Paternity probability when a relative of the father is an alleged father

When scientists use DNA evidence in court, coancestry effects such as population structure and relatedness are usually ignored. In paternity cases, only if a particular man has the child's paternal allele at a certain locus, can he not be excluded in the paternity dispute. However, it is certainly true that close relatives will be far more likely to have the child's paternal allele than will random members of the reference population. In particular, the probability that the true father's brother has the paternal allele is very much greater than that for any other relationship. In this paper, the authors describe a method for inference in a case where the true father may be a relative of the alleged father. This paper also reports that most current methods overstate the probability that the alleged father is the father.     

ISFG: Recommendations on biostatistics in paternity testing

The Paternity Testing Commission (PTC) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics has taken up the task of establishing the biostatistical recommendations in accordance with the ISO 17025 standards and a previous set of ISFG recommendations specific to the genetic investigations in paternity cases. In the initial set, the PTC recommended that biostatistical evaluations of paternity are based on a likelihood ratio principle – yielding the paternity index, PI. Here, we have made five supplementary biostatistical recommendations. The first recommendation clarifies and defines basic concepts of genetic hypotheses and calculation concerns needed to produce valid PIs. The second and third recommendations address issues associated with population genetics (allele probabilities, Y-chromosome markers, mtDNA, and population substructuring) and special circumstances (deficiency/reconstruction and immigration cases), respectively. The fourth recommendation considers strategies regarding genetic evidence against paternity. The fifth recommendation covers necessary documentation, reporting details and assumptions underlying calculations. The PTC strongly suggests that these recommendations should be adopted by all laboratories involved in paternity testing as the basis for their biostatistical analysis.     

Sampling and statistical considerations for the Suchey–Brooks method for pubic bone age estimation: Implications for regional comparisons

Although the Suchey–Brooks (SB) system is currently the most widely used method for age-at-death estimation from the pubic bone, the system continues to evolve through stepwise improvements. Since the system was developed from a pubic bone sample derived mainly from North Americans, it is unclear how well it performs on populations from other continents. During the last decade, studies of the SB system on pubic bone samples from local populations in Europe and Asia have indicated regional differences in the relationship between age and pubic bone development. However, these studies have for the most part followed different research protocols, which make comparisons between their results less meaningful. It would be most useful if future regional analysis of the SB system were done in a rigorous and uniform fashion, following standard procedures. In this paper, sampling and statistical considerations are outlined that hopefully will help to standardize research on the SB system.     

A response to Busey & Klutzke (2022): Regarding subjective assignment of likelihood ratios

Busey & Klutzke (2022) states that “Morrison (2012) has argued that the likelihood ratio need not be quantitative but could be based on the expert’s subjective evaluation.” The statement appears to suggest that Morrison (2012) argued in favour of subjective assignment of likelihood-ratio values. This interpretation of Morrison (2012) is incorrect.     

Consensus on validation of forensic voice comparison

Since the 1960s, there have been calls for forensic voice comparison to be empirically validated under casework conditions. Since around 2000, there have been an increasing number of researchers and practitioners who conduct forensic-voice-comparison research and casework within the likelihood-ratio framework. In recent years, this community of researchers and practitioners has made substantial progress toward validation under casework conditions becoming a standard part of practice: Procedures for conducting validation have been developed, along with graphics and metrics for representing the results, and an increasing number of papers are being published that include empirical validation of forensic-voice-comparison systems under conditions reflecting casework conditions. An outstanding question, however, is: In the context of a case, given the results of an empirical validation of a forensic-voice-comparison system, how can one decide whether the system is good enough for its output to be used in court? This paper provides a statement of consensus developed in response to this question. Contributors included individuals who had knowledge and experience of validating forensic-voice-comparison systems in research and/or casework contexts, and individuals who had actually presented validation results to courts. They also included individuals who could bring a legal perspective on these matters, and individuals with knowledge and experience of validation in forensic science more broadly. We provide recommendations on what practitioners should do when conducting evaluations and validations, and what they should present to the court. Although our focus is explicitly on forensic voice comparison, we hope that this contribution will be of interest to an audience concerned with validation in forensic science more broadly. Although not written specifically for a legal audience, we hope that this contribution will still be of interest to lawyers.     

双亲皆疑亲子鉴定STR分型亲权指数计算方法探讨

计算标准三联体亲子鉴定的PI值及探讨双亲皆疑亲子鉴定PI值计算的可靠方法 ,对常规STR分型鉴定结果 ,根据Eseen M ller计算理论 ,总结出标准三联体亲子鉴定计算PI值的 4个公式 :1/ p ,1/ ( 2 p) ,1/ (p +q) ,1/ ( 2p +2 q)。提出适用于双亲皆疑亲子鉴定的一种新的PI值计算方法 ,并与其他方法进行比较。认为该方法取值Y时 ,既考虑随机男女生孩子的可能性 ,也考虑假设父 (或假设母 )与随机个体生孩子的可能性 ,更符合随机原则。     

陈旧性骨骼DNA提取技术的研究

对陈旧性骨骼建立一个高回收率并能除去 PCR 反应抑制物的提取 DNA 的方法。采用 CTAB 法提取 DNA。结果显示,该方法不但能有效去除 PCR 抑制物,而且对水泡、火烧、土埋以及10年左右的骨骼所提取的 DNA 均能成功地进行荧光标记 STR 多基因座扩增检验。实验表明,该方法稳定,重复性好,适合陈旧骨骼标本的 DNA 提取。     

A method for calculating the strength of evidence associated with an earwitness's claimed recognition of a familiar speaker

The present paper proposes and demonstrates a method for assessing strength of evidence when an earwitness claims to recognize the voice of a speaker who is familiar to them. The method calculates a Bayes factor that answers the question: What is the probability that the earwitness would claim to recognize the offender as the suspect if the offender was the suspect versus what is the probability that the earwitness would claim to recognize the offender as the suspect if the offender was not the suspect but some other speaker from the relevant population? By “claim” we mean a claim made by a cooperative earwitness not a claim made by an earwitness who is intentionally deceptive. Relevant data are derived from naïve listeners' responses to recordings of familiar speakers presented in a speaker lineup. The method is demonstrated under recording conditions that broadly reflect those of a real case.     

A method to enable forensic genetic genealogy investigations from DNA mixtures

The presence of more than one DNA contributor in an evidentiary sample may preclude attempts to use forensic genetic genealogy to develop an investigative lead. To address this issue, we developed a workflow for deconvolution of SNP mixtures into single source profiles that are suitable for matching against a genealogical database. Using the method, two-contributor DNA mixtures assayed using a commercial SNP typing kit can produce informative match results for both major and minor contributors.     

European validation of a Cannabis sativa 13-locus STR multiplex kit for genetic identification: A preliminary study

Cannabis sativa L. is a plant cultivated worldwide as a source of fiber, medicine and intoxicant. Traditionally, is divided into two main types: fiber type (hemp) and drug type (marijuana). Marijuana differs from hemp by the presence of a high quantity of the psychoactive drug, Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol. The development of a validated method using short tandem repeats (STRs) could serve as an intelligence tool to link cases by means of genetic individualization or association of cannabis samples. For this purpose, a 13-locus STR multiplex method was developed, optimized, and validated by the Department of Forensic Science at Sam Houston State University (SHSU) according to relevant ISFG and SWGDAM guidelines. The European community considers C. sativa plants illegals, even though its consumption is accepted in precise and limited places (coffee shops or cannabis clubs in Netherlands and Spain). However, there are different gaps in the legislation of some European countries. For instance, in Italy, “weed” possession is decriminalized. Although trafficking and sale are prohibited, possession of small quantities of marijuana is considered only a civil offense. In order to proceed with the kit evaluation and inter-laboratory comparison, SHSU DNA laboratory sent blind cannabis DNA samples of known genotypes. Blind DNA samples were analyzed in different laboratories with different sequencers and analysis conditions. In this article, the goals were: a) to demonstrate that 13-locus STR kit for C. sativa is robust enough and reproducible, in all forensic laboratories, and b) to show the applicability of the STR system in association with Cannabis sativa cases for intelligence purposes to link multiple cases by means of genetic individualization or association of cannabis samples.     

Evaluating population structure of Ecuador for forensic STR markers

The continuous admixture events among Europeans, Native Americans, and Africans occurred differently throughout the Ecuadorian territory, creating a diversified genetic composition. Therefore, to evaluate how the genetic diversity is partitioned along the country for 15 STRs, 842 admixed-population samples were analyzed. We also evaluated the effect of applying an adjustment for population structure when estimating LRs using a national database. The results showed that to accurately assess forensic evidence, the use of a national database may be justified with the application of an appropriate adjustment for population structure.     

Prediction of eye color from genetic data using Bayesian approach

Prediction of visible traits from genetic data in certain forensic cases may provide important information that can speed up the process of investigation. Research that has been conducted on the genetics of pigmentation has revealed polymorphisms that explain a significant proportion of the variation observed in human iris color. Here, on the basis of genetic data for the six most relevant eye color predictors, two alternative Bayesian network model variants were developed and evaluated for their accuracy in prediction of eye color. The first model assumed eye color to be categorized into blue, brown, green, and hazel, while the second variant assumed a simplified classification with two states: light and dark. It was found that particularly high accuracy was obtained for the second model, and this proved that reliable differentiation between light and dark irises is possible based on analysis of six single nucleotide polymorphisms and a Bayesian procedure of evidence interpretation.     

The impact of the principles of evidence interpretation on the structure and content of statements

The Forensic Science Service (FSS) has devoted appreciable effort to developing the application of the principles of evidence interpretation. Much of the work has been reported in previous papers in this journal, in particular those that develop a model for Case Assessment and Interpretation (CAI). The principles of interpretation are restated and the implications for structure and content of statements are described.     

Measuring the validity and reliability of forensic likelihood-ratio systems

There has been a great deal of concern recently about validity and reliability in forensic science. This paper reviews for a broad target audience metrics of validity and reliability (accuracy and precision) which have been applied in forensic voice comparison and which are potentially applicable in other branches of forensic science. The metric of validity is the log likelihood-ratio cost (C_llr), and the metric of reliability is an empirical estimate of credible intervals. A revised procedure for the calculation of credible intervals is introduced.     

A quantitative assessment of the extent and distribution of textile fibre transfer to persons involved in physical assault

Knowledge of the number of fibres transferred during a particular activity is essential for the interpretation of findings in similar criminal cases. In this regard, violent contacts and physical assaults still present a challenge, due to a lack of robust published data. Hereby, we present the outcome of an empirical study where different assault activities were simulated by a Jiu Jitsu team and participants were asked to play either the role of an aggressive ‘assailant’ or a defensive ‘victim’, wearing cotton garments (i.e., Gi’s). Four different scenarios were simulated in replicates (n = 5), each of them involving different intensity levels (low and high) and duration times (30 and 60 s). Results showed that approximately 1,000 to 44,000 fibres were cross-transferred between the participants’ garments, with noticeable differences between the different scenarios. These values were significantly larger than those published in previous studies and, therefore, suggested the possibility of a current underestimation of the number of fibres transferred in physical assaults. Furthermore, statistical analysis by ANOVA indicated that the all the variables tested (i.e., intensity level, duration time, and participants role) had a significant effect on the number of transferred fibres (p < 0.001) and, consequently, that some knowledge of the case circumstances may be important to make more educated estimations. This is the first time that such a methodology has been applied for the quantitative assessment of fibre transfer between participants in assault activities. Data are expected to help practitioners with the interpretation of findings in real casework and lead to a more robust evidential assessment.     

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part III: Operational applications and evaluation

The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts.This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science—Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29–37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science—Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38–50].In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts’ opinion, and which is usually not very informative.While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.     

A simple method for calculating the probability of excluding paternity with any number of codominant alleles

A simple formula for calculating the probability of excluding paternity with a system determined by any number of codominant alleles was devised. Two computer programs are also described, which can be used when the genetic system is much more complicated.