伊拉克危机与世界政治

自冷战结束以来,国际经济与经济全球化这两个概念的区别已为国人所能把握,关于经济全球化内涵及问题的研究也有了相当的积累,然而,国际政治与世界政治这两个概念在中国却因缺乏界说而被随意地使用,在大多数人看来,世界政治似乎只是国际政治在规模意义上的扩大,两个概念所指涉的对象并无多大区别,更谈不上专门去研究。事实上,借助于一定的国际关系理论的视角,我们看到,在国际政治与世界政治这两个概念     

New Paths: Globalization in Historical Perspective

This essay argues that the historical–structural framework of analysis is still useful to describe the transformations generated by globalization in the underdeveloped countries, provided that it is employed with the subtlety needed to avoid reductionism. Globalization, in the same way as dependency, is nothing more than an unfolding of the capitalist system in today's historical conditions. The structural starting point conditions—but does not determine—the shape taken by economic and political processes. Political strategies for integrating into the global economy have a certain margin of autonomy. Still, the range of feasible strategies depends on factors that differ from country to country, such as the local capacity of income accumulation, the presence of foreign direct investment, the mix between nationally controlled production and production controlled by multinationals, the participation of the public sector in production, the capacity of the leadership, the prevailing ideologies, and so forth. In other words, there are alternative paths.     

Governing by Looking Back: Historical Analogies and Crisis Management

This article offers a conceptual framework that broadens and enhances our understanding of the role of 'history' in contemporary governance and the attempts by policy-makers to 'manage' critical issues. Building upon the literature on historical analogies in policy-making, we distinguish three dimensions that clarify how the past may emerge in and affect the current deliberations, choices and rhetoric of policy-makers. We apply this in a comparative examination of two cases of crisis management where historical analogies played an important part: the Swedish response to (alleged) submarine intrusions in 1982, and the European Union sanctions against Austria in 1999. We induce from the case comparison new concepts and hypotheses for understanding the role of historical analogies in public policy-making and crisis management.     

什叶派开始在伊拉克当家做主

1月30日,伊拉克举行全国大选,选举产生由275个议席的过渡国民议会.2月中旬伊独立选举委员会公布的最终计票结果显示,伊全国1400万登记选民中855万选民参加选举,投票率为59%;约26.4万海外选民参加投票,投票率高达93%.     

The Political Economy of Performance Standards: Automotive Industrial Policy in Comparative Historical Perspective

A substantial body of literature holds that industrial policies work best when their beneficiaries are subject to demanding performance standards. By conditioning access to their low-cost loans and lucrative markets on foreign sales and local content, for example, East Asian officials forced their manufacturers to improve quality, cut costs, and develop linkages to allied industries – that generated jobs and foreign exchange revenues of their own – in the so-called miracle years. But the politics of performance standards are themselves unclear. Why are they more common in some countries than others? Are they more likely to be imposed by autocratic than democratic regimes? And, if so, why? I address these questions by examining cross-national data on export and local content requirements in the auto industry in 1980; find that they all but presupposed autocracy in labour-surplus – but not labour-scarce – countries; explore the interactions of political regimes, productive assets, and performance standards in South Korea in particular; and discuss their theoretical and methodological implications. The results not only imply that efforts to build new comparative advantages over the long run by means of performance standards that put existing comparative advantages at risk in the short run are unlikely to succeed in labour-surplus democracies but, in so doing, speak to the merits of ‘middle-N’ methods and typologies that try to reconcile the at times competing goals of generality and historical detail in cross-national research.     

Government Transparency in Historical Perspective: From the Ancient Regime to Open Data in The Netherlands

This article presents an analysis of the history of government transparency over the past 250 years. While this analysis is to a certain extent specific to The Netherlands, the analysis will also identify more general patterns that are arguably relevant to the development of transparency in other Western countries. The overview highlights how, when, and why transparency was conceived as a cornerstone of representative democracy to allow the people to monitor their representatives and evolved into a fundament of participatory democracy that allows people to participate in the public domain.     

The pre-war reconstruction of post-war Iraq

The period before the March-April 2003 war on Iraq witnessed unprecedented preparation for post-war reconstruction. This 'pre-war reconstruction' or 'pre-emptive reconstruction' confronts those involved in humanitarian activity with urgent practical and ethical questions. This article begins with an outline of the development of post-war reconstruction as a specific area of focus for humanitarian organisations and academia, before examining the pre-war plans for the reconstruction of post-war Iraq. It argues that it is not enough to be cynical about possible US motivations for planning for the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. Instead, pre-war reconstruction offers a number of opportunities for a critique of developments in humanitarianism and US foreign policy. But pre-war reconstruction also carries with it a number of pitfalls, not least the reframing of warfare as a non-destructive activity.     

在曲折中前行的伊拉克共产党

年初以来,随着为期4年的伊拉克国民议会宣告成立、以马利基为首的首届伊拉克民族团结政府内阁成员正式宣誓就职,半个多世纪以来饱受当局镇压的伊拉克共产党在新内阁中也谋得一席,成为伊政局一支重要的力量.     

Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq

The United States has long been frustrated in fighting insurgencies. An almost unbroken string of mostly ill-fated experiences in effectively prosecuting this unique blend of political-military operations can be traced backward over nearly half a century from the situation in Iraq today to the early 1960s when the U.S. became heavily engaged in Indochina's wars. Vietnam and Iraq thus form two legs of a historically fraught triangle—with America's experiences in El Salvador in the 1980s providing the connecting leg. The aim of this article is not to rake over old coals or rehash now familiar criticism. Rather, its purpose is to use the present as prologue in order to understand in counterinsurgency terms where we have gone wrong in Iraq; what unique challenges the current conflict in Iraq presents to the U.S. and other coalition military forces deployed there; and what light both shed on future counterinsurgency planning, operations and requirements.     

Legacies and Leverage: EU Political Conditionality and Democracy Promotion in Historical Perspective

Previous studies have established strong and robust effects of EU political conditionality on democracy in the neighbouring countries. We test these effects against the claim that historical legacies condition the likelihood of successful democratisation—and possibly the EU's political conditionality as well. Based on a panel study of 36 countries of the Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhood of the EU between 1988 and 2004, we show that cultural legacies of religious civilisation are indeed conducive to or inhibit democratisation, and reduce the effects of political conditionality, but they do not explain away the EU's role in promoting democratic consolidation.     

Migration and Livelihoods in Historical Perspective: A Case Study of Bihar,India

Whereas other contributions in this volume focus on contemporary migration, this article explores the role migration has played over a long period of time, in western Bihar, India. By doing so, it reinforces one of the central themes in this volume, regarding the importance of migration for livelihoods: this case study challenges the assumption that migration would be a recent phenomenon, and argues that to understand the history of this area one needs to take account of the complex interaction between migration and development. Migration has been a livelihood strategy for many groups within the area, and the study explores how migration has been caused by and in turn influences poverty and livelihoods for men and women, and how these relationships have changed over time.     

从金融危机看国际体系和世界格局的变化

当前最突出的全球性问题，就是美国的金融问题引发了“百年一遇”的世界性金融危机。这场危机不仅已从金融领域扩散到实体经济领域，从发达国家殃及发展中国家，对多国经济发展和人民生活造成严重影响，而且撼动了现有的国际体系和世界格局。     

The Fall: Consequences of US Withdrawal From Iraq

There is no big anti‐war movement in the United States against Iraq like there was against Vietnam. But the people have finally spoken against President Bush's Iraq policy by resoundingly returning a Democratic majority to Congress. Henry Kissinger, eminence gris of American diplomacy, ponders whether this means a “return to realism.” The military historian Martin van Creveld looks at what American withdrawal would mean.