Cognitive forensics and experimental research about bias in forensic casework

Understanding and coping with cognitive bias in forensic science requires multiple studies, utilizing both laboratory-based experiments and data from casework. Neither type of studies has ever been conducted to examine bias in mixture DNA interpretations. A study that includes both types of data has recently been published in Science and Justice. The data and statistical analysis clearly — at the very least — suggest that bias may potentially influence DNA mixture interpretation. This is due, in part, to the subjective elements in interpretation of mixture DNA. The issue of bias and other cognitive influences is of a sensitive nature and presents complex experimental challenges. Our study takes a step in examining these issues and calls for more research.     

Error and exaggeration in the presentation of the significance of a DNA match in criminal trials in Malaysia

DNA evidence is now widely used in criminal trials across jurisdictions, including Malaysia. One important issue to be considered is how the significance of a DNA match that uses statistical calculations should be presented and explained in a criminal trial. This article demonstrates how the presentation of the significance of a DNA match in criminal trials in Malaysia has been tainted with error, exaggeration and bias towards the prosecution case based on the reference to case law. It also provides recommendations in order to ensure that the significance of a DNA match is properly presented in the criminal trials in Malaysia.     

Validating TrueAllele® DNA mixture interpretation

Abstract: DNA mixtures with two or more contributors are a prevalent form of biological evidence. Mixture interpretation is complicated by the possibility of different genotype combinations that can explain the short tandem repeat (STR) data. Current human review simplifies this interpretation by applying thresholds to qualitatively treat STR data peaks as all‐or‐none events and assigning allele pairs equal likelihood. Computer review, however, can work instead with all the quantitative data to preserve more identification information. The present study examined the extent to which quantitative computer interpretation could elicit more identification information than human review from the same adjudicated two‐person mixture data. The base 10 logarithm of a DNA match statistic is a standard information measure that permits such a comparison. On eight mixtures having two unknown contributors, we found that quantitative computer interpretation gave an average information increase of 6.24 log units (min = 2.32, max = 10.49) over qualitative human review. On eight other mixtures with a known victim reference and one unknown contributor, quantitative interpretation averaged a 4.67 log factor increase (min = 1.00, max = 11.31) over qualitative review. This study provides a general treatment of DNA interpretation methods (including mixtures) that encompasses both quantitative and qualitative review. Validation methods are introduced that can assess the efficacy and reproducibility of any DNA interpretation method. An in‐depth case example highlights 10 reasons (at 10 different loci) why quantitative probability modeling preserves more identification information than qualitative threshold methods. The results validate TrueAllele^® DNA mixture interpretation and establish a significant information improvement over human review.     

The role of DNA in criminal indictments in Israel

In their investigations of criminal cases, law enforcement agencies rely heavily on forensic evidence. Numerous studies have examined the scientific and technological advancements of DNA testing, but little evidence exists on how the availability of DNA evidence influences prosecutors' decisions to move cases forward in the criminal justice system. We created a new database by juxtaposing data from the Forensics Division of the Israel Police, which recorded the presence (or not) of DNA profiles in criminal cases (n = 9862), and data on the indictment decision for each case (2008–2019). Rates of indictments are computed for each case, and trend lines are used to present variations in the rates of indictment decisions with and without DNA profiles. Approximately 15% of all criminal cases without DNA presented to the prosecutor's office are subsequently prosecuted, compared with nearly 55% of cases with DNA profiles. The presence of DNA evidence influences the prosecutor's decision to move a case forward in the criminal justice system. Utilizing a scientific approach to prosecute offenders is a welcome development; however, DNA evidence is not infallible, and caution must be exercised in regard to DNA's overuse in the legal system.     

Cognitive bias in forensic anthropology: Visual assessment of skeletal remains is susceptible to confirmation bias

An experimental study was designed to examine cognitive biases within forensic anthropological non-metric methods in assessing sex, ancestry and age at death. To investigate examiner interpretation, forty-one non-novice participants were semi randomly divided into three groups. Prior to conducting the assessment of the skeletal remains, two of the groups were given different extraneous contextual information regarding the sex, ancestry and age at death of the individual. The third group acted as a control group with no extraneous contextual information. The experiment was designed to investigate if the interpretation and conclusions of the skeletal remains would differ amongst participants within the three groups, and to assess whether the examiners would confirm or disagree with the given extraneous context when establishing a biological profile. The results revealed a significant biasing effect within the three groups, demonstrating a strong confirmation bias in the assessment of sex, ancestry and age at death. In assessment of sex, 31% of the participants in the control group concluded that the skeleton remains were male. In contrast, in the group that received contextual information that the remains were male, 72% concluded that the remains were male, and in the participant group where the context was that the remains were of a female, 0% of the participants concluded that the remains were male. Comparable results showing bias were found in assessing ancestry and age at death. These data demonstrate that cognitive bias can impact forensic anthropological non-metric methods on skeletal remains and affects the interpretation and conclusions of the forensic scientists. This empirical study is a step in establishing an evidence base approach for dealing with cognitive issues in forensic anthropological assessments, so as to enhance this valuable forensic science discipline.     

How Cross‐Examination on Subjectivity and Bias Affects Jurors’ Evaluations of Forensic Science Evidence

Contextual bias has been widely discussed as a possible problem in forensic science. The trial simulation experiment reported here examined reactions of jurors at a county courthouse to cross‐examination and arguments about contextual bias in a hypothetical case. We varied whether the key prosecution witness (a forensic odontologist) was cross‐examined about the subjectivity of his interpretations and about his exposure to potentially biasing task‐irrelevant information. Jurors found the expert less credible and were less likely to convict when the expert admitted that his interpretation rested on subjective judgment, and when he admitted having been exposed to potentially biasing task‐irrelevant contextual information (relative to when these issues were not raised by the lawyers). The findings suggest, however, that forensic scientists can immunize themselves against such challenges and maximize the weight jurors give their evidence by adopting context management procedures that blind them to task‐irrelevant information.     

The forensic examination of structural fires in Victoria,Australia: Decision-making processes and impact on judicial outcomes

There is a body of published research that has evaluated the contribution of forensic science to the criminal justice system, but many disciplines of forensic science remain unexplored in this regard. The aim of this study was to examine the contribution that forensic fire examination services provide to criminal investigations and court processes in arson cases. Forensic fire examination services differ in a number of ways to the disciplines covered in previous research on the impact of forensic evidence on justice outcomes. Forensic fire examinations involve a combination of scene examination and laboratory analyses, and the results can provide critical evidence of whether an incident that has occurred is a criminal offence (i.e. whether a fire has occurred as the result of an act of arson). Forensic fire examination is also a discipline that has faced challenges and undergone development in recent decades regarding its scientific basis and the issue of contextual bias. In this study, data were collated for 273 structural fires that were examined by the forensic fire services in Victoria, Australia. In this jurisdiction, scene and laboratory forensic services are delivered within short time frames with a focus on providing impartial scientific and investigative services to assist criminal investigations conducted by police. The current dataset was highly skewed in terms of criminal justice outcomes and was not suitable for conducting the planned statistical analyses. Nonetheless, the pattern of findings obtained suggested that the inclusion of forensic evidence which supported the prosecution of arson may be associated with an increased likelihood of suspects being charged and defendants found guilty. Examination of the decision-making process of the forensic fire examiners has provided insight into the variety of evidence that is considered by forensic experts in reaching the important conclusion about the origin and cause of structural fires.     

SENTENCING IN CONTEXT: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS

Criminal sentencing is, along with arresting and prosecuting, among the most important of formal social control decisions. In this study we use hierarchical modeling to test hypotheses about contextual level influences and cross level interaction effects on local court decisions. Most of the explanatory "action," our analysis shows, is at the individual case level in criminal sentencing. We also find evidence that local contextual features–such as court organizational culture, court caseload pressure, and racial and ethnic composition–affect sentencing outcomes, either directly or in interaction with individual factors. We conclude by discussing theoretical implications of our findings, and how our study points out some dilemmas among civil rights, local autonomy and organizational realities of criminal courts.     

NEGOTIATION AND PLEA BARGAINING MODELS: An Organizational Perspective

This article assesses the contributions to our understanding of plea bargaining made by economic and decision-theory models of criminal justice decision-making. The author introduces an organizational interpretation of plea bargaining and critiques two of the more prominent attempts at formal modeling of the criminal process. Empirical evidence, gathered by others, is reanalyzed to compare the relative explanatory power of these formal models in determining patterns of choice among negotiative and adversary dispositions in two urban felony jurisdictions. The article concludes with the assertion that economic and decision-theory models present an insightful but essentially distorted view of criminal justice decision-making. An appreciation for contextual factors, emphasized in organization theory, is necessary for grasping the reality of the criminal process and for shaping meaningful reform.     

The effectiveness of forensic evidence in the investigation of volume crime scenes

This study investigates the effectiveness of forensic evidence in UK volume crime investigations. The main aim was to identify characteristics of forensic evidence that influence its effectiveness in converting detections into criminal charges, as well as to critically consider the effectiveness of a recent service level agreement (SLA) implemented by Wiltshire Police, which aimed at reducing CSI attendance. The sample consisted of 445 police recorded cases received from Wiltshire Police. Presence or absence and location-related characteristics of fingerprint, DNA, and footwear evidence were evaluated on the effectiveness of forensic evidence and examined within the contexts of different volume crimes. Results showed a high level of correlation in converting detections into criminal charges where the presence of DNA, footwear, and multiple evidence types was recorded; and a positive correlation between forensic evidence ineffectiveness and presence of fingerprints, particularly in residential burglaries. Differences between individual offence types were expressed. The most prominent feature influencing the effectiveness of forensic evidence was found to be related to the movability of the exhibit associated with the recovered evidence, with DNA recovered from non-movable items presenting the strongest effectiveness. Cases processed after the implementation of the SLA did not show significant differences in forensic evidence effectiveness as compared to cases processed prior to the SLA, however, they demonstrated a lack in effectiveness of DNA evidence. The findings of the current research provide a better understanding of the contextual influences on the potential of forensic evidence and can support improvement of crime scene screening and CSI resource deployment.     

Analysis of Mitochondrial DNA from a Burned,Ninhydrin‐Treated Paper Towel

Contact‐based evidence is likely to have limited quantities of DNA and may yield mixed profiles due to preexisting or contaminating DNA. In a recent arson investigation, a paper towel was collected and used as circumstantial evidence. The paper towel was partially burned and was likely set on fire with flammable liquid. As part of the investigation, the paper towel was treated with ninhydrin to visualize fingerprint evidence. Initial DNA analysis of two swabs was negative for short tandem repeat (STR) markers and revealed a mixture of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Analysis of 13 additional cuttings yielded four more mixed profiles, but also two samples with a common single‐source profile. The single‐source mtDNA profile matched that of the primary suspect in the case. Thus, even if initial mtDNA analysis yields a mixed profile, a sampling strategy involving multiple locations can improve the chance of obtaining valuable single‐source mtDNA profiles from compromised evidence in criminal casework.     

刑事主观事实的证明问题初探

刑事主观事实的证明是一个世界性难题,仅靠口供等直接证据证明往往不够。间接证据证明和刑事推定是目前通行的两种有效方法,但我国的刑事立法和司法解释没有明确区分二者。间接证据体系的证明标准过高和间接证据不能单独直接证明主要案件事实共同导致间接证据证明的适用范围很有限．相应地可考虑降低证明标准和改变传统做法。刑事推定是另一种重...     

Does contextual information bias bitemark comparisons?

A growing body of research suggests that the interpretation of fingerprint evidence is open to contextual bias. While there has been suggestion in the literature that the same might apply to bitemarks – a form of identification evidence in which a degree of contextual information during the comparison phase is generally unavoidable – there have so far been no empirical studies to test this assertion. We explored dental and non-dental students' ability to state whether two bitemarks matched, while manipulating task ambiguity and the presence and emotional intensity of additional contextual information. Provision of the contextual information influenced participants' decisions on the ambiguous bitemarks. Interestingly, when participants were presented with highly emotional images and subliminally primed with the words ‘same’ and ‘guilty’, they made fewer matches relative to our control condition. Dental experience also played a role in decision-making, with dental students making more matches as the experiment progressed, regardless of context or task ambiguity. We discuss ways that this exploratory research can be extended in future studies.     

New York State TrueAllele® Casework Validation Study

DNA evidence can pose interpretation challenges, particularly with low‐level or mixed samples. It would be desirable to make full use of the quantitative data, consider every genotype possibility, and objectively produce accurate and reproducible DNA match results. Probabilistic genotype computing is designed to achieve these goals. This validation study assessed TrueAllele^® probabilistic computer interpretation on 368 evidence items in 41 test cases and compared the results with human review of the same data. Whenever there was a human result, the computer's genotype was concordant. Further, the computer produced a match statistic on 81 mixture items (for 87 inferred matching genotypes) in the test cases, while human review reported a statistic on 25 of these items (30.9%). Using match statistics to quantify information, probabilistic genotyping was shown to be sensitive, specific, and reproducible. These results demonstrate that objective probabilistic genotyping of biological evidence can reliably preserve DNA identification information.     

Testing for Potential Contextual Bias Effects During the Verification Stage of the ACE‐V Methodology when Conducting Fingerprint Comparisons*

Abstract: This study was conducted to assess if fingerprint specialists could be influenced by extraneous contextual information during a verification process. Participants were separated into three groups: a control group (no contextual information was given), a low bias group (minimal contextual information was given in the form of a report prompting conclusions), and a high bias group (an internationally recognized fingerprint expert provided conclusions and case information to deceive this group into believing that it was his case and conclusions). A similar experiment was later conducted with laypersons. The results showed that fingerprint experts were influenced by contextual information during fingerprint comparisons, but not towards making errors. Instead, fingerprint experts under the biasing conditions provided significantly fewer definitive and erroneous conclusions than the control group. In contrast, the novice participants were more influenced by the bias conditions and did tend to make incorrect judgments, especially when prompted towards an incorrect response by the bias prompt.     

DNA mixture genotyping by probabilistic computer interpretation of binomially-sampled laser captured cell populations: Combining quantitative data for greater identification information

Two person DNA admixtures are frequently encountered in criminal cases and their interpretation can be challenging, particularly if the amount of DNA contributed by both individuals is approximately equal. Due to an inevitable degree of uncertainty in the constituent genotypes, reduced statistical weight is given to the mixture evidence compared to that expected from the constituent single source contributors. The ultimate goal of mixture analysis, then, is to precisely discern the constituent genotypes and here we posit a novel strategy to accomplish this. We hypothesised that LCM-mediated isolation of multiple groups of cells (‘binomial sampling’) from the admixture would create separate cell sub-populations with differing constituent weight ratios. Furthermore we predicted that interpreting the resulting DNA profiling data by the quantitative computer-based TrueAllele® interpretation system would result in an efficient recovery of the constituent genotypes due to newfound abilities to compute a maximum LR from sub-samples with skewed weight ratios, and to jointly interpret all possible pairings of sub-samples using a joint likelihood function.As a proof of concept, 10 separate cell samplings of size 20 recovered by LCM from each of two 1:1 buccal cell mixtures were DNA-STR profiled using a specifically developed LCN methodology, with the data analyzed by the TrueAllele® Casework system. In accordance with the binomial sampling hypothesis, the sub-samples exhibited weight ratios that were well dispersed from the 50% center value (50 ± 35% at the 95% level). The maximum log(LR) information for a genotype inferred from a single 20 cell sample was 18.5 ban, with an average log(LR) information of 11.7 ban. Co-inferring genotypes using a joint likelihood function with two sub-samples essentially recovered the full genotype information. We demonstrate that a similar gain in genotype information can be obtained with standard (28-cycle) PCR conditions using the same joint interpretation methods. Finally, we discuss the implications of this work for routine forensic practice.     

刑事错案形成的心理原因

刑事错案的成因包括直接原因、环境原因和心理原因,其中心理原因(主要表现为包括"遂道视野"、"证实偏差"等在内的各种心理偏差)对错案的形成有更根本的影响。绝大多数直接原因,如刑讯逼供、隐瞒有利于犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的证据、忽视辩护律师的合理意见等等,都是各种心理偏差的外在表现。而绝大多数环境原因,如不合理的考核方式、司法经费不足等等,之所以会导致错案,主要是因为它们强化了这些心理偏差。根据这些心理偏差对错案形成的可能影响,可以在心理学层面总结出刑事错案的形成过程及规律,而我国近年来纠正的22起刑事错案可以为此提供验证。我国有必要完善当前的刑事司法体制,以减少这些心理偏差对办案人员的影响,进而更有效地防止错案的发生。