经济利益·地缘政治·意识形态——二战后日本对华外交基点的摇摆

二战后日本对华外交的基点,在经济利益、地缘政治、意识形态等多种因素之间徘徊.冷战结束后,日本对华外交中的意识形态因素反倒变得更加浓厚.这种局面在安倍内阁的"价值观外交"中达到一个高潮,而在福田内阁时期重新进入低潮.21世纪日本的对华外交究竟将做出何种抉择?目前日本还在几种选择方案之间动摇和彷徨.     

安倍第二次内阁期间日本对中东能源外交

安倍晋三第二次内阁期间是日本深化与拓展对中东能源外交非常“显著”的时期。安倍在第二次首相任内,经常出访中东,特别是重点加强与中东海湾重要能源出产国的能源合作关系。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本对中东能源外交主要涵盖了石油与天然气、可再生能源以及核能等领域。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本深化与拓展对中东能源外交是各种因素合力推动下进行的。日本深化对中东能源外交,首要目标是要绝对维系与确保日本中东能源进口安全,以为日本经济社会正常发展提供绝对支撑与保障,同时适时乘机扩展和彰显日本在中东地区能够发挥出的独特外交影响力。日本深化与拓展对中东能源外交面临着不少挑战与问题。未来日本能源消费结构还是相当程度上要依赖油气等化石能源,所以,未来日本客观上无法避免地还要继续深化与拓展对中东能源外交。而是否能够有效深化对中东能源外交,将是检验日本能源安全战略与日本整体外交智慧的“观察窗口”。     

日本安倍政府对东盟的现实主义外交刍议

日本安倍政府“巧妙”利用与东盟建立友好合作关系40周年的重要节点，通过频繁的政治互动与密集的经济合作，深化了日本与东盟在地区政治、经济、安全等各个维度上的政策拟合度。不仅如此，迫于现实与战略层面的利益考虑，安倍政府试图借助政治拉拢与经济控制，把东盟塑造成“遏制中国发展”的潜在战略盟友。但由于存在过分强调主观意志、工具主义与利益至上等严重的局限性，日本安倍政府对东盟的外交战略注定无法达到预期效果，也难以在现实层面拉拢东盟构筑对华包围圈。     

日本岸田政府“印太战略”新动向及中国应对

岸田政府的“印太战略”是日本前首相安倍“印太战略”总体构想的延续与发展。岸田政府“印太战略”旨在限制中国发展，实现印太地区力量平衡，促进“新资本主义”政策的实施，提升战略自主。岸田政府上台后从政治、经济、外交、防卫等方面全面推进“印太战略”。政治上，岸田政府继续巩固美日同盟，构建中日关系新框架；经济上，创造经济增长新动力，强化经济安保；外交上，强调价值观外交，组建民主联盟；防务上，聚焦印太地区军事安全，提升自主防卫能力。然而，岸田政府的战略实施仍面临诸多挑战。第一，岸田政府“印太战略”将受到日本国内问题的牵制。第二，日本伙伴关系不稳固，东盟国家不愿追随日本“印太战略”。第三，日本“印太战略”难以摆脱美国影响而实现战略自主。第四，“印太战略”框架下的中日合作难以实现。此外，中国影响力的扩大将制约岸田政府“印太战略”的实际效果。岸田政府的“印太战略”对中国造成了一定负面影响。中国应稳妥应对，管控分歧，将中日关系纳入良性发展轨道。     

日越防务合作动因分析——以“海上安保能力强化项目”为例

第二任安倍内阁以来,日本和越南在军队高层互访、多领域安全合作、日本海上自卫队停靠越南金兰湾等诸多方面进行防务合作。日越防务合作符合越南“全面外交”的外交方针和日本的印太战略。日越防务合作的动因主要为地缘战略动因(日越共同利益、印太战略需求)和经济性动因。但囿于意识形态上的巨大差异以及日本国内外的巨大舆论压力,两国间的防务合作前景并不确定。     

外交身份框架调整影响下的德国对美同盟政策变化

在德美同盟中，德国并非完全追随美国，其对外政策呈现出在“战略协调”与“外交对抗”之间动态变化的特点。根据本体安全理论，德国动态调整对美同盟政策的动力机制源自于德国维护其“文明国家”“西方国家”和“正常大国”复合型外交身份稳定性的需要。德国在“战略协调”和“外交对抗”之间的策略选择，取决于美国外交政策对德国复合外交身份稳定性的冲击程度。当美国对外政策调整严重威胁到德国外交身份的稳定性时，本体安全机制会推动德国调整其对外身份的叙事结构，指导德国采用外交对抗或战略平衡的方式应对由此导致的身份危机。不过，德国的对美政策调整被限定在外交身份框架的范围之内，因而两国间的分歧不会造成德美同盟关系的根本性破裂。     

试析安倍第二次内阁期间日本与中东关系

安倍第二次执政以后,高度重视与中东的关系,经常出访中东地区。频繁地访问中东,说明了日本对中东地区的高度重视、日本与中东关系的密切和深厚。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本与中东关系的主要内容包括:关注中东和平问题解决、政治与安全保障问题、能源合作、地区与全球等领域的协调与合作。日本深化与中东关系的动因有:确保能源安全、规避地缘政治风险、彰显日本大国影响力、展示文化教育等软实力、奉行平衡外交、居间调停等。鉴于日本自身与地区和国际形势等多种复杂因素,今后继续深化与中东的关系,日本还面临着不少困难与挑战。     

三木内阁的“等距离外交”与中日缔约谈判

三木内阁试图利用中苏矛盾在两国之间奉行“等距离外交”，一方面表示要全力推进中日缔约，稳步发展中日友好关系，以此提高对苏交涉地位；另一方面又不想开罪苏联，在中日缔约上施加种种限制，积极推动日苏对话，以增加对关战略博弈的资本，加重对中国谈判的筹码。三木内阁企图从中苏对抗中渔翁得利、两头通吃的作法反而使日本在苏联的压力下陷入被动，也引起了美国的反感和否定，从而使其推行的“等距离外交”在实践中四处碰壁，而不得不草草收场。     

独立运动时期李承晚对华认知与对华外交探析

韩人独立运动时期,李承晚的对外观有个萌生、转变与成型的过程,经历了从蔑清拥日防俄亲美到附美联华抗日反苏的蜕变。相应的,李承晚的对华观也由蔑清反清转向了联华疑华。李承晚的对华外交主要体现在跟中国护法军政府开展的缔交外交上,大韩民国临时政府与中国护法军政府实现了外交承认。     

21世纪初日本对外目标及外交战略探析

21世纪初期,日本在坚持“普通国家化”既定战略目标的基础上,从国家战略原则、战略重点及国家利益出发,围绕日美同盟、联合国外交、亚洲外交、应对全球气候变化等战略重点,力求以“全方位外交”实现日本国家对外目标及外交战略意图。     

Explaining Japan's Fragile Premierships in the Post-Koizumi Era

After Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's highly successful rule, Japan saw the five short-lived premierships ?C Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, Taro Aso, Yukio Hatoyama, and Naoto Kan ?C over the period of five years (2006-11). This article aims to identify the causes of this unusually high frequency of Japan's leadership changes in recent times. Specifically, it finds that all post-Koizumi prime ministers lost power after a short tenure by following the same pattern of demise that was characterized by a rapid fall of approval rate in the media's polls. It argues that they fell into this pattern of failure for the same three reasons: their failure in economic policy; their poor leadership ability derived from the vanishing of the traditional career path to premiership; their unstable intraparty foothold caused by the transition from candidate-centered election to party-centered election. It argues that the politics under the Koizumi and post-Koizumi cabinets share important undercurrents despite their apparent differences.     

从永久中立到依附美国——简析战后初期日本政府的国家安全构想

战后初期的日本政府从非武装化的现状出发,积极需求维护国家安全之路。概而言之,其国家安全构想经历了一个从永久中立国到依靠联合国,再到依附美国的演变过程。日本政府决策层最终选择依附美国,是在美苏对立的国际环境下,在被美国占领这一最大现实中,以"追随强者"的结盟心态做出的重大战略决择。在依附美国构想的基础上形成的战后日本国家安全政策目前正处于重要转型期,安倍内阁的国家安全政策走向特别值得关注。     

Reviews

This focuses on the August 2009 election which saw the massive victory of the Democratic party led by Yukio Hatoyama. The Liberal Democratic party (LDP), which had ruled Japan virtually without a break since 1955 paid the price for economic failure and long term voter dissatisfaction which was masked for a time by the skills of Koizumi. The new government is trying to rebalance relations with Asia, including China and the United States, where the marine base in Okinawa poses a particular challenge.     

Japan and China: A Fresh Start in a Difficult Era

No relationship is more important to the future of Asia than the one between Japan and China. PM Abe’s visit to Beijing last month put the relationship back on a firmer footing. Yet diplomacy alone will not stabilize Sino-Japanese relations. Popular attitudes in both countries also matter, and will be shaped by the success or failure of leaders to manage the growing complexity of this relationship from food security to fisheries management to national defense and new solutions to China’s growing influence over the daily lives of Japanese. Across Asia too, Japan and China will need to coexist without impeding each other’s influence. Next year’s visit to Japan by President Xi offers ample opportunity for expanding the foundation of this latest round of diplomatic “fresh starts” in the Japan-China relationship. Uncertainty over the US role in Asia, however, has made this a more difficult task.     

New Japan–China Relations and the Corresponding Positioning of the United States—History,Values, Realism in a Changing World

After more than a decade of deterioration in the relations between Japan and China symbolized by the visit of then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to Yasukuni Shrine, the relationship finally turned around in 2006–2007 into a qualitatively different one preparing for a new regional order. This was made possible mainly by the realistic perceptional change of the Japanese public on the regional security environment and the corresponding policy change of the Chinese Government on Japan-related histoty. The USA, as an essential stakeholder in Japan–China relations, also has to change itself in order to maintain its presence and interests in Asia and grasp a golden opportunity to build a more stable regional and international order given the drastic change in Japan–China relations which are still fragile due to structural problems. To this end, the USA needs to reevaluate and understand well the changing Japanese perception of history and of the severe security situation around Japan. Also, a Japan–USA–China trilateral partnership framework is now necessary to create a more stable Asian order by a USA initiative.     

20世纪初韩国的和平思想——日本的“东洋和平论”批判和韩中日间合作的探索

20世纪初期,在日本帝国主义进行侵略和扩张的过程中,伊藤博文政府为了建立"东洋和平"和西方势力抗衡,主张在韩中日之间开展合作。但事实上这种主张不过是把当时以日本为中心的东北亚地区秩序合法化的说辞。针对这一点,安重根、安昌浩、申采浩等韩国独立运动家指出国家正处于丧失国权的危机之中,在对日本主张的"东洋和平"进行批判的同时,强调只有在韩国等周边国家的独立得到保障的情况下才有可能实现真正意义上的"东洋和平"。1910年日本帝国主义强行合并韩国以后,申采浩、朴殷植等韩国独立运动家在指出日本合并韩国的非法性的同时,还强调韩中日等东北亚地区国家间建立在信任基础上的交流和合作的重要性,主张韩国的独立有利于"东洋和平与世界和平"。尤其值得一提的是,柳麟锡在强调韩中关系在东北亚的重要性及中国作用的同时,还提出了韩中日三国在相互信任的基础上朝着共生关系发展的构想。     

当前日本实施观光立国战略的研究

2012年底,安倍晋三重新执政之后,为推进观光立国战略的发展,改组了日本旅游行政管理机构,并要求相关部门要紧密合作共同打造"日本品牌",以此吸引外国游客访问日本。此外,日本政府还采取对东南亚国家放松旅游签证管制、开拓穆斯林客源市场以及向世界推广日本饮食文化等措施发展观光立国。虽然日本政府采取了许多措施吸引外国游客赴日旅游,但是由于忽视了中国大陆客源市场的巨大潜力,日本推进观光立国战略发展的政策措施效果将会大打折扣。     

Obama’s Pivot to Asia and Its Failed Japan-South Korea Historical Reconciliation

Since the 1980s, Japan’s war memory has strained its relations with South Korea and China, to a less degree, the USA. Two of the thorniest issues are the comfort women and the US atomic bombing of Japan. Before the Obama administration announced its policy pivot to Asia in 2011, both Japanese and American leaders were reluctant to make amends for the past acts of their countries. However, in 2015, the Japanese conservative Prime Minister Abe reached an agreement with South Korea that “finally and irreversibly” resolved the comfort women issue, thus achieving a historic reconciliation between the two countries. In 2016, then President Obama visited Hiroshima to commemorate the atomic bomb victims. Then, in December 2016, the comfort women issue resurfaced in Japan and South Korea relations, indicating a failure of the reconciliation. Why did the USA change its policy on historical issues involving Japan? Why did Abe and the South Korean President Park Geun-hye settle the comfort women issue? Why did Obama visit Hiroshima? Why did the reconciliation fail? In this article, I propose a rational choice theory to answer these questions. Applying the proposed theory and relying on available evidence, I argue that the settlement of the comfort women issue and Obama’s visit to Hiroshima are important components of Obama’s pivot to Asia to balance China’s rise. The reconciliation failed mainly because it did not resolve the historical justice issue promoted by the human rights norms. I discuss some implications for reconciliation in Northeast Asia.     

日本智库对中国崛起的研究

日本智库在对华决策方面发挥着重要作用,目前日本智库对于中国崛起的研究较多。多数日本智库看好中国崛起的前景,认为中国崛起在经济上给日本带来了许多机遇,同时也提出了在军事和战略上的各种隐忧。他们认为应加强同中国的交流与合作,抓住中国崛起带来的各种机遇,另一方面也要针对中国崛起可能带来的威胁加强防范。     

Japan’s Pivotal Role in the Emerging Indo-Pacific Order

The imperative in the Indo-Pacific region is to build a new strategic equilibrium pivoted on a stable balance of power. A constellation of likeminded states linked by interlocking strategic cooperation has become critical to help build such equilibrium. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the author of the “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept that the US is now pushing. But Japan faces important strategic challenges. To secure itself against dangers that did not exist when its current national-security policies and laws were framed, Japan must bolster its security or risk coming under siege. US security interests will be better served by a more confident and secure Japan that assumes greater responsibility for its own defense and for regional security. The US must encourage Japan, which has not fired a single shot against an outside party since World War II, to undertake greater national-security reforms. Peace in Asia demands a proactive Japan.