A Global Ranking of Political Science Departments

Rankings of academic institutions are key information tools for universities, funding agencies, students and faculty. The main method for ranking departments in political science, through peer evaluations, is subjective, biased towards established institutions, and costly in terms of time and money. The alternative method, based on supposedly 'objective' measures of outputs in scientific journals, has thus far only been applied narrowly in political science, using publications in a small number of US-based journals. An alternative method is proposed in this paper – that of ranking departments based on the quantity and impact of their publications in the 63 main political science journals in a given five-year period. The result is a series of global and easily updatable rankings that compare well with results produced by applying a similar method in economics.     

Global Democracy: A Symposium on a New Political Hope

The idea that the values and norms of democracy can also be applied to global politics is increasingly debated in academe. The six authors participating in this symposium are all advocates of global democracy, but there are significant differences in the way they envision its implementation. Some of the contributors discuss if and how substantial changes undertaken by states, mostly in their foreign policies, may also generate positive consequences in global politics. Other contributors address the nature of the international arena and the possible reforms it should undergo starting with the reform of international organizations. The debate combines theoretical aspects with normative proposals that could also be advanced in the political arena and offers a wide range of perspectives on the attempts to achieve a more democratic global political community.     

政治科学预测方法研究——以选举预测为例

预测是人类的基本认知活动。作为社会科学预测性研究的重要领域,选举预测是促进政治学理论和方法创新的动力。选举预测不仅限于民调,科学的选举预测可以划分为四类范式:意见聚合范式;模型范式;混合范式;大数据范式。每类范式包含若干种预测方法,不同预测方法在准确性、超前性、解释力、可重复性、中立性和预测成本等评判标准上各具优势,预测方法的选择是基于预测目标和应用场景的综合权衡。目前,选举预测领域呈现多元化、交叉互补、跨学科的发展趋势;其未来发展方向是“理论驱动”与“数据驱动”相结合、微观预测变量与宏观预测变量相结合、预测与解释相结合,以政治科学为基础,通过跨学科合作和前沿技术手段推进预测范式的创新,并在预测实践中不断更新升级。预测性研究与解释性研究可以构成“双螺旋”的共生互补关系,共同致力于增进人类对复杂政治活动的理解和研判,提升政治学研究的科学水平和政策应用价值。     

Forecasting the Political Economy of the Inner Solar System

Social structural methods are applied to forecast the political economy of the inner solar system to the 22nd century. One method considers structural indicators, specifically, population, social organization, environment, and technology. Another method examines the Tongan diaspora as an analog of human expansion into space. This future political economy could emerge as a consequence of user strain on a global electrical power grid that develops by 2050. Alternative energy needs could turn to space-based sources. If on-orbit space-based energy infrastructure provides the rationale, capability, and allure to see humans routinely living and working in space, their presence on the Moon and among the near-Earth asteroids can lead to a human diaspora to Mars and its moons. These events will build the multi-planet economy, the multi-world system of societies, and the transnational state. The development of Mars will reach a maturity of settlement from 2130 onward. As these potential events become history, capital would be transformed, and higher-order space logistics in a multi-world system of societies with its multi-planet economy would lay the foundation for a Solar System Federation. This federation constitutes transnational states among off-world human societies that could fill the vacuum of a fading Westphalian nation-state system on Earth.     

A Dynamic Model of Political Change Among Party Activists

In this article, we develop a dynamic model of aggregate attitudinal change among party activists in order to better understand the process by which new issues/cleavages divide major political parties. We build on existing research by developing a model of change that incorporates both conversion among continuing activists and the replacement of previous activists with newcomers who hold different views. We first explore such change among activists of the two major parties in the United States on the abortion issue. We then consider a number of alternative specifications of the model in order to generalize our findings. We conclude that conversion among continuing activists contributes in a substantial way to aggregate change among party activists by influencing the level of change, accelerating the change process, and sustaining change over time.     

全球生态治理的政治引导与实践

在现有的普遍利益和权力结构下,全球生态治理不可能以自上而下的方式一次性全部建成。需要将生态治理重新阐释为一个持续性的政治进程,在国家之间建立信任,获得全球视野与世界胸襟,解决在全球生态治理中所出现的认知冲突、伦理冲突、利益冲突、责任冲突,为全面解决生态问题搭建全球政治共识桥梁,并以原则政治原则、生境政治原则、责任政治原则为根本准则和价值导向,探讨气候权力规范,构建社会公正与气候资源平等分配的全球框架,为从根本上解决"生态何以得到恢复"和"人类何以实现自救"铺平广阔的政治道路。     

Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800–2000

This article examines how political institutional structures affect political instability. It classifies polities as autocracies or democracies based on three institutional dimensions: election of the executive, constraints on executive decision-making authority, and extent of political participation. It hypothesizes that strongly autocratic and democratic regimes will exhibit the greatest stability resulting from self-enforcing equilibria, whereby the maintenance of a polity's institutional structure is in the interest of political elites, whether through autocratic or democratic control. Institutionally inconsistent regimes (those exhibiting a mix of institutional characteristics of both democracy and autocracy) lack these self-enforcing characteristics and are expected to be shorter-lived. Using a log-logistic duration model, polity survival time ratios are estimated. Institutionally consistent polities are significantly more stable than institutionally inconsistent polities. The least stable political systems are dictatorships with high levels of political participation. The most unstable configuration for polities with an elected executive is one where the executive is highly constrained, but the electorate is very small.     

A Model of Political Competition in the Underlying Space of Ideology

This study makes use of the concept of ideology to answerimportant questions of political competition. I develop amulticandidate model in which voters use ideology as asimplifying device that helps them to choose a candidate in anoisy environment. Three important results arise for thehomogeneous-polity case. First, the candidate with moreresources is the one more likely to win the election. Second,a merger between two parties might yield to a higher expectedplurality for the candidate of the newly formed party. Third,political convulsion yields to a decrease in the expectedplurality for the incumbent candidate.     

Political instability and political terror: Global evidence on persistence

We test the hypotheses that fundamental characteristics in regional proximity, landlockedness, religious‐domination, legal origin, and income levels affect cross‐country differences in the persistence in political terror and political instability in 163 countries for the period 2010–2015. The empirical evidence is based on generalised method of moments. The hypotheses are that the following are associated with comparatively higher levels of persistence in political terror and political instability: regions with predominantly low income countries (Hypothesis 1); landlockedness (Hypothesis 2); Christian‐orientation (Hypothesis 3); French civil law (Hypothesis 4); and Low income (Hypothesis 5). The tested hypotheses are largely invalid. Only Hypotheses 5 and 2 are robustly investigated in the light of concerns about instrument proliferation. Hypothesis 2 is valid for political terror but not for political instability while Hypothesis 5 is neither valid for political instability nor for political terror.     

Counting the Cost of the Intifada: Consumption, Saving and Political Instability in Israel

In this paper we investigate some of the ways in whichshort-term variations in the magnitude of politicalinstability can impact on macroeconomic performance, takingthe example of Israel since 1987. Several indicators ofpolitical instability are found to have a significant impacton aggregate consumption and savings, and explain a large partof poor Israeli savings performance over recent years.     

Intergovernmental Grants: A Formal Model of Interrelated National and Subnational Political Decisions

Intergovernmental grants are based on the interrelated choicesof: (i) the national government deciding whether to offer thegrant; (ii) the national government determining grant conditions;(iii) the subnational government deciding whether to acceptthe grant; and (iv) the subnational government determining policy,including spending levels, upon grant receipt. Empirically andtheoretically, scholars often study these decisions separately,leading to an incomplete understanding of grant-related behavior.This article develops a noncooperative game theoretic modelthat simultaneously captures all four of these decisions. Thisapproach helps to better explain puzzles surrounding intergovernmentalgrants, including the ‘flypaper effect,’ asymmetricresponses of recipient governments to grant increases and decreases,the grant-acceptance decisions of subnational governments, andtradeoffs between the size of grants and the strings that areattached.     

Political Brand Equity Model: The Integration of Political Brands in Voter Choice

The voters’ choices about political parties have many similarities with how they make their choices about commercial brands. Therefore, political parties are now constantly applying the concept and strategies of brand management to make the political product attractive, appealable, trustable, differentiable, a source of long-term relationships, and a decision-making driver. Furthermore, the political parties have to play an active role in the community's political socialization processes, which rely heavily on branding strategies. Because, the party equity is largely based on the community's social gregariousness that has profound effect on the electorates' propensity to participate in the politics. This study has deeply explored and broadened the concept of party equity analogous to commercial brand equity typology by developing a politics-specific brand equity model. This model demonstrates the integration of political brands in voter choice. Empirically, this model has been validated by collecting 550 valid responses from the constituency of District Gujrat, Pakistan. A careful analysis of these responses through structural equation modeling methodology has revealed that political parties vary according to the outcomes of their role in the political socialization process of the communities, loyalty, and voters’ attitude. Parties that have favorable role in the socialization process have strong party knowledge and thus have high party equity as compared to competing political parties, which have a weak position of party knowledge. Similarly, this study provides the roadmap and guidelines for the political parties to manage their party equity. Similarly, the model would be able to facilitate political parties in comparing different constituencies on the basis of their diversified social dynamics and political knowledge and in the development of a constituency-based manifesto, also termed “localized manifesto,” to further enhance their vote bank.     

Gender Norms and Women's Political Representation: A Global Analysis of Cabinets, 1979–2009

What role does the international diffusion of gender norms play in determining recent increases in women's political representation? We argue that norm diffusion has larger positive effects on women's cabinet representation than on women's legislative representation. We also show that within cabinets, norm diffusion affects low‐prestige appointments more than high‐prestige appointments. We test these arguments using an original database of ministers from 1979 to 2009 and find that the association of women's representation with three separate indicators of international diffusion—levels of women's representation among neighboring states, levels of women's representation among intergovernmental organization partners, and time since ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women—is consistent with our arguments.     

Death Penalty: The Political Foundations of the Global Trend Towards Abolition

The death penalty is like no other punishment. Its continued existence in many countries of the world creates political tensions within these countries and between governments of retentionist and abolitionist countries. After the Second World War, more and more countries have abolished the death penalty. This article argues that the major determinants of this global trend towards abolition are political, a claim which receives support in a quantitative cross-national analysis from 1950 to 2002. Democracy, democratisation, international political pressure on retentionist countries and peer group effects in relatively abolitionist regions all raise the likelihood of abolition. There is also a partisan effect, as abolition becomes more likely if the chief executive’s party is left wing-oriented. Cultural, social and economic determinants receive only limited support. The global trend towards abolition will go on if democracy continues to spread around the world and abolitionist countries stand by their commitment to press for abolition all over the world.

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