1999年以来印尼马鲁古地区民族分离运动探析

作为一个多元民族与多元宗教的岛屿国家,印度尼西亚民族分离运动问题十分突出。本文阐述1999年以来印尼马鲁古地区民族分离运动产生和发展的过程,并试图探究其产生的原因。随着印尼地区自治的逐步实施以及全国地方直接选举的逐步实行,在民主化改革的背景之下,印度尼西亚的民族分离运动问题将面临一个新的前景。     

印度东北分离主义运动与印度政府的对策

印度东北部的分离主义运动持续时间之长、演变之复杂是第三世界国家中罕见的。本文在考察印度东北部族分离主义运动历程的基础上,分析其历史、地理、政治、经济与文化等方面的根源。印度政府从促进民族和解、增强国家认同的理念出发,采取了一系列应对之策,并取得了一定的效果,也暴露出一些问题。全面研究这一案例不仅有助于加深对于印度民族政策和联邦体制的认识,而且对面临三种极端势力挑战的中国颇有借鉴意义。     

奈保尔：后殖民时代的印度书写——“殖民与后殖民文学中的印度书写”研究系列之三

奈保尔曾经三次到印度进行文化寻根,对于印度文明自有比较独特的观察和论述.他的印度叙事与殖民文学时期西方人的印度书写存在着暗合之处.本文即以后殖民理论为方法,对于奈保尔的印度书写进行分析对比,找寻殖民文学与后殖民书写中的学理关联.     

印度地方政党及其政治影响

印度的地方政党总体上有种族民族主义政党、教派主义政党和种姓政党三大类型。它们的产生与独立以来社会阶级结构和种姓结构的变化有关,是国大党高度集权体制催生的地方主义兴起的产物。它打破了传统的权力平衡,改变了人民院的权力结构,也使得印度的政党政治走向地方化,改变未来联邦—邦的关系模式。     

Political representation in India: Enlarging the perspective

ABSTRACT

Democratic theory has recently been marked by a renewed interest in political representation that is manifest in, and proceeds from, a series of theoretical works that radically open up the concept of representation. This introductory article briefly presents some of the key theoretical propositions that are brought forward by this body of literature, but also by anthropological works on South Asia, namely (i) the intrinsic plurality of the meanings and forms of political representation; (ii) the centrality and pervasiveness of representation processes in political life; and (iii) the constructivist dimension of political representation. As I introduce the four papers in this Special Issue, which collectively demonstrate the heuristic value of an engagement with such debates to understand contemporary Indian politics, I insist that what is at stake is not so much a “crisis” of political representation as a series of events and evolutions that question received knowledge about political representation in India.     

美国的政党全国代表大会

今年7月26日至29日,美国民主党在波士顿举行全国代表大会;8月30日至9月2日,共和党也将在纽约举行全国代表大会。在总统选举年,美国各政党举行全国代表大会不仅成为美国政治特有的制度之一,也是美国政治文化中一道独特的风景线。     

美国对外战略再思考--《抉择:全球统治还是全球领导》介评

当前,美国国内围绕国家安全问题正在展开独立建国以来的第三次大辩论。如果说此前诸多对布什政府对外政策持批评态度的人,一直未能提出一套有说服力的主张进而扬起一面大旗的话,那么,2004年3月出版的由美国前总统国家安全事务助理布热津斯基所著的《抉择:全球统治还是全球领导》一书显然对他们大有助益。布氏在书中从六个方面阐述了其美国对外战略再思考后的基本观点。     

Useful Knowledge: Snouck Hurgronje and Islamic Insurgency in Aceh

Christiaan Snouck Hurgronje (1858-1936), a Dutch scholar of Islam, served as a “military anthropologist” during the Aceh war in the Dutch East Indies. The Acehnese fighters viewed their anti-colonial struggle against the Dutch as a jihad, construing themselves religious martyrs fighting “infidel invaders,” and carrying out suicide attacks with a machete or dagger. To combat this insurgency Snouck Hurgronje, one of the first Westerners to visit Mecca and author of many books on Islam, developed the so-called “Aceh method,” which became the basis of modern Dutch counterinsurgency strategy. This article addresses the question: what can we learn from the life and times of Snouck Hurgronje?     

Political leadership at state level in India: Continuity and change

ABSTRACT

Possible explanations are discussed in this article for the paucity of studies regarding political leadership, especially at the state level, in a well-functioning electoral democracy such as India with many parties and leaders. The article argues that such studies can be useful in making sense of the political and economic changes/shifts and developments of a particular state over a period that may have national impact. The article further argues that there has been a perceptible shift not only in terms of social composition but also in the “language” of politics used by the emergent generation of political leaders cutting across the party lines. The change has coincided with the rise of state-level parties and leaders in the post-Congress era followed by the ascendance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).     

美印之间的反恐合作

印度与美国的反恐合作在“9·11”之后有了明显加强,双方在军事行动、联合军演、信息情报、法律制度等各个领域的合作得到全面提升。其原因除了同为恐怖主义的受害国外,还有进一步提升两国关系和制衡中国、打压巴基斯坦的企图。但两国的合作关系也将受美国与巴基斯坦的反恐合作、印度与伊朗合作关系以及美印之间固有的信任危机、法律差异等因素的制约。印美深化反恐合作的道路并非平坦无阻。     

Recent Political Developments in India and Their Effects

In March 2017,Narendra Modi led his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to victory in state elections,among which he gained parliamentary election of Uttar Pradesh (state in northern India),known as the weather vane of Indian elections.Back in 2014,the BJP had already won a simple majority in Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament),bringing an end to more than 30 years of coalition government.Now,the BJP is exhibiting stronger presence as a one-party-rule at both federal and local levels,with no counter-balance from the Indian National Congress,local parties,or left wing parties now or in the foreseeable future.This increases the likelihood of Modi's re-election as prime minister in 2019.Obviously,Indian political development is characterized by complexity,accidental factors and intrinsic logic,which will definitely exert great influence on the future of India.     

It Is Not Necessary to Follow U.S. Leadership

The South China Sea dispute has a long history.Regardless of the principles set out by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea(DOC) signed by the foreign ministers of China and ASEAN member countries on November 4th,2002,some countries have     

金融危机与美国经济霸权:历史与政治的解读

对于当前金融危机的成因及其对美国经济霸权的影响,国际、国内意见纷呈.本文试图以历史和政治视角,从解剖实力与霸权这对概念入手,分析美经济霸权的现状和前景.文章从时空条件、发展空间、国际信誉、支配渠道、军事拉动等五方面进行论证,认为此次金融危机是冷战后美各种矛盾累积并发的结果,美经济霸权陷入某种结构性衰弱.但因其经济实力尤其是综合国力依然强劲,断言美从此走向衰落还为时尚早,美未来命运很大程度上取决于奥巴马变革.     

Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is in danger of capsizing in a perfect storm of insurgency that mimics operations and tactics witnessed in Iraq. This article assesses this insurgency and the re-emergent Taliban. The common view of the Taliban as simply a radical Afghan Islamist movement is overly simple, for that organization has been able to build on tribal kinship networks and a charismatic mullah phenomenon to mobilize a critical and dynamic rural base of support. This support, buttressed by Talib reinforcements from Pakistan's border areas, is enough to frustrate the U.S.-led Coalition's counterinsurgency strategy. At the operational level, the Taliban is fighting a classic “war of the flea,” while the Coalition continues to fight the war largely according to the Taliban “game plan.” This is resulting in its losing the war in Afghanistan one Pashtun village at a time.     

The Nonlinear Effect of Information on Political Attention: Media Storms and U.S. Congressional Hearings

Agenda-setting scholars have claimed that the typical punctuated pattern of governmental attention is a consequence of disproportionate information processing. Yet these claims remain unsubstantiated. We tackle this challenge by considering mass media coverage as a source of information for political actors and by examining the relationship between preceding media information and subsequent governmental attention. Employing data capturing U.S. media attention and congressional hearings (1996–2006), we find that the effects of media attention on congressional attention are conditioned by the presence of “media storms”—sudden and large surges in media attention to a given topic. A one-story increase in media attention has a greater effect on congressional attention in the context of a media storm, since media storms surpass a key threshold for catching policymakers’ attention. We find evidence that the influence of media attention on political attention is nonlinear; agenda-setting operates differently when the media are in storm mode.     

India and Pakistan: Interpreting the Divergence of Two Political Trajectories

While suggestions were made in the 1990s that Pakistani and Indian political trajectories were converging as Pakistan took steps towards democratisation and India showed increasing signs of authoritarian centralisation, the following analysis offers a more historically sensitive view that suggests the opposite is true. In over fifty years of independence, institutional and societal structures have worked to create the political systems that we see on the Indian subcontinent today, and have helped define the potentially explosive Indo-Pakistan relationship so threatening in today's world. By analysing the ways in which different historical legacies act upon the current political cultures in both India and Pakistan, we engage in a fuller understanding of the contributing factors to the status quo in each. Further, historical analysis may shed some light on the expected trajectories of these two countries as they attempt to reinvent themselves at the beginning of the twenty-first century.     

Explaining Civil-Military Relations in Complex Political Environments: India and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective

This article argues that military intervention into politics can only be understood by studying both the nature of threats and of domestic political arrangements. I offer a theory of the military in politics built around the interaction between threat configuration, political institutionalization, and civilian government legitimacy. The argument is tested with paired-comparison case studies of Indian and Pakistani civil-military relations since independence. Despite their similarities at the time of partition, these two militaries took completely different political trajectories. The cases reveal how structures of domestic politics interact with military threat perceptions to explain civilians' ability to maintain varying levels of control over the military.     

试析美国对印军备出口政策的变化

布什政府将印度作为遏制中国崛起、推动全球民主化、反恐和反扩散的战略伙伴,为此在事实上承认印度的核国家地位,向其转让高技术、空间技术、民用核物项和技术及先进军事装备等,以加强印度实力。美国这一对印新政策,将严重冲击国际防扩散机制,且不利于南亚地区的安全与稳定。