Battles over numbers: the case of the Argentine consumer price index (2007–2015)

An unprecedented crisis of confidence in Argentina's public statistics rendered the declaration of a ‘National Statistical Emergency’ in 2016. This paper examines the battle over the Argentine consumer price index (CPI) between 2007 and 2015. It argues that in this dispute the index became the object of political struggle rather than a methodological controversy. The main characteristics of the Argentine CPI, its trajectory and the country’s inflationary history influenced the type of debate and the dispute that was possible and feasible. The battle was linked to the erosion of confidence in and social support for official statistics and to the emergence of alternative price indices. Both processes seriously undermined the government's ability to control inflation.     

Majority summits: Decision‐making inside the cabinet and out: Italy, 1970–1990

This article examines two major changes which have developed in response to the weakness of the cabinet government in Italy: first, the strengthening of the Prime Minister through a set of new laws and informal arrangements; and second, the establishment of an extra‐governmental device of cabinet decision‐making: the coalition parties' Majority Summit bringing together party leaders and governmental representatives. The analysis of their number, composition, content, seat and outcome shows how these informal arenas have become highly institutionalised. Over the last 20 years, in fact, the intra‐governmental co‐ordination and collegiality has been replaced by an extra‐governmental party bargaining managed by Majority Summits.     

International Missions as a Way to Improve Civil–Military Relations: The Spanish Case (1989–2015)

At the end of the twentieth century (after a long history of coups d’état, a military uprising, a civil war, and a four-decade dictatorship) the Spanish public had serious doubts about the democratic nature of the armed forces. In 1989, the Spanish armed forces first took part in an international mission. Now, after 25 years of continuous active participation in overseas missions, public opinion polls rank the armed forces as the second most trusted institution in the country. International missions have contributed to (1) modernizing the Spanish armed forces; (2) changing the mentality of the Spanish military; and (3) improving Spanish society’s perception of the armed forces’ role. All in all, the armed forces’ performance abroad has helped improve domestic civil–military relations.     

Trade openness and public expenditure. The Spanish case, 1960–2000

The empirical link between the post-WWII expansion of international market integration and the growth of national public expenditure has been widely noted, with no consensus as yet regarding the interpretation of this correlation. We posit that a likely link between increased openness and public spending is the use of the latter to offset changes in the distribution of income that result from increased openness. To explore this potential link, we study time series data from Spain in 1960–2000, a period of major changes in political organization as well as in both fiscal and trade policy. We find evidence that democracy reinforced the causal relation from increased openness to greater public expenditure. Thus, the paper contributes to the literature that emphasizes that changes in political regimes are potentially important determinants of the observed international patterns of openness and government size.     

ASEAN and regional governance after the Cold War: from regional order to regional community?

Abstract

This paper first reviews and critiques the dominant realist and constructivist accounts of ASEAN, which have enjoyed much prominence in The Pacific Review since the journal's founding in 1988. ASEAN behaviour and outcomes cannot be fitted into neat theoretical categories that emphasize either material or ideational variables in explanation. Instead, ASEAN displays complexities in behaviour that are the product of the contingent interaction between the material (power, territory, wealth) and the ideational (norms, ideas, identity) as member states actively seek to manage domestic order as well as regional order within and beyond ASEAN. In all of this, state interests and identities remain paramount, which means that the long-standing ASEAN norms of sovereignty/non-interference remain central to regional governance. Under these conditions, and despite the Charter's newly articulated political norms of democratization, human rights, and the rule of law, the prospects seem doubtful for building a people-centred ASEAN Community in which regional governance displays inclusiveness, seeking to address the interests and needs of the region's ordinary people as opposed to what its elites deem appropriate. The final portion of the paper explores what a critical approach to studying ASEAN might reveal. In particular, the paper attempts to identify whether there may be any political spaces opening up within existing structures and practices from which progressive change could emerge, even if slowly, particularly in the area of human rights and social justice, key elements in building an inclusive, ASEAN Community.     

Intelligence and the formulation of policy and strategy in Early Modern Europe: The Spanish Monarchy in the Reign of Charles II (1665–1700)

This article seeks to explore the means whereby the Spanish Monarchy under the last Habsburg, Charles II (1665–1700), contributed to its own survival in the era of Louis XIV by exploring its acquisition and use of intelligence. There was nothing particularly distinctive about Spain's intelligence machinery. Nor was it always effective. Nevertheless, Spain's extensive diplomatic and imperial network facilitated the acquisition of a great deal of information which on occasion was clearly of great importance – for example, in preventing the destruction of Charles II's fleet in the summer of 1693 by that of Louis XIV. In sum, intelligence contributed to the remarkable resilience of the Spanish Monarchy in an age of supposed Spanish decline.     

The 2015 Spanish election: the times they are a’ changing

The Spanish legislative election of 2015 speaks of change. This is the end of the traditional two-party system and the beginning of a new political era marked by institutional renewal. The Socialist Party and the Partido Popular have both lost significant parliamentary force, whereas two new parties (Podemos, and Ciudadanos) are now crucial to ensure stable government majorities. This new parliamentary scenario seems to better mirror the political pluralism of a changing society which has already demonstrated for change in striking events such as the 15-M Movement. However, political parties are far from showing conciliatory aspirations, possibly because a new election is suddenly a realistic option. This report outlines the political context of the election, indicates the main topics during the campaign and discusses the results.     

Policy entrepreneurs and post-conflict cross-border cooperation: a conceptual framework and the Israeli–Jordanian case

What is the role of policy entrepreneurs in shaping the dynamics which normalize relationships between neighboring countries after the formal resolution of conflict? This article suggests a conceptual framework to understand the influence of policy entrepreneurs on public policy regarding cross-border interaction in post-conflict border regions. We analyze the motivations, preferences and strategies of local players which design given realities in the border region. We propose a typology of the various policy entrepreneurs active in the post-conflict border region. The theoretical framework is used in the analysis of the Israeli–Jordanian border region since the peace treaty of 1994.     

On the political economy and limits of crisis insurance: the case of the 2008–11 bailouts

The bailouts of 2008–10 are the most recent in a long series of insurance-like policies designed to limit the losses of those harmed by a crisis of some kind—but enacted after a crisis is under way. This paper analyzes the economics and politics of “crisis insurance” programs. The analysis helps explain why ex-post insurance is popular, why it tends to be undersupplied by private markets, and why governments may be better able to provide it. The analysis also points out that there are limits to what losses can be covered. The routine adoption of new programs to limit losses from crises tends to require greater expenditures through time because of moral hazard problems and the nature of crises. Eventually, this trend may produce “uninsurable” crises. The analysis of this paper suggests that such problems can be moderated, although not eliminated, through appropriate standing polices for ex-post funding of crisis insurance.     

Strategic voting in local elections: evidence from Portugal (1979–2013)

Do voters behave strategically in local elections? Does democratic experience influence voters’ capacity to behave strategically? Is there a relation between education and voters’ capacity to anticipate the mechanical effects of electoral statutes and adapt their behaviour accordingly? Using an original data set covering the complete democratic period, this paper studies strategic voting at the local level in Portugal. Using an ecological inference approach, we contribute to a vast body of literature on strategic voting by testing whether theories developed for national contexts travel to local contexts. Our findings suggest that (1) voters consistently defect to non-viable lists to support viable lists; (2) democratic experience helps voters to learn how to maximize their utility; and (3) education is important for voters’ ability to identify a strategic setting.     

The Royal Navy,Intelligence and the Spanish Civil War: Lessons in Air Power, 1936–39

This article discusses the Royal Navy (RN)—Royal Air Force (RAF) feud concerning the use of air power in the round through an investigation of each service's appreciations of the lessons being learned about air power during the Spanish Civil War. It reveals that despite such bodies as the Joint Intelligence Committee existing, for the processing of operational and strategic intelligence, there was very little that was joint about the way air power lessons were being used to inform RN and RAF interwar preparations for future conflict. Not only were the RN and RAF rivals, which dragged out the process and skewed the results so that they became useless for planning, but in that non-joint age each service could use the results for its own separate purposes and avoid any synergy among the services for operational and strategic effectiveness.     

Public intelligence: Leaks as policy instruments–the case of the Iraq war

The study of intelligence has focused almost exclusively on ‘secret’ intelligence in its analysis of intelligence failures and the relationship of policy and intelligence. This is not surprising since intelligence analysis takes place in secret. Yet sometimes intelligence becomes public. It does so in ways that hold implications for the quality of the overall intelligence product. In order to develop a complete understanding of the relationship between intelligence and policy we need to more systematically examine the nature of public intelligence. This article provides a framework for doing so, presents historical examples from the American experience and applies the framework to the intelligence used in justifying the Iraq War.     

Pre-Election Polling and the Rational Voter: Evidence from State Panel Data (1986–1998)

This study examines the role of pre-election perceptions of race closeness, by way of newspaper polls, in motivating citizens to vote on a specific contest while in the voting booth. Results from an error components model (random effects), employing state panel data of concurrent gubernatorial and Senate elections for the period 1986 to 1998, fail to bolster the rational voter hypothesis that perceived closeness matters. The extent to which pre-election perception matters is shown to depend directly on how one measures the likelihood of a close contest. In contrast, few long-standing variables, inherent to the voting literature, have any impact on “within-booth” voting behavior. The majority of within-booth abstention is left unexplained; furthering the notion of Matsusaka and Palda (1999) that the act of voting, indeed, may be random.     

Intra-industry trade and protectionism: the case of the buy national policy

This article examines the factors that lead governments to open up their public procurement markets to international competition with a particular emphasis on the effect of intra-industry trade. Contrary to the conventional notion that intra-industry trade entails less political pressure for protectionism than inter-industry trade, I argue that such notion does not prevail in the case of discriminatory public procurement. Firms in a market with a high degree of intra-industry trade are more likely to resist the removal of discrimination than would firms in a market with a high degree of inter-industry trade. Empirically, I find support for the argument both at sub-national and cross-national settings.     

Economics and the ‘nonsense’ of law: the case of the Chicago antitrust revolution

Abstract

The Law and Economics movement that emerged in the University of Chicago through the 1940s and 1950s, around Ronald Coase's example, is a manifestation of the neo-liberal project of applying neo-classical economics to state sovereignty. In the 1970s and 1980s, Law and Economics ideas revolutionized the application of antitrust laws in the United States. However, this achievement came about not through a transformation in economic orthodoxy, but through persuading legal experts to recognize the inherent ‘nonsense’ at work in their own normative assumptions. The Chicago antitrust revolution is therefore symptomatic of trends that Foucault viewed as definitive of neo-liberalism more broadly.     

Dispersion versus decentralization: British location of industry policies and regional development 1945–60

The 1945 Labour government launched two major location of industry intiatives-Development Area plicy, to maintain full employment in Britain's formerly depressed areas, and the decentralization of London's population and industry, partly via the development of eight London New Towns. Conflict between these policies was inevitable. Despite initial safeguards, the Conservative administrations of the 1950s allowed the industrial needs of the London New Towns to take precedence over those of the Development Areas. Furthermore, while the growth-orientated development objectives and strategy of the London New Towns produced a capital-intensive, mutually reinforcing industrial base of high-tech firms, Development Area policy emphasized short-term employment creation, encouraging the growth of low-wage, labour-intensive ‘overspill’ production. These differences in policy objectives and strategy had important consequences for the relative long-term success of the two initiatives.     

Uncertainty,institutions and regulatory responses to emerging technologies: CRISPR Gene editing in the US and the EU (2012–2019)

This study aims to improve theoretical accounts of regulatory responses to emerging technologies by proposing a model of regulatory development, which incorporates a role for types of uncertainty and for existing regulatory institutions. Differently from existing theories of regulatory development, the model proposed here posits a sequence of cyclical activities where regulatory responses arise in incremental fashion out of efforts to make sense of emerging technologies and to ponder the applicability of existing regulatory tools. The model is discussed on the basis of the comparison between regulatory responses to the emergence of CRISPR gene editing in the US and the EU in the period 2012–2019. The comparison between the two cases suggests how regulatory responses to emerging technologies are affected by expectations of future technological and regulatory developments and by existing regulatory institutions.     

Fiscal decentralization and the size of government: a European country empirical analysis

This article is an original contribution to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal decentralization and government size. Using a panel data set of the EU-15 countries, we analyse the effect of decentralization on aggregate, national and subnational government sizes by separating the long run effects of decentralization from its short run dynamics. In the long run, tax autonomy reduces central expenditure but increases—and to a greater extent—subnational public expenditure, leading to higher aggregate public expenditure. We find also that vertical imbalances tend to increase the sizes of subnational, national and aggregate governments.