The consequences of error: Recidivism prediction and civil-libertarian ratios

The utility of recidivistic prediction is limited by the false positive problem: predictions of failure (recidivism) that do not occur. False negatives (predicted successes but observed failures) are also worrisome, and together both types of error can be formally evaluated by what Blumstein, Farrington, and Moitra call the civil-libertarian ratio: the ratio of the subjective cost of a false positive to a false negative. Choice of a recidivistic criterion and selection of a proportion of offenders for criminal justice intervention have implications for the evaluation of the disutility or subjective cost associated with various civil-libertarian ratios. Logistic regression models of four recidivistic criteria are evaluated to demonstrate how base rate (observed failure rate) and selection ratio (proportion selected to fail) affect the disutility associated with a range of civil-libertarian ratios. Use of civil-libertarian ratios by criminal justice policy makers is demonstrated. Predictive utility is relatively difficult to achieve for rare recidivistic events if the decisions involve severe deprivation of liberty (incarceration decisions). Predictive utility is easier to achieve for more common forms of recidivism or in decision contexts where there is less concern for false positives, such as for “intermediate sanctions.”     

中国刑法教义学:经验、反思与建构

当代中国刑法教义学经历了去政治化工具的教义学、作为解释学工具的教义学及作为学科精致化工具的教义学的发展节点。面临实定法的粗疏与缺陷,理论继受过程中的移植落差,中国刑法教义学的发展呈现出诸多特殊的面向。一方面是中国刑法实定法规定的非理性,另一方面是刑法教义学本身的高度理性,二者之间形成了持久的紧张关系,在这种紧张关系之中开展教义学研究需要厘清实定法不可质疑性前提与教义学科学性的关系、立法论与解释论的关系,培育连接立法-司法-法学研究者的教义学共同体,同时警惕对德日刑法教义学的过度路径依赖,积极进行本土化教义学理论的创新与构建。     

Fatal pulmonary embolism:: A comparative study of autopsy incidence in Hong Kong and Cardiff, Wales

All autopsy reports from 1990–1994 inclusive of the Department of Pathology, University of Hong Kong and the Wales Institute of Forensic Medicine were examined and cases of death due to massive pulmonary embolism were noted. The incidence of this condition was calculated and found to be insignificantly lower in the Hong Kong series than the Welsh series by statistical analysis, both in the crude incidence in all autopsies and when correcting for different case mixes in the two locations. The majority of cases in both locations were in the over-60 age group. The study helps refute the longstanding belief among Hong Kong physicians that fatal massive pulmonary embolism is rare in Hong Kong (with approximately 98% Chinese population) in comparison with a predominantly Caucasian population.     

Internal colonization, folk justice, and murder in Appalachia: The case of Kentucky

For three decades, the southern subculture of violence thesis was the center of debate for homicide researchers. Often, the South was regarded as a homogeneous region regarded as a subculture without attending to within-region variations. This research tested whether there were subregional variations within the state of Kentucky, paying particular attention to the coal-producing counties of Appalachia as an internal colony. Sociodemographic factors, economic distress, Core-Appalachia, and alcohol were used as predictors of homicide in the state. Using path analysis, it is argued that economic distress and Core-Appalachia predict homicide with alcohol acting as a significant intervening factor in the relationship. It is concluded that sociodemographic, subcultural, structural, and lifestyle factors are interrelated and predictive of overall homicide rates in the state. Treating the South as a uniform region is questioned.     

Seeing Red: Entropy, Property, and Resistance in the Summer Riots 2011

This paper explores the thermodynamic property ??entropy?? as a metaphor for aesthetics and politics, law and resistance in the case of the Summer Riots 2011. The aim of the paper is to use the framework and structure of entropy to demonstrate a political aesthetics of property. This shall be done by firstly linking entropy with aesthetic concepts of order, disorder, symmetry and equilibrium. Works on complex adaptive systems to account for collective behaviour, combined with Benjaminian and Adornian accounts of the commodity, shall be used alongside the relevance of crowd theory in explaining not the riots themselves but the sentencing of collectivity in the case of R v Blackshaw & Others [2011] EWCA Crim 2312. Following Rancière and the arts and crafts movement, utility and beauty, the breaking down of the divisions of art, life, philosophy and science are summarised as the lesson of entropy for law. This re-visiting of the Summer Riots 2011 hopes to re-evaluate the sentencing procedures in light of ??Riot-Related Offending?? through an aesthetic politics of collectivity, property and commodity.