Progressive Party's stunning victory in the 2000 presidential election, Chen Shui-bian has accelerated the process of creating an officer corps without strong party inclination toward the KMT. What is the impact of Taiwan's democratization on its civil–military relations? What is the prospect of transitioning from a party-army to a “national army”? Will the DPP's zealous advocacy for Taiwan's independence be incompatible with the military's long-held belief in “China-centered” nationalism, straining relations between the military and the new administration? The analyses, implications, and conclusions of this study will shed light on the general role of the military in Taiwan's democratic transition and consolidation.     

Shifting the perspective on identity discourse in Estonia

Abstract

I argue that the post-socialist identity discourse in Estonia should be studied as a result of the dialectic relationship between the international context in which Estonia exists and the perceptions of history and culture that elites deploy in the public discourse of Estonia's identity. Four major narratives that compose much of the identity discourse emerge from this dialectic: Estonia as a reconstituted state and society; Estonia as European; Estonia as Finno-Ugric; and Estonia as Nordic. These narratives can be overlooked if research relies simply on “East” and “West” analytic categories or assumes that history and culture alone yield identity. Estonia provides an excellent opportunity to examine this dialectic because of the international community's role in the country's transformation into a European Union applicant state.     

The Resilience of Monarchised Military in Thailand

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that conventional notions of Thailand’s military must be re-examined because they misrepresent the military’s role in politics. Instead of examining its material interests, one must also scrutinise the power and legitimacy of Thailand’s armed forces in terms of its connection to monarchy over time. The relationship between monarchy and military represents a “parallel state”, whereas the ideology, rituals and processes within this relationship result in what can be termed a “monarchised military.” The purpose of this nexus is to sustain a palace-centred order from which the military obtains legitimacy. From 1991 until 2014, the monarchised military mostly operated behind a defective democracy, although it occasionally carried out coups to re-assert the palace’s authority. Its more recent political intrusions have enhanced the military’s power on Thailand’s political stage. Civilian prime ministers have unsuccessfully sought to reign in the military, but to no avail owing to the armed forces’ close association with monarchy.     

INDIA'S MYANMAR POLICY AND THE ‘SINO-INDIAN GREAT GAME’

Recent literature has aimed to “deconstruct” the notion of a “Sino-Indian rivalry” in Myanmar. The argument is that China's leverage in Myanmar far outweighs India's, and that the Tatmadaw nevertheless prevents either country's manipulation of Myanmar. In contrast this article argues that the idea of a “Sino-Indian Great Game” still marks the Indian debate, thinking and policy on Myanmar. China's continued rise will remain a main driver behind India's Myanmar policy, and Myanmar will remain geostrategic relevant to India.

The article describes the historical legacy of India's relationship with Myanmar, discusses the role of China in Indian Myanmar policies, and examines the effects of Myanmar's democratization process. While the Myanmar playing field has changed, Indian perceptions of a “Sino-Indian Great Game” are lasting.     

IMPERIAL DESIGNS

For a very short period after the attacks on 9/11, as the United States bombarded Taliban positions and the alleged training camps of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida organization, Afghanistan was center stage. Then, as the mundane mopping up, the political haggling, and the international community's efforts to manage the postwar mess took over, the spotlight turned to Iraq. Yet even while Afghan landscapes, politics, and economic and social practices were the focus of the world's attention, the country's history and its place in Central Asia and in the wider realm of Asian and global geopolitics were little covered by the media. This essay outlines how Afghanistan has figured in the imperial designs of regional and international powers for more than two thousand years. From the Mongol invasions of the “civilized” world in the thirteenth century to the U.S. intervention just after the turn of the second millennium CE., the “deep” political history of Afghanistan is described with a view to “locating” the country in a wider political-economic context. Afghanistan's relationship to the great regional empires of Persia, India, and China in the late medieval and early modern periods is discussed, as is its role in “the Great Game” of imperial politics between Russia and British India during the nineteenth century. The regional impact of the Russian Revolution and of efforts to consolidate the USSR are described, as is the rising nationalism and Islamism of the peoples of the region during the final years of the Soviet Union. The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the longer term implications of U.S. support for the mujahiddin – support that ironically contributed to the movement that gave rise to al-Qaida -- are analyzed as the final episodes before 9/11 and the recent dramatic U.S. military and political intervention.     

Textbooks and Patriotic Education: Wartime Memory Formation in China and Japan

The treatment of the wartime period in Japan's history textbooks has long been a subject of debate and controversy, even a source of international tension. Since their creation, history textbooks have been used to shape national identity and encourage patriotism. This article, drawing on the comparative study of high school history textbooks in Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States by Stanford's Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, compares the treatment of the wartime period in the textbooks of China and Japan. The study found that Japanese textbooks are relatively devoid of overt attempts to promote patriotism and that they contain more information about controversial wartime issues such as the Nanjing Massacre than is widely believed. In contrast, Chinese textbooks, particularly after their revision a decade ago, are consciously aimed at promoting a nationalist view of the past as part of the country's “patriotic education” campaign. The article warns, however, against efforts in Japan to promote a Japanese-style version of patriotic education.     

An introduction to the articles on Indonesia

Abstract

In May 1987, general elections will be held in Indonesia. These will be the fifth such elections since the country's independence in 1945, and the contesting parties will be the government electoral organization, GOLKAR, which convincingly won the last elections, the largely Muslim PPP (Unity Development party), and the small Christian and nationalist PDI (Indonesian Democratic party). After the previous elections in 1982, the Indonesian government made the claim that the proceedings had been “direct, general, free and secret,” and indeed it was difficult to find more than incidental evidence of fraud or manipulation in the conduct of the poll itself. However, this attempt by “Pancasila Democracy” to claim kinship with the Western democratic tradition studiously ignored the context of political restriction which has operated in Indonesia for the last three decades. Since such claims are likely to be revised after the coming elections to suggest that the power of the New Order government of President Suharto rests on the active consent of the people, the editors of the Bulletin have thought it appropriate to devote this issue to a closer examination of the recent political history of Indonesia.     

A Leader Without Followers? The Growing Divergence Between the Regional and Global Performance of Brazilian Foreign Policy

Brazilian diplomats and academics alike have long regarded regional leadership as a springboard to global recognition. Yet Brazil's foreign policy has not translated the country's structural and instrumental resources into effective regional leadership. Brazil's potential followers have not aligned with its main goals, such as a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and Directorship‐General of the World Trade Organization; some have even challenged its regional influence. Nevertheless, Brazil has been recognized as an emergent global power. This article analyzes the growing mismatch between the regional and global performance of Brazilian foreign policy and shows how both theoretical expectations and policy planning were “luckily foiled” by unforeseen developments. It argues that because of regional power rivalries and a relative paucity of resources, Brazil is likely to consolidate itself as a middle global power before gaining acceptance as a leader in its region.     

Lao Wisdom as “Buffer State” in an Emerging Mekong Regional Economy – How a Small Country Behaves among Big Countries –

Lao PDR, located in a geopolitically strategic area of the Mekong region, has served as a “buffer state” without being placed under any one country's influence, contributing to the status quo of regional power balance. The skillful balanced diplomacy of Lao PDR has enabled it to keep this position. Yet, in face of growing Chinese presence, how long will that be the case? With an emerging regional economy across borders in the Mekong region as the background, Lao PDR, a small, land-locked country, has achieved relatively high economic growth rates and has started to attract foreign direct investment in recent years. In this process, Japanese companies have started to invest in manufacturing there, and Japan-Laos business partnership has been taking off. Looking for further development, Lao PDR has been consolidating its position as the “battery of the Mekong,” a net exporter of electricity. By improving its connectivity with neighboring countries, Lao PDR has also been making untiring efforts to become a “land-linked” country, aiming to serve as a “logistic hub” for the region, taking advantage of its geopolitical advantage, Yet, many challenges exist before this goal is achieved.     

State vs Federal Government in the “Barmaids” Case: Regulating Australia's Second World War Home Front

Australia's National Security Act of 1939 authorised the federal government to make emergency regulations “for securing the public safety and defence of the Commonwealth [of Australia]”. Further, it instructed the government to decide for itself what might be “necessary or convenient” for the “more effectual prosecution of the present war”. 1 This article examines the authorisation of the civilian leadership through one set of emergency regulations, the National Security (Women's Employment) Regulations, and analyses their functioning through one operational decision, the decision to permit women to serve in South Australian hotel bars with the intention of releasing male bar workers for essential industrial or military employment. Managing the home front proved complex. Sectional interests continued to jockey for positions of influence, even in war conditions. In this case, the state of South Australia sought to protect its “rights” against federal control of employment: a contest fuelled by an ideological squabble about what were then known as “barmaids”. I argue that Australia's centrally‐determined national war goals were undermined by its federal sovereignty‐distribution mechanism, which allowed sub‐national elements such as South Australia to impede national policy, and conclude that even with extensive defence powers to draw on, the federal government's war goals were obstructed by non‐war interests.     

Anti-Royalism in Thailand Since 2006: Ideological Shifts and Resistance

Since the military coup d’état of 2006 and the downfall of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand has experienced chronic political turmoil. Crises of legitimacy expanded to engulf every political institution. This includes the monarchy, usually claimed to be the most “beloved” and “revered” of all institutions, and which has faced widespread anti-royalism since 2006. In this article, it is argued that this recent anti-royalism was neither a well-planned scheme or plot, as claimed by the country’s military junta, nor driven by Marxist or republican ideologies that featured in previous bouts of anti-monarchism. Rather, the new anti-royalism will be shown to have emerged from the royalist hegemony that has been deepened since the late 1970s. Moreover, anti-royalist ideas and expressions have shifted dynamically as society has become more polarised. Thailand’s political conflict is overwhelmingly characterised by contestations over meanings. In this context and in a highly repressive political and legal context, those who wished to challenge royal power used metaphorical ambiguity, jokes, vulgarity and parody on a daily basis. These arts of resistance were reproduced through popular channels which tended to escape state surveillance, for instance, protest songs, poetry, chats at gathering sites, formal and informal speeches, and symbols in both on and offline worlds.     

“Bordering on Treason”? Sir Raphael Cilento and Pre‐Second World War Fascism in Australia

Sir Raphael Cilento died on 16 April 1985 at the age of ninety‐two. The notice in the Canberra Times spoke of Cilento's “worldwide” reputation in tropical medicine, his contribution to the public health service in Queensland, and his role with the United Nations in the immediate post‐war years. In short, he was an “eminent son of Australia”. But Sir Raphael Cilento's halo has been tarnished by his persistent eugenicist beliefs and his later association with the anti‐Semitic League of Rights. There were also lingering allegations and rumours about his apparent pre‐war association with Fascism. Without the evidentiary “smoking gun”, this association has occasionally been alluded to by scholars but never fully examined. Drawing on an unreleased, previously classified security file, this article addresses this question in Cilento's life. Through an examination of what the security service and military intelligence knew of Cilento's activities, the article argues that Cilento was at best an active fellow traveller and at worst a card‐carrying Fascist who narrowly escaped internment.     

Geopolitics and Soft Power: Japan's Cultural Policy and Cultural Diplomacy in Asia

Japan's cultural policy and cultural diplomacy in Asia has changed dramatically over the past one hundred years, from actively introducing and imposing Japanese culture during its empire-building period, to essentially avoiding the promotion of Japanese culture in Asia for most of the postwar period due to fears of being seen once again as engaged in cultural imperialism, and more recently, to supporting and encouraging the export of Japanese contemporary culture and lifestyle in order to attain “soft power.” Looking at the fluctuations in Japan's cultural policy over these three periods allows us to understand how Japan has used cultural policy to further its geopolitical goals and more basically how it has viewed the role of “culture” in the context of its relations with Asian neighbors. In a broader sense, the Japanese experience shows that cultural policy, even when inward-looking, is not isolated from a country's geopolitical position and its ambitions in the world, regardless of the political system under which it operates.     

Reviews

Adopting a comparative historical approach informed by Marxist theory of imperialism, this study demonstrates the tendencies toward conflict between past and present rising and declining imperial powers. In the present context the study compares and contrasts two types of imperialism: a highly militarised US empire based on wars and territorial occupations and a market-driven Chinese empire driven by an alliance of state, foreign and national capital. Both imperial systems are influenced by “overseas” diasporas. In the case of the USA, an internal Zionist power configuration loyal to Israel subordinates Washington's Middle East policies to the economically prejudicial interests of a militarist state (Israel), while in the case of China the overseas diaspora facilitates and promotes investments and trade enhancing China's dynamic economic expansion. The emerging contradictions between and within the two conflicting styles of empire building, point to the need for a social transformation, enhancing the power and position of labour against the Zionised state and speculative economy in the USA and the new plutocrats in China.     

The Rise and Fall of Missile Diplomacy? President Clinton and the “Revolution in Military Affairs” in Retrospect

During the 1990s the “revolution in military affairs” (RMA), which produced “smart” weapons like cruise missiles, came of age. This apparently transformed how America viewed the relationship between force and international relations. It looked like technology was framing foreign policy. In particular, smart weapons enabled President Clinton to combine risk minimization with an expanded security agenda. However, we should be wary of ascribing technological determinism to the conflicts of the 1990s dominated by Washington's flexing of its strategic superiority, such as its bombing of Belgrade. As shown by comparison with post‐“9–11” US strategy, Washington's stance in the 1990s was shaped by linkages between technology and specific political circumstances. As these circumstances changed, so did the RMA's place in US efforts to shape world order.     

“No Colonial Baggage”: Imagining a Decolonised Australia-Africa Relations

As part of its strategy to win African votes for election to the UN Security Council (2008–12), Canberra sought to leverage its soft power potential by presenting Australia as having “no colonial baggage” in Africa while framing Australia as “a country from the Global North, located in the Global South,” and one that would “work with other small and middle powers.” Ultimately, the campaign was successful, including up to 50 of Africa's 54 countries voting for Australia. This paper considers this framing in the context of a shared but differentiated colonial history, including its contradictions, given that Australians fought several wars on African soil on behalf of the British Empire, supported white minority regimes and anti-communist movements on the continent, and maintained the white Australia policy until the 1970s. The paper deploys decoloniality theory to engage Australia's lack of a neat fit within a historicised articulation of a “coloniser-colonised” relationship between Europe and Africa. We show that, despite this lack of fit, Australia's relations with the countries of Africa reinforce long-standing of patterns of knowledge, power, and being associated with colonialism. Accordingly, the paper makes three recommendations for cooperation and innovative thinking in foreign policy and diaspora diplomacy between Africa and a more independent and multicultural Australia based on the “equality of being.”