Reply to Mac Giolla and Ly (2019): On the reporting of Bayes factors in deception research

Bayes factors provide a continuous measure of evidence for one hypothesis (e.g., the null, H0) relative to another (e.g., the alternative, H1). Warmelink et al. (2019, Legal Criminol Psychol, 24, 258) reported Bayes factors alongside p‐values to draw inferences about whether the order of expected versus unexpected questions influenced the amount of details interviewees provided during an interview. Mac Giolla & Ly (2019) provided several recommendations to improve the reporting of Bayesian analyses and used Warmelink et al. (2019) as a concrete example. These included (I) not to over‐rely on cut‐offs when interpreting Bayes factors; (II) to rely less on Bayes factors, and switch to ‘nominal support’; and (III) to report the posterior distribution. This paper elaborates on their recommendations and provides two further suggestions for improvement. First, we recommend deception researchers report Robustness Regions to demonstrate the sensitivity of their conclusions to the model of H1 used. Second, we demonstrate a method that deception researchers can use to estimate, a priori, the sample size likely to be required to provide conclusive evidence.     

Statistical Approaches to Type Determination of the Ejector Marks on Cartridge Cases

While type determination on bullets has been performed for over a century, type determination on cartridge cases is often overlooked. Presented here is an example of type determination of ejector marks on cartridge cases from Glock and Smith & Wesson Sigma series pistols using Naïve Bayes and Random Forest classification methods. The shapes of ejector marks were captured from images of test‐fired cartridge cases and subjected to multivariate analysis. Naïve Bayes and Random Forest methods were used to assign the ejector shapes to the correct class of firearm with success rates as high as 98%. This method is easily implemented with equipment already available in crime laboratories and can serve as an investigative lead in the form of a list of firearms that could have fired the evidence. Paired with the FBI's General Rifling Characteristics (GRC) database, this could be an invaluable resource for firearm evidence at crime scenes.     

Bringing Community Based Participatory Research to Domestic Violence Scholarship: an Online Toolkit

In the absence of ongoing involvement in the communities that are the subjects of research, even well-intentioned researchers can develop questions that are not relevant to community needs, employ methods that hurt community members, or disseminate findings in ways that are inaccessible to those most affected. Recognizing these harms, a growing number of domestic violence (DV) researchers have embraced community-based participatory research (CBPR), an approach in which researchers and community members share power at every level of the research process, co-creating knowledge that can be applied to enhance community well-being. Despite growing interest in this approach, however, there are insufficient opportunities for interested researchers to learn how to actually engage in it, especially in the DV context. To remedy this gap, the authors of this paper collaborated to develop an online toolkit for emerging researchers interested in CPBR. This brief report frames the need for CBPR in DV research using short vignettes that come from our own research experience; introduces Power Through Partnerships: A CBPR Toolkit for Domestic Violence Researchers; and presents recommendations for developing, promoting, and disseminating future CBPR research. We chose to announce the development and availability of this toolkit in an academic journal in order to highlight its scholarly and practical relevance for researcher audiences who might be less familiar with the CBPR approach.     

“Bending” Evidence for a Cause: Scholar‐Advocacy Bias in Family Law

There are a number of salient public policy issues in the family law field that have invoked impassioned policy debates on a recurrent basis. In the absence of a body of research to address these critical concerns, advocates under the guise of social science scholarship have exacerbated the confusion and controversy by construing the scant available research evidence to justify their own ends, without regard to the relevance, quality, utility, and limitations of the studies. This is one of two articles on this problem that we have named “scholar‐advocacy bias.” In this article, we discuss the difference between truth in social science and truth in law. We identify common ways in which social science researchers and reviewers of research—wittingly or unwittingly—can become advocates for ideological positions and social policies at the expense of being balanced reporters of research evidence as illustrated by recent debates about overnight parenting of infants and toddlers. We also consider how adherence to established scientific principles and methods prevents the misuse of research in this way.     

Reconciling questions about dichotomizing variables in criminal justice research

Purpose

Despite accumulating evidence against the practice of artificial dichotomization, its continued use among criminal justice researchers indicates that there are still unresolved questions about its appropriateness. Farrington and Loeber (2000) provided a discussion of how these issues impact research on delinquency, and many researchers have cited their article as a justification for dichotomization within the field of criminal justice. In the current study, we examine the reasons why researchers have cited Farrington and Loeber as a mechanism for answering some unresolved questions about whether and when dichotomization may be justified.

Methods

We used a forward citation search in PsycInfo to locate all articles citing Farrington and Loeber (2000) in support of dichotomization.

Results

This search identified 126 articles which provided a total of 191 reasons supporting dichotomization. We explore these reasons, discussing whether they are consistent with evidence from simulation-based analyses and whether they are supported by existing statistical and methodological theory.

Conclusions

Despite the large number of reasons for dichotomization provided by authors, we found very few that had empirical or theoretical support.     

The Effect of Racial Inequality on Black Male Recidivism

Macrostructural opportunity theorists posit that the unequal distribution of economic resources across racial groups promotes animosities among disadvantaged minorities, disrupts community integration, and fosters criminal activity. Guided by this framework, we hypothesize that Black ex‐prisoners who reenter communities with high levels of racial inequality are more likely to commit new crimes. Support for this argument is found for a large group of males (N = 34,868) released from state prisons to 62 counties in Florida over a 2‐year period. We also find evidence that racial inequality amplifies the adverse effects of person‐level risk factors on recidivism for Black ex‐inmates. In comparison, the effect of inequality on White male recidivism is far less meaningful. These findings underscore the need for researchers to consider social context when studying recidivism among Black males, and also support the efforts of correctional reformers who advocate for state resources to assist prisoner reentry.     

Preliminary Observations on the Ability of Hyperspectral Imaging to Provide Detection and Visualization of Bloodstain Patterns on Black Fabrics

Abstract: The analysis of bloodstain patterns can assist investigators in understanding the circumstances surrounding a violent crime. Bloodstains are routinely subjected to pattern analysis, which is inherently dependent upon the ability of the examiner to locate and visualize bloodstain patterns on items of evidence. Often, the ability to properly visualize bloodstain patterns is challenging, especially when the stain patterns occur on dark and/or patterned substrates. In this study, preliminary research was performed to better understand how near‐infrared reflectance hyperspectral imaging (HSI) could be used to observe bloodstain patterns on commonly encountered black fabrics. The ability of HSI to visualize latent bloodstains on several commonly encountered substrates is demonstrated. The images acquired through HSI are of sufficient quality to allow for differentiation between stains produced from an impact mechanism or a transfer mechanism. This study also serves as a proof of concept in the differentiation of multiple staining materials. Because of its ability to generate spectral data, the data provide a preliminary separation of stains where more than one type of stain existed.     

FRIENDS WITH MY FUTURE SELF: LONGITUDINAL VIVIDNESS INTERVENTION REDUCES DELINQUENCY

In a field experiment, we use a novel method to test whether instilling a greater sense of vividness of the future self motivates people to act in a more future‐oriented way and reduces their delinquent involvement. We manipulate vividness of the future self by having participants, a sample of high‐school youth (N = 133), “befriend” an avatar representing their future self on a social network website. For 7 days, they reply to short messages from their future self designed to trigger thinking about that distant self. Using repeated‐measures analysis of variance (ANOVA), we find that participants who had been linked to their future self report less delinquent involvement, whereas controls did not. Furthermore, the results of a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure show that this effect is mediated by changes in vividness of the future self, such that increases in vividness lead to lower self‐reported delinquency. We conclude that vividness of the future self holds promise not only as a cognitive explanation for the failure to make informed cost–benefit trade‐offs but also for interventions aiming to reduce delinquency.     

Scandinavian Prospects for a Place‐Based Randomized Experiment on Burglary Reduction

Despite their widespread implementation, there is a surprising absence of clear‐cut, unambiguous evidence concerning the effectiveness of situational crime prevention approaches (e.g. alarms, neighborhood watch, property‐marking) on residential burglary. This absence of evidence—which should not be confused with a presence of contradictory evidence—stems most notably from the fact that very few of the programs enacted to date have been evaluated under controlled, experimental conditions. The current article describes problems with previous evaluations and advocates the use of a place‐based, randomized experimental design—which this author argues should be easier to implement in Scandinavia than elsewhere.     

A Physical Match of a Metallic Chip Found on a Bolt Cutters’ Blade

Bolt cutters are known as devices which are used for cutting hard objects and rigid materials such as padlocks and bars. They are commonly used in instances of forced entries. In this case study, a bolt cutter was found in the car of two suspects in a grocery burglary. This study indicates how the presence of a small metallic chip found on a suspected bolt cutter can prove that the tool was used in the crime scene. During the initial examination, a metallic chip from the cut shackle padlock was found stuck to one of the bolt cutters’ blades. By comparing the metallic chip's microscopic edge and the breaking (fracture) line of the padlock's shackle, a full physical match was noticed. We wish to report here how residue, even the smallest, can be used to link burglary tools to a crime scene with a high level of certainty.     

Electoral Rules and Party Switching: How Legislators Prioritize Their Goals

Stemming from ambition theory, a vast body of studies has demonstrated how politicians' pursuits of different goals can explain their behaviors. Among other goals, politicians strive for re‐election or to attain a better office. However, little is known about the way politicians prioritize these goals. This article uses the phenomenon of legislative party switching to address this void and examines how hierarchy between goals determines legislator strategies. The study exploits the 2008 Romanian electoral reform, which rendered the electoral system more candidate centered. Drawing on data from more than 3,900 individual‐level observations over the period from 1996 to 2012, this article shows how vote incentives alter the trade‐offs between re‐election and office motivations. The findings suggest that politicians will pursue office goals only if the goal of re‐election is to be achieved.     

Do exchange rate regimes affect the role of central banks as banking supervisors?

We investigate the effect that exchange rate regimes have on the degree of central bank involvement in banking supervision. Using both de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, we find that, conditional on several other factors affecting supervisory power allocation, policymakers are more willing to delegate this task to central banks when the latter are pegging their currency to some kind of parity. This evidence is confirmed when instrumental variables are added, in order to account for possible endogeneity. Results suggest that exchange rate regime features can mitigate the trade offs that political authorities face in evaluating the possibility of assigning supervision to monetary authorities.     

Guardians of access: Local prosecutors and open meetings laws

Open meetings laws have long frustrated access advocates, who allege that prosecutors do little to ensure compliance. The states provide a variety of enforcement powers in their open meetings laws, but powerful anecdotal evidence exists supporting the contention that there is little enforcement.

Prosecutorial discretion plays an obvious, though largely unstudied, role in the enforcement picture. To gain an understanding of the role of statutory language, prosecutorial discretion and other factors on open meetings enforcement efforts, the researchers conducted a national study of the officials responsible for enforcing open meetings laws. The survey offers the first national data on local enforcement activity and the first look at how prosecutors across the country view open meetings laws, illustrating the many weaknesses in current enforcement schemes. The authors argue that the data support the re‐examination of the way access laws are enforced.     

Convenient and Inconvenient Truths in Family Law: Preventing Scholar‐Advocacy Bias in the Use of Social Science Research for Public Policy

This is the second of two articles on the risks of advocacy bias in the reporting of research findings when boundaries are blurred between social science research and advocacy in the pursuit of public policy. In the first article we identify common ways in which social science researchers and reviewers of research—wittingly or unwittingly—can become advocates for ideological positions and social policies at the expense of being balanced reporters of research evidence. The first article discusses the difference between truth in social science and truth in law and identifies a range of scholar‐advocacy strategies that bias research evidence, illustrated by recent debates about overnight parenting of infants and toddlers. In this second article we show how biased research evidence by scholar advocates results in increased confusion and controversy that diminishes the credibility of all parties and stalemates progress in the field, using a case illustration of intimate partner violence in family court. We also show how adherence to scientific methods prevents the misuse of research and suggest a number of collaborative, integrative measures that can help transcend the adversarial stalemate. In a look to the future we consider some unbiased, standardized ways of assessing the strength and generalizability of research evidence.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

To Rehabilitate or Not to Rehabilitate

In this article, we review the recommendations on corrections made by the U.S. President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice under President Johnson in 1967 and compare these with the changes made in U.S. corrections over the past 50 years. Shortly after the Commission completed its report, dramatic changes occurred that impacted correctional policy and practice as support for law and order and correctional control moved corrections far from the Commission's recommendations for rehabilitation. The results of this research demonstrate that these approaches have not solved the nation's crime problems and have imposed hardships on individuals and communities. A current focus on evidence‐based corrections may provide a model for future decision making depending on whether the “times are ripe” for a return to a philosophy of rehabilitation. Any new commission will benefit from the research evidence that points to successful correctional interventions. Yet, there is much that still needs to be studied and learned. A new commission must be aware of and respond to the broader social conditions and beliefs and opinions of policy makers and the public that will influence receptivity to correctional reform. Recommendations should include clear guidelines for how research findings could be used to answer the still unanswered questions about rehabilitation interventions, as well as for how to ensure quality program delivery and public safety.     

Measuring the real impact of accredited offending behaviour programmes

Purpose. This paper describes an integrated model for the evaluation of offending behaviour programmes in order to assess their real impact. Arguments. To date there has been an over‐reliance on reconviction data as the sole measure of treatment efficacy. Reconviction has a fundamental role to play but cannot be considered in isolation from other empirically related treatment and re‐settlement factors. A rigorous reconviction study requires an adequate comparison group but few papers describe with transparency how this has been achieved. There is also the assumption that participation in treatment renders an individual offender as treated. A treated profile is contingent upon the treatment climate, the quality of programme delivery and how the individual responds to treatment. The influence of life‐style or dynamic risk factors must also be acknowledged in terms of their effect on reconviction. Conclusions. It is recommended that researchers use an integrated approach to the evaluation of accredited offending behaviour programmes. In order to establish a broad balance of treatment outcomes, a shift away from reconviction rates is needed. This paper presents an integrated model for the evaluation of offending behaviour programmes.     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

INSTITUTIONAL INEFFECTIVENESS,ILLEGITIMACY, AND PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR VIGILANTISM IN LATIN AMERICA

Why do individuals or groups support vigilantism as a means of conflict resolution? Most researchers tend to agree that support for and participation in vigilantism occurs in “stateless locations,” that is, when formal justice institutions are weak or absent. Despite this general consensus, quantitative evidence of this relationship is limited to a handful of country‐specific studies that used only subjective survey‐based measures of institutional weakness. This study seeks to extend research on vigilantism by assessing the relationship between subjective and objective conditions of formal justice institutions and public support for vigilantism across 323 provinces in 18 Latin American countries by using the 2012 AmericasBarometer Survey. Specifically, this study uses multilevel logistic regression techniques to examine the variability of public support for lethal vigilantism within and across Latin American countries. When controlling for a wide range of potential confounds, the results show that the most robust predictors of support for violent vigilantism are subjective indicators of institutional illegitimacy, personal victimization, and punitive attitudes. Evidence also exists that objective insecurity, as measured by province‐level homicide rates, fosters public support for violent vigilantism in certain situations.     

Using Outcome Measurement to Promote Continuous Quality Improvement for Children in Foster Care

Continuous Quality Improvement is the term used to measure progress toward achieving safety, permanency, and well‐being for children in foster care. This report highlights the results of a 2014 survey conducted by the National Resource Center on Legal and Judicial Issues asking states to identify how they are using performance measures to improve the lives of children in care, which measures are being used, whether the newly‐created well‐being measures are being integrated into the original set of court performance measures, and how performance measures are being used to support Continuous Quality Improvement. Although there is much more to do, the number of performance measures being used, the number of states sharing data between courts and child welfare agencies, and the number of documented examples of improvement in lives of abuse and neglected children are all encouraging signs.