The risk of detection

The clearance rate is often used as an indicator of the risk of detection, in spite of the fact that these are different matters. This article suggests a method to make estimates of the risk of detection based on information from the Swedish crime statistics. The risk of detection is expressed as a function of the dark figure. Empirical estimates of the risk are given for drunken driving, residential burglary, and assault between strangers. These estimates are followed up with some calculations concerning the impact of crime activity level on the risk of getting caught. One major conclusion of the findings is that the risk of detection varies very moderately with the dark figure. This means that if there is some knowledge of the dark figure, it is often possible to make fairly good estimates of the risk of detection.     

Assessment of prison escape risk

The literature concerning assessment of escape probability in prison inmates appears to be somewhat contradictory: A variety of potential predicator variables have been studied with mixed results. Only four state correctional systems report using a formal risk assessment predictive procedure or instrument (Hinshaw, 1978). Traditional correctional criteria (e.g., length of sentence, violent crimes, sex crimes, etc.) have been found to be of limited, utility at best (Lane & Rans, 1982). Alternative predictor variables which have been examined inchide the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), juvenile history, employment history substance abuse patterns, and marital status.     

Battered women's perceptions of risk versus risk factors and instruments in predicting repeat reassault

This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial logistic regressions, women's perceptions of risk improved prediction with risk factors (ROC area under the curve improved by.04 and sensitivity of repeated reassault increased 12 percentage points). In comparison to simulated risk instruments, women's perceptions by themselves were better predictors than the K-SID, similar in predictive ability to the SARA, and almost as strong as the DAS. The best prediction of repeated reassault was obtained using risk markers, including women's perceptions (ROC AUC =.83; 70% sensitivity) or by using the DAS and women's perceptions together (ROC AUC =.73; 64% sensitivity).     

Developing a theory of dynamic risk

ABSTRACT

The Propensities Model is now the dominant applied conceptualization of dynamic risk factors for sexual offending. In this paper five important limitations of this model are identified: it asserts causality but does not explain it; it does not represent human agency; it offers no account of what is involved in the development of propensities; it does not explain stable change in risk; and its account of the operation of static factors is a theoretical leap not supported by the evidence. A more elaborate theoretical framework is developed by integrating ideas from Ward's Good Lives model, Beck's account of schema modes, and Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action. This more elaborate framework incorporates the Propensities Model in a way that mitigates its limitations. Implications for research, assessment, and rehabilitation are explored.     

The age of risk: risk perception and determination following the Mental Health Act 2007

Reforms to the mental health law framework for England and Wales, which were introduced by the Mental Health Act 2007, are now having a practical effect on day-to-day mental health decision-making. The 2007 Act amends the Mental Health Act 1983, which governs the compulsory hospitalisation and treatment of people with mental disorder; and represents the culmination of a protracted and controversial reform process which has spanned much of the last 15 years. One of the key foci in the 2007 Act is the question of the risk posed by the patient, primarily to others; a result of both the social and political impetus behind the reform process and mounting public anxiety at the management of the mentally disordered. The new Act seeks, as with past legislation, to find the elusive balance between protecting and facilitating the individual's autonomy while also providing an effective framework for the wider public right to protection. The 2007 Act solidifies the dominance of risk by providing a legitimating framework in which risk can be assessed, monitored, and managed. This attitudinal change is demonstrated by the gradual and almost insidious adoption of risk terminology within the practical decision-making setting and the increasing use of risk assessment and management tools. This article is informed by an empirical study which examined individual professional and institutional responses to the mental health legislation in relation to risk. It examines whether the amended legislative framework amplifies risk as an increasingly dominant concern within decision-making. The paper then goes on to consider how decision-makers use risk to assist with their daily roles. Extrapolated from data obtained through the study, several models of risk determination are then discussed. Finally, some thought is given to whether the extension of the risk concept has the potential to become more fundamental within the organisation and legitimisation of mental health care.     

Screening for risk of inpatient violence

A screening checklist for assessing the risk of violence at the time of psychiatric hospitalization was developed. Checklist items and a cutoff point for low versus high risk of violence were selected based on a previous study of statistical prediction of violence. Application of the checklist to a new sample of 338 patients admitted to a university-based inpatient unit revealed promising results in identifying patients who later displayed aggressive behavior in the hospital, as indicated by its positive predictive value (59.0%), negative predictive value (70.6%), sensitivity (57.2%), specificity (70.0%), total predictive value (65.4%), and likelihood ratio (1.97). The results suggest the potential value of incorporating actuarial methods in the evaluation of violence risk.Funded in part by Biomedical Research Support Grant Program grant No. SO7-RR05775 from the Division of Research Resources, National Institutes of Health. Portions of this paper were presented at the Biennial Conference of the American Psychology-Law Society/Division 41 of the American Psychological Association, San Diego, CA, March 12–14, 1992. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Dale E. McNiel.     

Putting risk factors in their place: an evolutionary-developmental approach to understanding risk

ABSTRACT

The assessment of criminal risk plays a prominent role in the criminal justice systems of many different countries and risk assessment is employed in a number of different domains. Given the importance of risk assessment tools in forensic contexts, and the amount of research devoted to evaluating their accuracy in predicting re-offending, it might be expected that risk assessment tools are grounded in our best theoretical understanding of the causal processes that give rise to criminal actions. However, it is not at all clear that this is the case. In this article, I will argue that one important area of neglect is the failure to fully engage with the literature in developmental and life-course criminology which also has directed an enormous amount of effort in to identifying risk factors for offending. At the heart of this neglect, I will claim, is the failure to fully recognise the key distinction between predicting offending and predicting re-offending. I will further argue that an evolutionary developmental perspective provides the theoretical resources to provide fully explanatory accounts of offending and re-offending, and in which risk factors can be appropriately located. I conclude by briefly considering some implications for theory, research, and practice.     

Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.     

Transnational white-collar crime and risk

Research Summary Business transactions have increasingly been crossing national borders, thereby presenting greater opportunities for white-collar crime and for the externalization of risk. The global economic crisis, resulting in part from the subprime mortgage scandal, is a prime example of this potential. To develop theoretical perspectives and practical interventions to prevent and respond to the global financial crisis, we consider similar issues of risk and white-collar crime associated with global transactions in electronic waste (E-waste). Policy Implications Smart (or responsive) regulation is a promising approach for addressing both E-waste and the current economic crisis. This response includes crime prevention, third-party- and self-regulation, and the threat of strong state intervention. Future research should explore the extent to which smart regulation reduces specific forms of white-collar crime and risk, as well as whether these interventions generalize to other transnational problems.     

Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Fear of victimization and sensitivity to risk

The degree to which a crime is feared is dependent not only on the perceived risk of that crime, but also on individuals' sensitivity to risk. We show that sensitivity to risk varies systematically across offenses in proportion to their perceived seriousness. Based on these findings, some general principles about fear are stated, and the relation between this work and some of our earlier work on fear is discussed.     

Why privacy is at risk

Dr Chris Pounder has been professionally involved in delivering data protection services since the time of the Lindop Report in 1978. Here he argues for an express link between the data protection and human rights regimes. Amberhawk is a new company founded by Chris in 2008 with Sue Cullen as the vehicle for the continuation of the information law training business previously operated by Pinsent Masons LLP.     

Rethinking risk in pediatric research

This article reviews four areas of pediatric research in which we have identified questionable levels of allowable risk, exceeding those foreseen by the Commission. They are the following: (1) the categorization of increasingly risky interventions as minimal risk in a variety of protocols; (2) the increasing number of applications for federal panel review of research not otherwise approvable because of higher projected risk levels; (3) research on asymptomatic at risk children; and (4) the inclusion of children and adolescents in placebo-controlled trials for participants of all ages without performing subgroup analysis. While embracing the imperative to include children in research is an encouraging step towards providing the pediatric population with effective medical care and finally eradicating the therapeutic orphan, we must ensure that this research does not become overly permissive.     

A risk marker analysis of assaulted wives

In the wife assault literature, a number of risk markers have been identified. Using the data of the female respondents to the National Family Violence Survey (n = 699), a multivariate analysis was performed to examine which risk factors best differentiated between women involved in nonviolent relationships, verbally aggressive relationships, relationships exhibiting minor physical aggression and severely violent relationships. High levels of marital conflict and lower socioeconomic status emerged as the primary predictors of an increased likelihood of wife assault. Research implications are discussed.