中日农产品贸易的定因分析及对策研究

中国和日本作为世界上两大经济体,其经济结构的互补性使两国间的贸易发展很快。 日本已连续9年成为中国最大的贸易伙伴,中国也已多年成为日本的第二大贸易伙伴。 1996年至2002年7月,在中日贸易中,中国对日本的出超持续,且基本上呈现出一年比一 年扩大的趋势。就农产品贸易而言,现状并不乐观,从2001年开始,双边农产品贸易出现停 滞;2002出现了下滑,其中,中国农产品对日出口额下滑幅度较大。     

RCEP生效对中日货物贸易的影响研究

中国和日本互为重要的贸易伙伴,双方贸易产品结构集中度较高,市场相互依存程度较高,贸易竞争性和互补性并存。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)生效通过中日相互减让关税的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应及贸易逆转效应、原产地区域累积规则的享惠门槛降低效应、海关程序和贸易便利化的贸易成本降低效应、服务贸易及投资协定的间接出口带动效应对中日货物贸易产生较大的影响。GTAP模型模拟评估结果表明,中日关税减让对两国的进出口规模均有促进且对日本的促进作用更强,两国的GDP和社会福利均会得到改善,但中国的贸易条件和贸易收支会出现恶化;两国双边进、出口额均有增加但产业异质性明显,中国各产业对日出口和进口均增加,其中纺织品对日本出口增量最大,机电产品自日进口增加额最多;中国对日本的货物贸易逆差增加。为此,中国应制定灵活的产业冲击应变政策,充分利用原产地区域累积规则,重视推进非关税壁垒优惠安排,做好贸易风险防范。     

大萧条时期美国贸易政策与中美贸易

20世纪30年代世界经济大萧条时期,开始于美国的贸易保护主义政策,极大地损害了国际贸易的发展,中国的对外贸易尤其是中美贸易也受到了严重冲击。1929～1932年,尽管中国货币被动贬值,但其对出口的积极效应远远小于美国进口税提高及进口需求下降的效应。1933年以后美国关税壁垒降低,美国货币贬值及白银购买导致中国货币相对升值,但有限的贸易自由化及国民收入的增加,引致进口需求扩大,并由此带动了中国对美出口贸易的增长。     

日本服务贸易国际竞争力的实证分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,落后的服务贸易日益成为日本经济发展的障碍。本文利用服务贸易国际竞争力指标体系,对自1997年以来的日本服务贸易国际竞争力进行了评价,发现日本1997年贸易政策的变革在一定程度上推动了日本服务贸易的发展,日本服务贸易出口增长优势明显,国际竞争力略有提高,但相对于其他发达国家而言,日本的服务贸易国际竞争力整体水平仍然相对较低,有待进一步提高。     

十六世纪漳泉贸易港与日本的走私贸易

十六世纪是中日贸易发生巨大变化的时期。由明朝规定的朝贡贸易制度,因不能满足日本方面对中国商品的迫切需求,造成日本各大名、寺社经常为争夺对明朝贡而展开激烈竞争。这种竞争到后来发展成宁波的拼杀事件——“争贡之役”,明朝以此罢市舶,严海禁,断绝与日本的正式贸易。而一些原先以“朝贡”名义来华贸易的日本商人只好转到漳泉沿海一带从事走私贸易,在当地百姓的接济和一些地方豪门望族的勾引下,这种走私贸易越来越猖獗,遂迫使明朝不得不在福建漳州月港部分开放海禁,准许私人出海贸易,而此后的中日贸易走向已发生变化,成为仅有中国商人载运货物到日本的单向贸易。     

基于PLS模型的中日服务贸易竞争力比较研究

基于2000年—2014年时间序列数据,利用NRCA指数分析了中日服务贸易竞争力情况,并通过PLS模型研究了中日服务贸易竞争力的影响因素。结果显示,中日服务贸易在总量、结构上有相似之处,但在服务贸易竞争力及其影响因素上有显著差异,且日本服务贸易总体竞争力强于中国。因此,借鉴日本服务贸易发展策略,对中国有重要意义。     

中国是否挤出了日本对“一带一路”国家的出口贸易——基于分类数据的实证分析

在运用相关贸易指标计算中日两国在"一带一路"沿线国家出口相似度和比较优势的基础上,运用扩展的贸易引力模型和分类商品贸易和服务贸易数据,实证检验了中国对"一带一路"沿线国家出口是否对日本的出口贸易具有挤出效应。结果表明,中国对沿线国家的商品出口不会挤出日本的商品出口,而会促进日本的服务贸易出口。在此基础上,分析了中日两国在与沿线国家贸易往来中的合作潜能。反驳了"一带一路"发展挤占非"一带一路"国家贸易的观点,更为科学地对"挤占论"、"中国威胁论"等认知予以全方位回应,更好地体现了"一带一路"建设为世界各国带来的互利共赢发展的良好局面。     

中日贸易对日本经济增长贡献率的实证分析

当前的中日关系就总体而言处于一种政冷经热的状态中,但是两国的经济联系日益密切,双方均成为了彼此重要的贸易伙伴.作为亚洲特别是东亚地区的两个大国,中日关系的变化将对这个区域的政治、经济形势带来巨大的影响.本文通过考察中日贸易对日本GDP增长的贡献率发现,中日贸易与日本的经济增长有很强的正相关性.具体来讲,虽然有较大的起伏,但是日本对华进口、出口增长对其GDP增长的贡献度和贡献率是稳步攀升.本文还从贡献度和贡献率的变化轨迹角度,将中日贸易对日本经济增长的关系大致分为三个阶段,分别是初级阶段、稳定依赖关系的形成阶段和依赖关系加深的阶段.     

“一带一路”框架下中日对东盟基建关联产业出口竞争状况分析——基于显性比较优势指数与转移份额分析方法

在"一带一路"框架下,中日对东盟基建关联产业出口的竞争中,中国较日本出口规模大、增速快;中日两国主要出口产品相同,出口市场各有侧重;出口竞争力整体上中国呈上升趋势、日本呈下降趋势,细分产品的出口竞争力中日相似,各出口市场上的竞争力日本整体高于中国;中国整体上处于出口竞争优势,且竞争效应是其主要原因;日本处于竞争力劣势,但行业组合效应为正且尤以运输设备最为突出;中日基建关联产业应加强在东盟市场上的合作力度,提高出口的联合竞争力,实现中日贸易的动态互补与合作共赢。     

日欧EPA降税安排对中国与日欧货物贸易影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟

日本和欧盟是中国的重要贸易伙伴,日本-欧盟经济伙伴关系协定(日欧EPA)生效会对中日和中欧货物贸易产生较大影响。GTAP模型(全球贸易分析项目)评估结果表明,日欧关税减让使中国的贸易条件恶化,中国对日本的进出口均明显减少,对欧盟的出口增加、进口减少;不同产业所受影响异质性明显,中国的活动物及动物产品、皮革制品和纺织品对日本出口明显减少而对欧盟出口有所增加,机电产品和汽车及运输设备对日本出口增加而对欧盟出口下降;中国自日本和欧盟进口的机电产品、汽车及运输设备、化学橡胶制品和金属及金属制品均有明显下降,尤以机电产品进口所受负面影响最大。为此,中国急需促进进出口市场多元化,加强对重点进口产业预警机制建设,提升出口产品的国际竞争力,加快推进自由贸易区建立。     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

战后日本在亚太地区的战略选择

战后日本选择在亚太地区推行重振战略、大国战略和拓展战略,逐步减轻战后体制束缚,恢复亚太强国地位,进而掠夺发展空间。三步战略目标明确、实施有序,相互衔接、融为一体,帮助日本洗脱战争罪责,骗取国际信任,攫取发展资源。这其中饱含了日本政府的政治谋略,具有很强的隐蔽性和迷惑性。由于日本亚太战略始终偏离正确轨道,并且为转嫁政府执政危机服务,所以很难取得最终胜利。当前中日关系紧张微妙。不能对日本保守政府抱有太多幻想,以防落入圈套,可以尝试联合国际力量,强化战后制裁体制,防止日本重蹈覆辙。     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

Translation,Modernity, and Women in China

The end of the cold war witnessed the emergence of a commercial web sprawling from the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region in western China and extending into Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), Pakistan, and Russia. Running parallel to the state-managed exchange in hydrocarbons, raw materials, technology, and infrastructure, this new Eurasian trade had an informal component as everyday consumer items manufactured in China were imported into neighboring countries, bypassing formal regulatory mechanisms. This inter-Asian trade began as shuttle trading by itinerant merchants for local markets; by the mid 1990s, shuttle trading was overshadowed by largescale export for national markets in neighboring countries without losing its informal character. This informality extending across national boundaries defined the post–cold war commerce in innermost Asia; at the same time, it also signaled a return to pre-cold war trading structures. Moving away from the “retreat of the state” thesis that found traction following the cold war, the author attributes informality in this inter-Asian trade to three factors: (1) a restructuring of state power where informal trade was a new comparative advantage sought in an evolving geopolitical climate; (2) the actors in this inter-Asian trade—party and regional officials in China, along with traders and intermediaries—who found and exercised agency through this exchange; and (3) a chain of inter-locking, commercial macro-regions, which are economically sustainable and which transcended international boundaries. Working in conjunction, these factors constitute a dynamic inter-Asian trade and challenge static state imaginaries of a “New Silk Road” or “Eurasian Continental Bridge.”     

中日出口结构测度及影响因素研究——基于出口复杂度角度

使用出口复杂度指数,利用1995年—2014年《标准国际贸易分类》三位码数据,从产品层面、产业层面及国家层面测度中日制造业产品出口结构,并通过岭回归解析两国出口复杂度影响因素。研究发现:在产品结构方面,中、日出口分别集中于中低、中高复杂度产品;在影响因素方面,人力资本、研发支出对中日均有显著影响,人口规模对两国均无显著影响,FDI与加工贸易对中国有显著正向影响,人均GDP对日本有显著正向影响。     

Japan and China: Security interests in the post-Cold War era

This article examines the role of Japan in relation to China’s security interests in the post-Cold War era. The first section assesses Japan as a potential security threat to China at a time when Japan appears to be re-emerging as a great power. It analyzes the possible rise of nationalism in Japan today, including discussion of China’s dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. The second section looks at how Japan can actually enhance China’s security interests, particularly in the economic sphere. Japan’s contribution to China’s modernization drive is assessed. It is argued that Japan seems to enhance China’s security interests more than it poses a threat, partly because of the economic benefits China derives from trading with Japan, and partly because Japanese foreign policy has hitherto been kept in check by the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security Treaty.     

Climate change: Double-edged sword for African trade and development

Abstract

African governments face increasing pressure from major export destinations, primarily former colonial and slave-owning countries, to be climate change compliant. This will certainly be on display at the upcoming December 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which will seek to strengthen climate change rules agreed on in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, and adopt new protocols on global climate change regulation. Climate change is a double-edged sword: on one side it is hitting Africa's agricultural sector with increased droughts, floods, extreme frost and wildfires; and on the other, African governments are being forced to respond to stringent regulatory regimes imposed by international export destinations. Currently, the per capita greenhouse gas emissions from the highly industrialised nations – the North – is estimated to be four times that of Africa and the rest of the developing world. Twin research questions were investigated in this article: (1) to what extent does climate change impact on African trade and development, and (2) how can African governments stay on a path of sustained trade and development in this era of climate change? The article argues that Africa's survival in these times of climate change compliance rests on a shift to greater intra-African trade, as individual nations move towards cleaner and more organic technologies to become full-fledged partners in the international climate change regulatory regime.     

论日本创新型国家发展模式

创新是当今时代的主旋律，它对我国现阶段政治、经济、文化产生深远的影响。立基于创新的相关论说，为中国建设创新型国家提供借鉴。从日本建立创新型国家具有的优势进行研究，并从多方位多角度去发现其具有的特点及意义来论证日本建立创新型国家对我国建立创新型和谐社会国家所具有的参考价值，从中考虑如何对未来我国发展模式的框架进行构建。