布什的战略遗产及其前景

布什执政7年来，先后推出了带有很强冒险性和进攻性的战略原则“布什主义”和“新布什主义”，这些原则推行的后果，无论是收益或损害，都将作为美国的战略遗产传承下去。梳理和总结布什的战略遗产，有助于分析研究今后美国全球战略的走向。     

美国对库尔德独立问题的政策及其发展前景北大核心CSSCISSCI

"伊斯兰国"被击溃后,中东大片地区将出现权力真空。伊拉克库尔德人的独立公投拉开了"后‘伊斯兰国’"时代中东地缘政治秩序重组的序幕。美国与库尔德武装在打击"伊斯兰国"的战争中结成了密切的合作关系。在当前阶段,美国出于对"伊斯兰国"作战、维持伊拉克现政府稳定、维系地区国家关系等原因,反对库尔德地方政府的独立公投。但库尔德人是该地区对美国最友善的力量之一,其控制区处于非常关键的地理位置,在美国未来中东战略格局中可以发挥不可替代的作用。随着伊拉克、叙利亚等国的政治局面的变化,美国对库尔德人政策还存在进一步调整的可能,这势必会对未来中东的国际政治格局产生重要影响。     

转型时期奥斯曼土耳其和英帝国在中东的角力及其遗产

阿卜杜勒·哈米德二世时代,帝国主义和殖民主义已然是主导世界秩序的压倒性力量,奥斯曼帝国被迫祭出了泛伊斯兰主义的旗帜,以此进行最后的抗争。泛伊斯兰主义在此阶段是一种综合的救亡图存方案,是用伊斯兰身份装扮的伊斯兰民族主义,而不仅仅是意识形态。英国和土耳其关系在此阶段更多地表现为英国对奥斯曼土耳其战略性领土的吞食,而奥斯曼土耳其被迫吞咽这些恶果。土耳其独立战争时期,文明和种族的优劣一度成为英国主导的话语并深刻作用于其对土耳其政策,集中体现为西方试图将土耳其人永远逐出君士坦丁堡。凯末尔主义者以民族主义为主,辅之以伊斯兰主义完成了政治动员,确定了建立边界明晰和领土有限的共和国这一目标,完成了救亡图存的使命。奥斯曼帝国和英帝国这一时期的竞逐发生在世界局势转型的时代,英国部分地填补了奥斯曼帝国解体造成的权力、安全和意识形态的真空,由此造成了现代中东诸多结构性的问题,深刻地塑造了中东未来地缘政治的走向。双方的竞逐,注解着这一时期权力的转移和意识形态的抗争,也是探讨英帝国在中东遗产的重要起点。     

俄罗斯法人形态的立法构造及其对中国的启示

俄罗斯民事立法中的法人概念使法人的独立财产可以建立在所有权基础上,也可以和经营权或业务管理权相关联.法人成员对法人债务可以承担有限责任,也可以承担无限责任或连带责任.这样的立法构造使俄罗斯的法人主体范围呈现开放特点.俄罗斯法人形态及其责任的立法构造给我们提供了重要启示,相对于人的财产的独立只要求财产客观的独立状态,法人财产的来源基础可以不限于所有权,但不影响法人责任的承担.法人责任与成员责任可以有不同的组合,成员是否承担有限责任不影响法人人格构成.     

库尔德人独立建国问题的突破及其有限性

伊拉克库尔德地区政府2017年9月25日举行了独立公投,独立公投在表达库尔德人意愿的同时,遭遇巨大的外部压力.目前,公投结果业已冻结,地区政府总统巴尔扎尼本人的政治生命也暂时终结.形势表明,维持现有秩序的力量依然强大,库尔德人自身的整合远未完成.当下,伊拉克库尔德人独立公投对于地缘政治的搅动作用已然显现,西亚地区脆弱的政治平衡面临新的挑战,而域外大国的介入则导致伊拉克的重建和区域秩序的重组面临诸多变数.由伊拉克库尔德人居住区陷入混乱而造成的问题和负面影响,并不亚于一个独立的库尔德人国家.     

欧盟安全和防务的不同概念辨析

本文的主旨是针对欧盟安全和防务研究领域中一些未加明确区别、交错使用的概念进行探讨。通过阐述几个互有关联、内涵不同、层次各异的基本概念及其发展演变过程 ,提出了自己的观点。     

杨树花提取物及其复方制剂的药理学试验

通过药敏试验、联合抗菌作用试验、抗细菌感染试验及抗炎试验,对杨树花提取物及其复方制剂的药理作用进行了研究.结果显示,杨树花水提液及其复方制剂对大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌标准菌和致病菌有中度抑菌活性;杨树花水提液的乙酸乙酯及正丁醇萃取物对大肠杆菌标准菌和致病菌、沙门氏菌标准菌也有中度抑菌活性,但对沙门氏菌致病菌的抑菌活性较低,杨树花与黄芩联合抗菌具有相加作用.抗细菌感染及抗炎试验结果证实,杨树花水提液及复方制剂在昆明系小白鼠体内对大肠杆菌具有抑菌作用,高、低剂量杨树花水提液可使小鼠耳肿胀度明显降低,其抑制率分别为65.0%和51.6%.结果表明,杨树花提取物及其复方制剂具有明显的抑菌、抗炎作用.     

美国全球战略重心东移及其目标

美国推动苏联解体后,成为世界上唯一的超级大国。为了维护其世界霸权地位,近20年来,美国全球战略重心进行了三次大调整：通过北约东扩,将战略重心从欧洲转为欧亚并重;通过阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争,将战略重心从欧洲转向亚洲：2010年是美国战略重心全方位转移到亚洲的一年,其目标是：维护和扩大在亚洲的经贸利益;防止被排挤出亚洲区域合作组织或机制;围堵中国和俄罗斯。在此形势下,中国将继续坚定地走和平发展道路,坚持互利共赢的开放战略,同世界各国一道推动建设持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界。     

“自自联合”及其对日本内政外交的影响

〕１９９８ 年１２ 月１９ 日,日本执政的自民党与自由党达成联合协议,定于１９９９年１ 月改组内阁。“自自联合”体制是自民党参议院选举受挫、党内派系斗争激化的产物。届时,日本政坛将呈保守化特点,日美关系的基轴地位将进一步加强,中日关系也将因此多有波折     

莫迪政府时期印度国防产业的本土化发展

建国后,印度一直推动国防产业本土化发展。莫迪执政后,为实现其战略意图,以“印度制造”及“印度自力更生”运动为政策引领,设置国防产品禁止进口清单,推动国防产业机构及政策改革,激励公有及私营企业的参与积极性。在本土化基础上,进一步发展与国防伙伴之间的产品联合生产与研发,替代武器系统及组件的完全进口,并致力于对友好国家的国防产品出口。在政府推动及改革激励下,印度国防产业本土化比例有一定程度提升。然而受制造业水平、财政投入、机构效能等多种因素制约,未来印度国防产业本土化目标实现程度不容乐观。     

激情似火--何塞·马蒂其人、其事、其文

“我的诗将在绿草下成长 ,我也将成长。”这是何塞·马蒂生前对自己的预言。1 0 0多年后的今天 ,我们看到 ,何塞·马蒂的诗篇不仅已然生机勃勃地在他祖国的绿茵下成长 ,而且在整个西班牙美洲文坛辽阔的草原上生长和蔓延 ,成为拉美现代主义诗歌的先驱 ;而马蒂的革命精神和伟大思     

Machiavelli's Legacy: Domestic Politics and International Conflict

Research examining the effect of regime type on conflict has focused on the democracy/autocracy continuum expounded in the political philosophies of liberal thinkers such as Kant and Schumpeter. While this concentration has yielded impressive results (democratic peace), it seems plausible that other conceptions of regime type may yield similar success. This paper examines the philosophy of Machiavelli and develops a measure of his "imperial regimes." These states, which can either be democratic or autocratic, should exhibit an increased propensity to initiate international conflict. Testing this contention in Renaissance Italy (1250–1494) and the modern international system (1920–1992), this paper finds strong empirical support. Machiavelli's views illuminate key differences between democracies and autocracies that have been previously overlooked. Thus, it deepens rather than replaces our conception of how domestic institutions affect international conflict.     

Legacy Problems: China's Taiwan Dilemma

The particular difficulties that Taiwan's new administration faces are paradoxical, for their origin no longer has to do with ensuring the continuing existence of the state. That seems assured. Rather, the challenges arise because U.S. and China's diplomacy in the 1970s assumed that Taiwan was going to disappear, but it failed to do so. This fact created an embarrassing—and probably insoluble—long-term problem for China. To be sure, much commentary still suggests that if not on the verge, Taiwan and China are at least on a one-way road to unification, shadowed by the concern that China will not wait forever, ready to “impose” unity when it is finally fed up.     

张宝驹和他的壁画

张宝驹热爱壁画,就与他热爱乡村差不多一个性质,都缘于对过往岁月的一种执著,对昨日生活的一种深情守护.在现时情境里,张宝驹以一种过时的艺术语言,传达着他并算不得时尚和响亮的声音,这使他状似一个时代的落伍之人,羞怯躲避着舆论的风口与浪尖.……     

The Foreign Policy Legacy of Barack Obama

Barack Obama finishes his second term with a mixed but positive foreign policy legacy. America’s global standing is much improved from the waning days of the George W. Bush administration eight years ago. Obama’s most notable achievements were the international agreement slowing Iran’s progress toward nuclear weapons capability and diplomatic normalisation with Cuba. On the other side of the ledger were his failure to extricate America from military overextension in the greater Mideast and from the global policing mindset that produced that overextension. Also marring his record was his incoherent response to Syria’s deadly civil war and Libya’s collapse into anarchy following the 2011 international intervention.     

Colonial Legacy and Foreign Aid: Decomposing the Colonial Bias

It is well-known that donors give considerably more foreign aid to former colonies than to countries lacking past colonial ties. Unfortunately, we know relatively little about why this is the case. For one, there is almost never a theoretical justification for the inclusion of colonial history in statistical models. For the other, the only explicitly made rationale by Bueno de Mesquita and Smith (2009) actually predicts an interpretational problem: colonial history not only increases a former colony’s saliency to the donor, but also has left deep marks on recipients’ social and political institutions today. Both aspects shape how much aid a donor transfers to the recipient. This leaves ambiguous the meaning of the routinely found positive, sizable, and significant coefficient of colonial history on aid flows. We solve the inferential quandary by using a decomposition approach from labor econometrics. Our results show that about 75–100% of the colony effect on foreign aid stems from the greater saliency that donors give to policy concessions from former colonies.     

India,Pakistan and the Legacy of September 11th

While the physical effects of the attacks on the United States and the corresponding 'war on terrorism' seem to be the most direct consequences of September 11th, the most noteworthy consequence is, in fact, the changing world order and the newly emerging concepts of security. India and Pakistan, based on their geography, politics, and domestic experiences, are two key participants to this war on terrorism. By reviewing the regional relationships, economic impacts, and the Kashmir situation since September 11th, it will be possible to see that the success of this new security order in South Asia is contingent on India and Pakistan's cooperation. The leaders of these two countries will have to balance their domestic challenges and the demands of the international community.