An Assessment of Future Patterns of Security in Central Asia

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, various social problems left over have emerged in some Central Asian states, thus threatening social stability in the region. Under globalization, the former Soviet republics in Central Asia have made great efforts to develop constructive relations with others in the hope of strengthening their security. However, the threat of terrorism, extremism and separatism still exists. These non-traditional security issues play a role in current international politics, and the countries in the region are trying to meet new challenges.     

Following the Party in Time of War? The Implications of Elite Consensus

Prominent perspectives in the study of conflict point to two factors that exert substantial influence on public opinion about foreign intervention: (1) news about casualties and (2) signals from partisan elites. Past work is limited, however, in what it can say about how these two factors interact. We present an experiment designed to understand the surprisingly common scenario where elites send competing messages about whether the public should support war or oppose it—and these messages do not coincide with party divisions. We find that partisans are generally insensitive to news about casualties, but they become noticeably more sensitive when they perceive within-party disputes over support for the war. Independents, however, respond to news of casualties irrespective of what messages elites send. These findings shed light on when and how the public responds to competing and unclear cues and speak to the role of public opinion in determining conflict outcomes and democratic foreign policy-making more broadly.     

Making a Cold War in the Near East: Turkey and the Origins of the Cold War, 1945–1947

During the post-war negotiations in the years of 1945 and 1946, the Soviets launched a bitter war of nerves against Turkey in order to establish a military base in Istanbul and share control of the Straits. It was crucial for Britain that the USSR be prevented from gaining any influence in Turkey. However, as Britain was in no position to support Turkey financially, American authorities encouraged by London and Ankara took over the responsibility for Turkey. This articles examines the Great Powers rivalry over Turkey and Turkey’s response to it. It argues that regional factors other than US–Soviet confrontation, such as Turkey’s security search against the Soviets, also played a crucial part in starting the Cold War in the Near East.     

The Ghosts of War Criminals in the Yasukuni Shrine

On the occasion of the 60~thanniversary of the vic-tory of the world anti-fascism war as w ell as theChinese anti-Japanese w ar, when people every-where are drawing lessons from the nightm are ofthe w ar and keeping the history in m ind for thesake of m aintaining the w orld peace,Japan is stillhaunted by its idea of m ilitarism and the Japaneseleaders are also claim ing to continue their visits tothe Y asukuni Shrine w here a large num ber of warcrim inals are honored. This has triggered of…     

Not Whether,But When? Governments’ Use of Militias in War

Abstract

Although government use of militias during civil conflict can ultimately undermine state authority, governments still use militias for battlefield assistance. This paper examines the selectivity of government decisions to use militias by disaggregating civil conflict to the level of battle phases. Civil-conflict battles typically consist of four phases: preparation, clear, hold, and build. I argue that governments decide to use militias based on the strength of government security forces, operational advantages of militias, and the type of battle phase. Governments will limit the use of militias during key battle phases that are likely to receive increased media attention unless a victory secured by government security forces is unlikely or militias hold an operational advantage. A comparative analysis of the offensive operations in Tikrit and Ramadi during Iraq’s war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) lends initial support to this theory.     

America''''s Difficulties after the War and the International Political Consequences of the War

The U. S. A will succeed militarily in the Iraq war. However, it is far away from the true meaning of victory in war defined by distinguished strategic thinker B. H. Liddell Hart, even inaccessible. Using Hart's own word, the true victory in war is to attain a better state of peace and improve the quality of life for the survivors after the war is over. What await America after the basic success in Iraq are grave military and political difficulties. Moreover, there may be bigger economic and financial troubles as well.     

An elusive community? Lesbian usage of the Internet in South Africa

Abstract

The initial celebratory response that hailed the Internet as some kind of utopia has been tempered, and gender scholars increasingly interrogate the Internet in relation to gender (in)justice. There is still a scarcity of work that engages with non-normative identities, and while there is a growing visibility of gay sexuality in the literature, lesbian usage is seldom considered – particularly in South Africa. Against the background of homophobia and limited Internet access, the article first presents an overview of sites relevant to lesbian users by mapping the South African lesbian web sphere, and categorising dating, lifestyle and political sites. It then considers the responses of lesbian users of the Internet as pertains to the value they ascribe to it. While the overview of the websites suggests a fragmented or elusive online lesbian community, the respondents insist on the value of the Internet as a space for community engagement. This contradiction points to the potential for personal and political engagement through the Internet – one that is arguably not yet fully realised.     

Kill,Capture, or Defend? The Effectiveness of Specific and General Counterterrorism Tactics Against the Global Threats of the Post-9/11 Era

This article examines the effectiveness of contemporary counterterrorism strategy in the global fight against terrorism from 2001 to 2011. We seek to maximize the comparative approach more than most existing studies by examining three tactics (killing, capturing, and defending) applied at three scopes (leader, operational, and broad) on three levels (global, movement [jihadi], and organizational [al-Qaeda and Taliban]), while also measuring effectiveness along several quantitative, qualitative, and spatial dimensions. Drawing from resource theory (and its derived analytical approaches) and empirical terrorism studies, we formulate competing hypotheses that are quantitatively tested using a dataset with several original aspects. We find that both killing and capturing can have large effects but these effects vary based on both states' and terrorists' targeting strategies. The most interesting specific findings are that drone strikes seem counterproductive for counterterrorism while renditions seem effective. However, these effects were dwarfed by those of increased defenses, which reduce attacks in the West while redirecting them to other areas in the world. While we find the theory mostly sound, though in need of refocus, we believe current policy trends foretell an increase in terrorist activity in the coming years.     

“No More War?” Belgian Reception of the League of Nations and Arbitration After the First World War

After the horrors of the First World War, different initiatives were taken to introduce and institutionalise principles of international organisation such as collective security and arbitration in international relations. The League of Nations was founded, and different bilateral and multilateral arbitration treaties were concluded. This article studies the reception of these internationalist principles by Belgian policymakers and diplomats. I will argue that this reception initially ranged from cautiousness to clear scepticism. Although an evolution towards increased trust in collective security and arbitration can be observed between 1919 and 1929, Belgian policymakers' and diplomats' views during this period remained predominantly based on realist premises and beliefs.     

Civil War Settlements,Size of Governing Coalition,and Durability of Peace in Post–Civil War States

We examine the ways in which the size of the governing coalition in a post–civil war state affects the durability of the peace. Previous studies relate the durability of the peace to the outcome of the civil war, the extent and forms of power-sharing arrangements, and the role of third-party security guarantors. We argue that the way conflict terminates and the power-sharing agreements between former protagonists structure the composition of governing coalition in the post–civil war state. Any settlement to civil war that broadens the size of the governing coalition should increase actors' incentives to sustain the peace rather than renew the armed conflict. Peace is more likely to fail where the governing coalition is smaller because those excluded from the governing coalition have little to lose from resuming armed rebellion. To test these propositions, we analyze data on post–civil war peace spells from 1946–2005.     

From Jerusalem to Baghdad? Israel and the War in Iraq

The prevailing opinion that the Bush administration took the United States to war against Iraq in March 2003 under false pretenses has led many to believe that Israel's security was the secret rationale for the war. According to this "war for Israel" thesis, neoconservative policymakers in the Bush administration, the pro-Israel lobby in the United States, and Israel's government all pushed the United States to go to war with Iraq for the sake of Israel's security. This article critically assesses this controversial claim and examines Israel's role in the U.S. decision to invade Iraq. I argued that while neoconservatives were instrumental in promoting the Iraq war, Israel was not their primary concern and that although American Jewish organizations and the Israeli government did largely support the Iraq war, they did not seek it or actively lobby for it.     

Can oil-reliant countries democratize? An assessment of the role of civil society in Algeria

A cursory look around the world shows that few oil-reliant countries can be categorized as democracies, particularly those in the Middle East. In fact, many studies have suggested that oil wealth hinders democratization. The recent “Arab Spring” and subsequent political instability in oil-producing states such as Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria gives rise to questions regarding the prospects for democracy in these types of countries. This article provides an analysis of the possible role that civil society may play in democratization in oil-reliant states by looking at the case of Algeria. I argue that the seemingly meaningless and artificial acts of “liberalization” initiated by the Algerian government in the late 1980s, which initially allowed civic associations to form, have provided an opening for some civic associations to organize and oppose the government. This process of liberalization, regardless of how empty it may have seemed at first, has “opened floodgates” that now cannot be closed. Thus, the recent protests in Algeria, and continued opposition to the government, can be seen as directly facilitated by the government's prior liberalization and opening of the system to civic associations.     

The dragon in the room: the China factor in the development of US–India ties in the Cold War

ABSTRACT

In recent years, as China has continued to rise as an economic, political and military power, there has been increasing consideration of its role in shaping US–India relations over the last two decades. However, this article, considering the period 1949–1979, shows that American and Indian perceptions of and policy toward China shaped the US–India relationship even during the Cold War. In doing so, the article seeks not just to bring China back into the story of past US–India relations, but also shed light on the China–India–US triangle of today and of tomorrow.     

An Overall Review of the International Situation in the Third Quarter of 2004

I.Iraqcontinuedtobeturbulent,andthepost-warreconstructioninIraqkepttough.Inthepastmonths,PresidentBushhadstrivedtodefendhisIraqipolicyasbefore.Butthechangeofthedo-mesticandinternationalsituationhadturnedmuchmoreadverselyagainsthispolicyonIraq.The″9·11″CommissionReportsaidthatnoevidenceshowedSaddamHussein'sregimehadgivenanydirectas-sistancetoterrorists.Whileconfrontedwiththepro-longedviolenceinIraq,Bushhadtoadmit,forthefirsttime,thathehadmiscalculatedthesituationinpostwarIraq,whereinsu…     

An Overall Review of the International Situation in the Second Quarter of 2004

I.AturbulentsituationinIraqhadkeptdeteri-oratingalongwithrepercussionsof″prisonerabuse″story.WhilepoliticalreconstructionmadesomeprogressdissociationappearedintheU.S.-ledallianceregardingstationingtroopsinIraq.CombatsbetweenIraqiclericmilitantsandforeigncoalitionforceswereexpandingandfiercefightingsoccurredinseveralmajorcities.MorethanonehundredAmericasoldiersdiedinAprilsettingasingle-monthrecordsinceIraqWarbrokeout.Ab-ductionofforeignhostagesroseoneafteranotheraccompaniedbyfrequentterro…     

Visible Counterterrorism Measures in Urban Spaces—Fear-Inducing or Not?

Many scholars working within the tradition of critical studies are sceptical of the presence of visible security measures in urban spaces, arguing that they cause fear and facilitate the political control of citizens. A study carried out in Denmark in 2011 sought to capture, describe, and rank factors impacting positively or negatively on the feelings of safety of Danish citizens, when being in a crowded place. Surprisingly, the response to security measures like fences, cameras, and uniformed guards was positive. More visible security apparently reinforced feelings of safety. This article discusses the findings and points to, amongst others, a high level of societal trust as one possible explanation.     

War, ‘strategic communication’ and the violence of non-recognition

Contemporary Western war-fighting is animated by the fictitious imagination of a war free from antagonism. In this logic, winning wars is about winning the ‘hearts and minds’ of local populations, about persuasion rather than confrontation. In recent years, the concept of ‘strategic communication’ (SC) has been elevated to the top echelons of strategic thinking in United States military circles, focusing attention on how to communicate ‘effectively’ with local populations. Via an analysis of the concept of SC, this article examines the ethico-political dimensions of contemporary Western-led ‘population-centric’ war. Through a reading inspired by Judith Butler's recent work in Precarious life (London: Verso 2006) and Frames of war (London: Verso 2009), and an analysis that turns on the link between ethics and ontology, I reflect on the significance of the ‘communications turn’ in warfare for our study of war in ontological terms.     

Is this Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism

We analyze a seemingly simple question: When should government share private information that may be useful to terrorists? Policy makers' answer to this question has typically been “it is dangerous to share information that can potentially help terrorists.” Unfortunately, this incomplete response has motivated a detrimental increase in the amount of information government keeps private or labels “sensitive but unclassified.” We identify two distinct types of private information that are potentially useful to terrorists and identify the range of conditions under which sharing each can enhance counterterrorism efforts. Our results highlight the complex trade-offs policy makers face in deciding how much openness is right in a world where protecting the people from terrorists has become a central duty of government.