Retirement outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study

This article examines retirement outcomes in the first four waves of the 1992-1998 Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Measured retirement is seen to differ, sometimes substantially, with the definition of retirement used and among various groups analyzed. Moreover, those differences vary with the wave of the survey as respondents age. Retirement comprises a complex set of flows among states representing nonretirement, partial retirement, and complete retirement. Using the self-reported definition of retirement, 77 percent of transitions continue in the same or equivalent states between adjoining waves of the HRS, 17 percent involve a move from greater to lesser labor force participation, and 6 percent involve a move from lesser to greater labor force participation. Twenty-two percent of the sample report they were partially retired at some time in the first four waves, and by age 65, over a fifth of the population is partially retired. Altogether, 17 percent of the sample experienced a reversal in the course of the survey, moving from a state of less work to a state of more work. A comparison of retirement flows for men between the HRS and the 1969-1979 Retirement History Study (RHS) shows that the large spike in the population leaving nonretirement at age 65 observed in the 1969-1979 RHS has fallen from 18 to 11 percentage points in the HRS and that the share leaving nonretirement at 62 has increased from 13 to 20 percentage points over time. The results presented here should help researchers improve their understanding of the structure of the dependent variable in retirement studies. Incorrect or arbitrary measurement of the retirement variable may lead to a misunderstanding of how Social Security and related policies affect retirement outcomes. Thus, the improved understanding of retirement gained from this research will be helpful to those designing retirement policies as they attempt to understand the effects of those policies.     

Income changes at and after Social Security benefit receipt: evidence from the Retirement History Study

This article details the changes in total income and the composition of its sources that occur upon initial receipt of Social Security benefits, and in the first 4 years thereafter. The study shows that, for many persons, "retirement" is a gradual process rather than an immediate cessation of all paid work. About half the persons entering the rolls continue at least some paid employment after benefit receipt. Even more do so if previous earnings were low or if they have no pension to supplement their benefits. In real terms, the average couple initially loses about one-third of its previous income, while nonmarried women, with less to begin with, lose somewhat less. In the time period studied, inflation was high in historical terms: the Consumer Price Index rose by approximately one-third in the 4-year period following benefit receipt. During that time, the real income of beneficiaries declined by about 10 percent from the levels immediately after benefit receipt. Fewer beneficiaries continued to work 4 years later, so earnings played a smaller role in total income. The real value of private pensions declined by about 20 percent in the 4-year period, but because most persons with such pensions had other, better-protected sources of income, their total income declined by less than 10 percent.     

Behavioral and psychological aspects of the retirement decision

The majority of research on the retirement decision has focused on the health and wealth aspects of retirement. Such research concludes that people in better health and those enjoying a higher socioeconomic status tend to work longer than their less healthy and less wealthy counterparts. While financial and health concerns are a major part of the retirement decision, there are other issues that may affect the decision to retire that are unrelated to an individual's financial and health status. Judgment and decision-making and behavioral-economics research suggests that there may be a number of behavioral factors influencing the retirement decision. The author reviews and highlights such factors and offers a unique perspective on potential determinants of retirement behavior, including anchoring and framing effects, affective forecasting, hyperbolic discounting, and the planning fallacy. The author then describes findings from previous research and draws novel connections between existing decision-making research and the retirement decision.     

Retirement income security in the United Kingdom.

This article examines the U.K. retirement income security system from the American perspective. It addresses issues that most concern U.S. analysts: how the United Kingdom has kept its future public pension costs at a manageable level, the extent to which privatization of public pensions has contributed to low pension costs, the popular appeal of individual pension accounts, and the impact of privatization on retirement income. These issues are best understood in the context of the U.K. pension program's particular institutional structure and policies, two of which--"contracting out" of public pensions, and strong reliance on means-tested benefits--have been largely rejected in the evolution of U.S. policy to date. Particular use is made of recently available data on coverage rates for public and private pension programs over the total working population and administrative records on inactive personal pension accounts.     

Lewis Feuer and the Study of American Jewish History

From 1976–1988, Lewis Feuer produced a series of significant papers in American Jewish History dealing with such subjects as Harry Wolfson, Joachim Gaunse, the history of Jews in the American academy, James Joseph Sylvester, and more. In each case, Feuer glimpsed himself in what he studied. He selected and viewed his subjects from the perspective of his own life, values and intellectual concerns.     

Heterogeneity and the calculus of turnout: Undecided respondents and the campaign dynamics of civic duty

Accounts of turnout often maintain that citizens participate in elections because the expressive, instrumental and normative benefits associated with the act of voting outweigh the respective costs. Although the impact of those benefits has been empirically assessed in many studies, we know little about when and for whom this impact is stronger. To this end, this paper examines 1) how the effect of those benefits and particularly that of civic duty increases over the election campaign and 2) whether this increase can be attributed to voter heterogeneity. Survey respondents who have not yet decided how they are going to vote will be increasingly swayed to cast a vote on the basis of their civic duty and not other predictors of turnout. The empirical hypotheses are being tested by utilising recent rolling cross-section election studies from Britain. The results suggest that the influence of civic duty on turnout is stable for decided but increases for undecided voters the closer the election day looms.     

卡西尔历史观研究

在卡西尔看来,历史作为一种特殊的人类文化,存在一个更高的秩序,将一个个偶然的现实串联成我们熟知的历史。这个秩序就是人自我认识形式的归复与统一。真正的历史学以揭示人类生活及人类文化为目的,具有回顾和展望的双重意义,有助于人认识自我,回归人的世界。但卡西尔的历史观同样存在忽视偶然性因素、消解个人能动性的问题。历史学的研究,必须是围绕"人"开展的。福柯的结构主义历史方法是对其有效的补充。     

Representation, Voluntary Retirement, and Shirking in the Last Term

There is disagreement over whether or not representatives shirk.Previous studies, however, have used raw interest group scores thatdo not allow for accurate comparisons over time. I take advantageof recently published indexed ADA scores by Groseclose, Levitt, andSnyder (1999) that adjust for temporal differences to test forshirking. I compare results from adjusted ADA scores to Poole andRosenthal's Nominate scores. With a simple, straightforward test ofdyadic representation, I provide additional evidence that shirkingexists among voluntarily retiring members of Congress.     

斯金纳思想史研究中的修辞理论

剑桥学派代表人物昆廷·斯金纳突破传统的思想史研究方法,从观念史转向概念史,从文本转向修辞,在思想史研究中逐渐形成一套比较系统的修辞理论.斯金纳认为思想家在写作文本时,通过运用各种修辞战略对概念进行重新定义,以此表达和强化自己的观点.在他看来,修辞介入了思想史,是思想史不可或缺的组成部分.只有在修辞视野下的思想史研究,才能更贴近文本,更准确地理解思想家的思想.     

Tax impact from elimination of the retirement test

The OASI eligibility provisions include a retirement test (or earnings test), and in 1979 aged beneficiaries who are under age 72 give up $1 in current benefits for each $2 of annual earnings above $4,500. If the retirement test were eliminated, total OASI payouts would increase because aged workers would no longer forfeit benefits. Aged workers also might increase earnings or delay retirement if this penalty on work effort were removed. Increased earnings would generate additional OASDHI taxes and individual income taxes. This article examines the fiscal effects on OASI benefit payouts and increased tax receipts if the retirement test were eliminated.     

延迟退休的适用性矩阵:对不同行业和岗位的分析

延迟退休涉及每个就业者的切身利益,对其的众说纷纭反映了不同行业以及从事不同工作的人们的态度,也将直接影响延迟退休政策的具体实施.延迟退休的适用性矩阵,充分考虑人的社会性和复杂性,以可支配资源和工作强度为坐标,通过四个象限区分了延迟退休对不同行业的适用性强弱,并进一步区分了延迟退休对企业内部不同岗位的适用性.通过对770份有效问卷数据的交叉分析,验证了依据适用性矩阵模型而得出的分析结论与现实的一致性,发现不同岗位的职级变化所呈现出的延迟退休适用性的“U型”变化关系.研究客观地反映了货币成本以外的因素在行业和岗位层面对延迟退休适用性的影响,及其对企业人力资源管理六大模块带来的积极和消极影响,可为政策制定者和企业管理者提供科学参考.     

Politics and personal factors in retirement from the United States Supreme Court

A vacancy to be filled on the Supreme Court is a relatively rare event; continuity of service is the norm. In this paper I determine the circumstances under which justices decide to retire and, by extension, why they remain on the bench. Using a discrete-time method I find that political considerations do not appear to matter. Justices are more likely to retire when they are physically infirm and have qualified for pension benefits. But the more justices participate in the Court's activity, as evidenced by the number of opinions or dissents they write, the less likely they are to leave voluntarily.     

Evaluating the initial impact of eliminating the retirement earnings test

Under the retirement earnings test, Social Security benefits are reduced if earnings exceed specified amounts, although the benefit reduction is partly offset by future benefit increases. By imposing a tax on the earnings of beneficiaries, the earnings test provided a disincentive for them to supplement retirement income by working. The Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act of 2000 eliminated the earnings test for Social Security beneficiaries who have reached the full retirement age. This article presents the first study of labor force activity (earnings and employment) among individuals aged 65-69 before and immediately after this sudden rule change. Drawing on Social Security administrative data, the author examines three widely expected reactions: increased return to work, increased hours worked, and accelerated applications for old-age benefits. The analysis finds that removing the retirement earnings test: Encouraged some workers to increase their earnings. The increases in earnings are large and significant among higher earners but are not statistically significant among lower earners. Had little effect on employment. Removing the earnings test appears to have had no immediate, significant effect on the employment rate of older workers. Employment of older people may be affected in the longer run, however. Slightly increased the pace of applications for benefits. Applications rose about 2 percent in the 65-69 age group in 2000. The overall acceleration will probably be small, however, because most individuals in this age group apply for benefits before reaching the full retirement age. Although the current analysis captures the effects of retaining older workers in the labor force, these initial results may not capture all the effects of eliminating the retirement earnings test, however, for two reasons. First, the analysis covers only a single year--the year the earnings test was eliminated. Since eliminating the earnings test may have had little effect on people who had already retired, its full effect may not be apparent for several years. Second, the analysis applies only to workers aged 65-69. Eliminating the earnings test for people above the full retirement age may also encourage younger workers to delay retirement and therefore increase their labor supply. Further analysis will therefore be required to determine the longer-run impact of eliminating the retirement earnings test.     

"历史向'世界历史'转变"的过程与环节——兼论"唯物史观"对社会历史解释的主线和界域

"历史向‘世界历史'的转变"是马克思、恩格斯论证"唯物史观"最重要的论据之一.在<德意志意识形态·费尔巴哈>章"未誊清稿Ⅲ"开头的两个片段中,他们详尽地描述了由城乡分离→行会制度的建立→商人作为一特殊阶层的出现→工场手工业的产生→人口跨国度的迁徙和"流浪"→"商业和工场手工业集中于一个国家的现象"→大工业的发展与垄断等各个环节次第过渡的历史进程.正是对这些细节的描摹和勾勒昭示出"唯物史观"的思维主线、思考重点、擅长领域和诠释界域,更提供了我们透视招致其之后坎坷命运的内在理论根由.因此,不应该把"唯物史观"对历史的解释简单化、极端化.     

关于现、当代中国历史研究中的知识分子问题

知识分子问题作为中国现代和当代历史研究中的一个重要问题,一直为学术界所关注,特别是自20世纪80年代以来,越来越多的学者对该问题发生了愈来愈浓厚的兴趣,推出一批研究成果,其中的成绩有目共睹,存在的问题当然亦需反思和总结.笔者在这里想围绕该问题研究中的范式转换谈一些自己的看法.     

Voter participation and the redistributive state

The redistributive theory of the state implies that voter participation rates should be highest among those who have the most to gain or lose or a V-shaped relationship between income and voting participation should exist. We use a data set that contains nearly 21,000 observations on individual survey responses about voting behavior in the U.S. between 1972 and 1993 to show that the participation rate generally rises monotonically with income, perhaps except at very high income levels. It does report other findings consistent with an economic theory of voting based on returns to association and with the hypothesis that public employees vote more.