“基地”组织恐怖活动变化与也门反恐态势

2009年底以来,“基地”组织在也门的恐怖活动由长期隐性状态迅猛发展为显性状态,“基地”以也门为据点掀起了新一轮国际恐怖主义浪潮。其在战略目标、活动空间、恐怖手法等方面反映出“基地”实力消长的新变化,对“基地”在也门的活动趋势、国际反恐斗争等都将产生重大影响。     

Al-Qaeda and Anarchism: A Historian's Reply to Terrorology: Response to Commentaries

The Lehi, a fringe Jewish paramilitary group created in 1940, conducted a concerted terrorist campaign against the British authorities in Palestine during and after World War II, proclaiming that its activities were undertaken in the name of national liberation. Lehi was founded and led by Avraham Stern, also known as “Yair.” Scholar, intellectual, and poet, Stern developed a fundamental ideology of national and messianic Jewish terrorism, which became the ideological basis not only for the work of the Lehi, but also for later Jewish terrorist activism. The present article examines the intellectual foundations of Lehi terrorism and how its intellectual and ideological principles influenced Lehi's most controversial activities—internal terrorism and the execution of its own members. In conclusion, the author traces the impact of Stern's intellectual legacy on later generations of Jewish terrorists.     

Lorenzo Vidino. Al-Qaeda in Europe: The New Battleground for International Jihad

This article reviews the changing patterns of violence in Northern Ireland from the period just before the paramilitary ceasefires in 1994 through the duration of the years of the peace process. It provides an overview of data on activities including paramilitary activities, ‘punishment’ attacks, racist, homophobic and domestic violence, public disorder and rioting as well as serious and violent crime. The article then analyzes the changes, and offers some reasons accounting for them. This includes a review of the role of young people, paramilitary organizations and the police reform program in the ongoing violence, as well as an acknowledgment of a wider culture of violence that helps to sustain such activities.     

Iranian Involvement in Yemen

For at least a decade, there have been numerous Yemeni, Saudi, and other countries’ assertions that Iran has been involved in supporting northern Yemeni rebels seeking autonomy from the Sana’a government. Iranian diplomatic and political support for this rebellious group (known as the Houthis) is undeniable, but Iranian military assistance for them has not always been easy to prove. This situation appeared to change in 2011 when Iran's increased involvement in Yemen occurred in response to both the chaotic situation there during the final year of the Saleh regime and the danger that the Arab Spring revolutions would leave Iran increasingly isolated. Evidence of Iranian efforts to supply weapons to the Houthis now seems overwhelming in contrast to uncertain reports prior to 2011. In addition, at least some of Yemen's southern secessionists also appear to be receiving at least limited Iranian financial support.     

The Institutionalization of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI)

A number of observers have expressed serious concerns that Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI), as it expands in the Sahel, may become strong enough to be a threat to Europe and carry on the global mission of Al-Qaeda as conceived by bin Laden. This fear seems unwarranted. Using institutional analysis to study the AQMI behavioral fluctuations over the last decade, this article argues that AQMI's need to find a compromise between external and internal legitimacy has constrained its behavior. The affiliation of the Algerian terrorists with Al-Qaeda was in many ways a marriage of convenience that created a number of internal contradictions. At the cognitive level, implicit Algerian nationalism to rid the country of its corrupt regime remains at odds with pan-Islamic views shared by Al-Qaeda's leadership. At the normative level, indiscriminate suicide bombing supported by Al-Qaeda is abhorrent to many Algerian terrorists, who construe their mandate in the spirit of the Algerian war of independence where it is their duty to protect civilians. These and other contradictions prevent AQMI from developing a coherent political agenda and thus it is less likely to engage in a long-term conflict against European societies.     

Mark S. Hamm. Terrorism as Crime: From Oklahoma City to Al-Qaeda and Beyond

Few issues are more important to scholars of security studies than understanding the impact of state sponsorship on the capabilities of non-state armed actors. The subject of our study—Lebanon's Hezbollah—was selected based on its reputation amongst scholars and policymakers alike as an exceptionally capable organization. In our inquiry, we seek to answer the following questions about Hezbollah's rapid emergence during the 1980s as one of the world's premier armed non-state actors: (a) how did Iranian sponsorship contribute to Hezbollah's effectiveness?; and (b) to what extent did Hezbollah's success depend on characteristics endogenous to the organization itself? To preview our conclusions, state sponsorship can contribute markedly to non-state actors' capabilities by providing resources and sanctuary. However, the ultimate effectiveness of non-state armed groups depends heavily on such internal characteristics as their decision-making processes and members' backgrounds. Thus, while state support may be necessary for non-state actors to achieve their goals, it is insufficient as a guarantee of their effectiveness.     

In Pursuit of a Pacific Strategy:British Planning for the Defeat of Japan, 1943-45

This article seeks to explain why the British pushed for a role in Pacific operations during the Second World War when it faced other strategic priorities in Southeast Asia, as well as a powerful American military that maintained tight control over operational decision-making. Although several quarters in Whitehall, including the Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, had doubts about the necessity of a Pacific strategy, there were sensible reasons behind pursuing such a course. It would illustrate to an “anti-imperialist” America that Britain was not only interested in recovering its colonial possessions but also prepared to fight the Japanese on their homeland. More importantly, taking part in the main operations would allow the British to claim a voice at the peace table while helping to encourage the Americans to cement their close working relationship with Britain in the postwar period.     

The socio-economic impact of the involuntary mass return to Yemen in 1990

800,000 Yemen nationals were forced to leave Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other countries in the region during the Gulf War. Their mass return to Yemen followed immediately after reunification of North and South Yemen. Analysis reveals that the term "migrant worker" is a misnomer and obscures the variations in wealth, residence, and status. Returnees had variable lengths of stay abroad, number of dependents or family members abroad or at home, types of occupation, ownership of assets, frequency of visits to the community of origin, and remittances. The range of long-term migrants included wealthy merchants and bankers, middle level service and retail workers, and poor workers in the informal sector. The common thread is that all suffered some decline in standard of living. The return was less disruptive for short-term migrants. Some long-term residents no longer had social and economic ties to Yemen, and some had no experience living in Yemen. About 33% were estimated to be without ties to home communities. The decline in remittances from abroad affected foreign exchange receipts. The country shifted from labor scarcity to unemployment conditions. The infrastructure in housing, education, and social services was strained. The one-time influx of capital was short-lived. Returnees comprised about 7% of the total population. The feared upheaval politically and economically did not occur. Suggested improvements for future mass resettlement include offering shanty dwellers a supplemental feeding program, a means of obtaining secure housing, and increased infrastructure. The long-term benefits of encouraging a return to agriculture should have been more widely promoted.     

也门部落暴力问题初探

由于政治、经济和文化等原因引起的也门部落暴力事件非常普遍,已成为突出的社会问题,不仅扰乱社会治安,影响社会稳定,而且阻碍也门的对外开放和经济社会发展.部落暴力是也门由来已久的一种部落现象,贫困、政治因素、社会矛盾、部落保护习俗,以及武器泛滥等是引发部落暴力的重要原因.解决也门部落暴力问题的根本途径在于促进社会发展和摆脱贫困;建立合法的政治参与渠道和法律途径、促进传统同现代制度的协调;同时加大打击恐怖主义和控制武器泛滥的力度.     

Communication Breakdown: Strategic Communications and Defeat in Afghanistan

The author reflects on our decade long conflict in Afghanistan and identifies what he considers a main contributor to the malaise. He believes it is a failure to communicate: a message of purpose which answers the oft-asked “why are we there?” question amongst Western audiences; a message of resolve on which Afghans can bet their lives that ISAF will remain there until the Taliban is beaten or compelled to reasonable compromise; and, a message of what success will look like which is accompanied by a compelling rationalization of the cost.     

A matter of balance: the European Union as a mediator in Yemen

The mediation efforts of the European Union (EU) Delegation in Yemen started with the uprising in 2011 which led to the conclusion of the National Dialogue Conference in 2014. This article examines the EU's understanding of mediation vis-à-vis its practice. The case of Yemen lends itself to trace EU mediation capabilities from the implementation of the “Concept on Strengthening Mediation and Dialogue Capacities” to a more systematic approach because the Mediation Support Team (MST) of the European External Action Service took office in 2011. Building on an analytical framework of mediation as a tool of EU foreign policy, this article demonstrates how EU mediation presents itself along a political and a technical dimension. The collaboration of the MST and the EU Delegation personnel in Yemen fostered an increase in mediation awareness. However, it could not develop its full potential as the UN Special Advisor sidelined the EU and other members of the Group of Ten Ambassadors through his proactive approach. Despite those difficulties of standing up to established actors in the field, this study argues that EU mediation is about balancing its political and technical dimension. For now, the political seems to outweigh the craft of mediation in the case of Yemen.     

俄罗斯新外交战略

7月12日,俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫签署命令,批准《俄罗斯联邦外交政策构想》。这部构想是对2000年普京主持制订的《俄罗斯外交政策构想》的“补充”和“发展”,既体现了梅、普外交战略和政策的连续性,也展现出俄在国力增强和国际形势急剧变化背景下的对外政策新思路。     

日本的新防务战略

2004年12月10日,日本内阁会议出台了新《防卫计划大纲》及据此制定的《2005—2009财年中期防卫力量整备计划》(以下简称为《中期整备计划》),为日本防务能力在未来10年内的发展提出了总体构想,并对2005—2009财年日本军事力量的调整做出了具体安排。同日,日本内阁官房长官细田博之发表声明,宣布日本将突破“禁止武器出口三原则”①,为美国导弹防御系统研发、生产拦截导弹的组件。这标志着备受世人关注的日本新防务战略的正式形成,反映出日本与“专守防卫”渐行渐远,其军事扩张的步伐进一步加快、对外攻击性越来越明显。一、日本新防务战略出…     

美国"新帝国"战略分析

“9·11”事件标志着冷战后美国的全球霸权步入新的阶段。恐怖主义的冲击和布什的世界观交互作用,将霸权战略推向“新帝国”的高峰。霸权扩展在     

俄美“新战略框架”分析

20 0 2年 5月 ,俄罗斯与美国宣布建立新型的战略框架关系。俄罗斯与北约建立“2 0国机制” ,揭开了俄美关系发展新的一页。新战略框架作为俄美在新形势下对双方关系的一种界定 ,它反映出俄美双方的主要意图和共同利益 ,各有其战略所需。俄美新战略框架关系的建立 ,标志着两国关系进入了新的发展阶段 ,同时也具有美进俄退、美攻俄守的态势和核战略优势向美倾斜的趋势。俄美建立新战略关系是双方“求同存异”的现实选择 ,由于利益分歧依旧存在、战略目标不同、相互信任基础不稳固以及国内政治因素的影响 ,新战略框架关系的发展面临着许多不确定因素。当前 ,美国在大国关系中占据主导地位 ,俄美关系今后如何发展将主要取决于美国的行动。     

简析越南的东亚合作和共同体建设新对策

作为2010年东盟轮值主席国和东亚世界经济论坛东道主,越南在2010年元月召开的瑞士第40届达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上,就东亚合作和共同体建设以及其它一些国际问题积极发表意见,为提升自己在东盟中的地位和作用做出努力,并借此进一步提升自己的国际地位,推进其长远外交战略的实现。     

从斯瓦特到瓦济里斯坦——评美国阿巴新战略在巴基斯坦的初步运用

阿巴新战略反映了美国政府的反恐战场东移，巴基斯坦和阿富汗边境地区成为主要战场，自9．11事件以来溃败至巴基斯坦部落地区的塔利班势力、基地组织及其它极端主义力量将遭遇美国的强力打击，由此牵动地区局势的新发展值得持续关注。