"金三角"毒情发展现状及我国对策

进入21世纪,全球毒品问题继续泛滥,并呈现出显著的特点,即在海洛因、可卡因贩运和滥用持续增长的同时,出现了冰毒等苯丙胺类兴奋剂毒品在全球流行的强劲势头.据2001年联合国禁毒署最新报告,毒品贩运涉及到170个国家和地区,134个国家和地区出现了毒品消费问题.全世界有1.8亿吸毒者,其中1.44亿吸食大麻,2900万吸食苯丙胺类兴奋剂,1400万吸食可卡因,900万吸食海洛因,450万吸食鸦片.与此相关,毗邻我国的世界最大毒源地之一--东南亚"金三角",毒情也出现了新的发展变化,对我国的危害日益加剧.     

缅甸"金三角"的人文地理与毒品贸易

60年代至70年代,罗星汉和罗星民两兄弟是"金三角"最大的毒枭.80年代冒出了一个臭名远扬的坤沙,取代罗星汉,成为"金三角"的头号大毒枭.90年代正当坤沙的势力日渐式微的时候,又冒出了更多年富力强、神通广大的新毒枭.新的海洛因王国还伴随着前几年缅甸国内发生的两起重大政治事件而兴旺发达起来.自1989年缅共发生内讧导致该地区的内战结束后,原缅共的指挥官和干部获准在缅甸北部地区自由行动.这种自由行动同政府允许他们自由操业的政策结合在一起,使该地区发生了一个明显的变化,那就是毒品加工从比较简单的生鸦片生产工序发展到建立先进的海洛因提炼厂.     

"金三角"毒品形势的变化与国际禁毒合作

世纪之交东南亚"金三角"毒品形势发生了重大变化,表现为毒品产区北移并扩大,毒品生产多元化、合成化,出现新的贩毒集团、贩毒通道和毒品集散地等,从而对周边国家产生了更为严重的危害.金三角次区域国家迫切需要在执法、替代发展、协调机制、资金筹措、情报交换等方面全面加强国际禁毒合作.     

浅议中国与东南亚国家的国际贸易关系

中国与东南亚国家在出口贸易上的关系 ,一直是是经济学界讨论的一个热点问题。根据目前比较流行的两种范式———“雁行模式”和“贸易竞争关系模式” ,对中国与东南亚国家的关系有两种完全不同的解释。目前有一些学者 ,特别是一些国外学者比较倾向于用后一种模式来解释。这种解释从表面上看似乎存在一定道理 ,但若仔细分析中国与东南亚各国的出口市场份额、出口结构及决定各国出口贸易的因素 ,就会得出中国与东南亚各国的经贸关系更大程度上属于产业和技术引进的合作关系。良好的东亚经济关系和经济环境是该地区持续发展的一个根本前提 ,中国与东南亚各国不存在 ,也不应该存在货币贬值的“多米诺骨牌效应” ,东南亚金融危机与中国在九十年代初进行的外贸与汇率制度改革以及人民币汇率的变动根本不具有相关性 ,构建东亚地区贸易及货币协调机制是东亚地区寻求经济发展的一个努力方向。     

Trade and investment in Southeast Asian development

Expansion of foreign trade and investment has been a vital factor underlaying the high economic growth of the Southeast Asian economies over the last ten years. As East and Southeast Asian economies continue to deregulate and prosper, trade and investment flows are becoming increasingly interconnected within the region. The character of this regional economic integration, however, has shifted recently. The role of the Japanese has declined while that of China and the overseas Chinese has boomed. Whereas China has absorbed huge amounts of foreign investment, investment to the Southeast Asian economies appears to be weakening significantly. This weakening of investment is occurring just as many Southeast Asian countries struggle to uppgrade the technical levels of their production of goods and services to accommodate the rising wages and income levels that are fundamental to sustained and broad-based increases in standards of living throughout the region.     

Free Traders and Drug Smugglers: The Effects of Trade Openness on States' Ability to Combat Drug Trafficking

The theoretical literature presents conflicting expectations about the effects of trade openness on the ability of states to interdict drug trafficking. One view expects that trade openness will undermine drug interdiction; a second argues the opposite; a third argues that trade openness does not necessarily affect drug interdiction. This article assesses empirically the effects of trade openness on drug interdiction for countries in the Americas using a pooled time-series cross-sectional statistical model. It finds that trade openness decreases the interdiction capabilities of states in drug-consuming countries while increasing those of states in drug-producing countries. Greater openness to trade does not have a consistently significant effect on the interdiction capabilities of states in drug transit countries.     

Introduction: East Asia's Contested Security Order

East Asia's security environment is changing rapidly. Over the past five years or so, the security order has become increasingly unsettled as it is buffeted by a complex array of forces. The region is entering a period of growing rivalry and animosity states are uncertain over the strategic intentions of great and rising powers, nationalism is an increasingly pervasive force, and military spending has been ramping up in many countries over the past decade. That the security environment is changing is unarguable. But what is the extent of these changes? And what are the implications of these shifts for regional states? This paper introduces the special issue “East Asia's Contested Security Order”. It begins by discussing the broad contours of the changing East Asian security order and what is at stake for regional powers. It then introduces the seven articles in this edition that challenge existing conceptualisations of the East Asian security order, articulate diverse perspectives on that order held by regional, middle and smaller powers, examine their complex and different security strategies that contribute to shaping the regional order, and consider the extent to which the regional security order may be said to be “contested”.     

地域交易圈中的文化互通--评《中国与马来西亚文化交流史》

本文旨在对《中国与马来西亚文化交流史》一书中的若干重要的概念和问题进行评论,特别地,对于以地域交易圈作为文化交流的分析平台、文化交流的向度提出了自己的看法.     

"金三角"禁毒背后的中美泰缅四边关系

早春是罂粟花开的时节.当金三角的罂粟花盛开的时候,小小的金三角却在中南半岛激起了一个不大不小的政治漩涡.为了安抚当地少数民族、巩固边境,缅甸在禁毒中一直采取极为谨慎的姿态;泰国深受缅甸毒品之害,与缅甸还存在领土纠纷,在反毒过程中不得不权衡自己的得失;美国当然重视禁毒,不过对于美国而言,让缅甸现政府倒台或许更重要;中国积极帮助缅甸禁毒,但对于影响边境安宁的迹象却也不得不加以警觉.     

Asia's deepening financial crisis: Japan as a critical uncertainty

Japan's response to the economic crisis in East Asia is critical, not only for Japan itself but also for the Asia‐Pacific region and for the world. Kent Calder, Special Advisor to the US Ambassador to Japan, argues that the massive Japanese economy can potentially serve as a locomotive for the region, and as a sturdy fire wall to prevent the crisis from spreading. To do this, Japan must stimulate its economy, open markets further to Asian imports, and strengthen its financial system. If it fails, Japan could become part of the problem, instead of part of the solution.     

Asia's Regional Security Order: Rules,Power and Status

East Asia's security order is experiencing significant change as it moves from a stable and peaceful geopolitical setting into one of increasingly open contestation. There is no scholarly consensus about the core character of East Asia's old security order, thus making analysis of this period of change especially challenging. The aim of this paper is two‐fold. Firstly, it seeks to provide some order to the broader debate about East Asia's regional security environment. Secondly, it provides a novel account of East Asia's security order that better captures the key dynamics at play in the region than the literature currently does. The paper's first part discusses the different types of security orders identified by scholars and analysts. The second examines the ways in which scholars have attempted to explain East Asia's security order and explores the key forces that they have argued shaped their form. The third part develops a distinctive account of Asia's security order which focuses on the interplay of domestic and international factors and argues that it was the political consensus that existed across the region about its structure and purpose that made the region stable and it is the breakdown of that consensus that is destabilising East Asia today.     

太平洋战争期间日本对东南亚的贸易统制研究

1941年日本在发动太平洋战争的同时,开始对东南亚地区实行贸易统制政策,采取政府出台相关政策、军队和企业具体实施的方针,通过滥发军票等方式,以较低的价格进口东南亚各地的重要资源。日本的贸易统制政策虽然在短期内使日本与东南亚各地之间的贸易急剧增长,但却严重破坏了东南亚各地的产业结构和对外贸易,给东南亚各国造成巨大损失。     

欧美生物燃料战略与东南亚粮食贸易困境

近年来,国际粮食市场出现了剧烈的价格波动,主要粮食品种价格呈现出快速上涨的趋势.OECD和FAO的研究报告指出,导致全球粮食市场行情波动的主要原因是:(1)原油价格高涨引起的联动反应;(2)异常气候变化导致的粮食歉收;(3)生物燃料需求的增加;(4)谷物市场国际投机资金的流入等.其中,欧美的生物燃料发展战略是全球粮价上涨和引发粮食危机的重要诱因.本文通过对欧美生物燃料战略与东南亚粮食贸易的关联性的分析,揭示其对亚洲区域的影响.     

East Asia's new economic integration strategy: Moving beyond the FTA

After the Asian currency crisis, a number of cooperative efforts within an ASEAN?+?3 (APT) framework and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between the countries were implemented side-by-side in East Asia.1 1. ASEAN?+?3 meetings were started in 1997 at the ASEAN 30^th anniversary meeting, to which Japan, Korea, and China were invited. Naturally, the motivation for regional cooperation was heightened in the face of the crisis. View all notes An East Asia Summit is scheduled for the end of 2005. If a summit were held, Japan, China, and Korea would be able to participate in regional cooperation along with ASEAN, as equal partners rather than guests, and the discussion about forming a community, the East Asia Community, would reach a new stage.2 2. The exact definition of “East Asian Community” is not necessarily clear, but at the ASEAN business investment summit in October 2004, Prime Minister Koizumi said in his speech that strengthening FTAs and other economic cooperation, implementing joint economic reforms, and closing the development gap were some of the issues that needed to be addressed when building a community. However, there has not been any discussion about the organization of the East Asian Community, such as establishment of treaties or an office. View all notes However, compared to the largely unobjectionable strengthening of “cooperation,” free trade under an official FTA might require adjusting various economic interests, and there is no guarantee that the merits of free trade will outweigh the costs of these adjustments.3 3. It is well known that WTO Article 24 is essentially an FTA agreement, requiring that “substantially all” trade restrictions be lifted within 10 years, but developing countries are exempt from this particular requirement through an enabling clause. The definition of “substantially all” is itself vague, and because of the enabling clause, the majority of FTAs between developing countries are limited to low-level FTAs. The FTA between China and ASEAN is also subject to an enabling clause. View all notes If for a number of reasons the FTA never goes beyond an APEC-style “voluntarism,” the East Asian economic integration on which the community will be built will be a long time coming. For integration to move steadily forward, a new approach is needed that is different from that of the West and that reflects the political and economic structure of East Asia. This paper addresses the issues and dilemmas that have emerged from the complex FTA negotiations in recent years, and proposes a new integrated approach that reflects the structure of East Asia.     

东南亚农业:可持续发展之路

对东南亚经济发展模式的反思在金融危机之后一度成为热潮 ,东南亚诸国到底是“龙行天下” ,还是“虎落平阳”众说纷纭 ,不一而足。但东南亚国家宏观经济政策对农业发展的损害却已成为一个不争的事实 ,在这一方面国内外的专家学者都有了相当多的论述。在国际农业的研究领域 ,实现可持续发展已是各国的共识 ,但具体国情的差异也使得东南亚国家必须结合本地区的实际来推动本国农业的进一步发展 ,既要克服宏观经济政策对农业所产生的负面影响 ,又要与国际上先进的发展模式接轨 ,走可持续发展的道路 ,这就不得不引起我们的深思与探讨。本文旨在从东南亚的具体国情出发 ,对这一地区的农业发展道路作一些可行性的粗浅分析 ,以期能得到专家学者的批评指正