Confidence interval of the likelihood ratio associated with mixed stain DNA evidence

Likelihood ratios are necessary to properly interpret mixed stain DNA evidence. They can flexibly consider alternate hypotheses and can account for population substructure. The likelihood ratio should be seen as an estimate and not a fixed value, because the calculations are functions of allelic frequency estimates that were estimated from a small portion of the population. Current methods do not account for uncertainty in the likelihood ratio estimates and are therefore an incomplete picture of the strength of the evidence. We propose the use of a confidence interval to report the consequent variation of likelihood ratios. The confidence interval is calculated using the standard forensic likelihood ratio formulae and a variance estimate derived using the Taylor expansion. The formula is explained, and a computer program has been made available. Numeric work shows that the evidential strength of DNA profiles decreases as the variation among populations increases.     

Weight of authorship evidence with multiple categories of stylometric features: A multinomial-based discrete model

This study empirically demonstrates the efficacy of a two-level Dirichlet-multinomial statistical model (the Multinomial system) for computing likelihood ratios (LR) for linguistic, textual evidence with multiple stylometric feature types with discrete values. The LRs are calculated separately for each feature type, namely, word, character and part of speech N-grams (N = 1,2,3), which are combined as overall LRs through logistic regression fusion. The Multinomial system’s performance is compared with that of a previously proposed system with the cosine distance (the Cosine system) using the same data (i.e., documents collated from 2160 authors). The experimental results show that: (1) the Multinomial system outperforms the Cosine system with the fused feature types by a log-LR cost of ca. 0.01 ～ 0.05 bits; and (2) the Multinomial system is more advantageous in performance with longer documents than the Cosine system. Although the Cosine system is more robust overall against the sampling variability arising from the number of authors included in the reference and calibration databases, the Multinomial system can achieve reasonable stability in performance; for example, the standard deviation value of the log-LR cost becomes lower than 0.01 (10 random samplings of authors for the reference and calibration databases) with 60 or more authors in each database.     

Comparisons between Japanese and Han Chinese populations for 261 autosomal STR loci

In this study, Japanese and Han Chinese individuals (n = 32, each) were genotyped for 261 autosomal STRs, and allele frequencies were calculated for each locus in each population. The average number of alleles for all loci in Japanese and Han Chinese populations was 6.65 and 6.56, respectively. The tests for deviations from HWE performed using an exact test showed that the number of STRs (P > 0.05) in Japanese and Han Chinese populations was 236 and 241, respectively. Calculation of forensic parameters showed heterozygosity, and the exclusion means in the Japanese population were 0.7185 and 4813 and those in the Han Chinese population were 0.7308 and 0.5008. In addition, population genetic analyses, such as principal component analysis and factorial correspondence analysis, were performed and a differential formula with likelihood ratios was applied for various number of STR loci based on the effectiveness of differentiation between the two populations. Accordingly, this study suggests that statistical differentiation between genetically close populations, such as the Japanese and Han Chinese populations, is possible if approximately 40–50 effective STR loci are analyzed.     

Limitations of ZAF correction factors in the determination of calcium/phosphorus ratios: important forensic science considerations relevant to the analysis of bone fragments using scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray microanalysis

A series of calcium phosphate standards having calcium/phosphorus (Ca/P) molar ratios of 0.50, 1.00, 1.50, and 1.67, respectively, was prepared for bulk specimen analysis using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis (EDXA). The standards were mounted on carbon planchettes as either pure crystals or crystals embedded in epoxy resin. Ten different samples of each embedded and non-embedded standard were analyzed in a JEOL 100 CX electron microscope interfaced with a Kevex 8000 EDXA system using a lithium-drifted silicon detector and a multichannel analyzer. The Ca/P ratios were determined by calculating both net peak intensities without matrix corrections and atomic kappa-ratios using the MAGIC V computer program with ZAF correction factors for quantitative analysis. There was such extensive absorption of phosphorus X-rays in standards embedded in an epoxy matrix that the observed Ca/P ratios were statistically compatible with four different standards ranging in theoretical Ca/P ratios from 1.0 to 1.67. Although the non-embedded crystals showed a greater separation in the Ca/P ratios, both methods of preparation produced serious flaws in analysis. Direct application of the discovery of this caveat to the identification of suspected bone fragments for forensic science purposes is discussed.     

Score based procedures for the calculation of forensic likelihood ratios – Scores should take account of both similarity and typicality

Score based procedures for the calculation of forensic likelihood ratios are popular across different branches of forensic science. They have two stages, first a function or model which takes measured features from known-source and questioned-source pairs as input and calculates scores as output, then a subsequent model which converts scores to likelihood ratios. We demonstrate that scores which are purely measures of similarity are not appropriate for calculating forensically interpretable likelihood ratios. In addition to taking account of similarity between the questioned-origin specimen and the known-origin sample, scores must also take account of the typicality of the questioned-origin specimen with respect to a sample of the relevant population specified by the defence hypothesis. We use Monte Carlo simulations to compare the output of three score based procedures with reference likelihood ratio values calculated directly from the fully specified Monte Carlo distributions. The three types of scores compared are: 1. non-anchored similarity-only scores; 2. non-anchored similarity and typicality scores; and 3. known-source anchored same-origin scores and questioned-source anchored different-origin scores. We also make a comparison with the performance of a procedure using a dichotomous “match”/“non-match” similarity score, and compare the performance of 1 and 2 on real data.     

DNA mixture genotyping by probabilistic computer interpretation of binomially-sampled laser captured cell populations: Combining quantitative data for greater identification information

Two person DNA admixtures are frequently encountered in criminal cases and their interpretation can be challenging, particularly if the amount of DNA contributed by both individuals is approximately equal. Due to an inevitable degree of uncertainty in the constituent genotypes, reduced statistical weight is given to the mixture evidence compared to that expected from the constituent single source contributors. The ultimate goal of mixture analysis, then, is to precisely discern the constituent genotypes and here we posit a novel strategy to accomplish this. We hypothesised that LCM-mediated isolation of multiple groups of cells (‘binomial sampling’) from the admixture would create separate cell sub-populations with differing constituent weight ratios. Furthermore we predicted that interpreting the resulting DNA profiling data by the quantitative computer-based TrueAllele® interpretation system would result in an efficient recovery of the constituent genotypes due to newfound abilities to compute a maximum LR from sub-samples with skewed weight ratios, and to jointly interpret all possible pairings of sub-samples using a joint likelihood function.As a proof of concept, 10 separate cell samplings of size 20 recovered by LCM from each of two 1:1 buccal cell mixtures were DNA-STR profiled using a specifically developed LCN methodology, with the data analyzed by the TrueAllele® Casework system. In accordance with the binomial sampling hypothesis, the sub-samples exhibited weight ratios that were well dispersed from the 50% center value (50 ± 35% at the 95% level). The maximum log(LR) information for a genotype inferred from a single 20 cell sample was 18.5 ban, with an average log(LR) information of 11.7 ban. Co-inferring genotypes using a joint likelihood function with two sub-samples essentially recovered the full genotype information. We demonstrate that a similar gain in genotype information can be obtained with standard (28-cycle) PCR conditions using the same joint interpretation methods. Finally, we discuss the implications of this work for routine forensic practice.     

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites,

Contemporary, population‐specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two‐ to four‐tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum‐likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals.     

Likelihood ratios for complex mixtures with relatives

Likelihood ratios used for the analysis of complex DNA mixtures depend on a number of modeling assumptions and parameter estimates. In particular, the LR does not give information about the relative weight of the separate contributors for hypotheses conditioned on several contributors. An alternative is to evaluate the observed LR with respect to likelihood ratios expected under the defense hypothesis. Further, a p-value corresponding to the LR can be calculated. The p-value is the probability of observing a LR equally large or larger than the one observed, if the defense hypothesis is true. In this paper we investigate the distribution of likelihood ratios for mixtures with drop-in and drop-out and related contributors. Disregarding a plausible close relative of the suspect as an alternative contributor may overestimate the LR against a suspect.     

Consideration of the probative value of single donor 15-plex STR profiles in UK populations and its presentation in UK courts

The adoption of new 15 locus STR multiplex systems into UK forensic science would be facilitated by agreed guidelines for reporting the strength of DNA evidence using likelihood ratios. To facilitate such an agreement, we present an analysis of previously published UK allele frequencies for white Caucasian, Afro-Caribbean and Indo-Pakistani populations and investigate their effect on likelihood ratios for single donor profiles. We consider the implication of the five additional loci and suggest a procedure for reporting likelihood ratios for 15-plex STR profiles.     

Score-based likelihood ratios for handwriting evidence

Score-based approaches for computing forensic likelihood ratios are becoming more prevalent in the forensic literature. When two items of evidential value are entangled via a scorefunction, several nuances arise when attempting to model the score behavior under the competing source-level propositions. Specific assumptions must be made in order to appropriately model the numerator and denominator probability distributions. This process is fairly straightforward for the numerator of the score-based likelihood ratio, entailing the generation of a database of scores obtained by pairing items of evidence from the same source. However, this process presents ambiguities for the denominator database generation - in particular, how best to generate a database of scores between two items of different sources. Many alternatives have appeared in the literature, three of which we will consider in detail. They differ in their approach to generating denominator databases, by pairing (1) the item of known source with randomly selected items from a relevant database; (2) the item of unknown source with randomly generated items from a relevant database; or (3) two randomly generated items. When the two items differ in type, perhaps one having higher information content, these three alternatives can produce very different denominator databases. While each of these alternatives has appeared in the literature, the decision of how to generate the denominator database is often made without calling attention to the subjective nature of this process. In this paper, we compare each of the three methods (and the resulting score-based likelihood ratios), which can be thought of as three distinct interpretations of the denominator proposition. Our goal in performing these comparisons is to illustrate the effect that subtle modifications of these propositions can have on inferences drawn from the evidence evaluation procedure. The study was performed using a data set composed of cursive writing samples from over 400 writers. We found that, when provided with the same two items of evidence, the three methods often would lead to differing conclusions (with rates of disagreement ranging from 0.005 to 0.48). Rates of misleading evidence and Tippet plots are both used to characterize the range of behavior for the methods over varying sized questioned documents. The appendix shows that the three score-based likelihood ratios are theoretically very different not only from each other, but also from the likelihood ratio, and as a consequence each display drastically different behavior.     

Distribution of Venlafaxine,O‐desmethylvenlafaxine,and O‐desmethylvenlafaxine to Venlafaxine Ratio in Postmortem Human Brain Tissue

Venlafaxine (VEN) and its metabolite O‐desmethylvenlafaxine (ODV) inhibit reuptake of serotonin and norepinephrine. This study examines whether VEN is differentially distributed in postmortem brain and examines relationships between brain and femoral blood concentrations from donors prescribed VEN for treatment of depression. Using high‐pressure liquid chromatography‐ultraviolet detection, VEN and ODV concentrations were measured in temporal, occipital, and cerebellar cortex of six postmortem brains. The ODV/VEN ratio was calculated as a relative measure of drug metabolism within each region where higher ratios indicated a greater conversion of VEN to ODV. Compared to the other regions examined, the cerebellum showed decreased VEN (p = 0.056), ODV (p = 0.006), and ODV/VEN (p = 0.027) ratios. In parts per million, VEN was higher in temporal and occipital cortex, but not cerebellum, as compared to femoral blood concentration. These observations suggest that VEN and ODV are differentially distributed in the brain, and metabolism of VEN to ODV may vary across brain regions.     

Age estimation of adults from dental radiographs

Previous studies have shown that with advancing age the size of the dental pulp cavity is reduced as a result of secondary dentine deposit, so that measurements of this reduction can be used as an indicator of age. The aim of the present study was to find a method which could be used to estimate the chronological age of an adult from measurements of the size of the pulp on full mouth dental radiographs. The material consisted of periapical radiographs from 100 dental patients who had attended the clinics of the Dental Faculty in Oslo. The radiographs of six types of teeth from each jaw were measured: maxillary central and lateral incisors and second premolars, and mandibular lateral incisors, canines and first premolars. To compensate for differences in magnification and angulation on the radiographs, the following ratios were calculated: pulp/root length, pulp/tooth length, tooth/root length and pulp/root width at three different levels. Statistical analyses showed that Pearson's correlation coefficient between age and the different ratios for each type of tooth was significant, except for the ratio between tooth and root length, which was, therefore, excluded from further analysis. Principal component analyses were performed on all ratios, followed by regression analyses with age as dependent variable and the principal components as independent variables. The principal component analyses showed that only the two first of them had significant influence on age, and a good and easily calculated approximation to the first component was found to be the mean of all the ratios. A good approximation to the second principal component was found to be the difference between the mean of two width ratios and the mean of two length ratios, and these approximations of the first and second principal components were chosen as predictors in regression analyses with age as the dependent variable. The coefficient of determination (r²) for the estimation was strongest when the ratios of the six teeth were included (r² = 0.76) and weakest when measurements from the mandibular canines alone were included (r² = 0.56). Measurement on dental radiographs may be a non-invasive technique for estimating the age of adults, both living and dead, in forensic work and in archaeological studies, but the method ought to be tested on an independent sample.     

Comparison analysis of illicit cocaine samples.

A rapid method for comparison analysis of illicit cocaine samples has been developed. The raw data are obtained by capillary gas chromatography using a nitrogen-phosphorus detector. The area ratios of four alkaloids (tropacocaine, norcocaine, cis-cinnamoylcocaine, and trans-cinnamoylcocaine) to cocaine are calculated for each sample. These ratios are compiled in a computer database which allows easy comparison of samples and makes possible reliable conclusions regarding their commonality of origin.     

Evidence evaluation in fingerprint comparison and automated fingerprint identification systems--modelling within finger variability

Recent challenges and errors in fingerprint identification have highlighted the need for assessing the information content of a papillary pattern in a systematic way. In particular, estimation of the statistical uncertainty associated with this type of evidence is more and more called upon. The approach used in the present study is based on the assessment of likelihood ratios (LRs). This evaluative tool weighs the likelihood of evidence given two mutually exclusive hypotheses. The computation of likelihood ratios on a database of marks of known sources (matching the unknown and non-matching the unknown mark) allows an estimation of the evidential contribution of fingerprint evidence. LRs are computed taking advantage of the scores obtained from an automated fingerprint identification system and hence are based exclusively on level II features (minutiae). The AFIS system attributes a score to any comparison (fingerprint to fingerprint, mark to mark and mark to fingerprint), used here as a proximity measure between the respective arrangements of minutiae. The numerator of the LR addresses the within finger variability and is obtained by comparing the same configurations of minutiae coming from the same source. Only comparisons where the same minutiae are visible both on the mark and on the print are therefore taken into account. The denominator of the LR is obtained by cross-comparison with a database of prints originating from non-matching sources. The estimation of the numerator of the LR is much more complex in terms of specific data requirements than the estimation of the denominator of the LR (that requires only a large database of prints from an non-associated population). Hence this paper addresses specific issues associated with the numerator or within finger variability. This study aims at answering the following questions: (1) how a database for modelling within finger variability should be acquired; (2) whether or not the visualisation technique or the choice of different minutiae arrangements may influence that modelling and (3) what is the magnitude of LRs that can be expected from such a model. Results show that within finger variability is affected by the visualisation technique used on the mark, the number of minutiae and the minutiae configuration. They also show that the rates of misleading evidence in the likelihood ratios obtained for one of the configurations examined are low.     

家兔死后心肌酰胺A带的傅里叶变换红外光谱图像分析

目的 应用傅里叶变换红外光谱成像系统研究家兔心肌酰胺A带变化与死亡时间的关系.方法 将32只家兔处死后取出心脏,20℃保存,于48h内不同时间点取样并制作切片.用傅里叶变换红外光谱成像系统绘制酰胺A带图像,分析研究死后酰胺A带阳性与阴性面积比的变化规律. 结果 48h内随死亡时间(x)的延长,酰胺A带的阳性与阴性面积比...     

Non-fatherhood or mutation? A probabilistic approach to parental exclusion in paternity testing.

The occurrence of germline mutations at microsatellite loci poses problems in ascertaining non-fatherhood status in paternity testing. We describe the appropriate probabilistic analysis for computing the likelihood ratio in favour of paternity while allowing for mutation, for all 18 relevant combinations of seemingly incompatible parental genotypes. We allow arbitrary and possibly different mutation rates in paternal and maternal germlines. We describe a stationary mutation model for expressing the required allele-specific transition mutation rates in terms of overall mutation rates, and compare the likelihood ratios calculated from this and from other mutation models suggested in the literature. We also show how to derive an upper bound on the likelihood ratio, depending only on the overall mutation rate.     

Estimation of postmortem interval using kinetic analysis of the third component of complement (C3) cleavage

To estimate postmortem interval (PMI), spontaneous cleavage of the third component of complement (C3) was studied in aged blood and cadaveric blood by crossed immunoelectrophoresis. Using the kinetics of C3 cleavage in vitro described as dC/dt = -kC, where C is the concentration of native C3 at time t and k is a first-order rate constant, Arrhenius' equation, and another equation which assumes a linear drop of body temperature after death, the percentages of C3 cleavage were calculated. There was a significant positive correlation between the calculated percentages and the measured percentages of up to 10% in cadaveric blood. We found that the comparison between the calculated percentage of C3 cleavage for each optional postmortem interval and the measured percentage of up to 10% in cadaveric blood leads to the estimation of PMI. This approach is one step towards the development of an accurate method for determining PMI based on C3 cleavage, that is, on a first-order reaction.     

The calculation of DNA match probabilities in mixed race populations

A coherent method is offered to estimate likelihood ratios for DNA match probabilities from mixed racial populations that avoids the approach of reporting separate estimates for each race. The method is demonstrated for some cases involving profiles derived from several individuals and incorporates a correction for 'subpopulation' effects.     

An experimental study of the identification of the person of origin of a bloodstain by crossed immunoelectrophoresis

Crossed immunoelectrophoretic (CIEP) patterns were examined for the purpose of individualization of bloodstains. For comparison the areas of peaks were measured and ratios of the areas of corresponding peaks were calculated. To assess the dispersion of the ratios, the coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated as CV = 100 X standard deviation/mean of ratios. With 1-month-old bloodstains there were significant differences in the distributions of CV between the groups of the same and those of different origin. These results indicate that CIEP is useful as a means of identifying the origin of bloodstains.