暴力方式与民心向背：寻找治理族群叛乱的条件组合

治理族群叛乱的目标既包括土地的控制,也包括人的控制,这是治理族群叛乱区别于其他形式叛乱的特点之一。人的控制实际包含两个内容,既包括人心向背,也包括人员数量的控制。人心向背关乎民众支持,而争取民众支持的必要性在于,虽然拥有民众支持并不必然导致叛乱的平息,但是没有民众支持是不能平息叛乱的。在族群叛乱已经发生的情况下,国家政府只有赢得更多当地民众的支持,才能成功治理叛乱。根据冲突各方的暴力行为方式及其对当地民众支持的影响,成功平息叛乱应具备国家政府有区别使用暴力、叛乱组织无区别使用暴力、当地温和派主导平叛行动等三个必要条件,以争取更多民众支持。这三个条件构成的条件组合,可以有效控制和减少叛乱组织能够招募到的人员数量,只要国家政府的平叛战略能够有效控制叛乱组织所招募的叛乱人员数量,叛乱组织就将走向衰败并最终消亡,也就是说这一条件组合能够成为国家政府成功平叛的一个充分条件。通过对结合俄罗斯、印度和西班牙等国家治理族群叛乱的经验和教训的分析,进一步证实了以上观点。     

1999年以来印尼马鲁古地区民族分离运动探析

作为一个多元民族与多元宗教的岛屿国家,印度尼西亚民族分离运动问题十分突出。本文阐述1999年以来印尼马鲁古地区民族分离运动产生和发展的过程,并试图探究其产生的原因。随着印尼地区自治的逐步实施以及全国地方直接选举的逐步实行,在民主化改革的背景之下,印度尼西亚的民族分离运动问题将面临一个新的前景。     

Hashim,Ahmed S. Insurgency and Counter-insurgency in Iraq

The paper argues that violent Uighur separatism and terrorism conforms in a number of important respects to the human security theory of terrorism, particularly in the realm of political and civil rights. However, it argues that impetus has been given to the various separatist organisations in the region by the development of interconnections between the largely internal aspects of China's policy of integration in the region and the wider Central and South Asian dynamic of Islamic radicalism since 1990.     

Non-extremist Outbidding: Muslim Leadership in Majoritarian India

How do parties representing minorities survive and expand at a time of majoritarian nationalism? Influential accounts suggest that the rise of majoritarianism should give rise to corresponding extremist outbidding in minority parties. Through a detailed case study of an Indian Muslim party in an era of Hindu majoritarianism, this article elaborates a new notion of non-extremist outbidding. It argues that outbidding need not imply appeals that are extremist in the sense that they are exclusionary, or religious, or intransigent. The agency of leaders, relatively neglected, plays a key role in determining the behavior of ethnic parties.     

奈保尔：后殖民时代的印度书写——“殖民与后殖民文学中的印度书写”研究系列之三

奈保尔曾经三次到印度进行文化寻根,对于印度文明自有比较独特的观察和论述.他的印度叙事与殖民文学时期西方人的印度书写存在着暗合之处.本文即以后殖民理论为方法,对于奈保尔的印度书写进行分析对比,找寻殖民文学与后殖民书写中的学理关联.     

印度地方政党及其政治影响

印度的地方政党总体上有种族民族主义政党、教派主义政党和种姓政党三大类型。它们的产生与独立以来社会阶级结构和种姓结构的变化有关,是国大党高度集权体制催生的地方主义兴起的产物。它打破了传统的权力平衡,改变了人民院的权力结构,也使得印度的政党政治走向地方化,改变未来联邦—邦的关系模式。     

美国的政党全国代表大会

今年7月26日至29日,美国民主党在波士顿举行全国代表大会;8月30日至9月2日,共和党也将在纽约举行全国代表大会。在总统选举年,美国各政党举行全国代表大会不仅成为美国政治特有的制度之一,也是美国政治文化中一道独特的风景线。     

Political representation in India: Enlarging the perspective

ABSTRACT

Democratic theory has recently been marked by a renewed interest in political representation that is manifest in, and proceeds from, a series of theoretical works that radically open up the concept of representation. This introductory article briefly presents some of the key theoretical propositions that are brought forward by this body of literature, but also by anthropological works on South Asia, namely (i) the intrinsic plurality of the meanings and forms of political representation; (ii) the centrality and pervasiveness of representation processes in political life; and (iii) the constructivist dimension of political representation. As I introduce the four papers in this Special Issue, which collectively demonstrate the heuristic value of an engagement with such debates to understand contemporary Indian politics, I insist that what is at stake is not so much a “crisis” of political representation as a series of events and evolutions that question received knowledge about political representation in India.     

美国对外战略再思考--《抉择:全球统治还是全球领导》介评

当前,美国国内围绕国家安全问题正在展开独立建国以来的第三次大辩论。如果说此前诸多对布什政府对外政策持批评态度的人,一直未能提出一套有说服力的主张进而扬起一面大旗的话,那么,2004年3月出版的由美国前总统国家安全事务助理布热津斯基所著的《抉择:全球统治还是全球领导》一书显然对他们大有助益。布氏在书中从六个方面阐述了其美国对外战略再思考后的基本观点。     

Leadership in the WTO: Brazil,India and the Doha development agenda

The Doha round of multilateral negotiations has witnessed the relocation of Southern powers towards the core of the World Trade Organization (WTO) decision-making structure. Brazil and India are the only developing countries that have participated consistently in all major ministerial phases of the Doha round between 2001 and 2008. Their consolidation as trading powers cannot be attributed solely to their status as emerging economies. Their projected legitimacy as representatives of the global South has operated as a catalyst in facilitating their relocation. In various phases of negotiations, however, Brazil and India have refrained from playing a proactive role in driving negotiations forward. Their defensive stance has raised questions about the two countries' prospects for systemic leadership in world trade. In explaining this condition, this article will argue that Brazilian and Indian trade diplomacy is consistently directed towards maintaining broad bases of followership. Brazil and India are disposed to exercise assertive leadership only when that accommodates the expectations and preferences of their followership in the global South. Their preoccupation with constantly reasserting their Third World image often renders blocking agreement the preferable strategy to avoid paying a high price in terms of legitimacy.     

Political leadership at state level in India: Continuity and change

ABSTRACT

Possible explanations are discussed in this article for the paucity of studies regarding political leadership, especially at the state level, in a well-functioning electoral democracy such as India with many parties and leaders. The article argues that such studies can be useful in making sense of the political and economic changes/shifts and developments of a particular state over a period that may have national impact. The article further argues that there has been a perceptible shift not only in terms of social composition but also in the “language” of politics used by the emergent generation of political leaders cutting across the party lines. The change has coincided with the rise of state-level parties and leaders in the post-Congress era followed by the ascendance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).     

Useful Knowledge: Snouck Hurgronje and Islamic Insurgency in Aceh

Christiaan Snouck Hurgronje (1858-1936), a Dutch scholar of Islam, served as a “military anthropologist” during the Aceh war in the Dutch East Indies. The Acehnese fighters viewed their anti-colonial struggle against the Dutch as a jihad, construing themselves religious martyrs fighting “infidel invaders,” and carrying out suicide attacks with a machete or dagger. To combat this insurgency Snouck Hurgronje, one of the first Westerners to visit Mecca and author of many books on Islam, developed the so-called “Aceh method,” which became the basis of modern Dutch counterinsurgency strategy. This article addresses the question: what can we learn from the life and times of Snouck Hurgronje?     

美印之间的反恐合作

印度与美国的反恐合作在“9·11”之后有了明显加强,双方在军事行动、联合军演、信息情报、法律制度等各个领域的合作得到全面提升。其原因除了同为恐怖主义的受害国外,还有进一步提升两国关系和制衡中国、打压巴基斯坦的企图。但两国的合作关系也将受美国与巴基斯坦的反恐合作、印度与伊朗合作关系以及美印之间固有的信任危机、法律差异等因素的制约。印美深化反恐合作的道路并非平坦无阻。     

It Is Not Necessary to Follow U.S. Leadership

The South China Sea dispute has a long history.Regardless of the principles set out by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea(DOC) signed by the foreign ministers of China and ASEAN member countries on November 4th,2002,some countries have     

金融危机与美国经济霸权:历史与政治的解读

对于当前金融危机的成因及其对美国经济霸权的影响,国际、国内意见纷呈.本文试图以历史和政治视角,从解剖实力与霸权这对概念入手,分析美经济霸权的现状和前景.文章从时空条件、发展空间、国际信誉、支配渠道、军事拉动等五方面进行论证,认为此次金融危机是冷战后美各种矛盾累积并发的结果,美经济霸权陷入某种"结构性衰弱".但因其经济实力尤其是综合国力依然强劲,断言美从此走向衰落还为时尚早,美未来命运很大程度上取决于奥巴马变革.     

Insurgency theory and the conflict in Algeria: A theoretical analysis

In the early nineties it was widely feared that Algeria was on the verge of an Islamic revolution. These fears proved to be unfounded. This article seeks to explain the failure of the insurgency to topple the current government through the use of three models of successful insurgency movements: urban insurrection, peasant‐based guerrilla warfare and focoism. Analysis shows that the first two of these models cannot be applied to the situation in Algeria because of the nature of the Algerian topography, the lack of foreign sanctuaries for the insurgents and the authoritarian nature of the Algerian regime. The single success of the third model is a historical anomaly, unlikely to lead to the overthrow of the current Algerian government, but leading to a fourth and final model; urban terror. It is the clandestine nature of this fourth model which provides for the longevity of the current insurgency, yet because of its inability to meaningfully challenge the state, gain recruits, and maintain centralized control over the movement, the insurgency degenerates, perpetrating the seemingly senseless acts of violence currently occurring in Algeria today, the natural aftermath of a failed insurgency.     

The Nonlinear Effect of Information on Political Attention: Media Storms and U.S. Congressional Hearings

Agenda-setting scholars have claimed that the typical punctuated pattern of governmental attention is a consequence of disproportionate information processing. Yet these claims remain unsubstantiated. We tackle this challenge by considering mass media coverage as a source of information for political actors and by examining the relationship between preceding media information and subsequent governmental attention. Employing data capturing U.S. media attention and congressional hearings (1996–2006), we find that the effects of media attention on congressional attention are conditioned by the presence of “media storms”—sudden and large surges in media attention to a given topic. A one-story increase in media attention has a greater effect on congressional attention in the context of a media storm, since media storms surpass a key threshold for catching policymakers’ attention. We find evidence that the influence of media attention on political attention is nonlinear; agenda-setting operates differently when the media are in storm mode.     

Recent Political Developments in India and Their Effects

In March 2017,Narendra Modi led his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to victory in state elections,among which he gained parliamentary election of Uttar Pradesh (state in northern India),known as the weather vane of Indian elections.Back in 2014,the BJP had already won a simple majority in Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament),bringing an end to more than 30 years of coalition government.Now,the BJP is exhibiting stronger presence as a one-party-rule at both federal and local levels,with no counter-balance from the Indian National Congress,local parties,or left wing parties now or in the foreseeable future.This increases the likelihood of Modi's re-election as prime minister in 2019.Obviously,Indian political development is characterized by complexity,accidental factors and intrinsic logic,which will definitely exert great influence on the future of India.