The Local Voter: A Geographically Weighted Approach to Ecological Inference

Drawing inferences about individual behavior from aggregate ecological data has been a persistent problem in electoral and behavioral studies, in spite of important methodological advances. In a recent article Anselin and Tam Cho (2002) provided Monte Carlo evidence that King's Ecological Inference (EI) solution will produce biased estimates in the presence of extreme spatial heterogeneity. In this article we provide further empirical evidence that supports their findings and shows that in the presence of spatial effects the residuals of Goodman's naïve model exhibit the same spatial structure that King's local  B ^B _i  estimates. Solving for extreme spatial heterogeneity, it is argued here, requires controlling the omitted variable bias expressed in the spatial structure of much ecological data. In this article we propose a Geographically Weighted Regression approach (GWR) for solving problems of spatial aggregation bias and spatial autocorrelation that affect all known methods of ecological inference. The estimation process is theoretically intuitive and computationally simple, showing that a well-specified GWR approach to Goodman and King's Ecological Inference methods may result in unbiased and consistent local estimates of ecological data that exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity.     

Globalisation, Ecological Modernisation and New Labour

Ecological modernisation (EM) provides the principal framework within which environmental policy reform projects are understood. However, writers using the approach, neglect to explain the political contexts within which it is possible to pursue such projects. Specifically, they ignore how discourses of globalisation structure the attempts of states to introduce environmental policy measures consistent with EM agendas. Through an analysis of the UK government's attempts to introduce policies consistent with an EM approach, we show that New Labour's discourse of globalisation acts to create opportunities for EM in some policy arenas and hinder them in others. We examine the development of a renewable energy strategy, the case of genetically modified foods, and transport policy. By specifying conditions under which EM may be pursued, the analysis reveals the potential, but also the limits, of this approach, which attempts to ignore the deep political questions raised by environmental degradation.     

Logical Inconsistency in EI-Based Second-Stage Regressions

The statistical procedure EI–R, in which point estimates produced by the King (1997) ecological inference technique are used as dependent variables in a linear regression, can be logically inconsistent insofar as the assumptions necessary to support EI–R's first stage (ecological inference via King's technique) can be incompatible with the assumptions supporting its second stage (linear regression). In light of this problem, we develop a specification test for logical consistency of EI–R and describe options available to a researcher who confronts test rejection. We then apply our test to the implementation of EI–R in Burden and Kimball's (1998) study of ticket splitting and find that this implementation is logically inconsistent. In correcting for this problem we show that Burden and Kimball's substantive results are artifacts of a self-contradictory statistical technique.     

Using Ecological Inference Point Estimates as Dependent Variables in Second-Stage Linear Regressions

The practice of using point estimates produced by the King ecologicalinference technique as dependent variables in second-stage linearregressions leads to second-stage results that, in general,are inconsistent. This conclusion holds even when all assumptionsbehind King's ecological technique are satisfied. Second-stageinconsistency is a consequence of the fact that King-based pointestimates of disaggregated quantities contain errors correlatedwith the true quantities the estimates measure. Our findingson second-stage inconsistency, as well as a fix that we propose,follow from econometric theory in conjunction with an analysisof simulated and real ecological data sets.     

FREDERICK GOULBURN: THE MAN AND HIS OFFICE

Major Frederick Goulburn's appointment in 1820 as Colonial Secretary and Registrar of the Records of New South Wales was something more than the appointment of just another colonial official. It was also a recognition by the home government, as had been the appointment of a Commissioner of Inquiry the previous year, of the changing character of the colony. Though still predominantly a penal colony, it was no longer that alone but was developing also into a colony of free British settlement with economic potential. "Considering the Importance which the Colony has attained from its rapid Increase in Wealth and Population", wrote Lord Bathurst, Secretary of State for War and Colonies, "His Majesty has thought it adviseable to take this opportunity of placing these officers [Colonial Secretary and Provost Marshall] on the Footing on which they stand in other Foreign Possessions of the Crown"; their Commissions were to be prepared for the King's signature in the usual form.     

Popular initiatives in Uruguay: confidence votes on government or political loyalties?

Among stable democracies, Uruguay is one of the most prodigious users of direct democratic devices at the national level. If we analyze the relationship between the share of “yes” votes received by any popular initiative and the share of votes received by politicians who politically supported it, we observe a strikingly high positive correlation of 0.9. Explaining this correlation is the central objective of this paper. Three alternative hypotheses are plausible: First, such a correlation could be a spurious association due to aggregation bias. Second, PI results could be reflections of economic conditions. Third, Uruguayans are extremely consistent in following their political parties' advice. This paper finds that when Uruguayans go to the polls to vote on a popular initiative, their vote choice is primarily the result of their party loyalty, rather than their reaction to economic conditions. In testing my hypotheses I rely on the following statistical methods: King's “Ecological Inference,” multivariate regression, and path analysis. The data come from seven popular initiatives in Uruguay since 1985 (133 observations).     

Iterative Approaches to R x C Ecological Inference Problems: Where They Can Go Wrong and One Quick Fix

This article argues that a key step in King's iterative approachto R x C ecological inference problems—the aggregationof groups into broad conglomerate categories—can introduceproblems of aggregation bias and multimodality into data, inducingmodel violations. As a result, iterative EI estimates can beconsiderably biased, even when the original data conform tothe assumptions of the model. I demonstrate this problem intuitivelyand through simulations, show the conditions under which itis likely to arise, and illustrate it with the example of Colouredvoting during the 1994 elections in South Africa. I then proposean easy fix to the problem, demonstrating the usefulness ofthe fix both through simulations and in the specific South Africancontext.     

Acts of Faith: Churches and Political Engagement

Many observers suggest that white evangelical Protestant churches serve to mobilize their members into politics, while others argue that they encourage withdrawal from political life. This paper reconciles these two claims. I hypothesize that the time members of evangelical Protestant denominations spend in service to their church comes at the expense of participation in the wider community, contrary to the way mainline Protestant and Catholic churches foster civic activity among their members. However, I further hypothesize that the tight social networks formed through this intensive church activity can at times facilitate rapid and intense political mobilization. Data from the Citizen Participation Study supports the first hypothesis, while applying King's method of ecological inference to two elections in Alabama supports the second.     

Basic Personal Values Underlie and Give Coherence to Political Values: A Cross National Study in 15 Countries

Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.     

Source Cues, Partisan Identities, and Political Value Expression

This article examines the conditions under which partisan identities shape the positions people express on four political values: equal opportunity, self-reliance, moral traditionalism, and moral tolerance. The theoretical framework posits that (1) party source cues activate latent partisan biases in the minds of citizens, which in turn affect the degree to which individuals express support for these values; (2) out-party cues are more powerful motivators of value expression than in-party cues; (3) value shifts are more pronounced when liberal-conservative identities reinforce partisan sentiments; and (4) partisan cues promote horizontal constraint among these values. These hypotheses are tested using data from a set of experiments appearing on a novel national survey. The empirical results generally support these theoretical expectations.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviews in this article:
T he N eeds of S trangers . By M ichael I gnatieff .
H ayek's "S erfdom " Revisited. By N orman B arry et al.
T he P olitics of S ocialism . By J ohn D unn .
T he F uture of the L. Edited by J. C.
S ocialism in a C old C limate . Edited by J ohn G riffith .
U topia on T rial : V ision and R eality in P lanned H ousing . By A lice C oleman , with the Design Disadvantagement Team of the Land Use Research Unit, King's College, London.
T he D evelopment of P lanning T hought : A C ritical P erspective . By C liff H ague .
T he P olitics of L ocal E xpenditure . By K. N ewton and T. J. K arran .
T he P rivate O ffice . By N icholas H enderson .
W orker C o -O peratives in A merica . Edited by R obert J ackall & H enry M. L evin .
L loyd G eorge : F rom P eace to W ar 1912–1916. By J ohn G rigg .
I ncest , A F amily P attern . By J ean R envoize .
C hild S exual A buse W ithin the F amily . Edited by R uth P orter .
I ncest , F act and M yth , by S arah N elson .     

The external costs of foreclosure: The impact of single‐family mortgage foreclosures on property values

Abstract

To measure the impact of foreclosures on nearby property values, we use a database that combines data on 1997 and 1998 foreclosures with data on neighborhood characteristics and more than 9,600 single‐family property transactions in Chicago in 1999. After controlling for some 40 characteristics of properties and their respective neighborhoods, we find that foreclosures of conventional single‐family (one‐ to four‐unit) loans have a significant impact on nearby property values. Our most conservative estimates indicate that each conventional foreclosure within an eighth of a mile of a single‐family home results in a decline of 0.9 percent in value.

Cumulatively, this means that, for the entire city of Chicago, the 3,750 foreclosures that occurred in 1997 and 1998 are estimated to have reduced nearby property values by more than $598 million, for an average of $159,000 per foreclosure. This does not include effects on the value of condominiums, multifamily rental properties, and commercial buildings.     

Merit by Any Other Name—Refraining the Civil Service First Principle

Merit has traditionally served as the foundation of public human resources management (HRM) policy and practice. Today, the concept is more closely associated with compensation (merit pay) than with values that drive behavior in federal HRM. As the Departments of Homeland Security and Defense struggle to create new HRM systems that promote results‐oriented government, the question arises, how does merit inform practice in these new systems? In this article, I identify the values that are influencing federal HRM decision making now and develop a model for merit‐based HRM systems in a less regulated environment through a view from three lenses: the historical evolution of the merit concept in American government, how merit is treated in the law, and how merit has been applied in Title‐5 exempt organizations. This discussion will help to create HRM policies and practices that are grounded in values that managers and employees can embrace and that translate into behaviors that promote both good relationships and results‐oriented performance.     

Mass voting behaviour: the factors that influenced the conservative vote during the 1981 Greek general election

Abstract. This paper examines voting preferences of Greeks during the 1981 general election, based on a public opinion survey. The sample (N = 598) includes three heterogeneous target groups (professionals, labourers and rurals) which represent a broad spectrum of the Greek society. It is hypothesized that Greece is undergoing social and political changes. These changes are measured with an empirical model constructed to employ three sets of indicators. The first set measured the degree and direction of influence on the 1981 conservative vote by objective conditions. The second set measured the degree and direction of the influence of subjective conditions on the same vote. The third set measured the degree and direction of influence of values and issues also on the same vote. The results indicate that both objective and subjective conditions were less important than values and issues. Thus, the influence of some objective factors (such as income or sex) on the conservative vote was either low or inverse. Similarly, the conservative influence of subjective factors (such as family and school) was weak. Instead, modern values and issues are becoming influential.     

The Priorities of Materialist and Post-Materialist Values in the Nordic Countries - a Five-Nation Comparison

The present study takes the theory of post-materialism as a point of departure and compares the priorities of materialist and post-materialist values in the five Nordic countries (Denmark. Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden). The prevalence of political values in different countries is also examined, as is the relationship between materialist and post-materialist values and age, from the perspective of whether generational replacement will contribute to the spread of post-materialist values in the Nordic setting. Post-materialist values are given relatively strong emphasis in the Nordic countries because the mass publics are less concerned with economic security values than those in other Western democracies. The priorities of political values have remained relatively stable at the aggregate level from the late 1970s to 1987, although there has been a slight tendency for the mass publics to become more materialist. In all countries the post-war generations are more likely to support post-materialist values than the older generations. The correlations between age and political values have become somewhat smaller over the last 6–12 years.     

The social dimension of the Single European Market: National versus transnational regulation

Abstract. Labour market regulation in the 1980s was subject to transnational pressures for deregulation, especially in the form of 'flexibilisation'. The 'Single European Market' project (SEM) promises further development in this direction. At the same time, proposals for a 'Social Charter' are meant to introduce a European level of regulation to counteract the SEM's potential destabilizing consequences. However, regulatory disputes and pressures contrary to convergence are likely to be intensified by the SEM. Still further uncertainty will be created by changes in Eastern Europe, as well as by greater opportunities for cross-border production shifts. Neoliberal and neocorporatist variants of the 'competition state' will be increasingly at odds at both state and Community level, with the future of 'social Europe' at stake. To the extent that market integration means a globalisation of the European economy, it may effectively disintegrate its component parts, dividing those which have more solid foundations for growth - the well-regulated, high pay/high productivity areas - from those which do not. The market logic of the Single European Market programme will manifestly contradict the efforts of the Community to avoid this future.     

Attracting future civil servants with public values? An experimental study on employer branding

Abstract

A frequently cited recommendation of public service motivation (PSM) research is to use PSM in the context of HR marketing. However, empirical evidence demonstrating the usefulness of addressing PSM in the recruitment process is limited. Moreover, we know little about the relative importance of PSM for public employers’ attractiveness. We address this gap using an experimental research design to investigate whether public service motivated individuals differ from extrinsically motivated individuals in terms of their attraction to organizations that emphasize either “traditional” public or private values in their employer branding. Our findings indicate that public service motivated individuals are attracted neither to public nor to private values in employer branding. Furthermore, individuals with very high levels of extrinsic motivation are more attracted to private values employer branding than to public values employer branding and to the control group.     

Political culture,postmaterial values,and the new environmental paradigm: A comparative analysis of Canada and the United States

This study investigates the relationship between postmaterial values and the New Environmental Paradigm in Canada (Ontario) and the United States (Michigan). Based on survey data collected among both citizens and environmental activists, it is evident that among both Canadian and American respondents of both citizen and activist type the two value dimensions are similarly multidimensional and separate. Rather than reflecting a single larger dimension of value orientation, as claimed by some, it is clear that the Inglehart postmaterialist value measure and the Dunlap and Van Liere NEP index are separate constructs in the thinking of the Canadians and Americans surveyed. While these findings were parallel in the Canadian and American settings, a number of cross-national differences in how these values influence attitudes and behaviors are reported. In general, these findings underscore the need to continue to focus on variations in the cultural context of citizen responses to postindustrial change.     

How American Core Values Influence Public Policy: Lessons From Federal Aid to Small Business, 1953–1993

Why does the federal government provide aid for small business? This article contends that American core values are one of the sources of small business aid. Rather than taking the values/policy congruence approach of the national values school, it demonstrates a mechanism through which core values have influenced small business aid and through which core values likely influence other policies. The focus is on the processes of policy problem definition. While a role for core values in problem definition processes has been noted previously, core values have neither been a center of attention, nor have the various paths of values influence been linked. Analysis of the problems defined in the legislative histories of 39 systemically selected small business aid enactments, 1953–1993, shows avenues of values influence that have been under-appreciated or not appreciated at all.     

Inconsistent effects of a feature on home prices—lang's two‐market explanation

Abstract

In his 2005 article “Valuing the Suburbs: Why Some ‘Improvements’ Lower Home Prices,” Robert E. Lang proposes an explanation of why improvements to a home may either add to or detract from its value. He suggests a dual housing market: “one for conventional low‐density suburbs, and one for cities and denser suburbs” (8). The former values features implying a natural or less intense use, and the latter values features adding “intensity or utility to a property” (8).

This article reinterprets Lang's explanation as an example of interaction (something having a different effect under one condition than it does under another) arising via summation followed by a nonlinear function of the result. An alternative explanation in terms of the fit between characteristics of a home and its location is also noted.