“基地”组织恐怖活动变化与也门反恐态势

2009年底以来,“基地”组织在也门的恐怖活动由长期隐性状态迅猛发展为显性状态,“基地”以也门为据点掀起了新一轮国际恐怖主义浪潮。其在战略目标、活动空间、恐怖手法等方面反映出“基地”实力消长的新变化,对“基地”在也门的活动趋势、国际反恐斗争等都将产生重大影响。     

Lorenzo Vidino. Al-Qaeda in Europe: The New Battleground for International Jihad

This article reviews the changing patterns of violence in Northern Ireland from the period just before the paramilitary ceasefires in 1994 through the duration of the years of the peace process. It provides an overview of data on activities including paramilitary activities, ‘punishment’ attacks, racist, homophobic and domestic violence, public disorder and rioting as well as serious and violent crime. The article then analyzes the changes, and offers some reasons accounting for them. This includes a review of the role of young people, paramilitary organizations and the police reform program in the ongoing violence, as well as an acknowledgment of a wider culture of violence that helps to sustain such activities.     

Iranian Involvement in Yemen

For at least a decade, there have been numerous Yemeni, Saudi, and other countries’ assertions that Iran has been involved in supporting northern Yemeni rebels seeking autonomy from the Sana’a government. Iranian diplomatic and political support for this rebellious group (known as the Houthis) is undeniable, but Iranian military assistance for them has not always been easy to prove. This situation appeared to change in 2011 when Iran's increased involvement in Yemen occurred in response to both the chaotic situation there during the final year of the Saleh regime and the danger that the Arab Spring revolutions would leave Iran increasingly isolated. Evidence of Iranian efforts to supply weapons to the Houthis now seems overwhelming in contrast to uncertain reports prior to 2011. In addition, at least some of Yemen's southern secessionists also appear to be receiving at least limited Iranian financial support.     

In Pursuit of a Pacific Strategy:British Planning for the Defeat of Japan, 1943-45

This article seeks to explain why the British pushed for a role in Pacific operations during the Second World War when it faced other strategic priorities in Southeast Asia, as well as a powerful American military that maintained tight control over operational decision-making. Although several quarters in Whitehall, including the Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, had doubts about the necessity of a Pacific strategy, there were sensible reasons behind pursuing such a course. It would illustrate to an “anti-imperialist” America that Britain was not only interested in recovering its colonial possessions but also prepared to fight the Japanese on their homeland. More importantly, taking part in the main operations would allow the British to claim a voice at the peace table while helping to encourage the Americans to cement their close working relationship with Britain in the postwar period.     

The socio-economic impact of the involuntary mass return to Yemen in 1990

800,000 Yemen nationals were forced to leave Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other countries in the region during the Gulf War. Their mass return to Yemen followed immediately after reunification of North and South Yemen. Analysis reveals that the term "migrant worker" is a misnomer and obscures the variations in wealth, residence, and status. Returnees had variable lengths of stay abroad, number of dependents or family members abroad or at home, types of occupation, ownership of assets, frequency of visits to the community of origin, and remittances. The range of long-term migrants included wealthy merchants and bankers, middle level service and retail workers, and poor workers in the informal sector. The common thread is that all suffered some decline in standard of living. The return was less disruptive for short-term migrants. Some long-term residents no longer had social and economic ties to Yemen, and some had no experience living in Yemen. About 33% were estimated to be without ties to home communities. The decline in remittances from abroad affected foreign exchange receipts. The country shifted from labor scarcity to unemployment conditions. The infrastructure in housing, education, and social services was strained. The one-time influx of capital was short-lived. Returnees comprised about 7% of the total population. The feared upheaval politically and economically did not occur. Suggested improvements for future mass resettlement include offering shanty dwellers a supplemental feeding program, a means of obtaining secure housing, and increased infrastructure. The long-term benefits of encouraging a return to agriculture should have been more widely promoted.     

也门部落暴力问题初探

由于政治、经济和文化等原因引起的也门部落暴力事件非常普遍,已成为突出的社会问题,不仅扰乱社会治安,影响社会稳定,而且阻碍也门的对外开放和经济社会发展.部落暴力是也门由来已久的一种部落现象,贫困、政治因素、社会矛盾、部落保护习俗,以及武器泛滥等是引发部落暴力的重要原因.解决也门部落暴力问题的根本途径在于促进社会发展和摆脱贫困;建立合法的政治参与渠道和法律途径、促进传统同现代制度的协调;同时加大打击恐怖主义和控制武器泛滥的力度.     

日本新政府拟成立“国家战略局”

今年8月30日,日本举行国会众议院选举实现政权更迭,最大在野党民主党与社会党和国民新党联合组阁.9月16日,民主党党首鸠山由纪夫当选为日本第93届、第60位首相.[1]在民主党的竞选纲领中,最引人瞩目的焦点就是政治改革,在构建政治主导型决策体系的政治改革理念指导     

俄罗斯新外交战略

7月12日,俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫签署命令,批准《俄罗斯联邦外交政策构想》。这部构想是对2000年普京主持制订的《俄罗斯外交政策构想》的“补充”和“发展”,既体现了梅、普外交战略和政策的连续性,也展现出俄在国力增强和国际形势急剧变化背景下的对外政策新思路。     

日本的新防务战略

2004年12月10日,日本内阁会议出台了新《防卫计划大纲》及据此制定的《2005—2009财年中期防卫力量整备计划》(以下简称为《中期整备计划》),为日本防务能力在未来10年内的发展提出了总体构想,并对2005—2009财年日本军事力量的调整做出了具体安排。同日,日本内阁官房长官细田博之发表声明,宣布日本将突破“禁止武器出口三原则”①,为美国导弹防御系统研发、生产拦截导弹的组件。这标志着备受世人关注的日本新防务战略的正式形成,反映出日本与“专守防卫”渐行渐远,其军事扩张的步伐进一步加快、对外攻击性越来越明显。一、日本新防务战略出…     

从斯瓦特到瓦济里斯坦——评美国阿巴新战略在巴基斯坦的初步运用

阿巴新战略反映了美国政府的反恐战场东移,巴基斯坦和阿富汗边境地区成为主要战场,自9．11事件以来溃败至巴基斯坦部落地区的塔利班势力、基地组织及其它极端主义力量将遭遇美国的强力打击,由此牵动地区局势的新发展值得持续关注。     

美国"新帝国"战略分析

“9·11”事件标志着冷战后美国的全球霸权步入新的阶段。恐怖主义的冲击和布什的世界观交互作用,将霸权战略推向“新帝国”的高峰。霸权扩展在     

俄美“新战略框架”分析

20 0 2年 5月 ,俄罗斯与美国宣布建立新型的战略框架关系。俄罗斯与北约建立“2 0国机制” ,揭开了俄美关系发展新的一页。新战略框架作为俄美在新形势下对双方关系的一种界定 ,它反映出俄美双方的主要意图和共同利益 ,各有其战略所需。俄美新战略框架关系的建立 ,标志着两国关系进入了新的发展阶段 ,同时也具有美进俄退、美攻俄守的态势和核战略优势向美倾斜的趋势。俄美建立新战略关系是双方“求同存异”的现实选择 ,由于利益分歧依旧存在、战略目标不同、相互信任基础不稳固以及国内政治因素的影响 ,新战略框架关系的发展面临着许多不确定因素。当前 ,美国在大国关系中占据主导地位 ,俄美关系今后如何发展将主要取决于美国的行动。     

美国新中亚战略评析

美国公布新的中亚战略包含四方面调整,即将中亚地区视为独立的地缘政治板块、将阿富汗视为中亚一部分、明确将在中亚加强对俄罗斯和中国的遏制、重新界定美国在该地区的比较优势。新中亚战略的实施将会对中亚地区稳定和主要大国在该地区互动产生一定影响。但由于美国在实施该战略中投入力度有限、比较优势不明显,中亚国家不会轻易改变自身多元平衡外交政策、对阿富汗及其局势的认知与美有明显差异,以及美国在中亚地区的战略冒进可能引发大国反制,新战略的实施不会一帆风顺。     

卡特在也门社会的影响

卡特①是一种终年长绿、内含麻醉物质的无果灌木植物,多生长在山丘地带,靠栽种成活,生长周期长,成活率高,其嫩枝在一年里可收获数次。据史料记载,卡特于公元13世纪由埃塞俄比亚人发现后传到也门,至今在埃塞俄比亚、吉布提、肯尼亚、索马里和苏丹等国均有种植。②目前在也门境内可看到一片片不足1米高的小卡特树。对于卡特的用途,各国说法不一,许多国家认为卡特中含有的麻黄碱③虽属轻度麻醉物质,仍被视为麻醉品的一种。1981年初,阿拉伯麻醉品事务管理局曾做出决定,将卡特与鸦片和可卡因归为一类麻醉品。沙特阿拉伯和埃及严禁卡特入境,非法携…     

简析越南的东亚合作和共同体建设新对策

作为2010年东盟轮值主席国和东亚世界经济论坛东道主,越南在2010年元月召开的瑞士第40届达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上,就东亚合作和共同体建设以及其它一些国际问题积极发表意见,为提升自己在东盟中的地位和作用做出努力,并借此进一步提升自己的国际地位,推进其长远外交战略的实现。     

也门日益严重的水资源短缺问题

也门是世界水资源严重缺乏的国家之一,目前,全国每年可再生的水资源总量不超过25亿立方米,其中,15亿立方米存在于地表,另外10亿立方米为地下水。水资源的消耗量至1995年即已达到32亿立方米。而此前世界银行发布的一份报告称,也门年均水资源总量约为21亿立方米,年均消耗量约为28亿立方米,人均水占有量仅为150~160多立方米,远远低于中东和东非国家1250立方米的年人均水占有量。在萨那盆地,尽管其每年开采的水源总量已达到人均224立方米,但仍有约10%的人口年均水占有量仅为42立方米。造成这一局面的主要原因在于也门缺少河流、遍布全国的具有防…     

亟待改进的也门医疗卫生状况

据也门计划与发展部所属的中央统计局有关资料显示,2001年也门在医疗卫生部门共投入预算资金约1.31亿美元,占总预算的4.6%,较2000年仅增长0.6%。这意味着也门政府平均每年投入到每个国民身上的医疗保健费用仅为7美元。无论按何种标准都太少。造成这一局面的原因,以及制约也门医     

China's New Multi-Faceted Maritime Strategy

As trade-driven growth and prosperity redefine both the Chinese economy and the global competitive landscape, U.S. policy makers increasingly must ponder whether the Chinese leadership will seek new options and capabilities to protect its far-reaching oceanic lifelines. As imported oil and raw minerals power the Chinese juggernaut, much of these flows traverse the Strait of Malacca and other littorals where there is little current Chinese capability to project power. In recent years, there is an ongoing debate among Chinese military circles regarding the feasibility of constructing a blue-water fleet that could change the balance of power in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. U.S. policy makers watch with increasing unease as a new generation of technically-savvy navy officers forcefully argue for a forward-looking maritime strategic posture that extends beyond the East and South China Seas. In addition, recent Chinese space-based and cyber warfare technology initatives bear watching as Beijing seeks to nullify key U.S. advantages in C4SRI using a high-tech variant of “asymmetric warfare.” Although it is unclear what direction future Chinese maritime strategy and doctrine will take, U.S. policy makers need to remain vigilant about rising Chinese maritime ambitions and capabilities in the future.